欧鹏
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The crypto bear market is over, and the market has officially moved out of its bottoming range.
We are now in the retest-and-confirmation phase following the bear market bottom and the first breakout.
ETH’s daily chart fully confirms this structure: the price rose from its lows, and after the moving averages finished tightly converging, they gradually fanned out in a bullish formation, clearly signaling a trend reversal.
A review of historical patterns makes it clear: every bull market begins with the moving averages converging tightly, then fanning out bullishly, before opening the way for a long-term uptrend. A bear market begins when the moving averages fan out bearishly after converging, officially setting a downtrend in motion.
The current retest is still underway. As long as the core trend structure remains intact after the retest is complete, the market will most likely first enter a period of slow, choppy gains. Once the moving averages fan out further in the middle and later stages, alongside a recovery in market sentiment and sustained growth in trading volume, the main rally will accelerate.
Bitcoin is now $BTC 80620 dollars; Ethereum is $ETH 2341 dollars; BNB is 741 dollars; XRP is 1.296 dollars; SOL is 101 dollars. The long-term outlook remains bullish 🚀.
October 25, 2026 23:29
{future}(ETHUSDT)
{future}(BTCUSDT)
The crypto bear market is over, and the market has officially moved out of its bottoming range.
We are now in the retest-and-confirmation phase following the bear market bottom and the first breakout.
ETH’s daily chart fully confirms this structure: the price rose from its lows, and after the moving averages finished tightly converging, they gradually fanned out in a bullish formation, clearly signaling a trend reversal.
A review of historical patterns makes it clear: every bull market begins with the moving averages converging tightly, then fanning out bullishly, before opening the way for a long-term uptrend. A bear market begins when the moving averages fan out bearishly after converging, officially setting a downtrend in motion.
The current retest is still underway. As long as the core trend structure remains intact after the retest is complete, the market will most likely first enter a period of slow, choppy gains. Once the moving averages fan out further in the middle and later stages, alongside a recovery in market sentiment and sustained growth in trading volume, the main rally will accelerate.
Bitcoin is now $BTC 80620 dollars; Ethereum is $ETH 2341 dollars; BNB is 741 dollars; XRP is 1.296 dollars; SOL is 101 dollars. The long-term outlook remains bullish 🚀.
October 25, 2026 23:29
We are now in the retest-and-confirmation phase following the bear market bottom and the first breakout.
ETH’s daily chart fully confirms this structure: the price rose from its lows, and after the moving averages finished tightly converging, they gradually fanned out in a bullish formation, clearly signaling a trend reversal.
A review of historical patterns makes it clear: every bull market begins with the moving averages converging tightly, then fanning out bullishly, before opening the way for a long-term uptrend. A bear market begins when the moving averages fan out bearishly after converging, officially setting a downtrend in motion.
The current retest is still underway. As long as the core trend structure remains intact after the retest is complete, the market will most likely first enter a period of slow, choppy gains. Once the moving averages fan out further in the middle and later stages, alongside a recovery in market sentiment and sustained growth in trading volume, the main rally will accelerate.
Bitcoin is now $BTC 80620 dollars; Ethereum is $ETH 2341 dollars; BNB is 741 dollars; XRP is 1.296 dollars; SOL is 101 dollars. The long-term outlook remains bullish 🚀.
October 25, 2026 23:29
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$MU Micron looks a bit risky ⚠️ Looking at MU’s daily chart, the price is currently around 877, with the moving averages still tangled overhead. Overall, it’s consolidating at elevated levels.
But if it breaks below that level, the chip concentration zone between 880 and 480 is extremely sparse (the area indicated by the purple arrow in the chart). If some major bearish news comes out next week, it could be in real trouble.
{future}(MUUSDT)
$MU Micron looks a bit risky ⚠️ Looking at MU’s daily chart, the price is currently around 877, with the moving averages still tangled overhead. Overall, it’s consolidating at elevated levels.
But if it breaks below that level, the chip concentration zone between 880 and 480 is extremely sparse (the area indicated by the purple arrow in the chart). If some major bearish news comes out next week, it could be in real trouble.
But if it breaks below that level, the chip concentration zone between 880 and 480 is extremely sparse (the area indicated by the purple arrow in the chart). If some major bearish news comes out next week, it could be in real trouble.
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$QQQ A little risky ⚠️ On the daily chart, the price is currently finding temporary support at the EMA120. A series of major events is coming up next week. If the positive news is priced in, the price could stabilize and rebound here, as it did before. But if the negative news is worse than expected, the risk could escalate quickly.
Below the current price is a broad area with sparse trading activity and almost no buying support. If the current support level is decisively broken, the price could quickly fall to the next high-volume area near $630, implying potential downside of nearly 10%.
Keep a close eye on this support line, and manage risk immediately if it breaks.
