- 3.7% over the last year, up from 3.4% in August. - Gas alone went up 9.1% in a single month. - The Fed’s own goal is 2%, so we’re almost at double that.
Bitcoin has spent the whole week stuck between $81K and $87K.
Important things to know: - Oil near $110; - US 30-year rates the highest since 2002; - Now everyone’s waiting on one US inflation number this Wednesday 14 Oct, at 8:30am New York time;
Possible Meeting Outcomes
▶️ Hotter than expected: people bet harder on a rate hike, US rates climb and Bitcoin likely feels the pressure. We can go from neutral toward fear quickly.
▶️ Cooler than expected: rates could ease and give Bitcoin and stocks some room to move up.
▶️ About as expected: probably more of the same flat chop until the Fed meeting.
Prediction markets show a split right now: about 54% odds Bitcoin touches $80K in October, 45% for $87.5K.
A lot happened this last few days, so here is an overview:
- A year ago this weekend crypto had the biggest liquidation day in its history, more than $19 billion in borrowed bets wiped out in one day. Now, Bitcoin is around $83,000 now, about a third lower than that morning.
- People in Southeast Asia who bought their Ledger through one authorised reseller got drained, more than $86 million in suspected thefts traced so far, still not confirmed by Ledger.
- This Sunday a phishing link went out from Coldcard's own X account.
Cold wallets keep being the focus of big hacks this year...
- Besides, from late October, 82 million Galaxy phones in the US will get digital dollars inside Samsung Wallet.
- Visa survey found almost half of people in Asia Pacific expect to use stablecoins in the next five years, while only 6% understand how they work.
If you read so far you might be seeing the same gap I’m. More people are coming into the space and most will use this before they understand it, so for today lesson: buy your wallet from the maker, type the website yourself, and take the time to learn what you're holding.
Really anxious watching Brazil counting votes right now....
I moved from Brazil less than two years ago and I can say that one of the main reasons that made me confirm my decision to move out was the current president and the way things have been moving there.
Wishing for a change, for my family and more than 200 million Brazilians there.
The two sides voting had written more than 600 pages of compromise between them, yet still what broke it was the ethics section, the few pages about whether people in government can hold and launch crypto while they are the ones writing the rules for crypto.
Trump agreed to a version of that language on Sunday, right before the vote, which was big news at the time...
It would bar covered officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring a digital asset, make them sell any “significant financial interest” in crypto or move it into a blind trust, let state attorneys general sue to enforce it, and stop exchanges from listing any token issued by one of those officials.
For a moment it looks good, but here is the part, Democrats read it differently.
Their argument was that it blocks new launches yet doesn’t clearly reach what is already in place, and they wanted it extended to large holdings, dependent children and paid crypto promotion.
For context on why that section was the one that mattered:
- Trump’s own financial disclosure in June showed at least $1.4 billion in crypto income for 2025. - Around $594 million from World Liberty Financial and about $635 million from the $TRUMP coin. - Besides the fact that crypto was his single biggest source of income for the year, bigger than real estate.
What now?
The SEC and the CFTC keep going with their own rulemaking, which was already happening in the background. That route is slower, narrower, and much easier for the next administration to undo.
The crypto PACs now decide what they do with the senators who voted no, with the election on November 3.
And if the Senate changes hands in November, the next version of this bill gets written in a very different room.
Regardless of how anyone feels about this bill, the part I keep coming back to and failing to move on from is the selfish side of our nature as humans, this was a bill with more than six hundred pages and the whole thing fell apart over the section about themselves.
The two sides voting had written more than 600 pages of compromise between them, yet still what broke it was the ethics section, the few pages about whether people in government can hold and launch crypto while they are the ones writing the rules for crypto.
Trump agreed to a version of that language on Sunday, right before the vote, which was big news at the time...
It would bar covered officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring a digital asset, make them sell any “significant financial interest” in crypto or move it into a blind trust, let state attorneys general sue to enforce it, and stop exchanges from listing any token issued by one of those officials.
For a moment it looks good, but here is the part, Democrats read it differently.
Their argument was that it blocks new launches yet doesn’t clearly reach what is already in place, and they wanted it extended to large holdings, dependent children and paid crypto promotion.
For context on why that section was the one that mattered:
- Trump’s own financial disclosure in June showed at least $1.4 billion in crypto income for 2025. - Around $594 million from World Liberty Financial and about $635 million from the $TRUMP coin. - Besides the fact that crypto was his single biggest source of income for the year, bigger than real estate.
What now?
The SEC and the CFTC keep going with their own rulemaking, which was already happening in the background. That route is slower, narrower, and much easier for the next administration to undo.
The crypto PACs now decide what they do with the senators who voted no, with the election on November 3.
And if the Senate changes hands in November, the next version of this bill gets written in a very different room.
Regardless of how anyone feels about this bill, the part I keep coming back to and failing to move on from is the selfish side of our nature as humans, this was a bill with more than six hundred pages and the whole thing fell apart over the section about themselves.