美股投资young

I now feel that the Democrats may be trying to destroy Trump's record.

At the moment, Trump's biggest achievement—one he keeps boasting about—is the AI boom and bull market in stocks during his term. $QQQ $SPY $SOXX

I feel they haven't changed their tune yet, and even if they do in the future, it won't happen that quickly. It would be hard to end things well without achieving their goal.

#美股 #AI #Midterm Elections

When interest rates push higher, small companies with high betas that borrow to build computing capacity often take the hardest hit. Once the trend breaks, money doesn’t flow back the way it came.

Short-term bets get even shorter, and leverage hurts more.

Rising interest rates do two things at once. First, they discount future cash flows more heavily. The farther out and more uncertain the cash flows are—and the more a company relies on telling a good story—the deeper its valuation gets cut. Second, they immediately raise the cost of borrowing. Businesses like emerging cloud providers often raise money to buy GPUs and then lease them to others, leaving a mismatch between debt maturities and how quickly their assets can be turned into cash. When rates rise, interest eats into profits first, then refinancing windows narrow. Once the stock-price trend breaks, equity financing dries up, lenders demand more, and customers start to hesitate—all three doors shut at once. You could see this structure in 2022: from its 2021 peak to its 2022 low, $SOXX fell about 46% at the close, $NVDA fell about 66%, while growth baskets that relied more on a story and had less free cash flow fell even harder: the ARK Innovation ETF lost more than 75% over the same period. Cash-rich leaders can at least decide for themselves whether to buy back shares or slow spending, and they have the support of their weight in the index. Smaller high-beta names have no such cushion, and when they fall, there’s less reason for anyone to scoop them up.

When the trend breaks, buyers return first to companies that can survive, repay their debt, and make it into an index.

Small-cap stocks have to wait for credit spreads to narrow again, refinancing windows to reopen, and orders to be repriced. That process is often much slower than a technical rebound in the share price. Many people think that after a deep enough fall, buyers will naturally step in. But when the trend actually breaks, the order book can look as if there are no buyers at all. A small company whose momentum has already been broken doesn’t automatically become a quality asset just because it has fallen a lot.

So what you need to watch is the underlying structure: whether 10-year Treasury yields and real interest rates are rising; whether high-yield credit spreads are suddenly widening; the burden of interest payments and the schedule of refinancing dates; whether orders are overly concentrated among a handful of cloud providers; and whether capital spending is funded by operating cash flow or by continually borrowing to repay old debt. These signal trouble earlier than any chart pattern suggesting a rebound.

You can consider scaling into leading companies in stages. For smaller, highly leveraged computing-power companies, once the trend breaks, don’t bet on an immediate turnaround with short-dated options—much less pile on leverage and go all in. Being bullish doesn’t mean holding on no matter what. Size your position to match the volatility you can tolerate. No matter how compelling the story, it can’t fill the hole left by a drawdown.

#美联储 #高beta #ComputingPower

NMB's: October CPI came in hot, and Monday's rebound was immediately doused with cold water.

Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%, stuck at that pace for the third month in a row.

That's a bit lower than September's 0.6%, but the market isn't buying it. It's focused on core inflation not cooling. Housing rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of this month's increase all by itself; energy rose 0.7%, and food 0.5%. There was no official year-over-year figure this time: the government shutdown last October meant the BLS didn't collect the comparison data.

In the minute after the data came out, futures initially jumped, then plunged.

As of 08:33 ET, S&P futures were at 7537, about 0.5% below Monday's settlement, and Nasdaq futures were at 27668, down about 1.2%. Semiconductors looked the worst: at 08:43 premarket, $NVDA was around $175.1, $MU around $709, and $SOXX around $142.5, down 2%, 3.3%, and 2.9%, respectively. The dollar index surged to around 102.

The real focus is interest rates. CNBC reported that after the release, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.938% and the 2-year to around 4.70%—up more than 15 basis points in a day. On October 28, the 10-year yield closed near 5.05%. It had finally retreated to 4.86% by Monday, but one CPI report pushed it right back toward the 5% mark.

So forget about rate cuts in December. According to CNBC's account of FedWatch, the market was already assigning a high probability to a 25-basis-point hike before the data came out. Before the release, Waller had warned that if core inflation came in at 0.3% or higher again, a 50-basis-point hike in December should be considered. Today's core reading landed right at 0.3%.

Add to that the concerns about data-center approvals and electricity prices after Democrats won both chambers, and those worries haven't faded at all.