{future}(QQQUSDT)
{spot}(QQQBUSDT)
$QQQ A little risky ⚠️ On the daily chart, the price is currently finding temporary support at the EMA120. A series of major events is coming up next week. If the positive news is priced in, the price could stabilize and rebound here, as it did before. But if the negative news is worse than expected, the risk could escalate quickly.
Below the current price is a broad area with sparse trading activity and almost no buying support. If the current support level is decisively broken, the price could quickly fall to the next high-volume area near $630, implying potential downside of nearly 10%.
Keep a close eye on this support line, and manage risk immediately if it breaks.
Below the current price is a broad area with sparse trading activity and almost no buying support. If the current support level is decisively broken, the price could quickly fall to the next high-volume area near $630, implying potential downside of nearly 10%.
Keep a close eye on this support line, and manage risk immediately if it breaks.
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For value investors or left-side traders, the approach would be to buy in batches within the strong support zone where positions are densely concentrated below $GOOGL , then hold patiently and let time create room for gains.
But for trend traders, a safer entry point is to wait until the price has formed a base within the support range, positions have changed hands sufficiently, and the moving averages have shifted from being tightly clustered to spreading out in a bullish formation.
Set the stop-loss below the moving averages. With minimal downside risk, this allows you to pursue the greatest possible trend profit.
{future}(GOOGLUSDT)
For value investors or left-side traders, the approach would be to buy in batches within the strong support zone where positions are densely concentrated below $GOOGL , then hold patiently and let time create room for gains.
But for trend traders, a safer entry point is to wait until the price has formed a base within the support range, positions have changed hands sufficiently, and the moving averages have shifted from being tightly clustered to spreading out in a bullish formation.
Set the stop-loss below the moving averages. With minimal downside risk, this allows you to pursue the greatest possible trend profit.
But for trend traders, a safer entry point is to wait until the price has formed a base within the support range, positions have changed hands sufficiently, and the moving averages have shifted from being tightly clustered to spreading out in a bullish formation.
Set the stop-loss below the moving averages. With minimal downside risk, this allows you to pursue the greatest possible trend profit.
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Bullish
Looking at the daily chart for $IWM , we can see a few fairly clear patterns:
🟢 The previous major declines almost always formed a bottom and rebounded after roughly two months of consecutive losses. This time, from mid-August to mid-October, the timeframe is also close to two months.
Could it be nearing another rebound? Don’t rush to conclusions—there’s more to consider.
🔵 The previous times IWM staged a genuine rebound from a bottom, they were almost always accompanied by a clear surge in trading volume. So far, we haven’t seen a similar signal.
🟡 The price has now pulled back from its high and found support near the lower edge of the first major high-volume price zone. If it can hold here and rebound next week, that would be encouraging. But if it decisively breaks below this level, it may continue lower to seek support in the next two high-volume price zones.
🔴 Starting next week, we also enter a period packed with earnings reports, a Federal Reserve meeting, and the midterm elections, so short-term volatility is likely to increase significantly.
In this environment, my personal view is bullish over the long term, but for the short term, I’d wait and see before acting. I’d consider the next move only once genuinely positive news emerges or a bottoming signal—such as a surge in volume—is confirmed.
{future}(IWMUSDT)
Looking at the daily chart for $IWM , we can see a few fairly clear patterns:
🟢 The previous major declines almost always formed a bottom and rebounded after roughly two months of consecutive losses. This time, from mid-August to mid-October, the timeframe is also close to two months.
Could it be nearing another rebound? Don’t rush to conclusions—there’s more to consider.
🔵 The previous times IWM staged a genuine rebound from a bottom, they were almost always accompanied by a clear surge in trading volume. So far, we haven’t seen a similar signal.
🟡 The price has now pulled back from its high and found support near the lower edge of the first major high-volume price zone. If it can hold here and rebound next week, that would be encouraging. But if it decisively breaks below this level, it may continue lower to seek support in the next two high-volume price zones.
🔴 Starting next week, we also enter a period packed with earnings reports, a Federal Reserve meeting, and the midterm elections, so short-term volatility is likely to increase significantly.
In this environment, my personal view is bullish over the long term, but for the short term, I’d wait and see before acting. I’d consider the next move only once genuinely positive news emerges or a bottoming signal—such as a surge in volume—is confirmed.
🟢 The previous major declines almost always formed a bottom and rebounded after roughly two months of consecutive losses. This time, from mid-August to mid-October, the timeframe is also close to two months.
Could it be nearing another rebound? Don’t rush to conclusions—there’s more to consider.
🔵 The previous times IWM staged a genuine rebound from a bottom, they were almost always accompanied by a clear surge in trading volume. So far, we haven’t seen a similar signal.
🟡 The price has now pulled back from its high and found support near the lower edge of the first major high-volume price zone. If it can hold here and rebound next week, that would be encouraging. But if it decisively breaks below this level, it may continue lower to seek support in the next two high-volume price zones.
