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I looked around and couldn’t find any particularly major negative news in the market...$BTC And yet the market still fell like this. In the early hours, I wanted to remind everyone not to get too excited, in case the market suddenly plunged in the middle of the night. I thought it over, but in the end I didn’t post anything.

Semiconductors are leading the decline again. Spcx and Tsla both reported earnings that met expectations, and their stocks even climbed quite a bit. Right now, it’s a case of investors cashing out after the good news is out, and money flowing out after most people had already bet on those expectations.

Selling pressure is coming from oil prices staying stubbornly high, along with the US midterm elections coming up soon. That’s making this stretch of the market extremely difficult to trade. What we can do now is figure out how to make money in these conditions—or even better, avoid getting involved in this miserable market.

The market is whipping up and down, turning liquidity on both the long and short sides into fuel. But if you ask me, a decline isn’t necessarily a bad thing. At the very least, you can pick up beaten-down shares at lower prices.

$BTC
Looks like there’s no need to liquidate the long positions below.

The 4-hour chart has held above 83K. If the next retest of 83K holds, we can go fully long.

Short positions have been liquidated above 86K.

With ETF net inflows totaling around $550 million over two days and BTC testing a breakout above 83K, market participation in futures is currently high. The target can be set in the 86–87K range.

I’m done shorting. I’m looking for an entry to go long. If 83K holds around the U.S. stock market open tonight, that’ll be a good opportunity to go long.

Originally, I thought SPCX’s earnings report this time would come in below expectations, but after the results came out, they were better than expected. I underestimated Old Ma’s capabilities.

The price rose from 152 to 162. Unfortunately, I didn’t hold on until that point... I had positioned early.
$SPCX
It also got stopped out by the low wick.

First, let’s look at this earnings report. Third-quarter revenue was $14.58 billion, above market expectations. Diluted earnings per share were $0.35, also above the expected $0.13 or so. Revenue grew 161% year over year, net profit was $4.4 billion, and revenue from all three major business lines exceeded expectations.

In other words, Old Ma is expanding SpaceX from a rocket launch and Starlink satellite internet company into an AI computing power, communications, and space infrastructure platform. The AI business is beginning to become an important source of revenue: superintelligence business revenue reached about $7.56 billion, and has already become a key engine driving growth.

Mainly, it is the revenue from the AI business.

Musk released several important signals during the earnings call:

- He plans to significantly expand computing power from 1.7 GW at the end of Q3 2026.

- The company suggested that computing capacity could reach 20 GW or even higher in 2027.

- Capital expenditures in Q4 2026 are expected to reach $35 billion to $40 billion.

- Management gave a very positive outlook for revenue growth in 2027.

This directly led the market to set very high growth expectations.

In addition, a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla was mentioned, but no transaction terms have been reached yet. That is still something for later, just an expectation for everyone.

How will SPCX stock move?

The rapid rise overnight means that people in China who bet on the earnings report early or chased the rally will definitely be holding the position now. What matters now is whether the price can hold above 155 after the surge. If trading volume gradually shrinks, it means some funds are starting to take profits.

On October 22, up to about 1.3 billion SPCX shares are expected to be unlocked and enter circulation.
This comes from the post-IPO phased 180-day lockup arrangement, and it is one of the largest potential single-day share releases recently. But that does not necessarily mean all of it will be sold after the lockup expires.

Old Ma’s thinking is very forward-looking. At present, most people can’t live without the internet or AI. In the future, you can consider dollar-cost averaging into $SPCX . Hold spot positions; contracts are only for swing trading.

I get it now. The reason 83K can't break higher is that the U.S. and Iran are drawing a line.

First they liquidate the shorts, then they liquidate the longs. No one gets away!

$BTC
The market over the past few days has been impossible to stomach. It spent the whole afternoon moving within a $500 range.
Let’s take a closer look at the current market situation.

$BTC ’s liquidation map is nearing a decisive point.

There’s $480 million in short liquidations stacked above 83k.
There’s $456 million in long liquidations stacked below 80k.

That’s more or less a tie. On October 19, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $527 million—their largest single-day inflow since September 22. Clearly, money from the U.S. stock market is flowing into crypto. But market OI is still elevated, which means there’s too much leverage. For prices to move higher or lower, these highly leveraged positions need to be flushed out first.

There are fewer sellers, but real, aggressive buyers haven’t returned in force yet. For now, it looks more like energy is building as the market absorbs sell orders.

On top of that, with so many U.S. companies reporting earnings this month, the market is starting to question whether massive AI capital expenditures can generate enough returns. More people are willing to put their money into crypto.

While I was writing this post, the market kept rising... and as I kept writing, I noticed the shorts at 83k had been liquidated.

If BTC breaks above 83k and holds, don’t short in the short term—go with the trend and go long. If it fails to hold, shorting is still on the table.

