mj19121986

India’s central bank drew in dollars over recent months to bolster foreign-exchange reserves and defend the rupee, and the stronger-than-expected inflow is now adding to the case for a more hawkish monetary policy stance, according to Bloomberg.

I was watching the charts and Bitcoin jumped fast. Within minutes of a big US inflation report, it went above $85,000. I want to explain what happened in simple words.

First, what is PCE?

PCE is a number that shows how fast prices are rising in the US. It is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve (the Fed) watches most closely. When prices rise too fast, the Fed can raise interest rates to slow things down.
The numbers surprised people
The report came out this morning, and it was lower than experts expected.
• Yearly PCE inflation was 3.4%, while experts expected 3.7%.
• Core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, was 3.0%, while experts expected 3.3%.
• Core prices rose 0.2% in the month, against a forecast of 0.3%.
So prices are still rising, but more slowly than people feared.

Why did Bitcoin care?

Think of it this way. Higher interest rates make safe things, like government bonds, look better. That pulls money away from risky things, like Bitcoin. Lower rate fears do the opposite.

After the report, the chance of an October Fed rate hike fell to about 35%. The Fed already raised rates by 0.25 percentage points earlier this month, so traders were nervous about another hike.
Bond yields also dipped a little. The 10-year yield fell from about 5.234% to about 5.203%. That took a bit of pressure off Bitcoin.

What did the price do?

Bitcoin hit a high of $85,598.94. Before the report, it was trading around $83,000 to $84,000. More than $75 million of short bets were wiped out within an hour. A short is a bet that the price will fall. When the price rises instead, those traders are forced to buy back, and that pushes the price up even more.

But here is the honest part

The move did not hold. Bitcoin gave back some gains and settled near $84,000. I think that is worth knowing.

Also, 3.0% core inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer spending was strong too, and strong spending can keep prices from falling quickly. Some analysts also say a change in how the data is measured helped make the number look cooler.
What I am watching next
• Whether Bitcoin can get back above the $87,000 area.
• Friday's jobs report, the last big data release before the Fed meets.
• Whether the Fed really holds off on another hike.

Today was a good day for Bitcoin. But one report does not change the whole story. I will keep watching the data, and I hope you will too.

#BTC #BTC走势分析