MK守约

This article will summarize a series of articles written on the trading sector.
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#站在守约的肩膀上悟自己的交易之道
56。《 为什么你总是在错误的位置加仓 》
55。《 扛单的本质，是不承认自己错了 》

Warsh: Dove or hawk
On October 28, the Federal Reserve held a meeting.
The market is now assigning only a 4.5% probability of a rate hike.
The market assigns a 95.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged.
That is to say, this decision itself no longer contains any new information.
All the information is in his mouth.
Because this chairman did one thing that his predecessor had not done.
After he took office, he scrapped forward guidance.
On August 28, he gave a speech in Jackson Hole.
He said that when communicating future policy decisions, transparency itself is not a virtue.
He also said that this practice of forward guidance had gone on for too long.

Next week is the most packed week on this year’s calendar.
On October 28, the Federal Reserve meets.
On the same day, the Bank of Canada also meets.
On the same day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also meets.
On October 29, the European Central Bank meets.
On October 30, the Bank of Japan announces its decision.
In between, Australia’s third-quarter CPI is also due.
There’s also the first estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP and September PCE.
Five central banks, all crammed into 48 hours.
So next week isn’t just a rate-setting meeting; it’s a joint dress rehearsal.
First, let’s look at the common direction shared by these five central banks.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve voted 12–0 to raise rates to 3.75%–4%.

Diesel in the U.S. is now $6.32 a gallon.
A year ago, it was $3.62.
That’s a 74% increase.
Gasoline is $4.26, up from $3.05 a year ago.
In California, diesel is $8.49.
This price didn’t emerge from the market on its own.
It’s the combined result of two wars that just won’t end.
So today, we’re not talking about who’s winning or losing.
Today, we’re talking about how the market is accounting for these two wars.
Let’s start with Ukraine.
Brent crude rose from $72 before the war to $112, an increase of 55%.
But diesel rose 74%—even more than crude oil.
Because diesel is in shorter supply than crude oil, and there’s no substitute for it.

First, here’s his report card.
Trump’s approval rating is 33%.
66% disapprove of him, including 52% who strongly disapprove.
That figure is lower than at any point in his first term.
At this time last year, he was still at 41%.
This isn’t polling error; voters are holding him accountable.
The midterm elections are on November 3—just two weeks away.
The markets have called the House for the Democrats, at 91.5%.
The Senate is still a toss-up: the betting markets give Democrats 63.5%, while the model gives Republicans 65.4%.
The odds of both chambers turning blue are 62.5%.
So today, we’re not talking about who will win—the election outcome is hardly in doubt.

Let me start with a fact you may not want to hear.
For the first time this year, the industry and the investment themes have truly diverged.
AI orders are accelerating, while AI stocks are falling.
This is what twilight really looks like: it’s not that the industry is dying—it’s that capital is changing seats.
I’ve pulled together the sector rankings for the second half of the year. Start with these three numbers.
Semiconductors fell 17.7% in the second half of the year.
They were the worst-performing sector of them all.
Energy rose 28.5% in the second half of the year.
Bitcoin rose 37.8% in the second half of the year, placing second.
The top performer in the first half became the worst performer in the second.

The U.S. CPI rose 0.6% month over month in September.
The U.S. PPI rose 1.3% month over month in September.
One measures what consumers have already paid; the other, the prices that have already risen on the production and services side.
The former tells you that the cost of living has gone up again.
The latter reminds you that price pressures facing businesses are still mounting.
This time, what needs to be recalculated is the valuation of tech stocks, the duration risk of U.S. Treasuries, the opportunity cost of gold, and the capacity of crypto markets to absorb losses.
Here’s my take: These two reports strengthen the case for further rate hikes, but the market still doesn’t see an immediate hike in October as the most likely outcome. The biggest risk right now is that inflationary pressure keeps materializing while the market continues to wait for the Fed to give it a little more time.

Inflation is rising—why is gold falling?
Isn’t Bitcoin supposed to hedge against inflation? Why is it falling too?
If you focused only on the “3.7%” figure last night, it was easy to misread what was happening in these two markets.
What the market cares more about is how high this inflation will push the Fed’s cost of money.
At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 14, the U.S. released its September CPI report.
Headline CPI was up 3.7% year over year, versus expectations of 3.6% and a previous reading of 3.4%.
Headline CPI rose 0.6% month over month, versus 0.4% previously.
Core CPI was up 2.6% year over year, versus expectations of 2.5% and a previous reading of 2.4%.
Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, versus expectations of 0.2% and a previous reading of 0.3%.