Ethereum Price Analysis: Critical Technical Warning Flashes for ETH As $2.1K Seems Imminent
Ethereum has been notably bearish, marked by a sharp decline following a pullback to the lower boundary of a broken wedge, coupled with the formation of a death cross.
Despite this, the price is nearing a crucial support level that could lead to a short-term sideways consolidation.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
Ethereum has been in a strong downtrend, instilling fear and uncertainty among market participants. Low inflows into spot ETH ETFs have further underscored this sentiment, signaling reduced investor interest and the appearance of the death cross, where the 100-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.
Following a rejection at the lower boundary of the multi-month wedge and the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci levels, Ethereum has continued its decline, confirming the strength of sellers in the market.
However, the price is approaching a critical support zone, defined by the static $2.1K level and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,067. This area is expected to have a substantial demand, which could lead to a short-term pause in the downtrend, with potential sideways consolidation before Ethereum’s next move is determined.
Source: TradingView The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, ETH was firmly rejected from the resistance zone between the 0.5 ($2.6K) and 0.618 ($2.7K) Fibonacci levels, resulting in continued bearish momentum toward the $2.1K support. This level has held previously, particularly in early August, suggesting it might attract buyers looking to accumulate at these price points.
If demand resurfaces at the $2.1K mark, Ethereum may experience a temporary consolidation phase, pausing the downward pressure. However, if this crucial support is breached, it could trigger a long-liquidation event, potentially driving the price down toward the $1.8K region.
The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum can hold this support or if a deeper correction is on the horizon.
Source: TradingView Onchain Analysis
By Shayan
Ethereum’s value is fundamentally tied to its decentralized network and the active engagement of its users. One key metric to gauge this engagement is the number of unique active addresses on the network, which can serve as a valuable proxy for Ethereum’s overall market demand and valuation.
The chart showcases the 14-day moving average of Ethereum Active Addresses, which represents the total number of distinct active addresses, including both senders and receivers of ETH transactions. Since late March 2024, this metric has rapidly declined, highlighting a drop in user activity and transaction volumes.
This downward trend reflects a bearish market sentiment, with reduced demand and lower investor participation. For Ethereum to recover and potentially embark on a long-term sustainable rally, this trend must reverse. A resurgence in the number of active addresses would indicate growing interest and accumulation of Ethereum, signaling more robust demand and the possibility of a bullish market reversal.
Source: TradingView
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4 Bear and 3 Bull Scenarios for Ethereum (ETH) Price in September
That is if Ethereum can weather three big price hurdles ahead of it in September,
The Dencun upgrade’s introduction of low-cost blobs for Layer-2 blockchains to quickly scale the network to peers has unleashed a torrent of activity on Ethereum’s decentralized smart contract network.
Since then, gas fees in ETH on the base layer of Ethereum have declined significantly. Although that has reduced validators’ revenues, there has been a blossoming of activity on low-fee L2s.
Ethereum L2 monthly active users doubled after Dencun took effect in March. Meanwhile, fees to use Base, Mantra, Starknet, Blast, and OP Mainnet have declined dramatically.
But Ethereum has struggled this year to reflect its improvements and future prospects in a consolidated movement of the market. When it slipped to $2,400 this week, its price was back to where it was in February. By comparison, Bitcoin has been doing a little better this year.
So will Ether’s price continue to thrash and flail, or does it have an advantage over competitors like BNB, Solana, XRP, Tron, and Cardano in the near to medium term?
4 Ethereum Price Advantages In 2024
Here are four advantages Ethereum has going forward:
1. Another Wrapped Bitcoin On Ethereum
Natively put your idle BTC to work on Ethereum.
21BTC on Ethereum gives you: • BTC that’s native to Ethereum • No Lock-And-Mint technology • 100% Backed by BTC • Institutional-grade security • Deep liquidity • Operational excellence
Here’s what you need to know(/5) pic.twitter.com/CGY97mqeut
— 21.co (@21co__) September 3, 2024
21co, the owner of Bitcoin ETF issuer 21 Shares, just recently introduced another Wrapped Bitcoin asset on Ethereum.
This is a reminder: Your Bitcoin is a final settlement in a brutally scarce currency on the most secure Web3 layer blockchain —and Ethereum represents so many things you can do with it without just handing it over to the establishment it’s disrupting.
While Bitcoin is in a long-term holding phase because of its network effects and the growth prospects of each Satoshi’s value due to its ultimately addressable global market, when the dam breaks and the pent-up demand spills, Ethereum is certainly one place where holders will be spending it.
From finance, to insurance, to contracts, to CRMs, to supply chain management, to gaming, and online database solutions, the leading smart contract networks like Ethereum have a very big future ahead.
2. Institutional Adoption Marches On
Wall Street has so far laid only finicky hands on the Ethereum ETFs, with outflows creating resistance for Ether’s price. But the overall institutional stance toward the asset is still second only to Bitcoin, even as corporate project managers and institutional hedge funds flirt with Ethereum’s competitors like Solana and Cardano.
