_Takezo

Reasons Why Crypto Could Stage a Strong Recovery This Q4

There are several catalysts lining up that could support a meaningful recovery in the crypto market this quarter.

- $BTC and all altcoin top like ETH LINK BNB,.. is showing bullish RSI divergence against price on both the daily and weekly timeframes, a classic technical signal that often precedes trend reversals.

- The memecoin narrative is heating up again. $ANSEM has already reached a $400M market cap, while the Robinhood Chain ecosystem is experiencing an explosive memecoin boom. More importantly,

- Despite ongoing macro uncertainty, the market has refused to break down significantly. This resilience is worth paying attention to and suggests selling pressure may be weakening.

- The 2026 FIFA World Cup is only 3 days away from ending. As global attention shifts back to financial markets, capital could rotate back into crypto.

- The CLARITY Act has been passed, providing a clearer regulatory framework for crypto exchanges and digital asset businesses in the U.S. This could significantly reduce regulatory uncertainty and pave the way for greater institutional and traditional capital inflows into crypto.

- Historically, Q4 has been one of the strongest quarters for crypto performance, with seasonality often favoring risk assets.

ACCORDING TO THIS MODEL, BTC HAS JUST EXITED THE BEAR MARKET

This is called the Wolfy Wave Index (WWI), built by a Chinese trader. I came across it back in July, and looking at it again today, I have to admit it lines up pretty well with the current cycle.

It isn't calculated based on price or volume, but on the number of Bitcoin blocks mined, with the assumption that each cycle consists of 75% bull market and 25% bear market.

According to the model: WWI = 1 marks the cycle peak, and WWI = 0 marks the bottom.

The model marked the peak in October 2025, quite close to BTC's actual peak. Around 13 October 2026, the WWI just returned to 0, meaning BTC has entered a new bull market cycle according to this model.

Of course, this is just a model for reference based on historical data; nothing is 100% accurate.

There are two main reasons why Korean exchanges are listing new Binance coins one after another right now:

1. Money is flowing out, and listings are a way for exchanges to try to maintain volume.

KRW volume has plunged, and retail investors are moving into stocks. Upbit has virtually no other tools left: in a downturn, new listings are almost the only lever it can pull internally to affect volume, but they don’t make the pie bigger or revive market sentiment.

2. Upbit and Bithumb are competing for market share.

This rivalry goes back to 2025: Upbit once launched a wave of listings in response to Bithumb’s rising volume. This year, valuation pressure has also increased, as both are preparing for IPOs (Upbit is targeting Nasdaq following its merger with Naver, while Bithumb is preparing to list on KOSDAQ).

Korean exchange listing news is still powerful, but not as much as it used to be.

With no legal domestic derivatives market, capital controls that keep foreign market makers out, a limited selection of assets, and a market made up almost entirely of retail investors, KRW listings are among the most reliable liquidity events in crypto. That’s why Binance perpetual-contract coins often pop when listing news breaks.

Financial Freedom

BNB Chain is developing a new L1:
• Block time: 200ms, with 20ms pre-confirmation
• EVM-compatible.
• Native account abstraction supports atomic batch calls, gas sponsorship, passkeys, and scoped session keys.
• Multi-lane architecture to reserve block space for important contracts such as matching engines, liquidations, and oracles.
• Native Shielded Pool: anonymous transactions using zk-SNARKs.
CZ confirmed that no additional coins are being created; instead, $BNB will be used to pay gas fees through a bridge. This new L1 will run in parallel with BNB Chain, but it seems likely to gradually replace the old BNB Chain.
This new L1 will help BNB adapt to the agentic era and strengthen its competitiveness in payments, CLOBs, perps, and especially privacy with Shielded Pool.

No cry in casino

Axis Robotics tokenomics analysis

First, some information you need to know:

- TGE tonight

- Listings on Coinbase Spot (quite rare), Binance Alpha (high chance it’ll only be futures), OKX Perp, etc.

The initial supply is 165M tokens. Let’s break this down in detail.

-Ecosystem (team): around 80M, possibly listing fees for exchanges => selling pressure

-S1 airdrop + Binance Wallet rewards: around 20M => almost certainly going to be sold at this point

-Kaito staking + campaign: likely to sell the rest

-Sonar: 10% unlock, then sell.

→ The team + MM hold around 140M, or about 85% of the float. Only around 25–35M tokens are likely to be sold immediately. At a $100M FDV, that’s equivalent to $2.5–3.5M, tiny compared to the daily volume on Alpha + futures listing day (usually $50–500M/day). This means airdrop sell pressure won’t determine the price. The MM and futures positions will.

Reasons the project has an incentive to hold or push the price up

Season 2 runs from 23/10, with 60M tokens (6% of supply): a higher token price means points are worth more and helps attract contributors. Since most of the SS2 airdrop is pretty crappy, I’m not expecting much from it either.

Coinbase Spot; there’s fuel available for a hedge squeeze or short squeeze.

Notable unlocks

The first major unlock is after 12 months. However, 3% unlocks every month for VCs/team (quite dangerous).

Some concerns and other information:

The project has no real revenue yet. The claims about selling data for 1M ARR and signing contracts are probably mostly hot air, so don’t expect much in the long term.

Scenarios

Lists high, then sells off gradually (like ROBO and most Alpha tokens). ROBO is also a robotics project, and it’s actually more established than this one, but its price is currently slow-rugging.

Sell first, pump later: just like most projects listed on Binance Alpha + Futures

#AXIS

$MOVR gg

Long Swing $BERA or spot buy

Long $XVS

Long $WIF monitoring tag

Long $EPIC

next MOVR is EPIC, monitoring tag wave is comming

big win again

big win

SHORT $GUN

SHORT $JELLYJELLY

long $MOVR

Long $0G

Long $QNT

Long $MOVR