🔴 Starting next week, we also enter a period packed with earnings reports, a Federal Reserve meeting, and the midterm elections, so short-term volatility is likely to increase significantly.
In this environment, my personal view is bullish over the long term, but for the short term, I’d wait and see before acting. I’d consider the next move only once genuinely positive news emerges or a bottoming signal—such as a surge in volume—is confirmed.
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QQQ’s returns over the past 5 years (total return, including dividends). After reading this, you’ll understand why you should choose an asset with a long-term upward trend:
2021: +27.4%
2022: -32.6%
2023: +54.9%
2024: +25.6%
2025: +20.8%
2026 year to date (as of around October 23): +15.1%
For $QQQ and $SPY , as long as you’re patient, every dip is an opportunity.
{future}(QQQUSDT)
{spot}(QQQBUSDT)
{future}(SPYUSDT)
QQQ’s returns over the past 5 years (total return, including dividends). After reading this, you’ll understand why you should choose an asset with a long-term upward trend:
2021: +27.4%
2022: -32.6%
2023: +54.9%
2024: +25.6%
2025: +20.8%
2026 year to date (as of around October 23): +15.1%
For $QQQ and $SPY , as long as you’re patient, every dip is an opportunity.
2021: +27.4%
2022: -32.6%
2023: +54.9%
2024: +25.6%
2025: +20.8%
2026 year to date (as of around October 23): +15.1%
For $QQQ and $SPY , as long as you’re patient, every dip is an opportunity.
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Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announces its interest rate decision;
Thursday 02:30, Fed Chair Warsh holds a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, the U.S. advance estimate of third-quarter annualized real GDP, the U.S. annual core PCE price index for September, the U.S. annual PCE price index for September, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24, and U.S. personal spending for September;
Thursday 21:15, the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision;
Thursday 21:45, ECB President Lagarde holds a press conference;
Friday, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a press conference.
Next week will be the busiest week of the current U.S. earnings season, with about one-third of S&P 500 companies set to report results.
After the U.S. market closes next Wednesday, Microsoft $MSFT and Alphabet will be the first to report, followed by Amazon $AMZN after the close on Thursday.
Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announces its interest rate decision;
Thursday 02:30, Fed Chair Warsh holds a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, the U.S. advance estimate of third-quarter annualized real GDP, the U.S. annual core PCE price index for September, the U.S. annual PCE price index for September, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24, and U.S. personal spending for September;
Thursday 21:15, the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision;
Thursday 21:45, ECB President Lagarde holds a press conference;
Friday, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a press conference.
Next week will be the busiest week of the current U.S. earnings season, with about one-third of S&P 500 companies set to report results.
After the U.S. market closes next Wednesday, Microsoft $MSFT and Alphabet will be the first to report, followed by Amazon $AMZN after the close on Thursday.
Thursday 02:30, Fed Chair Warsh holds a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, the U.S. advance estimate of third-quarter annualized real GDP, the U.S. annual core PCE price index for September, the U.S. annual PCE price index for September, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24, and U.S. personal spending for September;
Thursday 21:15, the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision;
Thursday 21:45, ECB President Lagarde holds a press conference;
Friday, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a press conference.
Next week will be the busiest week of the current U.S. earnings season, with about one-third of S&P 500 companies set to report results.
After the U.S. market closes next Wednesday, Microsoft $MSFT and Alphabet will be the first to report, followed by Amazon $AMZN after the close on Thursday.
欧鹏
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$NBIS has fallen for several consecutive sessions to around $158, showing clear signs of short-term oversold conditions. The daily trading-volume profile shows relatively little support below the current price, so if it continues to decline, the drop could accelerate.
If there is no positive catalyst next week and the price fails to rebound convincingly, it may retest the next high-volume area (around $120–$80) for support. A larger concentration of trading volume has accumulated in that zone, which could theoretically provide some buying support.
With a packed earnings calendar and a Federal Reserve decision next week, volatility is likely to remain high. In the short term, the key level to watch is around $158: can the price find a floor there? If it continues to fall below that level, there could be further downside.
What do you think?
If there is no positive catalyst next week and the price fails to rebound convincingly, it may retest the next high-volume area (around $120–$80) for support. A larger concentration of trading volume has accumulated in that zone, which could theoretically provide some buying support.
With a packed earnings calendar and a Federal Reserve decision next week, volatility is likely to remain high. In the short term, the key level to watch is around $158: can the price find a floor there? If it continues to fall below that level, there could be further downside.
What do you think?
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$NBIS has fallen for several consecutive sessions to around $158, showing clear signs of short-term oversold conditions. The daily trading-volume profile shows relatively little support below the current price, so if it continues to decline, the drop could accelerate.