However, Ethereum and ERC20 Layer-2 protocol Polygon (MATIC) power most of the institutional products currently available on Web3. A recent X post from Adriano Feria, a popular ETH booster on social media, outlined the march of corporate projects using Ethereum.
“Hate to break it to the #Ethereum doubters, but $ETH is well on its way to securing solid institutional adoption, led by industry giants like Coinbase, Circle, BlackRock, and more recently, Sony,” Feria wrote.
With Sony’s announcement on August 22 that it’s launching its own Ethereum Layer-2 blockchain, Soneium, there could be some more market alpha in ETH’s future.
3. Ethereum Price Chart Technicals
ETH just had its worst month in two years, falling by 22% in August. Therefore, mean reversion theory dictates that its price will tend to move back toward its average trend over time, giving it support for a rally. Put in shoppers’ terms, Ether was on sale in August.
ETH may be undervalued based on expert predictions from some of the most active funds, publications, and banks in the Web3 space, in a recent study by CoinGecko:
What is Ethereum’s price prediction for 2024?
Our latest study reveals that top analysts, outlets, and fund managers predict #Ethereum will average $6,404 by the end of 2024.
Read the full study: https://t.co/FzuIYpuE9D pic.twitter.com/Lj5TXYtqkF
— CoinGecko (@coingecko) August 16, 2024
4. Dovish Fed Regime Pivot
The fact that new coins are produced means the money supply increases by a planned amount, but this does not necessarily result in inflation.
If the supply of money increases at the same rate that the number of people using it increases, prices remain stable.
— Satoshi Nakamoto Quotes (@QuotesNakamoto) July 5, 2024
The Federal Reserve chair announcing in August a pivot to lower interest rates is likely to galvanize crypto markets. As dollar supplies increase, there’s extra liquidity to pump financial markets like stocks and cryptocurrency.
There’s also a baked-in ethos among crypto investors to hedge dollar inflation using cryptocurrencies, especially those that strictly limit new supplies.
Ethereum is especially well-suited as one of these alternative sound money currencies. After the Merge transitioned it from a mined to staked cryptocurrency in Sept. 2022, it also introduced a burn feature that removes a small amount of Ether when transactions are made.
That helps limit supplies and so that ETH tokens hold their purchasing power parity against other currencies like Bitcoin and the US dollar.
3 Price Hurdles for Ethereum in September:
1. September Doldrums a Headwind
September is historically a slumpy month for financial markets. In stocks, it is the only calendar month to return an average negative ROI over the past 98 years. It has typically been choppy and slow for crypto assets as well, with seasonally high volatility and lower prices.
That means it can make a great entry point for crypto investors to buy assets at good value. It’s also not usually the time of year to sell to maximize earnings or minimize losses.
2. US Election Uncertainty
Markets are also fretting over the outcome of the U.S. election in November. A Harris win could lead to rising prices, higher taxes, and more expensive regulations.
A Trump win could lead to another multi-trillion dollar trade war with half the rest of the world, which was expensive for Wall Street the last time around.
3. Bitcoin’s Price Gravity Well
Ethereum’s valuation is closely related to the spot price of BTC. Over the course of the four-year cycle around Bitcoin’s supply halvings, there tends to be a mild bear market around this time after the event, leading up to multi-month rally to new record highs. That’s going to have an impact on altcoin prices.
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Can the XRP Price Reach $1 If Ripple Settles the $125 Million Fine With the SEC (ChatGPT Analyzes)
TL;DR
XRP’s possible surge to $1 could be fueled by additional developments on the Ripple v. SEC front, such as the company paying the penalty.
Other factors that may trigger a bull run include positive market sentiment and increased adoption.
Is There a Chance?
After a prolonged period of inactivity, the lawsuit between Ripple and the US SEC witnessed a massive development at the start of August. Back then, Judge Torres ordered the company to pay a $125 million penalty for violating certain securities laws.
The sum might sound substantial, but it actually represents a 94% deduction from what the regulator initially asked for. This caused numerous industry participants, including Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse, to describe the decision as a major win for the firm.
Lately, there have been increased rumors that Ripple might settle with the SEC as early as this week. We decided to ask ChatGPT whether such an action could fuel a price rally for XRP to as high as $1.
The AI-powered chatbot estimated that paying the penalty could be seen as a step toward reducing regulatory pressure around Ripple and its native cryptocurrency. As a result, the price might head north to the aforementioned target:
“A resolution with the SEC could alleviate concerns about potential legal setbacks for Ripple, leading to more positive market sentiment and possibly attracting new investors, which might drive the price higher.”
On the other hand, ChatGPT claimed there are other crucial factors that could play a role in such a rally. Some of the main ones include favorable market conditions, increased adoption, and additional support from exchanges.
The list of trading venues that introduced XRP services following Ripple’s first partial court win against the SEC last summer stretches far and wide. Some of those jumping on the bandwagon are Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, Crypto.com, and more.
Ripple’s Latest Filing
While some of the company’s executives agreed to the court terms, the actual payment of the fine might be delayed. This was revealed in a recent motion filed by Ripple, in which its lawyers requested a stay on the monetary portion of the Court’s Judgment entered last month.
