Cruise橘子哥

#股票财报季
Google's Q3 market consensus is for revenue of approximately $127–128 billion and EPS of approximately $2.94–$3.02.
I predict another modest beat, with revenue around $128 billion and EPS around $3.05–$3.10. There are three reasons:

First, revenue is relatively stable. Last quarter, revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24.2% year over year. Search revenue grew about 16.8%, suggesting AI has not yet significantly disrupted search advertising. As long as Search continues to grow at a double-digit rate and YouTube and subscriptions maintain their momentum, reaching around $128 billion should not be difficult.

Second, Cloud is the main source of potential upside. Last quarter, Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, up about 82% year over year, with operating profit of $8.8 billion. If Cloud revenue approaches $28 billion this quarter and its margin holds at around 35%, both revenue and profit could exceed expectations. Conversely, if Cloud comes in below $27 billion, the market may start worrying about AI demand and capacity.

Third, we shouldn't be blindly optimistic about profits. Capital expenditures were $44.9 billion last quarter, and free cash flow was already negative $5.86 billion. This spending won't all be expensed in the current quarter, but it will gradually weigh on profits through depreciation. Fortunately, the market isn't extrapolating last quarter's unusually high EPS of $9.11; instead, it has brought normal quarterly expectations back to around $3. So a modest EPS beat shouldn't be too difficult.

HAEDAL rose 47% in a day. It’s now at $0.0308, just below its 30-day high. Trading volume is 12 times higher than usual, with over $6 million in 24-hour volume, while its total market cap is only a little over $6 million. Trading volume is actually higher than its market cap, and turnover has more than doubled. Volume like this usually comes from a group trading back and forth among themselves; it doesn’t really look like new money gradually building positions.

It’s a liquid staking project on Sui: stake SUI for hSUI, then put it to work in other DeFi protocols for another layer of yield. The token was previously featured on Binance Launchpool, making it a familiar name among small-cap coins. It’s up 67% in seven days and 40% in 30 days, so this move didn’t happen overnight.

The token distribution doesn’t look great. There are only a little over 2,000 on-chain addresses, the top 10 hold 91%, and there are just over 200 new wallets. On Binance, 531 KYC-verified holders have an average selling price of $0.13—more than four times the current price. Most of the early holders seem to have already exited at those levels. On-chain liquidity is only a little over $200,000, so more than $6 million in trading volume is hitting a market this shallow. Even a moderately large order could leave a deep dent.

The contract has upgrade privileges, and both buy and sell taxes are 0%. It’s unclear who’s driving this rally. Volume looks this shaky, and the price is right up against its previous high.

Storage and optical communications were the most broadly higher group last night: SK hynix rose 4%, Western Digital gained 3.6%, Micron climbed 3%, Seagate and SanDisk also advanced, and Lumentum surged 8%. This time, memory and optical modules led the gains, outperforming Nvidia.

Watching my buddies' video creations really deserves the recognition.

Everyone can check it out, it's really pretty good haha

I think I’ve been throttled. Is it because the short posts from @Binance BiBi aren’t getting any traffic at all now? Come clean—is that what’s going on?

Synapse’s SYN is up 21% in a day, currently at $0.185, with over $6 million in trading volume—7.5 times the usual amount. This small-cap token, with a market cap of $40 million, has nearly filled its 30-day dip in a single candle.

There are 11,000 on-chain addresses. The top 10 hold nearly 70%, and there are another 45 bundled addresses. On Binance, just 84 KYC-verified holders have positions. Their average selling price was $0.096—only half the current price—so plenty of people got out before this rally.

The contract has minting enabled, while both buy and sell taxes are set to zero. This established cross-chain project has a $40 million market cap, and trading volume surged to 7.5 times its usual level in a single day. Buyers slightly outnumber sellers, but it’s not clear who’s driving the rally.

HUMA is up 51% in a day, trading at 1.33, with a market cap of 46 million and 24-hour trading volume of 1.9 million. It doesn’t take much money to push a token like this to the top of the gainers list.

With a small market cap and thin trading, a single candle can send the price soaring, with little genuine trading in between to support it. This kind of rally looks impressive, but the problem is that buyers and sellers have to compete for the same limited orders. Those who rush in during the morning may find only a few levels of bids to sell into when they try to get out in the afternoon.

It’s hard to say where the price will settle after the rally. The more smoothly it climbs today, the just as smoothly it could come crashing back down.

