丁青驭势

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

Many small snacks for a thousand points—this wave’s upper limit, I see it at 853. But I don’t want to gamble; when it’s good, I cash out.

#比特币24小时跌3.3%失守83000美元 #比特币本周回落至约84600美元 #美国30年期国债收益率触及2004年来最高 $BTC

When things are chaotic, close up and get ready to have a little fun playing on a small platform

$BTC #AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会 #比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高 #比特币突破5月高点逼近8.6万美元

1700 points, three thousand dollars;
An opportunity to buy on every dip—it's a chance to get on board at the right time. The facts are right in front of you!

$BTC #比特币突破5月高点逼近8.6万美元 #140亿美元比特币期权周五到期 #加密市场总市值重回3万亿美元

On September 21, the Nasdaq index hit a historic high, the S&P 500 is approaching its record high, and tech stocks surged. The long side took manual profit and exited after the release.

After the US stock market close, Bitcoin continued to push higher and has already reached the 860–870 short liquidation zone.

With the US stocks strengthening, it’s not suitable or rational to hard-guess Bitcoin’s top. Even if you now have a strong bearish idea, the current chart hasn’t yet provided a short setup.

Core plan: Short first and wait for signals to form; don’t blindly抢 at prices. Even if I’m prepared to open a position around 870, I’ll only do it with a small size, with a stop loss—let’s first observe whether it will spike higher and form a pin first.

$BTC #NEAR一周涨近80% #MultiversX计划协调硬分叉恢复 #比特币突破8.5万美元

Still at a thousand points—don't go against the trend, don't go against the trend! Do you still not understand how valuable the four words “follow the trend” really are, everyone!

$BTC #比特币突破8.5万美元 #以太坊突破2700美元

Right now, this big deal compared to being trapped in a range or missing the mark… feels even worse, right? 😕 It shouldn’t have set a take-profit at 820…

$BTC #比特币突破8.5万美元 #以太坊突破2700美元

Multitudes will never give up

$BTC #比特币突破8.5万美元 #以太坊突破2700美元

Take 15000 oil with 5200 points!

The Northbound target and the time-and-place entry plan were explained clearly in my analysis at midnight. The market’s moves are exactly like mine—so I can only say, seeing it is already profit.

$BTC #以太坊突破2700美元 #比特币突破8万美元大关 #比特币市值超越特斯拉

… drank alcohol for a few days … suddenly jolted … how to say, should I exit or set a take-profit at 820? 🤔

$BTC #比特币突破8万美元大关 #比特币市值超越特斯拉 #以太坊重回2600美元

Big Pie Makes a Fourth Attempt to Break 820—Can We Break Through Tonight?

Key Resistance: 820–830

The price has stood above 810 for the fourth time; each time it approaches 820, it falls back by about 2000 points.

Outlook: Overall, still not bearish. Prefer to go long on pullbacks. Around 820, it’s only recommended to try with a small position, and set a stop loss properly!

If tonight holds above 798, the US session could have a chance to push higher, with targets in the 820–830 range.

$BTC #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #日本央行加息至31年高位 #比特币突破8万美元大关 #比特币市值超越特斯拉

The dot plot is landing slightly hawkish, but the risk-market volatility is limited. Everyone is waiting for Mr. Waller’s speech and watching whether it further reinforces expectations of higher interest rates.

The bond market has already priced this in ahead of time. With expectations for further rate hikes rising quickly, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note has moved higher. The market is betting that long-term inflation will be kept in check, and the 30-year Treasury yield has fallen.

After the speech, the 10-year Treasury yield remains firm. Pressure on risk assets is likely to persist. Even hawkish signals like the dot plot cannot pull it lower, so the bond market’s downside risk will be significantly amplified.

If rate hikes are combined with policy adjustments, it still may not be enough to restrain the 10-year Treasury yield. With limited available policy space in the U.S., investors can only hope that developments in the Middle East and a cooling in energy prices help.

As mentioned earlier, the key risk in this 25 bp hike is not the hike itself, but whether Waller hints at a sequence of consecutive hikes:

1. Signals are data-dependent and do not lock in an October hike → the market temporarily dips on the idea of less certainty, then rebounds after the “boots-on-the-ground” landing.

2. Emphasizes inflation risks and preserves room for tightening multiple times afterward → Treasuries and the U.S. dollar strengthen, and BTC drops below 75,000–76,000, then heads for 72,500–71,500, possibly even back into the 6 handle.

In short, this decision is overall bearish for BTC. The focus of the move is not on the rate-hike landing itself, but on Waller—whether this is a single standalone hike or the start of a new tightening cycle.