U.S. stocks are showing significant divergence right now. Strong stocks remain strong, while weaker stocks continue to follow the Nasdaq.

AI and semiconductors are diverging. There are still opportunities, but you need to buy strong stocks!

In the short term, I still lean somewhat bearish. The Nasdaq rebounded about 1.1% yesterday, and semiconductor stocks also bounced, but most of those gains were wiped out this morning. This suggests yesterday’s rise was more like the first confirmation after an oversold rebound.

1. The 10-year Treasury yield is still around 5.1%. High interest rates are weighing on high-valuation growth stocks.

2. Crude oil has remained elevated, hovering around $100 and continuing to put pressure on the market.

Stocks to watch closely today

$AMZN
Amazon

It rose nearly 5% yesterday without any significant sell-off after opening higher. It is currently still holding around 262. Morgan Stanley just named Amazon a Top Pick and raised its price target to $350. The core rationale is long-term profit growth driven by AWS growth and AI infrastructure. You can buy on a pullback to 262–253; set a stop-loss if it falls below 250.

$INTC
Intel

INTC is currently around 90. After rising yesterday, it pulled back again in premarket trading today. Earnings are due after the market closes on October 22. AI demand and tight chip supplies could lead to improved earnings.

You can keep an eye on it around 90, but I don’t recommend making a big bet on earnings right now. If it gets back above 94–95, that would indicate money is flowing back into INTC. If it falls below 88, get out.

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Please lend me a hand and vote for me!

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The Nasdaq fell about 4.5% last week, while U.S. stocks are up in premarket trading this week.

Clearly, more money is betting on a Nasdaq rebound this week.

Tech stocks are leading gains, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is falling.

This is very important for tech stocks right now.

Oil has also fallen to around $100.

Oil above $100 a barrel adds to inflationary pressure, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates—or even prompting it to raise them. That would push Treasury yields higher and put selling pressure on U.S. stocks.

This is a crucial week.
SpaceX → Tesla → Meta → Lam Research → Texas Instruments → IBM — all of these companies will report earnings.

The market is weighing whether earnings from major tech companies can once again confirm that AI demand remains strong, after last week's steep market drop.

After the U.S. market opens tonight, watch to see whether the Nasdaq rises and key tech stocks such as NVDA and AMD continue to climb on strong volume.

If the 10-year Treasury yield also keeps falling, then you can buy.

$NVDA
$AMD
$AVGO
$MU
$LRCX
$TMS
$INTC

Also, when a stock rises premarket and then gets dumped right after the open, it may mainly be an attempt to lure investors into taking positions. The AI sector already showed clear technical breakdowns last week, and a failed V-shaped rebound often leads to a second leg down.

So the key things to watch are whether the Nasdaq can keep rising after the open, whether oil continues to fall, and whether tech stocks rally on strong volume!

$BTC
80.5K has held as support three times in a row

And each of these selloff-and-bounce periods happened in the middle of the night

The rebound has volume, but the price advance hasn’t been particularly strong

Mainly because of position turnover between bulls and bears, as well as an increase in spot holdings

83K remains a key resistance level for now

If price breaks through on high volume → and holds above it on the 4H/daily chart
then the market will clearly turn stronger
Next targets to watch: 83.5K → 84K → 85K

83K isn’t just ordinary resistance—it’s the dividing line that will determine whether short-term bulls can regain the initiative

Let’s keep waiting. The market’s next directional move is coming soon!

I’ve been watching the market for two days, and it just hasn’t been able to move up. I’ve taken a few short positions and made a profit.

Now: $BTC
There are still two hurdles overhead: 80k and 83k.

There’s buying support around 80k. It doesn’t look like institutional buying; it seems more like passive spot buyers absorbing selling pressure. Along with deleveraging in the futures market, that’s temporarily kept prices stable. U.S. ETFs have recently seen net outflows.

I think we’ll get an answer soon. I’m still bearish!

Now, about:
$INTC
I’m bullish on Intel in the long term, but this isn’t a great time to get in for the short term. Quite a few people bought U.S. stocks on Wednesday, but looking at things now, they’re all deeply underwater.

For INTC, keep a close eye on the 80–75 price range and whether there’s any buying support. If buyers show up at this level, getting back to 100 shouldn’t be a problem. But if it breaks below this range, it could head down to at least 65. I don’t think INTC will fare that badly, though.

Waiting for the right time to buy the dip in U.S. stocks!

$BTC
Last night, price touched the 83k level. I had a limit order placed at 83k, but it didn't get filled.

In the early hours, I added a little to my short on $AAVE . I'm slightly in profit so far.

Lately, I've been shorting coins that are relatively strong. I even wanted to short NEAR just now.

I need to fix this habit: short the weak ones and go long on the strong ones. I've had it backwards these past few days.

Price has been choppy around 80k, and a fair amount of long and short positions has built up in futures open interest.

