TraderM
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MethodAlgo创始人, 加密货币与外汇分析师，X：traderm777 / methodalgo
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Has Bitcoin's bear market ended? The bear is gone, but the bell hasn't rungData as of October 9, 2026, Beijing time. Prices, moving averages, and drawdowns were independently calculated by MethodAlgo using Binance BTCUSDT spot daily candles (UTC close); the October 9 figure is intraday. On-chain metrics are from public reports by Glassnode, BitGo Research, and CryptoQuant; definitions follow the original sources. This article is for market research and risk management education and does not constitute investment advice.
■ Day 368: A checkup
On October 6, 2025, BTC touched $126,200 intraday on Binance spot. Today is day 368 since then. Going by the script from the previous two cycles, BTC should by now have just clawed its way back from a 70–80% crash: on the same day in 2018, it was down 79.5% from its peak; in 2022, it was down 76.3%. This cycle, BTC is around $82,600, just 34.5% below its peak.
Has Bitcoin's bear market ended? The bear is gone, but the bell hasn't rung
Data as of October 9, 2026, Beijing time. Prices, moving averages, and drawdowns were independently calculated by MethodAlgo using Binance BTCUSDT spot daily candles (UTC close); the October 9 figure is intraday. On-chain metrics are from public reports by Glassnode, BitGo Research, and CryptoQuant; definitions follow the original sources. This article is for market research and risk management education and does not constitute investment advice.
■ Day 368: A checkup
On October 6, 2025, BTC touched $126,200 intraday on Binance spot. Today is day 368 since then. Going by the script from the previous two cycles, BTC should by now have just clawed its way back from a 70–80% crash: on the same day in 2018, it was down 79.5% from its peak; in 2022, it was down 76.3%. This cycle, BTC is around $82,600, just 34.5% below its peak.
■ Day 368: A checkup
On October 6, 2025, BTC touched $126,200 intraday on Binance spot. Today is day 368 since then. Going by the script from the previous two cycles, BTC should by now have just clawed its way back from a 70–80% crash: on the same day in 2018, it was down 79.5% from its peak; in 2022, it was down 76.3%. This cycle, BTC is around $82,600, just 34.5% below its peak.
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$SOL, we got the double bottom we want, but would like to buy it when it back to uptrend range to be safe, SOL is good, but its not BTC. our love has conditions 😉
$SOL, we got the double bottom we want, but would like to buy it when it back to uptrend range to be safe, SOL is good, but its not BTC. our love has conditions 😉
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most likely we reach new ATH with the FOMC this month, have your positions ready and wait for the news
most likely we reach new ATH with the FOMC this month, have your positions ready and wait for the news
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It's not about daring or not, it's about having already done it👽
It's not about daring or not, it's about having already done it👽
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Bullish
The United States may sell gold to buy stablecoins, causing the gold held by hostile countries like Russia and China to devalue. Using stablecoins to pay off debts, in no time at all, the 35 trillion debt is settled. Finally, withdraw the liquidity of stablecoins with one click.
Cryptocurrency may experience the largest surge and rug pull in history.
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrency is at a peak of 4 trillion, now around 3.8, the most reliable 10x coin at the moment is actually Bitcoin. Therefore, the trading strategy should only maintain a long position. Control the exposure ratio of altcoins. Floating losses do not need to be managed.
The United States may sell gold to buy stablecoins, causing the gold held by hostile countries like Russia and China to devalue. Using stablecoins to pay off debts, in no time at all, the 35 trillion debt is settled. Finally, withdraw the liquidity of stablecoins with one click.
Cryptocurrency may experience the largest surge and rug pull in history.
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrency is at a peak of 4 trillion, now around 3.8, the most reliable 10x coin at the moment is actually Bitcoin. Therefore, the trading strategy should only maintain a long position. Control the exposure ratio of altcoins. Floating losses do not need to be managed.
Cryptocurrency may experience the largest surge and rug pull in history.
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrency is at a peak of 4 trillion, now around 3.8, the most reliable 10x coin at the moment is actually Bitcoin. Therefore, the trading strategy should only maintain a long position. Control the exposure ratio of altcoins. Floating losses do not need to be managed.
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watching XRP closely, it already breakout, still in retest phase, if new support hold, then can safely be chase.
