The external market has been very bad in the past few days. The rise in US bond yields has directly led to a drop in Hong Kong stocks, Nikkei index, European stocks and US stocks, and the crypto market has basically consolidated at this position. October is actually a relatively friendly month, but the US economy has recovered very well, which has given the Federal Reserve the capital to scare the capital market. It may be dragged down in the short term, but I tend to be bullish in October-December as a whole. Although I am optimistic about the market from October to December, I think it is too early for the market to turn bullish at present. At least the short-term turn to bullish will depend on Friday's non-agricultural data. Yes, I am talking about a short-term turn to bullish, but after this period of bullish market ends, there will definitely be a wave of deep adjustments waiting for everyone.
The market unanimously believes that the bull market has started. What do you think?
I saw many KOLs shouting "Niu Chu" at this position, but I don't agree. You should know that most of the current trading volume providers are from the European and American trading areas, and the Asian trading area is still in a sluggish trading situation. In addition, the factors that stabilize the market at present also need to consider the options market. At 16:00 on Friday afternoon, there were about 4 billion US dollars of options for delivery (data provided by Teacher Ni), and the options market is also bullish, so maintaining the market from falling is the core. This situation has not never happened before. The previous time below 29,000, several declines were covered. When everyone thought it was a bottom, the market broke through to around 24,800 overnight. No one covered it below, and the main institutions broke through it when they sold some goods. The recent situation of no decline below cannot rule out this possibility. If the large-scale delivery of the options market ends today, and the non-agricultural data tonight is negative data, guess whether the recent support of 27,000 can be maintained?
Therefore, it is better to be calm when judging the market trend, and do not rely on your own imagination to guess. Even if today's non-agricultural data is good for the market, the bull market is temporary. As long as there is no clear hot sector in the market to attract funds to enter the market and attract institutions to enter the market, or even as long as the Asian market is still such a dead water, it is difficult to talk about the start of the bull market in the market. Many people say that the start of the bull market is to make everyone ignore it and start it inadvertently. For this conjecture, I can only say that it is a bit too fantasy. Conspiracy theories are not used in this way. Many people always say that institutions will pull up a bull market, but why? If there are no large number of market hot spots and not enough newcomers entering the market, will the upper trapped retail investors be forced to sell for charity? Simply pull it up by yourself, 1,000 points, 2,000 points, 5,000 points are all fine, but if there are more, don't consider the market selling pressure? Not everyone will think that the rise is the return of the bull market without thinking FOMO. Many people who play contracts should really learn from friends who do spot trading. Friends who play contracts are always too impulsive and always dominated by emotions. For a real bull market to start, on the one hand, there must be a hot market to attract enough funds and retail investors to enter the market, and on the other hand, the main players must have enough chips and arbitrage methods to pull up and boost the market.
Recommendations
In terms of contracts, I personally think it is not rational to switch to long positions at the moment, at least not before the big non-farm data tonight. If the big non-farm data is positive, I may wait for the market to pick up volume next Monday before deciding whether to switch to long positions, otherwise I will go short according to the big trend. Of course, we cannot ignore the current rebound momentum, and the best option is to go short on the rebound at a high level.
In terms of spot, the idea is still the same as that of the contract. Before the big non-farm data is released on Friday, I will be bearish first. If the big non-farm data is positive, the market will continue to fluctuate or rise over the weekend or next Monday. In the short term, I will appropriately select a few spot short-term tokens to take advantage of the short-term.
Finally, I would like to say that many people have nothing to analyze in this market, and they just bet on the size. If you have such people around you, please stay away from them, otherwise they will lead you to lose a lot of money. Even gamblers will analyze the gambling psychology and probability problems in the casino, not to mention the investment market. Such people think that there is no need for analysis, but simply these analysis contents are beyond their cognition, which makes them confused, unable to understand, unable to understand, and can only think that it is all bullshit. It's like telling an illiterate how brilliant the culture was in the past, he may think you are a fool, it's better to think about how to make a living by moving bricks and drinking two taels of wine today. People of different frequencies, please stay away from him and don't be led into the ditch.
Trading experience sharing
I would rather not make money than lose money
Perhaps this view is somewhat negative, but it is the most effective way to make a profit in the current situation where contract trading has many drawbacks. For individual investors, not making money and losing money are definitely two different concepts. Although you did not make money, your analysis and judgment are often correct. It is just that you did not dare to stick to your own point of view and did not have enough courage to enter the market, and you lost the opportunity to make a profit again and again, leaving only regret and a little regret. There will be countless opportunities in the future. As long as you are good at summarizing past lessons, you can still maintain a good mentality to make a profit. Losing money proves that your analysis and judgment are wrong, and you should review yourself, but the important thing is that it disrupts your mentality for future trading. When facing a losing certificate of deposit, the first thing you think of is how to avoid the inquiries of family and friends, and the second is the anger at your own stupid behavior, especially when you see your partners making money when you lose money, you will naturally try every means to make up for the loss and regain the profit.
Real trading is difficult for individual investors. Sometimes we often find that it may take a lot of effort to make a profit of 2%, but a loss of 2% can be made in the blink of an eye. Losing money only means losing twice the money, and getting back the profit requires earning twice the money. Losing money itself has made you timid and lost confidence in your decision-making ability. The urgent need for profit makes you blindly act and not calm. In this case, the mentality of gambling will be aggravated, and the possibility of making another mistake will be further increased, and the consequences will be more dangerous. Therefore, it is extremely important for us to not make money rather than lose money, especially when we are not sure about the market. Only by looking at every fluctuation of the market with a normal mind, avoiding greed and panic, not seeking to become a master of buying at the top and buying at the bottom, but only seeking to follow the trend, can we achieve success. Otherwise, it is likely that it will not be long before you join the team of "masters" of buying at the top and selling at the bottom.
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