疯狂的Jerrick

The market is very weak. What should I do next?

Yesterday, after Bitcoin's first big bearish candle, I stopped out of those boring long positions.

Then my mindset changed in an instant. I thought, isn't this the bearish candle I've been waiting for?

So I jumped in decisively and shorted some of the weaker assets on my watchlist, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, of course. I closed the positions around 10 p.m. last night.

Next, I'll wait for a rebound, then short again.

I've joined the lean-muscle club too!

They're all crypto big shots—CZ, Justin Sun.
I'm the only little shrimp!
Haha...

I’m increasingly starting to think that most people traveling this National Day holiday are wage earners.

For me,
this National Day is just like any other weekend,
or even a regular workday.

Trading crypto, taking care of the kids, cooking—
I can’t skip a single one.

There really aren’t many good men like me.
#比特币跌破8.4万美元

Is this kind of price suppression common?

Today, while watching the market, I happened to notice this kind of heavy selling pressure on the broader market. There weren't nearly as many large orders on the other side of the order book. Does this mean it's time to go short?
Also, is this kind of order book normal?

I'm curious: when you trade crypto, do you use ETF fund flows as a reference?

Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for two days in a row, and flows across the major crypto ETFs have diverged noticeably—sometimes in, sometimes out.

Bitcoin took a big hit today, with a large bearish candle. I expect that when we look at today's data tomorrow, it'll also show a sizable net outflow from ETFs.

Personally, I think this big bearish candle is just the beginning. I expect a gradual decline from here, until we get another large 4-hour bullish candle with a long upper wick. Otherwise, it'll be very difficult to recover after breaking below the uptrend.

The price action from here won't be as smooth.

As for my own trading: I'll be bearish over the next couple of weeks, so I already trimmed some of my positions today, even though my long position this morning was stopped out. But then again, isn't this big bearish candle exactly the kind of clear-cut opportunity I've been waiting for?

Sustained net outflows from ETFs show that institutions are taking some profits. We won't be able to recover all the lost ground in one go.
#比特币跌破8.4万美元

The market taught me a lesson again this morning.

In last week’s review, I already said not to open a whole supermarket of positions in hard mode,
but I just wouldn’t listen.

I opened three positions last night (QNT, ZEC, etc.).
This morning, I was still sitting on a small unrealized profit.
Then I saw Bitcoin bounce a little,
so I went and opened another long position.

Well, I opened it, so I opened it.
But why did I have to make it so big?
Now it’s time to see if I can stick to my discipline again.

Does anyone else feel this way?
Anyway,
I increasingly feel that
when you haven't achieved significant results,
you really shouldn't give others advice.
And even if you can't help giving advice,
don't expect others to take it.

I had a sudden thought today: I wanted to know how Bitcoin performed around last year's TOKEN2049, so I asked AI to analyze it for me. Here are the general findings.

1. Last year's TOKEN2049 took place on October 1 and 2.
This year's conference is on October 7 and 8.
2. Last year, BTC was consolidating near the highs of a bull market.
This year, the conference coincides with Bitcoin breaking upward through two major waves.
3. Before last year's conference, the market was in a phase of a slight pullback from a high, or you could say consolidation.
This year, it's in a phase of consolidation near a local high.
4. During and after last year's TOKEN2049, there was an opportunity for a rally.
Will this year's rally continue along the same lines?
5. The market peaked not long after last year's TOKEN2049, and this also triggered the largest deleveraging operation in history on 10/11.
Could we see a similar event this year? I think a sharp drop is quite likely, but a move on the scale of 10/11 seems unlikely. After all, last year the market was at an all-time high, while this year we're only in the early stages of a bull market.

In short, these are just my personal observations. The actual market action is what matters—the market is always right.
#token2049

MicroStrategy bought crypto again.

Yesterday (10/5), MicroStrategy updated its results for last week's purchases.
It has now bought Bitcoin for three consecutive weeks.
However,
last week it bought only 334 bitcoins.

Although it wasn't a large purchase,
for the crypto market,
as long as it doesn't sell,
that's a positive signal.
#微策略持续增持BTC

SpaceX took off last night, with the price rising from 159 to 171. Here are a few reasons I came up with after reviewing the move:

1. Analysts raised their valuations.
Morgan Stanley set a $300 price target and an Overweight rating, significantly boosting market confidence.
The market has started reassessing SpaceX’s overall value.

2. SI has become a new valuation story.
The market no longer sees SpaceX as just a “rocket company.”
It has started pricing in the combined potential of SpaceX + Starlink + SI computing power + space-based data centers.

3. Starship’s test flight is approaching.
Starship’s next test flight is a major near-term catalyst.
If it continues to make progress, expectations for future launch frequency and commercial viability could rise.

4. Starlink’s fundamentals keep getting stronger.
Starlink has become one of SpaceX’s most important sources of revenue.
Its aviation, maritime, and enterprise communications businesses continue to expand, and the market is starting to value Starlink on its own as a large telecommunications company.