I'm still viewing Monday's semiconductor move as a rebound. Until key levels are reclaimed, don't rush to call it a reversal.

Don't chase this selloff, and don't gamble on an intraday reversal with short-dated options. No leverage, no going all in at once—if you're going in, scale in. First, watch whether the 10-year yield actually tests 5%. Being bullish doesn't mean stubbornly holding on.

#CPI #美联储 #TreasuryYields

BlackRock’s BTC ETF has now seen net outflows for 7 trading days in a row.

The last inflows came on October 29. Over these 7 days, IBIT saw a total of $1.66 billion in outflows, while spot BTC ETFs as a whole saw $2.13 billion in outflows. More than three-quarters of that came from IBIT alone.

Monday’s outflow was $201 million, half of Friday’s $412 million. Some people are saying the outflows are slowing, but I really can’t see it.

ETH looks even worse. Spot ETH ETFs saw $185 million in outflows on Monday, the biggest single-day outflow since October 6. ETH/BTC is down more than 2% again today, and 0.028 is looking hard to hold.

Tonight’s CPI came in hot again, lending a little more weight to expectations of a rate hike in December. It’s hard to count on those ETF allocators coming back to add to their positions at a time like this. BTC is still holding at $74,000, but I feel like that’s mostly because the bears haven’t been given any new reasons to act.

Let’s check Tuesday’s flows tomorrow morning. If they’re still negative, that’ll make 8 straight days for IBIT.

#BTC #ETF资金流 #ETH
$BTC $ETH

Within 5 minutes of the CPI release, about $200 million in leveraged long positions got wiped out.

The numbers really did come in hot. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Core has now come in at 0.3% for three straight months. The data was released at 8:30 a.m. ET, 9:30 p.m. Beijing time. Before the release, BTC was still hovering around $74,300, but within minutes it plunged below $73,500, breaking through Monday night's low as well.

Then, a little over an hour later, it climbed back above $74,000.

Honestly, this move wasn't surprising. Even before the release, the probability of a rate hike in December was already around 84%. Waller had pretty much said it all earlier in the day; the CPI data just confirmed what everyone was already thinking. The main casualties were leveraged longs betting the data would come in cool.

But don't rush to call this a relief rally. ETH is still down around 2% over the past 24 hours, dipped below $2,050 intraday, and hit an 11-week low. It's clearly much weaker than BTC. Next, we'll be watching whether the December FOMC raises rates by 25 or 50 bps. Waller said that if core inflation comes in above 0.3%, a 50-bp hike could be considered. If next month's data runs a little hotter, they'll have to follow through on that 😅

For now, I'm watching just two things: whether BTC can hold the $73,500 low, and whether ETFs keep seeing outflows this week.

#CPI #美联储加息 #BTC
$BTC $ETH

Friends who didn't get in, don't panic

This is just an oversold rebound

There will be plenty more chances to get in

$QQQ $SPY $SOXX

#美股 #纳指 #Semiconductors

Now wait for it to stabilize, then buy the dip in U.S. stocks

It’s hard to even go broke

😏

#美股 #抄底 #MarketSentiment

South Korean retail investors net sold 1.34 trillion won today.

And this was the very day the KOSPI rose 4.39%. The market open immediately triggered a buy-side sidecar, and foreign investors turned net buyers for the first time in eight trading days, while retail investors were dumping shares.

SK Hynix closed at 1.212 million won, up 6.69%. It fell 20.16% last week, then clawed back a little over 7% in two days this week. Samsung was down 16% last week and is up 4.74% today.

Put simply, the people who dumped memory stocks last week have come back over the past two days—and they’re rushing back even faster than they left.

On Wall Street, $MU rose 6.25% last night, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 6.85%. The memory-stock sector has bounced back from AI capex worries much faster than I expected. But I’m not convinced this is a reversal. A two-day rebound can’t repair a 20% hole from a single week, and Hynix is still a long way below last week’s high. If tonight’s CPI comes in hot, high-beta stocks like these will be among the first to get sold.

One more thing: BTC was stuck at 74,000 all day. South Korean retail investors used to be among the most aggressive players in crypto, but the money they made selling stocks today doesn’t seem to have flowed into crypto either.

#存储芯片 #美股 #CPI $MU $BTC

Holy crap, Waller came right out today and said a December rate hike is likely, and casually mentioned it could even be 50 bps.

