Tomorrow, markets will once again focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October.
The consensus expects around 65,000 jobs to be added, higher than September’s figure of just 29,000. The question is: Is the US labor market starting to stabilize, or is it still losing momentum?
There are several interesting data points ahead of the NFP release.
- ADP Employment: +86,000, above expectations of 69,000. - JOLTS Job Openings: 7.52 million, higher than expectations of 7.10 million. - Initial Jobless Claims: 194,000, relatively low.
Together, these three indicators suggest that the labor market has not weakened significantly.
Based on this data, my primary forecast is around 65,000 jobs, with a moderate scenario range of approximately 50,000–70,000.
I tend to see the labor market stabilizing rather than undergoing a strong recovery. However, ADP is not a direct representation of NFP. So, there is still room for a result that differs from expectations.
Here are the scenarios I’ll be watching:
1. Above 90K: could strengthen the USD, especially if wage growth remains strong. 2. 50K–80K: relatively close to expectations, so the market reaction may be more limited. 3. Below 40K: could put pressure on the USD, especially if the unemployment rate rises.
These are analytical scenarios, not certainties about price direction.
There are three components I believe should not be overlooked:
- Unemployment Rate: Will it remain at 4.2% or increase? - Average Hourly Earnings: Is wage growth still strong? - Previous Revisions: Have the previous month’s figures been revised significantly?
The combination of these three factors could change how the market interprets the NFP result.
My base case: NFP around 65K, with an initial moderately positive bias toward the USD. However, I won’t take a position immediately based solely on the NFP headline.
I want to see how the DXY and US Treasury Yields react, then look for confirmation through price action and order flow. Because ultimately, it’s not just the numbers that matter, but how the market responds to them.
Morning Market Update | LONG OPPORTUNITY IN $XAUT?
Gold ($XAUT) is starting to react around an important support area after coming under price pressure. But is this rejection enough to open up a long opportunity? In my view, not yet. Market Context During intraday trading, the price was rejected around the key support level at $4.015, which is close to the first-half low of $4.000. This area is worth watching because it could become a line of defense for buyers. Even so, we cannot conclude that selling pressure has ended based on a single price reaction.
Japan’s stock market came under sharp selling pressure yesterday.
The Nikkei 225 fell nearly 5% intraday, with technology and semiconductor stocks among the hardest hit. Advantest, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, and Kioxia all posted significant declines.
Two factors weighed on the market:
Growing concerns about the sustainability of AI valuations and investment.
Preliminary U.S. election results that raised concerns about the potential for stricter AI regulation.
In my view, this is worth watching. Japan is an important player in the global semiconductor supply chain.
When expectations for AI growth start to be questioned, the impact can spread far beyond U.S. technology companies. The AI trade is growing increasingly sensitive to changes in market sentiment.
Is this just a temporary correction, or the beginning of a broader repricing?
Cardano Is Preparing for the Future, But Let's Not Get Ahead of Ourselves
Two interesting developments are being discussed in #Cardano . First, efforts to add support for digital signature technology designed to withstand quantum computing threats. Second, discussions about a shared technical standard for stablecoins. At first glance, both sound like major steps for the Cardano ecosystem. And indeed, their direction is quite interesting to watch. But after looking at the proposals behind this coverage, I think a few things need to be clarified.
Not every market opportunity comes from aggressive price movements. Sometimes, sideways phases can offer room to read and take advantage of price movements in a more measured way. That's what has caught my attention in $ZEC . ZCash Market In intraday trading, the price has formed a ranging base with two fairly clear areas: resistance at $1,300 and support at $1,100. Between these two levels is the POC (Point of Control)—the area with the highest volume activity—around $1,150.
ETHUSDT MARKET UPDATE | Bearish Pressure Remains, Further Downside Still in Play.
$ETH ETH could still see a deeper decline in the near term. Since last Friday, the price has broken below the previous month's Value Area Low (VAL), an early indication that the market is beginning to move away from its previous price equilibrium area. MARKET CONTEXT In the short term, ETH remains in a bearish trend. There are three things I'm watching: The price moved out of the previous month's Value Area after breaking below the VAL last Friday. After the breakdown, the price briefly attempted to re-enter the Value Area.