It's getting close—price will pick a direction soon! There's just one thing you need to know:

If it breaks above 83k and holds, go long. If it can't break through, short it.

If prices fall from here and I could buy only one U.S. stock, Microsoft would be my first choice. $MSFT

1. MSFT has strong evidence of enterprise commercialization and cash return metrics in the materials.
2. The free cash flow yield listed in the materials is around 1.68%, which is relatively good.

The current price isn’t ideal. Personally, I think you could buy in the 480–500 range.

After the CPI report came out last night, $BTC fell along with U.S. stocks. Even $INTC , which I trade frequently, fell below the 100 mark.

Last night, the Nasdaq fell much more sharply than the Dow, especially AI, semiconductor, and high-valuation tech stocks. That’s because the valuations of high-valuation tech stocks depend on earnings growth far into the future. When interest rates rise, the discounted value of future cash flows falls, so high-valuation assets naturally come under pressure first—and fall much harder.

What we need to watch now is whether Treasury yields can come back down, and whether the Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks can stop falling. Many people are bullish on the long-term rise of U.S. stocks. I don’t disagree, but whether you can withstand the market’s selling pressure in the short term is another question.

If short-term Treasury yields keep rising while tech stocks continue to break down, this correction will last longer.

The drop in $BTC was expected; CPI was simply the catalyst that accelerated the market’s decline. Although there was buying interest at the 80k level, unlike the quick rebound after the previous drop, this bounce was caused by short sellers taking profits after the decline. In other words, I personally think this is just a pause in the downtrend! After repeatedly battling around 80–83k, it will continue to fall, with this decline likely reaching at least around 77k.

A few days ago, I was having dinner in Kuala Lumpur and said that @NeoSoulAI was getting close to its TGE. I thought it would be at the end of the month or sometime next month, but I didn’t expect it to happen so soon!

Projects that are able to have their TGE at this stage must have something going for them; otherwise, it would definitely be pushed back. NeoSoul is an AI project in the BNB Chain + 0G ecosystem. Its core product is an AI Agent that trades in real markets, and more and more AI Agents are starting to participate in the market.

The token is called DNA and will officially begin trading on October 16.
Key details:
• Network: BNB Smart Chain (BEP-20)
• Contract: 0xA991F61940095AEA0724ef54077223B048c5CF7b
• Trading pair: DNA/USDT
A total of 130 million tokens will be in circulation at launch (13% of the total supply). Team and investor tokens will not unlock at TGE and will be locked for 12 months.
Binance Alpha listing at 16:00 | OKX listing at 18:00 (UTC+8; subject to exchange announcements)

I estimate that 15–20% of the circulating tokens will be available to trade at launch. Based on that, there shouldn’t be too much selling pressure when it lists, since not many tokens are in people’s hands, and the team’s tokens will be locked for a year. This is one of the projects I’m most bullish on lately! I’ll wait for the selling pressure after launch to settle, then look for a chance to buy in and see if it can kick off another legendary run!

Whoa, I just opened Binance @binancezh and saw that the market interface has been revamped! You can choose what you want to see, and the first thing on the home page is a market briefing. It filters out the noise and even shows Jensen Huang’s holdings—and trading opportunities too! The only thing is, it currently only offers pure candlestick strategies. Hopefully they’ll add some more interesting combinations later 🤔, like charts and volume-price analysis!

You can also create your own strategies! A TradFi favorite! It’s great for traders and even beginners. I highly recommend giving it a try!

BNB Chain catches CEO Richard Teng and the Korean “fucking bitch”

Last Sunday, I thought the market would rise first and then fall.

Although the market has been choppy, overall it’s playing out as expected. $BTC retested the 86–87k range on Monday and then started to weaken. Yesterday, it hit a low of 82.8k, and it still hasn’t managed to hold above 83k.

Long liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled 696 million, and OI fell by 2%. Yesterday essentially completed a round of long deleveraging. BTC is now very close to the 82.5k support level. If it holds, we could still see another rebound; if it breaks below, it will head toward the 80k level I mentioned.

I just noticed that ETFs haven’t seen any significant outflows, so this is mainly driven by retail investors’ actions. Keep an eye on whether OI starts rising again after BTC breaks below 82.5K. If that combination appears, short the rebound, with targets at 81K or even 80K.

But if 82.5k holds + OI keeps falling or stays flat + ETFs continue to see inflows + BTC gets back above 84K, then the bulls can keep the music playing and keep dancing.

$BTC is extremely strong. Any slight pullback gets snapped up by the bulls.

It can't even break below the daily MA7. Long liquidation levels are at 84.7–83.8k, and short liquidation levels are at 87–88k.

After the position reshuffling over the past two days, I think it’ll clear out the shorts above first, then move lower. Although I’m bearish, I’m mainly looking to trade the daily swings, so don’t be stubborn.

I’ll keep watching for shorting opportunities 👀