A Fed governor said it himself—and before the CPI report is out.

What’s even crazier is the premarket reaction. Dow futures are still up around 0.3%, S&P futures are slightly higher too, and only Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%. It’s as if everyone’s already accepted it: rate futures put the odds of a 25-bp hike in December at 82% to 84%, up from just 74% a week ago. The 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.58%.

So tonight, what I’ll mainly be watching in the CPI report is whether the market takes that 50-bp possibility seriously. The forecast is 0.3% headline and 0.2% core. If core comes in at 0.3% or even 0.4%, I think the S&P’s biggest one-day rally since April yesterday will probably give back half its gains.

BTC is now just above $74,000, barely moved all day, like it’s waiting for the same number. Honestly, lately it seems more focused on the 2-year yield than anything else—it can’t even be bothered to follow the Nasdaq higher.

9:30 p.m. Beijing time, 8:30 a.m. EST. Less than two hours to go.

#美联储 #CPI #美股 $BTC

Right now, out of every $100 in the entire crypto market, $60 is BTC.

I just checked: BTC has a 60.3% market share, while ETH is down to just 10.3%. The total market cap is $2.47 trillion, and BTC alone accounts for $1.49 trillion.

Over the past 30 days, BTC is down about 11%, ETH nearly 18%, and SOL 24%. When prices fell, money didn’t really flow out—it retreated into BTC. Given this market structure, I honestly don’t see what people are basing all this talk of altseason on.

The Fear & Greed Index is at 32, up from 29 yesterday, but still stuck in fear territory.

October’s CPI comes out in three hours, at 08:30 EST, or 21:30 Beijing time. If the numbers come in hotter than expected, talk of a December rate hike will intensify. My guess is that BTC’s market share will climb a little higher, while altcoins take the first hit.

If the numbers come in cooler, could ETH use the opportunity to claw back some of that 10.3%? I’d really like to see it, but I’m not getting my hopes up.

#BTC市占率 #CPI #加密市场 $BTC $ETH

Cash Buffett spent years piling up during the Buffett era—did Abel start spending it not long after taking over?

Berkshire repurchased $9.6 billion of its own shares in the third quarter, up from just $4.5 billion in the second quarter—more than double. It bought back about $2 billion more in October. That brings the total to around $14.4 billion for the first nine months of the year.

But if you think this means old money is buying the dip, you’re reading too much into it.

Cash and short-term Treasury bills totaled $377.4 billion at the end of the third quarter, more than the $365.5 billion in the second quarter. Subtract the railroad and utilities businesses, then subtract Treasuries payable, and you get roughly $352.3 billion—down just 1.9% quarter over quarter. Put simply, a $9.6 billion buyback is just one shovel out of this mountain.

Operating earnings were $12.7 billion, down 5.8% year over year. Insurance underwriting profit fell from $2.37 billion to $1.35 billion, while insurance investment income also declined from $3.18 billion to $2.73 billion.

The last figure is the one I’ve been watching most closely. With hundreds of billions sitting in short-term Treasuries, investment income fell by more than $400 million over the year—most likely because short-term interest rates are considerably lower than they were at this time last year.

This is also pretty directly related to crypto. BTC has been competing with risk-free rates for money. A company with as much capital as Berkshire would rather buy back its own shares and keep hoarding Treasuries than pile into risk assets. If tonight’s CPI report fuels expectations of a December rate hike, short-term yields could climb again, making life even harder for BTC at $74,800.

#伯克希尔 #美股 #美联储 #BTC
$BTC

Burry shorted Caterpillar this time, made about 4x, then sold 75%.

What he meant in his own words was that the remaining quarter of the position was worth roughly what he’d put in when he first opened it at the end of Q2. He’s pocketed his principal plus profits, and is using the market’s money to keep playing with what’s left.

First, let’s look at how far CAT has fallen. It’s down about 47% from its June high, and fell 10% last week—the worst week in 18 months. Its forward P/E has plunged from nearly 39x at the start of the year to around 19x. A company that sells excavators and generators had been valued as a growth stock because it was seen as an AI data center play. That premium has now been almost entirely wiped out.

I think his decision to cut his position is more worth watching than the short itself.

The hardest thing for a short seller is knowing when to call it quits. Those who make 4x and keep holding on often end up giving it all back. He said the day before that he planned to keep holding, then cut three-quarters of the position the next day. That kind of sudden change actually feels pretty real.

