做交易的墨白

I still think this is the bottom. That bearish engulfing pattern earlier probably made a bunch of people flip from long to short, and a lot of KOLs have started calling for a drop too. Once CPI is out of the way, there won’t be much major news for the next month, which should make it easier to pump the market. Anyway, whether it goes up or down depends on next week.

Damn, gold has stopped going up, but crypto has taken off. It’s rising a bit too aggressively, so I don’t dare add back the portion of my position I cut this morning just yet. I’ll sit tight and watch for now.
#AMD超预期大涨，AI叙事延续？

That little flash crash was a wake-up call, but Bitcoin is still strong. Ethereum has been below the support level around 2,360 for half a month, while Bitcoin still isn’t willing to drop to even 76xxx.
PS: The swing correction on the 2-day chart is still underway, so there’s no rush to buy the dip.
#纳指100期货下跌0.9%

Everything that dropped today is pretty brutal; the only exception is Big Pie, which is very strong—it hasn’t provided a hard breakout. The downside is that when other coins need to rebound, it may not be able to rise either, holding everyone back.

After dragging on for a week, the 2-day chart finally turned around.

It is currently in the final 6-hour short-term decline of the upward retracement from 63,000 to 81,300. Once that drop is over, it will be a good time to buy the dip.

I’ve been shaken out badly lately. My medium-cycle structure judgment was correct, but the lower timeframe moved very chaotically. During the 2-hour swing decline after the initial top, the rebound made a local new high; after the stage adjustment ended, during the new 2-hour swing up, the pullback made a local new low. The initial short position got stopped out, and then the later long position got shaken out too. Repeatedly getting hit. 😅😅😅

Still, @华尔街保洁员Rock bro is pretty厉害—he directly filters out lower-timeframe signals. In the face of trends, overanalyzing details too much can easily get you trapped. Everyone can follow him; he’s currently the only trader I’ve seen, besides those who slowly build positions in spot through DCA for a bull market, who is almost the only one firmly bullish on the bull market and going long throughout. I believe there are other experts who see it this way too, but I haven’t come across them. If you have, please recommend them.
#比特币ETF创1月以来最大单日流入

I didn’t place an order today, just watched the market all day. This drop didn’t get filled—should I be sorry? A bit, but to go further, I have to do this; otherwise, I’ll fall into the trap of chasing and killing in low-cycle momentum.

Yesterday I shared a view labeled “possibly” (view two), but now it looks like the earliest judgment was correct. The market is still running ahead of view one—meaning that the high point around 81,000 was the short-term top. This morning, during the rebound, it forcibly pulled up to make a new high as a stop-loss move;

Since price has returned to above view one, we can’t chase short here. It’s very likely you’d be shorting right near the bottom. This is because the first pullback adjustment within the rally from 63,000 to 81,000 is about to finish.

Soon we’ll move into a medium-cycle short-term rebound—specifically, the rebound during the 【major pullback】 process of the rally from 63,000 to 81,000.
#比特币跌破77000美元

Trading on orders hit a Waterloo: the maximum drawdown reached 17%. The pullback hasn’t gone smoothly; I’ll take a little rest for now. For the moment, I’m not participating in either swing trades or short-term trades—I’m trying to find an opportunity for scalp trades to get back a couple of bites of blood.

My first viewpoint issued this week was that the market would directly unfold a pullback of medium-to-high time-cycle swings, or that the lower-to-medium cycle would need another push before topping, and then the medium-to-high cycle swing pullback would start (Viewpoint 1).
点击查看观点一

Now it looks very likely to have evolved into Viewpoint 2. Around 79,600 has already topped. This is because the market strength was too great, causing the rebound during the pullback to set a new high. It’s currently starting a new round of 2-hour level swing uptrend.

For me personally, this kind of market isn’t comfortable to trade. My follow-trading friends can see that over the past few days, all the positions are in profit, but because the structure of the lower time-cycle price action isn’t very standard, none of them took profit with stop orders. At the peak, the losses were only less than 6%. So the next actions will be as said at the beginning: trade a few scalps casually for small intraday short orders to recover some. I’ll wait until the market movement becomes smoother before doing short-term or swing trades.
#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高