The attorneys proposed moving 111% of the amount (roughly $138 million) to the legal team’s bank account as collateral. These funds are expected to stay there until 30 days after the appeal period ends. Both parties have until early October to challenge the initial ruling.
“Should the court of appeals vacate or modify the Judgment, the parties will attempt in good faith to reach an agreement about the appropriate treatment of the Fund and will submit to the Court any disputes they cannot resolve,” the letter reads.
Some industry participants speculated that this action might be followed by a potential appeal by the SEC. For one, the American lawyer Fred Rispoli said:
“Going through all this effort with establishing a trust for the funds boosts chances of an appeal IMO. But ultimately, this is just the safest play for SEC to buy time until the Oct. 7 deadline to appeal.”
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These Crypto Projects Are Seeing the Highest Increase in Whale Activity
While the crypto market remains unpredictable and continues dipping, large investors are not relenting in their activities.
Analysis by data intelligence firm Santiment has disclosed the top ten crypto projects with the highest increase in whale activity. In this context, whales refer to investors executing transactions valued at $100,000 or more.
Crypto markets may be unpredictable for now, but whales never fully sleep. Here are the 10 projects seeing the highest increase in whale activity (amount of $100K+ transactions):
The top three projects with rising whale activity are the Ethereum-based SuperRare, PepeFork, and the Arbitrum-based Stargate Finance, with 4,087%, 2,400%, and 2,083% growth in the past 30 days.
SuperRare is a non-fungible token (NFT) and digital art marketplace with a native token, RARA, that has a volume of $22.42 million. PepeFork (PORK) is a meme coin project with a volume hovering around $1.67 million. Stargate Finance (STG) is a composable liquidity transport bridge for omnichain decentralized finance (DeFi) with $5.56 million in volume.
Following RARE, PORK, and STG is the Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL). Its increased whale activity can be linked to the just-concluded token migration on the Polygon network. Earlier this week, the team released an upgrade that migrated the network’s native cryptocurrency from MATIC to POL.
It aimed to enhance the token’s utility and align with the protocol’s vision of an aggregated network of blockchains. POL witnessed a 1,345% spike in whale activity in the last 30 days.
The fifth project with the highest increase in whale activity is Carrieverse (CVTX), a web3 gaming metaverse, which witnessed 1,000% growth in the past 30 days. CVTX was followed by the self-sovereign identity network SelfKey (KEY), the DeFi liquidity marketplace Tokemak (TOKE), the consumer app developer Rally (RLY), the Ether restaking protocol Renzo (REZ), and the web3 game Voxie Tactics (VOXEL).
BTC and ETH on the Opposite End
Interestingly, the prices of most of the native tokens of these projects with rising whale activity have declined over the last thirty days, with some plunging by double digits, a reflection of the state of the market.
Meanwhile, major crypto assets, including bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Toncoin (TON), and Cardano (ADA), have seen a significant decline in whale activity. Although this trend may be a cause for concern, Santiment noted that whale behavior usually aligns with heightened market volatility and reveals when large players move their assets to capitalize on rapid price swings.
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Top 10 Solana (SOL) Ecosystem Projects By Development Activity
TL;DR
Due to recent growth, Solana and its projects have gained popularity.
Ecosystem meme coins like Dogewifhat (WIF) and Bonk Inu (BONK) have seen significant declines after a substantial surge earlier this year.
The Unsurprising Leader
Solana and numerous projects built on it have brimming in popularity in 2024. Some factors that could have contributed to this might be SOL’s bull run at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the growing community, and innovations in the ecosystem.
The crypto analytics platform Santiment recently outlined the top 10 Solana-based projects in terms of development activity in the past 30 days.
Somewhat expected, the first spot belongs to Solana itself, which collected a score of 186.33. It is worth noting that the protocol’s native token – SOL – has been experiencing a downfall since the end of July, plunging by approximately 30% and currently trading at around $127 (per Coingecko’s data).
Wormhole holds the second position with a ratio of 90.5. It acts as a bridge connecting various blockchain networks, such as Solana, Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, and others. It enables users to transfer digital assets and data across these blockchains without a centralized intermediary.
Pyth Network is third, with a score of 68. It operates as a decentralized oracle network where multiple providers contribute to a collective data feed.
JITO and Neon round up the top 5 list. The other Solana-based projects down the line include Drift, Orca, Helium IOT, Helium Mobile, and Metaplex.
The Missing Ones
It is interesting to note that meme coins, which are part of Solana’s ecosystem, did not make the list. Such tokens, including dogwifhat (WIF), Bonk Inu (BONK), and many more, were among the top-trending topics in the crypto space at the start of the year due to their skyrocketing prices.
However, their progress has stalled as of late. WIF – the biggest Solana-based meme coin in terms of market capitalization – currently trades at around $1.52, representing more than a 70% decline from the ATH registered in April.
BONK (the second-largest) is worth approximately $0.00001666 as of the moment, or 60% less than the peak in May.