$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币ETF净流出4.5亿美元 #比特币下跌4%

Tonight’s key focus isn’t whether to add 25 basis points or not. Instead, there are three things to watch:

First, the dot plot—see whether the Fed has any further plans to raise rates, and how many times.

Second, the part about Powell’s remarks—mainly what he says. In particular, compare what he signals with the content of the blog post released earlier tonight to judge whether the tone is more hawkish or more dovish.

Third, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. It’s already close to 5%. If, after the meeting, yields continue to push higher, pressure will be heavy on the tech and AI sectors. If the yield clearly pulls back, that’s when the Nasdaq will have a chance to rebound.

In simpler terms: whether to add, and by how much, isn’t the main point right now. What matters tonight is whether the rate hike is a one-off adjustment or the beginning of a new round of tightening.

$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美国30年期国债收益率升破5.40%

In this market right now, if you’re asking whether you can catch the bottom—who knows where the bottom actually is? 715 isn’t impossible, but if you’re saying it’s going to start with “5,” then don’t get carried away: unless 612–610 isn’t effectively broken through, it’s best not to fantasize about it.

If you really want to catch one more wave, I only suggest using low leverage with a small position. Aim for 3–500 points, then exit. No need to get greedy—this is, for the current market situation, the lowest-risk approach.

$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #比特币现货ETF净流入1.6亿美元

Just two days ago I was telling my friend, “I dreamed about hitting 7.10. Won’t it really reach this level on Thursday?……”

$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币跌至7.6万美元

The FOMC meeting is just around the corner. Basically, the probability of a rate hike is over 90%. The biggest potential surprise is at most a delay. So there’s no need to obsess over whether there will be a hike or not. The focus is simply on observing how the market reacts once the hike actually lands.

Tomorrow, when a 25-basis-point hike is delivered—something we previously said would most likely replicate last week, with a dip first followed by a rebound—remember this: bad news has been around for too long. The market has already digested a round of it in advance. When the news is finally official, it may actually turn into a positive catalyst that breaks the current range-bound action.

If, after the meeting, the remarks remain hawkish, then it basically means continuing to push the rate-hike narrative. Whether it’s U.S. Treasuries or oil prices, risk assets will start shrinking. In that case, the market trend is like a broken record: BTC will face sustained pressure and move downward.

On the other hand, if the tone turns dovish, then expectations for further hikes will cool down. That would give the market a chance to start another rebound, aiming to challenge the resistance zone of 80,000–83,000. But there’s one prerequisite: the pressure coming from factors like U.S. Treasury inflation needs to ease.

Even though I’m bullish, to be honest, based on the current broader environment, it’s not suitable to be overly optimistic. That said, the whole crypto market has been building momentum for so long—there’s no way that BTC would suddenly drop down to the 40s or 50s out of nowhere. Like what I said at the end of June: that strong support at 61,000 has never been broken. Where, exactly, can you see BTC going to 50k or even 40k? The only thing you can really say now is that all kinds of negative news are suppressing the entire market. In terms of trading, if you can avoid frequent transactions, do so—staying alive is the key.

$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美国30年期国债收益率升破5.40%

There are two key turning points in front of us now: 80,000 and 830. The big cake wants to move upward out of the range-bound consolidation, and these two levels must be genuinely broken through.

If it’s only a fake breakout, then the market will continue to oscillate in this way, maintaining the status quo.

The opportunity on the left is indeed large and very tempting, but the corresponding risk is also high.

I’m still planning to wait until the market confirms the move before I make a trade.

$BTC #比特币现货ETF净流入1.6亿美元 #比特币守稳77000美元上方 #比特币涨1.64%突破78000美元 #美联储加息概率升至89%

You’re a bit too stiff…

$BTC #比特币守稳77000美元上方 #美联储加息概率升至89% #比特币涨1.64%突破78000美元

A bunch of negative news is piling up!!

1. The Fed’s interest-rate decision on Thursday: the market expects a 25 bps hike, while also signaling there is still room for further hikes;
2. Oil prices have also been holding steady above 100;
3. Whether the Clear Act can pass tomorrow is still unknown.

With all these negative headlines weighing on the market, how is Big Biscuit not falling but actually moving higher??? It’s really hard to make sense of, isn’t it …

$BTC #比特币守稳77000美元上方 #美联储加息概率升至89% #比特币涨1.64%突破78000美元

775 holds firm to chase more; currently 785—should we just go for 1,000 points?

$BTC #比特币守稳77000美元上方 #美联储加息概率升至89% #比特币涨1.64%突破78000美元