5. Expectations for chips and AI infrastructure are heating up.
SpaceX is becoming increasingly connected to AI, chip manufacturing, and computing infrastructure.
The market is starting to assign it a valuation more like that of an AI infrastructure company.

6. The broader U.S. stock market provided a tailwind.
The Nasdaq and tech stocks broadly rose last night, and risk appetite improved noticeably.
So SpaceX-specific catalysts + the AI rally + a broader market upswing all reinforced one another.

7. The technical picture is strongly bullish.
I haven’t checked SpaceX’s moving averages, but on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and even daily charts, the moving averages are all aligned in a bullish trend.

In a nutshell:
🚀 Analyst upgrades + Starship catalyst + Starlink growth + a new AI/computing-power narrative + strength in U.S. tech stocks = SpaceX’s big gain last night.

As for my own trading:
I haven’t traded SpaceX since it unlocked on September 24.
That’s because BTC in the crypto market has been very strong.
But looking at it today,
I simply didn’t fully understand SpaceX.
As a result, I’m now left watching from the sidelines.
What a great bullish narrative.
Looks like I need to do more post-trade reviews.

When it comes to this difficult mode,
it’s basically trapping yourself.

It’s not the market trapping you,
it’s you trapping yourself.

Last Monday started with making money,
but later there were some pullbacks,
then there was this constant up-and-down,
and I even didn’t know how to place orders.

It feels like when placing orders,
it’s either stop loss,
or break-even.

Last night, it moved again in the direction opposite to my plan,
and today I’m a bit unsure how to place orders.

Sometimes,
a good state needs continuous positive feedback to build confidence.
And recently,
break-even and stop-losses have exactly led me into a dead-end alley,
where I can see sunlight but not daylight.

Fighting.

These two trades from the weekend both moved at the break-even price.

It’s another case where my understanding of the market took a wrong turn.

But the market is always right.
When most of us are bearish,
the institutions are still making massive purchases—
that’s a matter of cash flow.

I chose to swim against the current,
so it’s only natural that I didn’t make money.

Last night I even went short on BTC,
and it hit my stop-loss line.

The hard mode remains.
The hard part isn’t the market—
it’s always the version of yourself that tries to fight against the market.
#比特币现货ETF三季度净流入63.4亿美元

This weekend, I only made one trade.

Last week’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) market, Bitcoin still hasn’t broken through the previous high. So it’s still a difficult-mode kind of market.

And ETF flows are still overall net inflow. I’m now afraid to short Bitcoin.

So I short other formations that better fit a bearish structure—one is SHIB, and the other is Aster and DOGE.

I’m not shorting Bitcoin mainly for the following reasons:
1. Bitcoin’s ETF capital flow shows as net inflow. Last week there was only one day of net outflow; there wasn’t any important news. News only affects things temporarily, while capital affects the underlying logic.
2. Shorting these two altcoins: recently, most altcoins have been moving really poorly, while Bitcoin has been relatively strong. If Bitcoin later truly breaks out, it’s likely to turn into a Bitcoin “bloodsucking” rally, where altcoins still won’t be easy to rise.
3. Technically, Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure. Unless we get a big bearish candle that changes the current 4-hour bullish structure.

After last night’s non-farm payroll release,
Bitcoin was near the previous high,

and did not break above it,
so this short trade was doable.
It was also predictable.

However, since I had already lost enough yesterday,
I just watched it.

Still in the difficult mode range,
don’t be stubborn.

“Hard Mode” is a money-losing mode.

I lost money again today.
Everyone who knows me well knows that I’ve been bearish lately.
Today, a single big bullish candle caused me to experience a fairly large drawdown.

My position was still a bit too heavy.
In the ranging (consolidation) zone, I shouldn’t put such a heavy position.
I bought too many assets.
When there isn’t a clear, certain opportunity, I should focus on BTC and ETH to trade the range through arbitrage.

Sometimes, I even turned a short-term trade into a long-term one.
I originally had some decent profit, but I still chose to let it run and keep holding.
That hold ended up pushing me back to where I stopped out.

Reflection and summary are as follows:
1. This is indeed “Hard Mode,” a disorderly ranging market. So when you’re at about the right spot, you should take profit. Since it’s a ranging market, you should trade according to the methods of a ranging market, not chase compounding just because you have profits.
2. I still have too little experience with the current market conditions. Failing to confidently take profit and stick to it is a reflection of my lack of experience.
3. Yesterday I analyzed ETF fund flows. At the moment, there isn’t any significant outflow. Without major “bearish/going-short” news, if liquidity is still stable (no large ETF outflows), then I should decisively stand on the side of the funds. Funds are the underlying logic for how the market develops—not technical analysis, and not news.
4. The higher-timeframe trend is still a bullish trend. But I’ve been bearish recently. When the uptrend line has been repeatedly validated, you should boldly go long and test, rather than keep being blindly bearish.
5. Understand this: the longer you probe within a small range, the more liquidated (crash-to-zero) positions at the upper and lower boundaries will accumulate. Then, whichever direction the market breaks out, it will be pushed extremely violently.