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These Altcoins Bleed Out As Bitcoin (BTC) Price Fell By $4K in Hours (Weekend Watch)
Bitcoin’s nosedives continued in the past 24 hours as the asset slumped from an intraday high of $57,000 to under $53,000 within hours.
The altcoins are also in the red, and the total crypto market cap has dumped to $2 trillion for the first time in over a month.
BTC’s Troubles Keep Coming
The primary cryptocurrency lost the coveted $60,000 level last week, and the true downfall followed suit. Aside from a brief attempt to overcome that line on September 3, the bears have been predominantly in control, which culminated yesterday.
Before that, it was rejected a couple of times and marked lower daily highs. A relief rally came on Friday when the US released the job report for August, which showed that there was a slight decline in the unemployment rates.
BTC reacted quickly with a price increase from $55,500 to $57,000. However, that turned out to be a false breakout, and the cryptocurrency headed south immediately after. In a matter of minutes, it plummeted to $54,000 before the bears initiated another leg down that pushed it to a monthly low of $52,700 (on Bitstamp).
Despite recovering to just over $54,000 now, it is still 4% down on the day and more than 8% in the past seven days. Its market cap has plunged to $1.070 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is down to 53.5%.
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 07.09.2024. Source: TradingView Alts in Red Yet Again
The bearish scenario repeated once again, and the altcoins are back in red. Ethereum is among the leaders in this adverse trend, having lost over 4% of value. As a result, it now struggles at $2,250. BNB is down by 3%, XRP by 3%, and SOL by 2.5%.
DOGE has dumped the most from the larger-cap alts. The OG meme coin has seen 5% of its value evaporate over the past day and is below $0.1.
Further losses come from the likes of TON, BCH, SHIB, LTC, OKB, XMR, and many others.
The total crypto market cap has declined by another $50 billion and is down to $2 trillion on CG.
Vitalik Buterin Pledges L2 Tokens to Support Public Goods in the Ethereum Ecosystem
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has pledged to donate all Layer 2 (L2) tokens he holds to support public goods within the Ethereum ecosystem or broader charitable causes.
This announcement comes a few days after accusations that he had sold millions in Ether (ETH) for personal gain.
Vitalik Buterin Denies Profit Motive
Buterin was quick to respond to the allegations, emphasizing that he has not sold any ETH for personal profit since 2018. Instead, he clarified that any proceeds from his ETH sales have been directed toward projects that contribute to the Ethereum ecosystem or other charitable initiatives.
In a September 5 update, he expanded on his stance, pledging to donate all L2 tokens he holds, including not-yet-liquid assets, to support similar causes.
He wrote, “All proceeds will be donated, again either to support public goods within the Ethereum ecosystem or broader charity (e.g., biomedical R&D). I also do not intend to invest into L2s or other token projects in the foreseeable future.”
He explained that his aim in funding projects is to support initiatives he believes are important, particularly in situations where other parts of the ecosystem may not fully recognize their value.
The Allegations
On August 30, an X user accused him of selling over $2 million worth of ETH shortly after posting a positive update about Ethereum’s future.
Later on, Lookonchain also revealed that Vitalik had transferred 800 ETH, worth around $2 million, to a multi-signature wallet. Shortly after, the wallet swapped 190 ETH for 477,000 USDC.
Further analysis from Lookonchain indicated that on August 9, he had moved an additional 3,000 ETH, valued at over $8 million, to the same multi-sig wallet.
These transfers fueled speculation that the Ethereum co-founder was liquidating his Ether holdings to realize profits.
Buterin had previously disclosed that his entire Ether holdings came from the Ethereum pre-mining period, which allocated 11.9 million ETH (about 10% of the total supply) to early contributors. As one of them, he received 700,000 ETH for his role in the network’s creation.
According to blockchain tracker Arkham Intelligence, his current holdings amount to approximately 240,000 ETH. This is a reduction of around 460,000 ETH from his initial stash.
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Venezuelan Opposition Leader Proposes Bitcoin As National Reserve Asset
María Corina Machado, a leading figure in Venezuela’s opposition, has proposed a plan to adopt Bitcoin (BTC) as a national reserve asset.
In an interview with Alex Gladstein from the Human Rights Foundation on Thursday, she called the cryptocurrency a “lifeline” and a “vital means of resistance” against the country’s economic collapse.
Bitcoin as a National Reserve Asset
Her proposal seeks to address Venezuela’s inflation and financial instability, which she attributes to years of mismanagement by the governments of Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro.
Machado’s plan mirrors a recent suggestion by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who also advocated for a similar Bitcoin reserve for the United States.
The 56-year-old emphasized that the cryptocurrency could play a crucial role in the country’s recovery, not only as a tool to escape hyperinflation but also as a safeguard for wealth as the country rebuilds from years of economic devastation.
She criticized the financial policies of both Chávez and Maduro, “This financial repression, rooted in state-sponsored looting, theft, and unchecked money printing, crippled our economy despite our oil wealth,” she said.
The politician pointed out that many citizens have turned to Bitcoin as a means to shield themselves from the country’s volatile currency and government-controlled exchange rates. She said that using the cryptocurrency has allowed citizens to protect their wealth and, in some cases, finance their escape from the country.
