US DATA JUST WEAKENED THE CASE FOR ANOTHER FED HIKE
Today’s numbers delivered a mixed but notable signal for markets.
ADP private payrolls: +90K in September Forecast: +73K August revised to: +36K
Then came inflation:
Core PCE MoM: +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Core PCE YoY: +3.0% vs +3.3% expected
The inflation print looks even softer after a methodology change affecting investment advisory fees, software and legal services. July’s Core PCE was also revised lower.
But there’s an important caveat: the new methodology can reduce measured inflation because advisory fees rise with portfolio values even when the fee percentage itself doesn’t change.
So today’s picture is unusual:
Jobs stronger than expected + inflation cooler than forecast.
That combination gives the Fed less reason to tighten policy, while potentially supporting risk assets if the trend continues.
The next question is whether upcoming labor and inflation data confirm today’s signal—or reverse it.
Does this change your view on the Fed’s next move?
Fundamental catalysts: $GEOD launched GEO-PULSE $IO reached 15B inference tokens/day on OpenRouter $LIT saw Bitwise’s first Lighter staking ETP listed on Xetra $INJ activated its Meridian upgrade $AVAX cut unbonding from 14 days to 48 hours $AERO locked its Dromos launch for October 21 $HNT added a 23-hospital health system moving 145 TB/week
Market snapshot:
Stablecoin cap: $301B Altcoin dominance: 42% Fear & Greed: 69
Meanwhile, institutional infrastructure kept expanding across Quant, Zcash, NEAR, Robinhood Chain, Circle’s Arc and tokenized assets.
September also brought major catalysts and setbacks — from the Fed hike and CLARITY Act vote to the Bitget hack and Arc’s sharp post-launch activity slowdown.
October is next. Which altcoin are you watching most closely? 👀
$BTC What changes if price finally clears the level buyers have been defending?
LONG $BTC
Two scenarios from here: The vertical impulse into 84,550 either leads to an immediate rejection or offers a clean retest. My preferred path is the pullback.
$PHA Aggressive reversal swept through the short ceiling as buyers reclaimed key levels.
$PHA position: In at 0.06110. Now 0.08358. TP status: TP1 banked at 0.05927 before reversal. Risk: Trailing stop triggered above 0.06450. Thesis invalidated.