If there is no positive catalyst next week and the price fails to rebound convincingly, it may retest the next high-volume area (around $120–$80) for support. A larger concentration of trading volume has accumulated in that zone, which could theoretically provide some buying support.
With a packed earnings calendar and a Federal Reserve decision next week, volatility is likely to remain high. In the short term, the key level to watch is around $158: can the price find a floor there? If it continues to fall below that level, there could be further downside.
What do you think?
$NBIS has fallen for several consecutive sessions to around $158, showing clear signs of short-term oversold conditions. The daily trading-volume profile shows relatively little support below the current price, so if it continues to decline, the drop could accelerate.
If there is no positive catalyst next week and the price fails to rebound convincingly, it may retest the next high-volume area (around $120–$80) for support. A larger concentration of trading volume has accumulated in that zone, which could theoretically provide some buying support.
With a packed earnings calendar and a Federal Reserve decision next week, volatility is likely to remain high. In the short term, the key level to watch is around $158: can the price find a floor there? If it continues to fall below that level, there could be further downside.
What do you think?
If there is no positive catalyst next week and the price fails to rebound convincingly, it may retest the next high-volume area (around $120–$80) for support. A larger concentration of trading volume has accumulated in that zone, which could theoretically provide some buying support.
With a packed earnings calendar and a Federal Reserve decision next week, volatility is likely to remain high. In the short term, the key level to watch is around $158: can the price find a floor there? If it continues to fall below that level, there could be further downside.
What do you think?
1
1
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Over the past 31 years, the S&P 500 $SPY has had only three significant pullbacks in November:
November 2000 (about -8%): At the height of the dot-com bubble bursting. After peaking in March, the Nasdaq continued to plunge, and tech companies frequently issued profit warnings (such as Gateway and Altera). Signs of an economic slowdown were clear, and political uncertainty over the disputed Florida vote count in the 2000 U.S. presidential election (Bush vs. Gore) made market sentiment extremely pessimistic.
November 2007 (about -4.4%): The early stages of the subprime crisis. The housing market collapsed and credit markets froze. Financial institutions such as Citi and Merrill Lynch took massive write-downs on subprime mortgage-related losses, sending financial stocks sharply lower. Oil prices neared $100, and markets began to worry about a recession. The Federal Reserve had cut interest rates, but its cautious signals triggered further selling.
November 2008 (about -7.5%): The worst phase of the financial crisis. After Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September, markets continued to free-fall, having already plunged more than 16% in October. In November, the Big Three automakers (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) failed to secure a bailout, Citigroup ran into trouble, and retail sales and employment data were dismal. Fears of a deep recession intensified, and the S&P 500 hit a multi-year low.
There are five trading days left until November 2026. Historically, November has been very favorable for the bulls. Let’s hope it’s the same this time. GM☀️
{future}(SPYUSDT)
{spot}(SPYBUSDT)
Over the past 31 years, the S&P 500 $SPY has had only three significant pullbacks in November:
November 2000 (about -8%): At the height of the dot-com bubble bursting. After peaking in March, the Nasdaq continued to plunge, and tech companies frequently issued profit warnings (such as Gateway and Altera). Signs of an economic slowdown were clear, and political uncertainty over the disputed Florida vote count in the 2000 U.S. presidential election (Bush vs. Gore) made market sentiment extremely pessimistic.
November 2007 (about -4.4%): The early stages of the subprime crisis. The housing market collapsed and credit markets froze. Financial institutions such as Citi and Merrill Lynch took massive write-downs on subprime mortgage-related losses, sending financial stocks sharply lower. Oil prices neared $100, and markets began to worry about a recession. The Federal Reserve had cut interest rates, but its cautious signals triggered further selling.
November 2008 (about -7.5%): The worst phase of the financial crisis. After Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September, markets continued to free-fall, having already plunged more than 16% in October. In November, the Big Three automakers (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) failed to secure a bailout, Citigroup ran into trouble, and retail sales and employment data were dismal. Fears of a deep recession intensified, and the S&P 500 hit a multi-year low.
There are five trading days left until November 2026. Historically, November has been very favorable for the bulls. Let’s hope it’s the same this time. GM☀️
November 2000 (about -8%): At the height of the dot-com bubble bursting. After peaking in March, the Nasdaq continued to plunge, and tech companies frequently issued profit warnings (such as Gateway and Altera). Signs of an economic slowdown were clear, and political uncertainty over the disputed Florida vote count in the 2000 U.S. presidential election (Bush vs. Gore) made market sentiment extremely pessimistic.
November 2007 (about -4.4%): The early stages of the subprime crisis. The housing market collapsed and credit markets froze. Financial institutions such as Citi and Merrill Lynch took massive write-downs on subprime mortgage-related losses, sending financial stocks sharply lower. Oil prices neared $100, and markets began to worry about a recession. The Federal Reserve had cut interest rates, but its cautious signals triggered further selling.