“Bitcoin bypasses government-imposed exchange rates and helps many of our people… It has evolved from a humanitarian tool to a vital means of resistance,” she stated.
The opposition leader believes adopting it as a domestic reserve asset could help the South American country recover its stolen wealth and support its poorest citizens.
“We envision Bitcoin as part of our national reserves, helping rebuild what the dictatorship stole,” she said.
Rebuilding a New Venezuela
Machado also highlighted the people’s resolve to restore democracy, acknowledging their long-standing efforts in challenging the regime.
She spoke on the use of technology as a tool to secure financial independence and aid in rebuilding a liberated country, emphasizing that Bitcoin donations and assets would be protected from government seizure, making it a crucial part of her strategy for a peaceful transition away from dictatorship.
The former deputy of the National Assembly of Venezuela pointed out that her country’s currency has drastically lost value, with inflation soaring to 1.7 million percent and causing essential prices to double almost every two days. Since 2016, inflation has surpassed 8 million percent, prompting millions to flee for stability.
Looking toward the future, she envisions Bitcoin playing a central role in her nation’s recovery, ensuring transparency, property rights, and economic freedom.
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Bitcoin Price Crashes Toward $53K but Arthur Hayes Expects It to Plummet Further
Bitcoin’s price collapsed on Friday below $53,000, reaching its lowest level since the “Black Monday” following macroeconomic shakeups in early August.
The collapse appears to have fully corroborated the prediction of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who believes there could still be more pain to come for crypto holders.
Bitcoin traded for $56,925 at 1:25 PM UTC, before collapsing to $52,871 by 8:55 PM UTC. It trades for $53,500 at writing time.
On Thursday, Hayes predicted that Bitcoin could plummet even further over the next two days. “BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend,” he tweeted. “I took a cheeky short. Pray for my soul, for I am a degen.”
In early August, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $50,000 after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in over a decade. However, Bitcoin and the broader market quickly recovered as the BOJ promised not to raise rates further so long as it threatened market stability.
Yet Bitcoin and stocks are back on the decline as poor U.S. economic data this week continues to point towards a coming recession.
On Tuesday, Hayes already warned that Bitcoin could “slowly leak toward $50,000,” blaming rising deposits to the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP) for sucking money out of the broader market.
In his essay, he emphasized that his bearishness is “temporary,” and will likely only last until the end of the month before the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury inject the economy with more liquidity.
“I expect intervention to begin in late September,” he said. “Between now and then, Bitcoin will, at best, continue to chop, and altcoins could dive deeper into the gutter.”
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80% of Toncoin Holders Currently Underwater: Further TON Price Decline in the Cards?
TL;DR
Toncoin (TON) saw a sharp drop from its June high, currently trading 40% lower amid negative news, leaving nearly 80% of its investors at a loss.
On-chain metrics suggest that the asset’s price may tumble even more in the near future.
TON Investors Take a Blow
Toncoin (TON) experienced a real bull run at the start of 2024, with its price rising to a new all-time high of almost $8.20 in mid-June. However, the asset lost momentum towards the end of August and currently trades at around $4.80, or 40% less than the peak observed at the beginning of the summer.
TON Price, Source: CoinGecko
The price started declining after the arrest of Pavel Durov. Recall that the founder and CEO of Telegram was detained in France over accusations that the messaging app was used for illicit activity, such as drug trafficking, fraud, and child sexual abuse.
Toncoin (TON) is somewhat related to Telegram since it is the native cryptocurrency of The Open Network – a blockchain originally developed by the messaging application.
Somewhat expectedly, TON’s plunge negatively affected investors of the asset. IntoTheBlock data shows that nearly 80% of the holders are currently sitting on paper losses, whereas only 9.3% are in the green.
The only cryptocurrency from the top 15 club with a higher ratio of investors underwater is Cardano (ADA). Almost 85% of the token’s holders are in the red as of the moment.
The Correction Might Continue
One important metric suggesting that TON’s price could be on the verge of a further decline is the on-chain signal Large Transactions, which is down 0.46% daily. It is a momentum indicator showing the change in the number of transactions greater than $100,000.
Earlier this week, the popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez claimed that TON needs to reclaim the $4.70 support level “soon” to prevent a crash to as low as $2.60. Recall that the asset’s price jumped above the aforementioned mark on September 6.
#Toncoin needs to reclaim the $4.70 support level soon. If $TON fails to do so, a 45% correction down to $2.60 could be likely. pic.twitter.com/Jv0V47sXjQ
— Ali (@ali_charts) September 4, 2024
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Euler Finance Exploiter Congratulates Penpie Hacker for Stealing $27 Million
The person behind 2023’s Euler Finance hack has congratulated the Penpie exploiter after the latter moved the bulk of the funds they stole to Tornado Cash.
The Penpie thief transferred the money even as the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform pleaded for the funds to be returned in exchange for a bounty.