(personnally think it will go to previous month low @2.72, lets see )
watching XRP closely, it already breakout, still in retest phase, if new support hold, then can safely be chase.
(personnally think it will go to previous month low @2.72, lets see )
(personnally think it will go to previous month low @2.72, lets see )
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SOL was clearly rejected after breaking last week's high, so there should be a pullback, which means there should be new entry opportunities.
SOL was clearly rejected after breaking last week's high, so there should be a pullback, which means there should be new entry opportunities.
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There is a problem with the translation, what I mean is that 200 below sol is equal to 2000 below eth
There is a problem with the translation, what I mean is that 200 below sol is equal to 2000 below eth
TraderM
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SOL under 200, is ETH under 2000
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Because of the new Binance Funding rate mechanism , we are looking at a exchange induced alt season. take a look of important Binance announcement about funding rate in April 25th.
Because of the new Binance Funding rate mechanism , we are looking at a exchange induced alt season. take a look of important Binance announcement about funding rate in April 25th.
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Any max funding in futures, will trigger 1h frequency funding, this makes impulse move last longer and more volatile. and more crazy move like TRB,BLZ,OM,ORCA,ALPACA,AUCTION,VOXEL
Any max funding in futures, will trigger 1h frequency funding, this makes impulse move last longer and more volatile. and more crazy move like TRB,BLZ,OM,ORCA,ALPACA,AUCTION,VOXEL
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Ⓜ️JUST IN: Bloomberg says "Bitcoin acts like a safe haven."
Ⓜ️JUST IN: Bloomberg says "Bitcoin acts like a safe haven."
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Bullish
VOXEL is built from the bottom up, and when it reaches the upper limit and the funding rate but has already taken profit, it will switch hands and reopen because opening a moving robot, if it continues to be bullish, the moving grid brings very little profit, it is better to reopen a new position for the directional robot.
Why not set the upper limit high enough all at once?
Because the risks are different. Maintaining a 2-30% profit-taking range and reassessing whether to re-enter at the point is the least risky, however, the risk of a -2% rate is now lower, and the exchange encourages the contract price to chase the difference with the spot price.
VOXEL is built from the bottom up, and when it reaches the upper limit and the funding rate but has already taken profit, it will switch hands and reopen because opening a moving robot, if it continues to be bullish, the moving grid brings very little profit, it is better to reopen a new position for the directional robot.
Why not set the upper limit high enough all at once?
Because the risks are different. Maintaining a 2-30% profit-taking range and reassessing whether to re-enter at the point is the least risky, however, the risk of a -2% rate is now lower, and the exchange encourages the contract price to chase the difference with the spot price.
Why not set the upper limit high enough all at once?
Because the risks are different. Maintaining a 2-30% profit-taking range and reassessing whether to re-enter at the point is the least risky, however, the risk of a -2% rate is now lower, and the exchange encourages the contract price to chase the difference with the spot price.
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Bullish
The current VOXEL funding rate is settled every 2 hours, which is equivalent to receiving a salary every 2 hours.
The current VOXEL funding rate is settled every 2 hours, which is equivalent to receiving a salary every 2 hours.
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From $108M Fund to $3.5B Rug – The Mantra Meltdown
Just six days after announcing a $108M fund for DeFi and RWA projects, today the Mantra team dumped 90% of circulating $OM, deleted their Telegram, and erased a $3.5B market cap.
Classic crypto exit – fast, silent, brutal
From $108M Fund to $3.5B Rug – The Mantra Meltdown
Just six days after announcing a $108M fund for DeFi and RWA projects, today the Mantra team dumped 90% of circulating $OM, deleted their Telegram, and erased a $3.5B market cap.
Classic crypto exit – fast, silent, brutal
Just six days after announcing a $108M fund for DeFi and RWA projects, today the Mantra team dumped 90% of circulating $OM, deleted their Telegram, and erased a $3.5B market cap.
Classic crypto exit – fast, silent, brutal
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### JUST IN: Gold reaches new all-time high of $3,220.
### JUST IN: Gold reaches new all-time high of $3,220.
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ETH $1100 possible, but 1400 is inarguably good price . even for potential bear market in Q3
ETH $1100 possible, but 1400 is inarguably good price . even for potential bear market in Q3
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