November 2008 (about -7.5%): The worst phase of the financial crisis. After Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September, markets continued to free-fall, having already plunged more than 16% in October. In November, the Big Three automakers (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) failed to secure a bailout, Citigroup ran into trouble, and retail sales and employment data were dismal. Fears of a deep recession intensified, and the S&P 500 hit a multi-year low.
There are five trading days left until November 2026. Historically, November has been very favorable for the bulls. Let’s hope it’s the same this time. GM☀️
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$BTC Bitcoin has fallen to $80,000 three times.
Can it hold this time? The nearest support below is $77,000.
Amen~
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Bitcoin has fallen to $80,000 three times.
Can it hold this time? The nearest support below is $77,000.
Amen~
Can it hold this time? The nearest support below is $77,000.
Amen~
1
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Partly True
Micron $MU has fallen to near its 120-day moving average. As you can see from my daily chart, there is relatively little trading volume below the 120-day moving average. If further negative news next week pushes the price below that average, the downside will open up completely, and it could even fall to the next high-volume zone at $480–$330.
Next week is the busiest week of this earnings season: tech giants including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple will report their results one after another. The market will be focused on guidance for AI capital expenditure and whether those investments are delivering returns. The Fed will also announce its interest rate decision. Any worse-than-expected negative news could amplify volatility, making the 120-day moving average a temporary “line in the sand.”
Good news: back above the moving average. Bad news: below the moving average and heading down.
Make your own trading plan, and wait for the price where it has to pass.
{future}(MUUSDT)
{spot}(MUBUSDT)
Micron $MU has fallen to near its 120-day moving average. As you can see from my daily chart, there is relatively little trading volume below the 120-day moving average. If further negative news next week pushes the price below that average, the downside will open up completely, and it could even fall to the next high-volume zone at $480–$330.
Next week is the busiest week of this earnings season: tech giants including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple will report their results one after another. The market will be focused on guidance for AI capital expenditure and whether those investments are delivering returns. The Fed will also announce its interest rate decision. Any worse-than-expected negative news could amplify volatility, making the 120-day moving average a temporary “line in the sand.”
Good news: back above the moving average. Bad news: below the moving average and heading down.
Make your own trading plan, and wait for the price where it has to pass.
Next week is the busiest week of this earnings season: tech giants including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple will report their results one after another. The market will be focused on guidance for AI capital expenditure and whether those investments are delivering returns. The Fed will also announce its interest rate decision. Any worse-than-expected negative news could amplify volatility, making the 120-day moving average a temporary “line in the sand.”
Good news: back above the moving average. Bad news: below the moving average and heading down.
Make your own trading plan, and wait for the price where it has to pass.
1
587
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S&P 500 $SPYB has once again returned to the EMA/MA 120 moving average
Can it hold this time??
The last time it fell below was in March
For long-term holders, every dip is an opportunity to add to their position
This time is no exception
{spot}(SPYBUSDT)
{future}(SPYUSDT)
S&P 500 $SPYB has once again returned to the EMA/MA 120 moving average
Can it hold this time??
The last time it fell below was in March
For long-term holders, every dip is an opportunity to add to their position
This time is no exception
Can it hold this time??
The last time it fell below was in March
For long-term holders, every dip is an opportunity to add to their position
This time is no exception
108
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$INTC Daily chart: Price has continued to pull back from elevated levels and is currently testing the EMA/MA200, the long-term bull-bear dividing line.
As a key support for the broader trend, holding this level means the medium- to long-term upward structure remains intact; if the EMA200 is decisively broken, the trend will weaken further and downside potential will fully open up.
{future}(INTCUSDT)
$INTC Daily chart: Price has continued to pull back from elevated levels and is currently testing the EMA/MA200, the long-term bull-bear dividing line.
As a key support for the broader trend, holding this level means the medium- to long-term upward structure remains intact; if the EMA200 is decisively broken, the trend will weaken further and downside potential will fully open up.
As a key support for the broader trend, holding this level means the medium- to long-term upward structure remains intact; if the EMA200 is decisively broken, the trend will weaken further and downside potential will fully open up.
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Gold $XAU doesn’t need to wait for the Fed to actually cut rates before rebounding. As soon as the market starts to believe that the rate-hiking cycle is nearing its end, gold prices could reverse course ahead of time. The second phase is already underway, and the third may be beginning.
Next, watch three key signals:
① The probability of a Fed rate hike in December: This indicator has fallen from about 90% to 78% in three days. If it drops below 50%, it would mean the market believes the Fed has finished raising rates.
② The 2-year Treasury yield: It currently stands at about 4.69%, well below the post-CPI high of 4.95%. If it continues to decline, that could signal that a turning point is near.
③ Initial jobless claims: This figure is still close to 200,000. If it climbs steadily to 250,000, the Fed’s stance will change.