The $27M Penpie Protocol Hack
On Sep. 6, blockchain security company Peckshield made a post on X featuring the Euler Finance exploiter’s message to the Penpie protocol attacker that read:
“Good job bro. I didn’t see a hack like this for a while. I am happy you kept all the money and didn’t let these b*stards get back even one dollar of what you took. You won. They lost. Good job.”
Earlier this month, the decentralized protocol was attacked, and the culprits stole about $27 million worth of ether (ETH). Just 12 hours after the occurrence, the offender channeled $7 million through crypto mixer Tornado Cash.
According to Peckshield, the perpetrator recently transferred about $17 million in crypto to an intermediary address and subsequently laundered more than $13 million of the funds through the mixer. So far, the suspect has reportedly sent 9.6K ETH (about $23M) to Tornado Cash.
In the aftermath of the hack, the Penpie team halted withdrawals and deposits to investigate what happened and even reportedly went to Singapore’s Kampong Java Neighbourhood Police Centre to report the case.
Crypto Hacks on the Rise
In 2023, Euler Finance suffered a flash loan attack and lost nearly $200 million in crypto. Several weeks after the event, the thief refunded the stolen money and apologized via encrypted messaging.
Identified only as Jacob by Chainalysis, he started by delivering 54,000 ETH (3,000 on March 18 and 51,000 on March 25) to Euler, followed by 7,000 ETH and $10 million in DAI a few days later.
Although the cyber criminal eventually returned the funds, the exploit prompted the DeFi protocol to add a modular layer named Euler v2 to manage the risks that could render the lending network vulnerable.
Judging from the recent on-chain message sent by the perpetrator to Penpie’s hacker, their apology clearly had not been genuine.
A recent PeckShield report revealed that crypto platforms faced alarming losses exceeding $313 million due to hacks in August 2024 alone. Over 90% of those attacks, which saw platforms lose over $238 million, originated from phishing.
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Is the Ripple (XRP) Price in Major Danger? 4 Factors to Consider
TL;DR
Ripple’s XRP has dropped 10% in two weeks, with declining transaction activity and a broader market downturn suggesting that its correction may continue.
The ongoing Ripple v. SEC lawsuit could introduce more volatility for XRP, with recent legal developments sparking speculation of a potential appeal by the regulator.
XRP to Bleed Even More?
The past two weeks have been unpleasant for Ripple’s XRP, whose price tumbled by 10% and is currently trading at around $0.53 (per CoinGecko’s data).
XRP Price, Source: CoinGecko
While XRP bulls eagerly await a renewed price revival, some crucial factors hint that the correction might be far from over. The first element is the broader decline of the entire cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $56,000. It will be interesting to see whether the sector recovers some of the losses incurred in the following days and whether XRP could head north, too.
The second factor is the number of XRP payments from one account to another. Data shows that the figure has fallen from almost 570,000 on September 1 to 370,000 as of today (September 6). This indicates decreased processing activity and could be a sign of reduced engagement within the ecosystem.
For its part, the number of active XRP accounts is down 65% on a five-day scale, reinforcing the aforementioned worrying thesis.
Number of Active XRP Accounts, Source: XRPscan
Last but not least, we will touch upon the number of transactions that have been executed. The figure spiked above 1.5 million at the start of September, only to plummet below 850,000 on September 6. This decline could reflect a change in market sentiment, with some investors losing confidence in XRP, thus triggering a further negative impact on the price.
The Ripple v. SEC Case
The ongoing lawsuit between the two entities may also propel enhanced volatility for XRP in the near future. The legal battle reached a major milestone last month when Judge Torres ruled that Ripple must pay a $125 million fine for violating certain securities laws.
The sum represents a 94% deduction on the SEC’s initial request, which caused many industry participants to declare the decision a major win for the company. XRP’s price reacted positively, soaring by double digits shortly after the announcement.
Earlier this week, Ripple filed a motion requesting a stay on the monetary portion of the Court’s Judgment entered in August. The firm’s lawyers revealed that the regulator agreed with the proposed terms and delay of the payment (which was due on September 6).
Some X users assumed that this move could be a precursor of a potential appeal by the SEC, which might not be pleased with the initial ruling. The American attorney Fred Rispoli, for instance, said:
“Going through all this effort with establishing a trust for the funds boosts chances of an appeal IMO. But ultimately, this is just the safest play for SEC to buy time until the Oct. 7 deadline to appeal.”
It will be interesting to follow the news surrounding the case and check if they will have some impact on XRP’s valuation.
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What Happened to Jason Derulo’s Meme Coin? No Updates Since July
American singer and dancer Jason Derulo has not provided any updates about his meme coin JASON since July, raising concerns about the cryptocurrency’s fate despite multiple promises about its future and development.
On-chain sleuth ZachXBT brought Derulo’s silence on the project to light in a recent tweet, reprimanding influencers who promoted the token at its launch. Zach insisted that the influencers were wrong to believe that the JASON project would differ from the over 15 scams Derulo had previously promoted.
Derulo’s “Commitment” to JASON
Three months ago, Derulo joined the growing list of celebrities who have launched meme coins to unveil his project on the Solana network. The popular musician made several posts about the coin, created memes around the project, and encouraged community members to participate by investing in it.