But don’t get the wrong idea: he hasn’t turned bullish. He reduced his semiconductor ETF puts by only 25%, and he still has puts on Palantir, Oracle, and QQQ. He’s still short the AI capex trade.

BTC is tied to the same rope here. Over the past few weeks, as the AI complex sold off, the Nasdaq kept falling, and BTC dropped from above 80,000 to 74,800. ETFs were still seeing outflows last week. If we’re really going to wait for BTC to make an independent move, we’ll probably first have to see when the AI trade catches its breath.

#美股 #AI #Burry #BTC
$CAT $BTC

In 2023, they said this car would sell 250,000 units a year. Last year, it sold 20,237 in the U.S.

Cybertruck is being discontinued. Musk posted it himself last Friday: the Texas factory will likely wind down the production line around mid-2027 to make room to expand Cybercab production.

Honestly, there were signs this was coming. Cybertruck sales in the U.S. were down 48% year over year last year. In Tesla’s third-quarter earnings report this year, “other models” beyond the Model 3 and Model Y accounted for just 8,295 deliveries—and that includes the Model S and X.

The market reaction is pretty interesting: almost nobody cares.

That’s because Tesla’s valuation hasn’t been based on car sales for a long time. Stories like Cybercab and Optimus are what prop up that PE, so whether Cybertruck stays in production has little impact on the model. The problem is that Cybercab has its own issues: in September, the NHTSA opened an investigation into how that batch of roughly 1,000 cars with no steering wheels or pedals met federal safety standards.

A product that can’t sell is making way for one that’s still under regulatory scrutiny.

One more thing: of Tesla’s $787 million in net income for the third quarter, $288 million came from BTC’s paper gains. BTC was still around $83,600 at the end of September; now it’s at $74,800. In the fourth quarter, some of those gains will likely be wiped out. Car sales are struggling, and crypto is falling too. I’m not feeling very optimistic about the profit line in the next earnings report.

#特斯拉 #Cybertruck #美股 #BTC
$TSLA $BTC

There are a little over five hours to go until tonight’s CPI, and BTC options are getting cheaper instead.

The 30-day implied volatility index for BTC was still at 41.2 on Monday morning, but by around noon Beijing time today it had dropped to about 39.4. Looking at the past five years, that’s pretty low.

Put simply, people don’t think anything major will happen tonight, so they can’t be bothered to pay for insurance.

But there’s something a little odd about this CPI report. October’s data only includes month-over-month figures, with no official year-over-year figure, because prices for October last year simply weren’t collected. The forecast is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core. The market is now arguing over whether there’ll be a rate hike in December. Seeing vol fall at a time like this makes me uneasy.

Looking at the batch expiring Friday, 11/13, there are roughly 32,900 BTC in open interest in the options market. The 74,000 puts are down to around 2,160 contracts, from 4,192 on Sunday—about half. Above that, 8,300 calls are stacked at 81,000, with another 5,270 at 84,000.

Downside protection is being pulled, while the upside lottery tickets are still there.

The spot price is around 74,800, and the range from that plunge on Sunday night was 73,400 to 75,500. Some people are watching the 73,400 level; if the daily candle really closes below it, then the weekend bottom doesn’t count.

CPI is at 21:30 Beijing time, 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

#BTC #CPI #Options
$BTC

The batch of CoreWeave bonds issued this June and maturing in 2032 carries a 9.625% coupon. Yields topped 16% last Friday.

WTF, a company hyped as an AI leader, is being priced by the bond market on a par with junk bonds.

Put a few numbers together. At the end of June, total debt including leases was $51.6 billion, up from just $6.28 billion two years ago. The company’s own Q3 interest expense guidance is $860–940 million, while adjusted operating income is only $200–260 million—not even a third of the interest bill. Analysts estimate interest expense of $5.3 billion in 2027 against EBIT of $4.1 billion. Still underwater.

Five-year CDS briefly hit 1,289 bps last Thursday. The stock has fallen more than 40% in a month.

Revenue will probably come in tonight, with consensus around $3.55 billion, up 160% year over year. What I want to hear about is something else: BofA estimates it still needs about $20 billion in funding. Where will it come from, and at what rate? If it issues another tranche of unsecured debt, the coupon will show just how expensive that route is.

Compare that with IREN, which started out as a miner. Under its newly signed five-year contracts, customers prepay 90% of GPU capex, and IREN owns the land, power, and data centers. Same AI cloud business, but the financing foundations are worlds apart.