Gold $XAU doesn’t need to wait for the Fed to actually cut rates before rebounding. As soon as the market starts to believe that the rate-hiking cycle is nearing its end, gold prices could reverse course ahead of time. The second phase is already underway, and the third may be beginning.
Next, watch three key signals:
① The probability of a Fed rate hike in December: This indicator has fallen from about 90% to 78% in three days. If it drops below 50%, it would mean the market believes the Fed has finished raising rates.
② The 2-year Treasury yield: It currently stands at about 4.69%, well below the post-CPI high of 4.95%. If it continues to decline, that could signal that a turning point is near.
③ Initial jobless claims: This figure is still close to 200,000. If it climbs steadily to 250,000, the Fed’s stance will change.
Next, watch three key signals:
① The probability of a Fed rate hike in December: This indicator has fallen from about 90% to 78% in three days. If it drops below 50%, it would mean the market believes the Fed has finished raising rates.
② The 2-year Treasury yield: It currently stands at about 4.69%, well below the post-CPI high of 4.95%. If it continues to decline, that could signal that a turning point is near.
③ Initial jobless claims: This figure is still close to 200,000. If it climbs steadily to 250,000, the Fed’s stance will change.
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- October 27: Israeli election
- October 28: FOMC meeting
- October 28: Google and META earnings reports
- October 29: Amazon and Apple earnings reports
- November 3: U.S. midterm elections
The next 10 days could have a major impact on the stock and crypto markets. Any one of these events could trigger sharp market volatility‼️
Bitcoin $BTC has fallen below the black short-term moving average and found support near the blue mid-term moving average at $80,000. Below that is support from the red long-term moving average at $76,000. As long as these two support levels hold, the long-term uptrend remains intact, and the outlook is still bullish🚀
{future}(BTCUSDT)
- October 27: Israeli election
- October 28: FOMC meeting
- October 28: Google and META earnings reports
- October 29: Amazon and Apple earnings reports
- November 3: U.S. midterm elections
The next 10 days could have a major impact on the stock and crypto markets. Any one of these events could trigger sharp market volatility‼️
Bitcoin $BTC has fallen below the black short-term moving average and found support near the blue mid-term moving average at $80,000. Below that is support from the red long-term moving average at $76,000. As long as these two support levels hold, the long-term uptrend remains intact, and the outlook is still bullish🚀
- October 28: FOMC meeting
- October 28: Google and META earnings reports
- October 29: Amazon and Apple earnings reports
- November 3: U.S. midterm elections
The next 10 days could have a major impact on the stock and crypto markets. Any one of these events could trigger sharp market volatility‼️
Bitcoin $BTC has fallen below the black short-term moving average and found support near the blue mid-term moving average at $80,000. Below that is support from the red long-term moving average at $76,000. As long as these two support levels hold, the long-term uptrend remains intact, and the outlook is still bullish🚀
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Verified
On the weekly chart, silver $XAG has been declining steadily since near its January 2026 high, falling about 55% to date. The current price is around 53.8, below the short- and medium-term trend lines, and is also retesting the red long-term trend line.
The long-term moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, and the price has fallen to the long-term trend line on the weekly chart—a very important support level.
In the short term, the key is whether this level can provide effective support. If the price stops falling here and holds above it, this may be a level worth watching for contrarian traders and value investors. If it breaks below this level, the decline could continue further.
{future}(XAGUSDT)
On the weekly chart, silver $XAG has been declining steadily since near its January 2026 high, falling about 55% to date. The current price is around 53.8, below the short- and medium-term trend lines, and is also retesting the red long-term trend line.
The long-term moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, and the price has fallen to the long-term trend line on the weekly chart—a very important support level.
In the short term, the key is whether this level can provide effective support. If the price stops falling here and holds above it, this may be a level worth watching for contrarian traders and value investors. If it breaks below this level, the decline could continue further.
The long-term moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, and the price has fallen to the long-term trend line on the weekly chart—a very important support level.
In the short term, the key is whether this level can provide effective support. If the price stops falling here and holds above it, this may be a level worth watching for contrarian traders and value investors. If it breaks below this level, the decline could continue further.
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Apple $AAPL market cap: Today $5.07 trillion
Nvidia $NVDA market cap: Today $5.08 trillion
Who will be crowned in 2026? 👑 ❓❓
{future}(AAPLUSDT)
{future}(NVDAUSDT)
Apple $AAPL market cap: Today $5.07 trillion
Nvidia $NVDA market cap: Today $5.08 trillion
Who will be crowned in 2026? 👑 ❓❓
Nvidia $NVDA market cap: Today $5.08 trillion
Who will be crowned in 2026? 👑 ❓❓
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Article
What Information Lies Behind Trading VolumeOpen any market app, and beneath the candlestick chart you’ll see a row of bars of varying heights—trading volume. It’s one of the easiest market indicators to access, and one of the easiest to misinterpret. Today, let’s clarify what trading volume can tell us—and what it can’t.