As Zach recalled, Derulo assured users that he would not scam them like other celebrities had done. He proclaimed a long-term commitment to the crypto space and his project, stating that he wanted to “see everyone win in our community.”
Derulo even partnered with other projects, like the Solana-based Movement exchange, to simplify the onboarding process for crypto newbies looking to buy JASON. He also struck a deal that allowed JASON holders to purchase homes in Dubai with the token and attended several interviews about the project.
While some community members saw the possibility of Derulo’s efforts leading millions of new users to crypto, others criticized the project and questioned its legitimacy. In response to the skeptics, Derulo insisted that he had no fraudulent motive for his meme coin project because he was “rich af,” had a name and brand to protect, and had built billion-dollar companies.
JASON Plunges 87%
During Derulo’s active promotion of JASON, the token’s market cap surged as high as $27 million, with the singer implying that it could skyrocket to $1 billion over time. Since the frenzy and hype faded, JASON has lost over 87% of its value, and its market cap has plummeted to $1.28 million. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the token was worth $0.00122 at the time of writing.
Worse still, Derulo has not made an X post about the token since late July, when he said he was building a roadmap of partnerships and plans to help revive the project.
Meanwhile, Zach said Derulo made a post on September 3 promoting another meme coin but deleted the tweet shortly after.
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Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit Fall to Lowest Level Yearly, Here’s What It Means
The percentage of Bitcoin Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) in profit has fallen to its lowest level this year, last seen in October 2023. This decline in this metric aligns with the current plunge in bitcoin’s (BTC) price and the downward trajectory of the broader crypto market.
According to a report by CryptoQuant analyst EgyHash, this could be a sign of an incoming massive rally.
Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit Decline
A Bitcoin UTXO refers to the amount of cryptocurrency that remains after a transaction on the network. Analyzing UTXOs is often crucial in understanding investor behavior over different periods.
In June, 99% of Bitcoin UTXOs were in profit; however, that number had declined to 68.5% by September. EgyHash said the plunge suggests that some market participants have realized profits on their BTC investments, and their actions, coupled with ongoing selling pressure, have contributed to a fall in the value of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The last time the UTXOs in profit witnessed a similar decline, bitcoin’s price skyrocketed to a new all-time high, rising 273% from $26,700 to $73,000. This means a fall in this metric gives room for BTC to rally and possibly touch new highs. EgyHash’s analysis aligns with on-chain experts’ predictions of a second leg of the BTC bull run in the coming months.
An Incoming BTC Rally
Another pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst, Avocado, observed a slight uptick in Bitcoin UTXOs under six months, which they classified as new investors who entered the market earlier this year, likely around March, when BTC hit its all-time high.
Comparing the Bitcoin UTXOs under six months to past cycles, Avocado identified a similar pattern in 2019; investors holding the UTXOs have either exited the market due to losses stemming from bitcoin’s current state or held their BTC and transitioned into the six-month-and-above group. Regardless, bitcoin’s trajectory within the following 490 days led to a new all-time high.
Besides the decline in UTXOs in profit, bitcoin’s price has been stagnant for an extended period. Avocado attributed this stagnation to the reduced price volatility stemming from a relative increase in over-the-counter trading compared to exchange-based trading.
“While I have no doubt about the long-term upward trend, in the short term, I believe it’s wise to temper expectations and closely monitor the market,” Avocado stated.
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Crypto Prices Plummet, Trump V. Harris Developments, and More: This Week’s Recap
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by more than $110 billion during the last seven days. This continues the broader negative trend that’s engulfed the industry in the past few months, pushing its capitalization closer to $2 trillion.
Naturally, the decline comes on the back of disappointing performance on behalf of Bitcoin and most altcoins. Starting with BTC, its price crashed by a considerable 8% in the past week and is currently battling to maintain the important level of $55K.
It’s safe to say that BTC’s price action was nothing short of tumultuous throughout the past seven days, and the bulls failed to gain the upper hand. It wasn’t for the lack of trying, though. They attempted to break above $60K on September 3rd but the sellers were very quick to reappear and brought Bitcoin all the way down to $56K.
Buyers attempted a recovery above $58,000, but it was for naught. Today, the sellers took complete control and are currently attempting to break below $55K.
But that’s not even the most interesting bit.
Ethereum is also down by 8%, like BNB, Solana, and many other large-cap cryptocurrencies. Others, such as TON, Cardano, Chainlink, and Aptos, have it even worse, charting declines upwards of 12%.
Oddly enough, Bitcoin’s dominance – the metric that tracks its share relative to that of the entire market, remained more or less the same. This means that both Bitcoin and altcoins have declined similarly.
Elsewhere, the political scene in the United States is heating up. Donald Trump recently declared that he intends to reduce the corporate tax to 15% (from the current 21%) while also creating a ‘government efficiency commission’ that would be headed by Tesla’s boss, Elon Musk.