Crypto folks shouldn’t think this has nothing to do with them. Over the past two years, a lot of mining companies have earned valuation premiums by pivoting to AI compute. If CoreWeave’s financing gets stuck, that premium will probably be the first thing to disappear. BTC is around 74,800 now, and the coins miners hold aren’t enough to support their valuations.

Earnings are due after the market close on 11/10 ET, around 5 a.m. on 11/11 Beijing time.

#CoreWeave #AI算力 #美股 #BTC
$CRWV $BTC

Over the past 30 days, BTC is down 9.9%, ETH 15.2%, and SOL 21.2%.

The ladder is laid out plain as day. The further down you go, the higher the beta and the harder the fall. Just like the textbook—no surprises at all.

SOL is around $86 now, about 70% below its all-time high of $293, and its market cap ranking has dropped to No. 7.

A bunch of people used to say that now SOL has ETFs, institutions would come in and provide a floor. But spot SOL ETFs hold only a little over $1.3 billion in assets altogether, and over the past five trading days they saw net outflows of more than $26 million. That’s not nearly enough to prop anything up.

Honestly, when macro conditions are tightening, altcoins are the layer that gets drained. If tonight’s CPI reading forces a rate hike in December, this ladder will probably drop another rung.

#SOL #BTC #山寨币 $SOL $BTC

Tonight’s CPI report—the market isn’t debating whether rates will be cut anymore, but whether they’ll be hiked in December.

WTF, even I think it sounds absurd, but Reuters’ exact words today were that the Fed is “on course to raise interest rates next month.” This is the last CPI report before the December rate decision.

Forecast: headline monthly rate +0.3%, core +0.2%. September was 0.6% and 0.3%.

There’s another catch. The government shutdown last year meant October’s data wasn’t collected, so the official year-over-year figure won’t be released tonight. Various institutions will publish their own estimates, and FactSet puts headline inflation at around 4%, core at 2.8%. Clickbait headlines will definitely use that 4% figure to scare people. It’s an estimate, so don’t let it throw you off at first glance—the real thing to watch is the core monthly rate.

If core comes in at 0.3% or higher, a December hike is pretty much confirmed. Treasury yields will surge, and we’ll probably give back much of last night’s 2% rally. At 0.2% or lower, the pause narrative could survive for a few more days.

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee specifically mentioned yesterday that the massive buildout of AI data centers is contributing to this bout of inflation. Put simply, the more aggressive the capex, the more expensive electricity, chips, and building materials get—and the harder it is for the Fed to ease. U.S. stocks are feasting on AI while pushing interest rates higher on themselves. Pretty ironic.

At times like this, BTC is basically a rate-sensitive asset, waiting around 74,600. If core comes in at 0.3%, I don’t think it’ll be able to dodge the impact.

8:30 a.m. ET, 9:30 p.m. Beijing time

#美股 #CPI #美联储 $BTC

Strategy sold $284 million of common stock last week, but only $81.9 million went toward buying BTC.

The remaining $188 million was used to buy back its own STRC preferred stock. In other words, less than a third of the money raised went into BTC, while two-thirds went to support the price of its preferred stock.

I’ve been thinking about this for a while. The old playbook was simple: if the stock traded at a premium, issue more shares; use the proceeds to buy crypto; and let those purchases push the stock price higher. Now the proceeds are being used to prop up preferred stock instead, and that cycle is clearly slowing down.

Then there’s the cost basis. 850,364 BTC at an average of 75,456. BTC is now at 74,630, just below its cost basis. The 1,036 BTC it bought last week, at an average of 79,012, were already down more than 5% as soon as it got them.

It does still have $4.9 billion in cash reserves, enough to cover more than three years of preferred stock dividends and interest, so no one is forcing it to sell coins in the short term.

Even the biggest single buyer is starting to put its own preferred stock first. If BTC keeps grinding below 75,000 all week, I’m curious how much will be left in the “crypto purchases” line of next Monday’s 8-K.

#BTC #Strategy #MSTR $MSTR $BTC

If you sold at a loss last Thursday, don’t look at the market tonight—it’ll only make you feel worse.

On November 5, $SOXX plunged 12.15% in a single day, its worst day of the year—worse than the drop on June 5. Before the market closed, the timeline was full of talk about the AI bubble bursting, data center construction being halted, and how it was exactly like 2000.

#美股 #半导体 #AIBubble