CryptoRider69

ETFs are being sold, while old wallets are accumulating. Who of them is wrong? 👀

On July 1, about $223 million left spot BTC ETFs. This is already the ninth day of outflows in a row.

Even Citi lowered its BTC forecast from $112,000 to $82,000, and its ETH forecast from $3,175 to $2,240. The reasons are clear: weak demand due to ETFs, lack of a quick positive turnaround, and regulatory delays in the U.S.

At first glance, the picture isn’t very encouraging.

But at the same time, long-term holders have started accumulating bitcoin again.

In fact, we’re seeing two different behaviors.

Some ETF capital is leaving because it didn’t get a rapid rise. And those who have held BTC for years are using the low price to accumulate.

I’m not saying this is the bottom and it’s only growth from here. If outflows continue, the pressure on the market won’t go away.

But what’s interesting is something else.

While some are selling due to the absence of a quick positive, others are calmly adding. And usually it’s exactly in these moments that money begins to flow from the impatient to those who are willing to wait.

Who of them is wrong—we’ll see later 😏

Trend 2026

I came across my post that I wrote on December 31, 2025 👀
Link to the post - (telegram)
Back then, almost everyone was sure that after memecoins, the next big trend would be prediction markets, voting, Polymarket, and everything like that.
I then wrote a completely different opinion.
That the next wave won’t be about hype, but about real value.

Why is almost nobody talking about Ethereum right now? 🧐

Not so long ago, everyone was arguing about what was better: BTC or ETH.

And now attention has scattered everywhere:
AI, meme coins, RWA, tokenized stocks, Solana.

And Ethereum seems like it simply fell out of the information field.

But does that mean something is wrong with it?

Honestly, I don't think so.

Ethereum still remains the foundation for a huge part of the crypto market. DeFi, stablecoins, tokenized assets, a lot of L2s, and a large amount of infrastructure all run on it.

It’s just that right now it doesn’t look like something new.

People always chase what sounds fresher and might be able to deliver x-es faster.

And fundamental things often become boring exactly before attention returns to them again.

I’m not saying ETH will moon tomorrow.

But it’s strange to completely write off an asset that, in fact, still holds up a large part of crypto economics.

In reality, Ethereum wasn’t forgotten.

Maybe it just stopped being fashionable, but soon everything will fall into place
$ETH

Why doesn't Bitcoin give old 10x gains anymore?

Why doesn't Bitcoin give old 10x gains anymore?
In 2011, about $2.7 billion in new capital fueled BTC growth of more than 55,000%.
In this cycle, about $697 billion has already entered, and the growth is roughly 689%.
Why is there such a big difference?
Because the more expensive and larger an asset becomes, the harder it is to move.
When Bitcoin was at a conditional $1, taking it up to $10 was relatively easy. That was already a 900% increase. But to grow another 900% from a price of $10,000, it would need to reach $100,000.

The Fed kept the rate unchanged at 3.75%.

Waller's rhetoric wasn't as bullish as the market hoped.

The bottom line is:
inflation is still a problem, the situation with Iran and oil adds risks, so the Fed will be watching the data for now.

So it's not hard negative, but it's also not a doveish tone.

This week could be very interesting for crypto 😏

Right now, the market is pumping on positive vibes about a possible peace deal between the US and Iran. It makes sense, because if they really open the Strait of Hormuz, oil will calm down a bit, inflationary pressure will ease, and risk assets will get some breathing room.
But for now, this isn’t the end.
The main focus this week is the Fed.
The meeting will be led by Kevin Warsh. Everyone is expecting a softer stance on rates, as Trump critically needs rate cuts right now.

USA and Iran

So about the USA and Iran.
Not everyone fully understands how the market reacts to such events.
Information about the war had already been partially factored into the price. The expectation was approximately like with Venezuela: a quick 'special operation', a few days - at most a week - and that's it.
This is exactly what the market took into account.
But if this drags on for a week or a month - then the reaction will be entirely different. And then we will see another spill.

JPMorgan believes that the adoption of the bill on the structure of the cryptocurrency market in the USA could become a positive catalyst in the second half of the year.
The bank expects that clear regulatory frameworks will enhance institutional interest and market stability.

The initiative is seen as a factor capable of supporting the influx of capital into crypto assets.

Approximately 9.09 million BTC, or about 46% of the total supply, are at a loss for their owners.

Aptos is holding a vote on setting a maximum emission limit of $APT at 2.1 billion coins.

Currently, there is no strict limitation. If a decision is made that is supported by about 99% of the votes, an upper limit on the supply will be established.

APT-5.86%

Bullish

$XAG (silver) long, on recent events (war) when in the world of war, gold and silver are rising like never before

XAG-5.48%

Bullish

Having taken $PAXG (gold) long, the war does not stop, so one can earn a little bit.

PAXG-1.15%

Bearish

I also try to short $BTC , the opinion is similar, the prolongation of the war for a week - another push down

After all, Israel and the USA attacked Iran.

There was no strong reaction in price, but that is only because part of this scenario was already priced in.

If the conflict drags on - I expect a spill.
I have already brought part of the funds to the exchange. I plan to buy BTC in the range of 57-53k$, and I will also be accumulating ETH.

If everything ends quickly, without serious escalation - the reaction will be minimal or there may be none at all.

For now, we are just observing.
Honestly - I hope they let me buy back normally 👀

$ETH $BTC

In Starknet, the launch of strkBTC is being prepared.

strkBTC is wrapped BTC with built-in privacy features. The token will operate in two modes: a standard transparent mode and a private mode, where balances and transfers are hidden from public blockchain observers.

$STRK

STRK-14.42%

Bearish

I'm trying to short $ETH , in my opinion, the war between Iran and the USA will give another push downwards

Today is the expiration of options on $BTC and $ETH .

The volume of open contracts: $7.5 billion in BTC and $975 million in ETH.

The main interest zone for BTC - $73,000.
The main interest zone for ETH - $2,200.

Bullish

Ethereum Foundation published Strawmap - a long-term roadmap for the network's development until 2029 with updates every six months.

Among the key goals is accelerating L1 with transaction finalization in seconds and achieving endgame finality by 2029.

Scaling is planned through the integration of zk-proofs into the protocol with a target of around 10,000 TPS and the implementation of mandatory zk-proofs and canonical zkVM.

The development of high-performance L2s with a throughput of up to 1 Gbyte/sec for rollups is also anticipated.

It is also announced that post-quantum keys will be implemented from 2026, a complete transition to new cryptography by the end of the decade, and the launch of native privacy with the possibility of private transfers $ETH at the network level.