1. The essence of trading volume: not "popularity," but "disagreement"
Let’s first correct a widely held misconception: high trading volume = high popularity.
Not exactly. High trading volume really means there is a lot of disagreement.
Let’s go back to the essence of a trade: every transaction requires a buyer and a seller. A surge in trading volume means more people are "exchanging views" around this price—bullish traders are buying, while bearish traders are selling. A volume of 10,000 lots means 10,000 lots of shares have changed hands.
What Information Lies Behind Trading Volume
Open any market app, and beneath the candlestick chart you’ll see a row of bars of varying heights—trading volume. It’s one of the easiest market indicators to access, and one of the easiest to misinterpret. Today, let’s clarify what trading volume can tell us—and what it can’t.
1. The essence of trading volume: not "popularity," but "disagreement"
Let’s first correct a widely held misconception: high trading volume = high popularity.
Not exactly. High trading volume really means there is a lot of disagreement.
Let’s go back to the essence of a trade: every transaction requires a buyer and a seller. A surge in trading volume means more people are "exchanging views" around this price—bullish traders are buying, while bearish traders are selling. A volume of 10,000 lots means 10,000 lots of shares have changed hands.
1. The essence of trading volume: not "popularity," but "disagreement"
Let’s first correct a widely held misconception: high trading volume = high popularity.
Not exactly. High trading volume really means there is a lot of disagreement.
Let’s go back to the essence of a trade: every transaction requires a buyer and a seller. A surge in trading volume means more people are "exchanging views" around this price—bullish traders are buying, while bearish traders are selling. A volume of 10,000 lots means 10,000 lots of shares have changed hands.
1
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Spot gold $XAU suffered a sharp sell-off on Thursday, then fell below the $4,000 mark during Asian trading on Friday. The immediate trigger for this plunge was a stock-market sell-off and a spike in the VIX fear index: safe-haven funds flowed into government bonds, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down from 5.15% to 5.01%. The 2-year yield also fell, suggesting traders are scaling back expectations for Fed rate hikes.
Traditionally, lower yields should support gold, but this macroeconomic tailwind has temporarily lost its effect. The main reason is that markets are experiencing an extreme liquidity squeeze: faced with a steep stock-market decline and margin calls, investors have been forced to adopt a “cash is king” strategy, indiscriminately selling assets—including gold, silver, copper, and stocks—to raise liquidity.
This is a short-term shift in the way assets are priced: liquidity concerns are taking precedence over interest-rate dynamics. Once this wave of forced deleveraging subsides, macroeconomic fundamentals will regain their influence over market pricing. At that point, falling Treasury yields will once again reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, likely paving the way for a rebound in gold, whose safe-haven appeal and valuation have been unfairly punished.
{future}(XAUUSDT)
{spot}(XAUTUSDT)
Spot gold $XAU suffered a sharp sell-off on Thursday, then fell below the $4,000 mark during Asian trading on Friday. The immediate trigger for this plunge was a stock-market sell-off and a spike in the VIX fear index: safe-haven funds flowed into government bonds, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down from 5.15% to 5.01%. The 2-year yield also fell, suggesting traders are scaling back expectations for Fed rate hikes.
Traditionally, lower yields should support gold, but this macroeconomic tailwind has temporarily lost its effect. The main reason is that markets are experiencing an extreme liquidity squeeze: faced with a steep stock-market decline and margin calls, investors have been forced to adopt a “cash is king” strategy, indiscriminately selling assets—including gold, silver, copper, and stocks—to raise liquidity.
This is a short-term shift in the way assets are priced: liquidity concerns are taking precedence over interest-rate dynamics. Once this wave of forced deleveraging subsides, macroeconomic fundamentals will regain their influence over market pricing. At that point, falling Treasury yields will once again reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, likely paving the way for a rebound in gold, whose safe-haven appeal and valuation have been unfairly punished.
Traditionally, lower yields should support gold, but this macroeconomic tailwind has temporarily lost its effect. The main reason is that markets are experiencing an extreme liquidity squeeze: faced with a steep stock-market decline and margin calls, investors have been forced to adopt a “cash is king” strategy, indiscriminately selling assets—including gold, silver, copper, and stocks—to raise liquidity.
This is a short-term shift in the way assets are priced: liquidity concerns are taking precedence over interest-rate dynamics. Once this wave of forced deleveraging subsides, macroeconomic fundamentals will regain their influence over market pricing. At that point, falling Treasury yields will once again reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, likely paving the way for a rebound in gold, whose safe-haven appeal and valuation have been unfairly punished.
欧鹏
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Gold $XAU has fallen to around 4,000 and is currently trading near 4,022, testing this key psychological support level. During its previous pullback from the highs, the price was repeatedly held back near the moving averages. It is now trading below several moving averages, indicating a weak short-term structure.