Microsoft offered about 60,000 employees a voluntary departure option—more than a quarter of its workforce—in its third round this year. After two rounds of layoffs in July and September, this time employees could opt to leave voluntarily. The company’s global headcount fell for the first time in decades, while its stock rose by just over 1% that day.

HUMA rallied from below two cents to 26.3 cents, closing at 25.8 cents, up nearly 30% on the day. Its market cap is over $40 million, with $17 million in trading volume—five times the usual amount.

A PayFi project that advances payments: it puts merchants’ accounts receivable on-chain so they can be monetized early. It previously went through Binance Launchpool, so it’s no newcomer. But it’s still down over both the 7-day and 30-day periods; this rally has only clawed back part of its losses.

The token supply is extraordinarily concentrated: just 4,618 holder addresses, with the top ten holding 73%. On-chain liquidity is around $3 million. Binance KYC users’ average selling price is 0.0591, more than double the current price, leaving this group still underwater.

The contract’s minting permission is still enabled, though there’s no tax on buys or sells. Today’s candle shot straight from two cents to 26 cents, with hardly any pullbacks along the way.

Tesla rose 5% in a day, adding more than 500 billion yuan to its market cap and reaching a three-month high. Barclays upgraded its rating from Hold to Overweight and raised its price target from $370 to $450. The next day, Turo is set to launch FSD car rentals, with the platform using an API to check whether the rented cars can drive themselves. Trading volume surged to the highest in the entire market.

SYN is now $0.195, up 24% in a day, with over $4.4 million in trading volume and 11% turnover. Volume is more than five times the usual level, and the price is just shy of its 30-day high. Strangely, its gains over the past week and month combined are still only in the single digits. Today's candle has wiped out all the gains it had built up before, when basically nobody was paying attention to it.

Synapse is one of the cross-chain bridge projects from the 2021 wave—a longstanding project that’s been quiet for quite a while. Volume suddenly jumps to five times normal, and the price happens to hit its monthly high. It looks like someone is accumulating, rather than a swarm of retail traders chasing the price. The catch is that the on-chain liquidity pool on Ethereum has only around $400,000. Pushing over $4 million in trading volume through it means considerable slippage.

As for token distribution, there are 11,000 holder addresses, and the top 10 hold 67%. There are 43 bundled addresses, only 82 Binance KYC holders, and 2 smart-money holders. The contract still has minting privileges, while both buy and sell taxes are 0. With a small market, high concentration, and a shallow pool, I can’t say who’s driving this rally.

PARTI rose 16% in a day, trading at around 1.9, with a market cap of 8.9 million. Trading volume was equivalent to 30% of its market cap—a fierce turnover rate for a small-cap stock. A few million can push the price up, and it can fall just as quickly.

The last time I came across a stock with a similar setup, the order book was half as deep at the open the next day, and I couldn’t get out even when I wanted to. It looks lively today, but there’s only so much buying volume to absorb shares. This rise looks more like a result of there being no sellers than a flood of buyers chasing it.

Meta fell nearly 2% on the same day, with a market value of $1.6 trillion. It plans to issue $35 billion in stock and convertible bonds, with all the money poured into AI. Its capital expenditure guidance for this year is $135 billion to $145 billion. In the end, its own stock price fell first, yet it provided funds to the entire market, and Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom also served as cornerstone investors in this offering.

CHIP is currently trading at $0.05139, up 20% in 24 hours, with $14 million in trading volume—about three times its usual level.

This is USD.AI’s token. The project lends to computing companies using hardware such as GPUs as collateral, and also issues its own stablecoin. The rally isn’t especially abrupt: the token is up 15% over seven days and just 10% over the past month. But it’s still nearly a quarter below its 30-day high, so there’s plenty of ground left to make up.

The on-chain liquidity pool on Arbitrum holds just over $1 million. Over the past day, buying and selling have been roughly balanced, with no one-sided rush. The contract can be upgraded and includes blacklist functionality, giving the project team the power to block anyone’s transfers.

The gap between the day’s high and low was over 30%. With swings like that, if you’re slow getting in, you could end up providing an exit for someone else.

Anthropic has filed its IPO prospectus under the ticker ANT, and plans to list on the Nasdaq. It brought in $16.29 billion in revenue in the first half of the year—13 times what it made during the same period last year—and it’s still losing money.

After the filing hit, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had its strongest day in a month, and ARM rose 6%. A company that sells AI models is heading for the public markets, and the first thing it did was set chip stocks alight. The chain of events feels almost surreal. What may really have moved the market wasn’t the IPO itself, but the prospectus’s mention of spending more than $400 billion on cloud infrastructure over the next few years. In the end, that money will turn into orders for GPUs and server racks.

