Currently, $USDT is looking very similar to 2023. Consolidating just above the box and retesting previous support as resistance before breaking through the box and pushing lower.
If this pattern continues, it would align with BTC potentially retesting 80–79K before breaking through the box and moving into the 90Ks.
From there, I expect price to form a range over the next couple of months before ultimately pushing toward 100K later in 2027.
Once the range forms, that's when looking for new swing longs becomes optimal.
$BTC During a bull market, entering swing longs on deviations below the range lows is one of the most effective ways to position for the next expansion.
It's as simple as waiting for the range to form, then waiting for a deviation below the range lows before entering.
If you aren't positioned in swing longs yet, wait for the next range and its deviation below the lows.
That's typically where fear gets extreme and most participants fail to open longs.
$BTC Since the monthly open, price first pushed roughly 5% to the upside before aggressively selling off and already retracing more than half of that move.
A lot of breakout buyers were trapped during this move because they were likely expecting further continuation to the upside after BTC broke above the range highs.
Many of those longs then quickly got squeezed out of the market, resulting in price now trading back below the range highs.
From what it looks like right now, BTC will most likely close back below $85k, which would confirm the failed breakout.
In that case, we would remain range bound for now, bringing the range lows back into play.
What I’m waiting for next is a deviation below those lows to attempt my next swing long.
I believe another expansion to the upside from somewhere around the $80k–$82k area is very likely, which is why I’d be willing to take that setup.
Should bearish momentum be strong enough to push through this zone and invalidate that scenario, price will likely continue lower into the $77k–$75k region.
That’s where I have another entry lined up for a second swing long attempt.
Many tests on both sides. Pretty rare to see it test both sides that many times without breaking.
With that break, it got close to its local highs but didn't quite break those yet.
Obviously the bulls don't want to see this reaccept below $85K from here. That's the level to watch going forward. Above there all is good. So watch that area.
Jobs data coming in 1.5 hours so expecting volatility for the rest of the day.