4,000 is an important psychological threshold and a previous high-volume trading area. If the price can find support and stabilize here, it may form a short-term base; if it breaks below this level decisively, there may be further downside. Trading volume has not increased significantly, suggesting that selling pressure is still being absorbed.
4,000 is an important psychological threshold and a previous high-volume trading area. If the price can find support and stabilize here, it may form a short-term base; if it breaks below this level decisively, there may be further downside. Trading volume has not increased significantly, suggesting that selling pressure is still being absorbed.
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Risk assets around the world are broadly under pressure and falling, but Coca-Cola $KO has quietly reached a new high on the daily chart, breaking above its previous peak and currently trading near $95. Structurally, the price has moved above the short-term moving averages and is well above the medium- and long-term moving averages, with a relatively clear bullish alignment.
As a defensive consumer goods stock, KO often shows greater resilience when market risk appetite declines. This new high against the trend suggests that investors are seeking relatively stable safe havens rather than selling across the board.
In the short term, as long as the price holds above the moving averages, the upward structure remains intact. Going forward, the key things to watch are whether volume continues to increase to confirm the breakout and whether broader market sentiment puts further pressure on the stock.
{future}(KOUSDT)
Risk assets around the world are broadly under pressure and falling, but Coca-Cola $KO has quietly reached a new high on the daily chart, breaking above its previous peak and currently trading near $95. Structurally, the price has moved above the short-term moving averages and is well above the medium- and long-term moving averages, with a relatively clear bullish alignment.
As a defensive consumer goods stock, KO often shows greater resilience when market risk appetite declines. This new high against the trend suggests that investors are seeking relatively stable safe havens rather than selling across the board.
In the short term, as long as the price holds above the moving averages, the upward structure remains intact. Going forward, the key things to watch are whether volume continues to increase to confirm the breakout and whether broader market sentiment puts further pressure on the stock.
As a defensive consumer goods stock, KO often shows greater resilience when market risk appetite declines. This new high against the trend suggests that investors are seeking relatively stable safe havens rather than selling across the board.
In the short term, as long as the price holds above the moving averages, the upward structure remains intact. Going forward, the key things to watch are whether volume continues to increase to confirm the breakout and whether broader market sentiment puts further pressure on the stock.
欧鹏
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McDonald’s $MCD continues to rebound 🍔🍔🍔
As I wrote last time, when high-beta tech stocks were sold off amid concerns about CPI and the cost of AI financing, long-declining McDonald’s instead began to stabilize and rebound. After retreating from a high near 335 all the way to around 229, its price had recovered to around 245, showing clear low-beta defensive qualities.
U.S. stocks fell sharply again today, with tech and semiconductor stocks remaining under pressure, while McDonald’s once again proved relatively resilient and even posted a rebound.
On the current daily chart, the price has continued to recover from near its recent low to around 248.70, and the short-term structure is still trying to form a bottom. Although the long-term moving averages continue to fan downward and the price remains below several moving averages, its relative strength on two occasions as market risk appetite has contracted suggests that when high-volatility assets are being repriced, investors are more willing to shift toward defensive consumer stocks with stable cash flows and dividend support.
The area around 248 is a short-term level to watch. If the price can hold there and gradually move closer to the short-term moving averages, the case for this oversold rebound will be stronger. If it falls below the previous low again, we’ll still need to wait for a clearer bottoming signal. After such a prolonged decline, the fact that the stock has begun repeatedly testing the lows itself shows that the market is starting to distinguish between “high-volatility narratives” and “relatively stable cash flows.”
As I wrote last time, when high-beta tech stocks were sold off amid concerns about CPI and the cost of AI financing, long-declining McDonald’s instead began to stabilize and rebound. After retreating from a high near 335 all the way to around 229, its price had recovered to around 245, showing clear low-beta defensive qualities.
U.S. stocks fell sharply again today, with tech and semiconductor stocks remaining under pressure, while McDonald’s once again proved relatively resilient and even posted a rebound.
On the current daily chart, the price has continued to recover from near its recent low to around 248.70, and the short-term structure is still trying to form a bottom. Although the long-term moving averages continue to fan downward and the price remains below several moving averages, its relative strength on two occasions as market risk appetite has contracted suggests that when high-volatility assets are being repriced, investors are more willing to shift toward defensive consumer stocks with stable cash flows and dividend support.
The area around 248 is a short-term level to watch. If the price can hold there and gradually move closer to the short-term moving averages, the case for this oversold rebound will be stronger. If it falls below the previous low again, we’ll still need to wait for a clearer bottoming signal. After such a prolonged decline, the fact that the stock has begun repeatedly testing the lows itself shows that the market is starting to distinguish between “high-volatility narratives” and “relatively stable cash flows.”
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