！？

大饼 self since hitting 87390, it has been adjusting continuously.
About ten days from today.

Based on my experience with past adjustments of BTC,
BTC usually moves with major adjustment cycles of 15 days, 30 days, and 60 days.
That means the most recent possible turning point is around the last day of the National Day holiday.
So from today to the last day of the National Day holiday,
most likely it will mainly be range-bound consolidation.

You can take profit at the high and buy back at the low,
but I only do high-altitude trades.
For now, I’ll stick to this strategy.
Of course, there’s no ruling out that if something unexpected happens in the middle, I may switch to a long position at any time.
#比特币ETF三季度净流入63.4亿美元

Why do people say this is a difficult mode?

1. On the night of 9/29, before the U.S. stock market opened, BTC surged to around 84,520, then after the market opened it went downward. The short-term peak was around 21:15.

2. On the night of 9/30, before the U.S. stock market opened, BTC surged to around 85,630, then after the market opened it went downward. The short-term peak was around 21:00.

3. On 10/1, before the U.S. stock market opened, BTC also surged to around 83,950, then after the open it printed two consecutive bearish candles. It looked like it might repeat the previous two nights’走势, so I went short and set my stop-loss around 84,520. But this time the script got wildly chaotic:

1) The gold correlation is still in effect: I saw gold form a descending channel before 21:30. I thought the gold bounce at 21:30 was just a rebound within the downward continuation. But looking back, that 15-minute bounce became the turning point for gold, and it also helped push BTC higher.
2) After 21:30, BTC showed a very confusing bullish logic, and it followed gold to break above BTC’s daytime high of 84,366—and in doing so it also wiped out my stop-loss.

In summary:
1) Right now, BTC is basically stuck in a large range (82,500, 85,640), and all the moves in between are reasonable.

2) If you short, look for entries near the upper edge of the range; if you long, look for entries near the lower edge. If you want to open a trade somewhere inside the range, then place the stop-loss at the upper or lower edge of the range—then the holding experience will be slightly better.

3) Otherwise, every time you get stopped out, you have to start a new position again. That keeps grinding away at your principal, and it’s really hard.

After the headless liquidation dump when US stock futures opened last night,
I became even more convinced to short.

This morning when I woke up and saw the big BTC as I expected—barely alive and barely holding on—
I knew that the upside momentum for the longs is still far from optimistic.
Without any compelling bull narrative to support it,
then we can just let gold keep falling without restriction,
and let US Treasuries keep making new highs without restriction.
That only means you’ll keep seeing the market’s rate-hike expectations for the October Fed rise further and further,
which will remove one link from the BTC long narrative, and then another.

As always, keep watching for shorts.

Personal trading:
This morning I entered a BTC short,
but the entry price was very bad.
So I exited on the subsequent rebound.

One thing worth reflecting on here is that:
Whenever I want to short, I give myself a mental suggestion to wait until it rebounds before shorting,
but I always get impatient and enter first.

But now I’ve learned to be smarter.
Enter the challenge account first,
then when it rebounds, use another account to open a short position again at the high point.
It’s sort of like you can profit from both ends.
Your psychological tolerance is also a bit better.
Otherwise, if you use one account to add to the position,
and then the next rebound triggers another stop-loss amount, it feels really bad to hold the position.

The good news is that the trades I opened today are all currently in profit.

PS: If you’ve read this far, I’ll share a wealth “password” I haven’t cashed out yet: BTC is linked to gold—BTC always lags gold by half a beat.

It’s been a long time since I last updated on the situation with crypto ETFs.
Although I’ve been watching all along, this update mainly highlights a few particularly notable points.
For example, for the first time in a while, Bitcoin (the “big cake,” i.e., BTC) has finally shown net outflows of ETF funds.

The reason I say “in a while” is that the previous nine trading days all saw net inflows—small and large inflow operations.
But starting yesterday (9/30), there was a net outflow.

Among them, ZEC has had no activity for multiple consecutive days, and in the past three days, two of them were net outflow days.

ETH has had net outflows over the last two days.

And this round of BTC ETF net outflows has also struck bulls’ morale a second time,
causing the momentum of going long to pause again.

So,
with October right around the corner, I expect it will be a “hard mode” period,
full of all kinds of choppiness, and all kinds of PVP.
Personally, I’m more inclined to expect a larger-scale range to churn things up—to flush out long positions that have already accumulated substantial profits, to replenish energy,
then to sprint toward an even higher stage.

Gold in September, silver in October.
No matter what, October is still “silver,”
so there should still be many opportunities.

For friends who like trading in a range, this should basically be their home court.

From a personal trading perspective:
I still remain bearish.
I just haven’t gotten the timing for shorting quite right.
What needs to be summarized is that, during the last two times—around the period before the U.S. stock market opened in the evening—the ideal moments to short were turned into longs.

That’s exactly why “being right about the direction doesn’t necessarily mean making money by going long.”
But this is also one of the difficulties for traders:
we keep adapting to market changes,
but there are always sudden situations that prevent us from staying clear-headed and doing the right thing.
Keep pushing on.