How much the fundraising will soak up in liquidity and how to price the company—that’s for the underwriters to work out. Hardware companies only care about one thing: when that purchase order will start turning into business.

#股票财报季 $MSFT
Microsoft will report its FY2027 Q1 results after the U.S. market closes on October 28. The market expects revenue of around $90.6 billion and EPS of approximately $4.71.

My view: both revenue and EPS have a chance of modestly beating expectations, with revenue around $90.8 billion to $91.5 billion and EPS around $4.75 to $4.90.

First, Azure is key to an upside revenue surprise.

Last quarter, Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, up 27% year over year, while Azure and other cloud services grew 43%. For Q1, the company expects Azure growth of around 45% on a constant-currency basis.

If Azure can reach 46% or higher, it should not be difficult for revenue to exceed the top end of the company's guidance range of $90.95 billion. Commercial remaining performance obligations have already reached $678 billion, up 84% year over year, showing that orders and the pipeline of future revenue remain very strong.

Second, Copilot and Microsoft 365 will improve revenue quality.
Microsoft 365 commercial cloud grew around 16% last quarter, and the number of paid Copilot users has exceeded 30 million. Even if AI has not yet fully translated into high margins, subscription contracts and enterprise customer stickiness can already support growth. Microsoft is not reliant solely on advertising or consumer electronics.

On the profit side, don't focus only on last quarter's EPS of $4.81.
Last quarter included approximately $3.2 billion in investment gains from Anthropic, providing a one-time boost of about $0.27 to EPS.

On the other hand, Microsoft's Q4 capital expenditures had already reached $35.8 billion, while Microsoft Cloud's gross margin fell from 68% a year ago to 65%. Data center depreciation and AI computing costs are putting pressure on profits.
The good news is that Q1 market expectations are already based on normalized earnings, so there is no need to count last quarter's investment gains again. Beating EPS of $4.71 is still a challenge, but not an insurmountable one.

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed its IPO prospectus last night under the ticker ANT. It reported $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of the year and a net loss of more than $80 billion. Revenue was only about a fifth of the loss, yet it’s now looking to raise $100 billion, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley underwriting the deal. It’s aiming for the biggest IPO in history.

The first reaction to those numbers was: how does that add up? But the market seemed almost relieved. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 3%, and chip stocks were broadly up. A $100 billion raise would pull money out of the market, diluting existing AI stocks in real terms, yet investors kept piling in. The AI sector had just taken a beating this month; what it needed was a fresh story to tell.

That same night, Meta unveiled one of the biggest equity financings in history, while SpaceX borrowed money outright to buy GPUs. Musk put it bluntly: the bond market has shut its doors to companies without data-center revenue, and a bunch of new cloud providers are waiting to be consolidated. It’s an interesting thing to hear from him, given that SpaceX itself is borrowing money to buy chips.

DOOD jumped 39% overnight. Its price is still under $0.002, its market cap is only $15 million, and it traded $10.8 million in a day.

Turnover was more than half its market cap. With a coin this small, a few million can pump it up—and a few million can dump it right back down. Looking at that volume makes me uneasy: a 39% gain with this kind of liquidity doesn’t really tell you much. The real story is how thin the market is.

The buyers above are all people who piled in yesterday. There’s nobody waiting to catch it below.

SYN surged straight from 0.152 to 0.182, gaining 17.8% in a day and coming within less than 8% of its 30-day high. Trading volume was over 1.5 million, turnover was 4%, and volume was 2.2 times higher. With a market cap of 40 million, pushing out an 18% bullish candle at this size isn’t much of a challenge. But SYN is up only 2% over 7 days and is actually down 2.76% over 30 days—the previous month was basically a wash, and today’s move made up for it all at once.

Synapse is a long-running cross-chain bridge project, and SYN is used for its cross-chain and liquidity operations. These old DeFi tokens usually get little attention, so this sudden jump in volume likely means someone is buying up tokens at low prices. Or perhaps someone simply used a news catalyst to light the fuse. I can’t say for sure who’s driving the move.

The token distribution is interesting: the top 10 addresses hold 67.8%. Among the 11,000 holder addresses, there are 94 new wallets and 43 linked addresses. Only 82 Binance holders have completed KYC. The average selling price was 0.096, so at the current price it’s nearly doubled—meaning those holders got off halfway up. The contract still has minting rights, and aggressive buyers account for 61%, so quite a few people are chasing the move and buying in.

$币 there are no words, seriously! My heart is shattered all over the floor