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, received strong support from multiple corporate leaders. One of the names in there raised a few eyebrows—Chris Larsen, the co-founder of Ripple. Others who signed the endorsement letter included the CEOs of Yelp, Box, Snap, and more.
In any case, the cryptocurrency market is heating up, albeit to the downside, and if one thing is certain, it’s that exciting times are ahead!
Source: Quantify Crypto This Week’s Crypto News You Can’t Miss
Donald Trump Wants to Make Elon Musk Head of ‘Government Efficiency Commission.’ Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s frontrunner for the next US President, recently said he intends to reduce the corporate tax in the country to 15% (from the current 21%). He also promised to create of a ‘government efficiency commission,’ headed by Elon Musk.
Ripple Co-Founder Endorses Kamala Harris for US President. Vice President Kamala Harris received strong support from 88 corporate leaders in an endorsement letter this week. One of the signees was Chris Larsen, the co-founder of Ripple.
Polygon Begins Transition from MATIC to POL: Here’s What You Need to Know. Polygon went through a massive update this week, marking the transition from the MATIC token to POL. The new ‘hyperproductive’ token is already live on the mainnet, and users might need to transition, although there’s no set deadline.
These Social Narratives Have Been Driving Crypto Markets Recently. Check out some of the more interesting social media narratives that have been causing waves in the cryptocurrency industry throughout the past few weeks.
Bitcoin L2 Core Launches Liquid Staking For BTC. The Core Foundation recently announced that it is launching a liquid staking token that’s backed by BTC. The move will take place on the Core network, which is also a BTC layer-two.
Bitcoin Runes Surpasses 50M Inscriptions in Under Five Months: ITB. Data from a popular analytics firm reveals that Bitcoin Runes have managed to surpass more than 50 million inscriptions in less than just five months after they launched.
Charts
This week, we have a chart analysis of Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Solana – click here for the complete price analysis.
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$150M in Liquidations As Bitcoin (BTC) Price Falls $2.5K in Minutes
Bitcoin had finally seen a minor relief rally that drove it to $57,000 after the US jobs report when the bears reminded of their presence and pushed it south hard.
The total liquidations have skyrocketed to about $150 million on a daily basis.
The primary cryptocurrency has faced its fair share of adversity in the past week or so, as its price tumbled from $65,100 last Monday to $55,500 earlier today.
This is when some positive news affected the market. As reported earlier today, the asset jumped to $57,000 after the US released the August jobs report, which outlined a minor decline in the unemployment rate.
However, that was another short-lived rally that actually turned out to be a false breakout. Instead of further increasing on the hopes of upcoming rate cuts in the States, BTC quickly retraced hard.
In a matter of minutes, the asset slumped by about two and a half grand from $57,000 to $54,400. This became its lowest price tag in exactly a month.
The altcoins followed suit, with ETH declining to $2,320, SOL dropping below $130, and XRP retracing to $0.53.
This volatility has harmed over-leveraged traders as over 45,000 such market participants have been wrecked in the past day. The total value of liquidations is up to $150 million within the same timeframe.
The single-largest wrecked position was a whooping one. It took place on HTX and was worth north of $13 million.
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More Pain for XRP Likely As Sellers Target $0.5: Ripple Price Analysis
Ripple has presented a solid bearish signal by breaking below the 200-day moving average of $0.55, highlighting the presence of sellers in the market.
However, the price is now battling to breach the 100-day MA at $0.53, and a successful break below this level could trigger a significant decline in the coming days.
XRP Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
A close analysis of the daily chart reveals that Ripple has been hovering near the critical 200-day moving average at $0.55, and recently, it slipped slightly below this level. Now, the price is at a pivotal support region, defined by the 100-day moving average of $0.53, which acts as a key barrier.
The overall daily outlook will become bearish if Ripple breaks below this level. If buyers defend this zone and hold the price above both daily MAs, there’s a chance for a bullish reversal. However, based on the current price action, a break below $0.53, leading to further decline, seems more likely.
Source: TradingView The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, Ripple remains within a crucial range, with support at $0.53 and resistance around $0.64. The current price action suggests that sellers are increasingly interested in breaking below the $0.53 support zone, which could lead to a significant price drop.
Ripple is currently testing this lower boundary, and a break below it, along with the wedge’s lower boundary, may trigger a liquidation event, pushing the price lower.
In this case, the next downside target lies between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. Alternatively, if buyers step in and defend the $0.53 level, a rebound toward the $0.60 mark could follow.
Source: TradingView
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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is $50K Imminent After Another 3% Daily Crash for BTC?
Bitcoin has been experiencing a bearish retracement following a significant rejection from the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This highlights the prevailing dominance of sellers, who seem to be intending to drive the price lower.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
A closer look at Bitcoin’s daily chart shows that after a surge toward the 100-day and 200-day moving averages around the $64K mark, the price faced intensified selling pressure and was notably rejected.
This resulted in a pullback to these broken moving averages, signaling the beginning of a bearish decline. The price action indicates that sellers are firmly in control, with the 100-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA to form a “death cross,” further reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Currently, Bitcoin has entered a key support zone defined by the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This zone could provide temporary relief from the downtrend, potentially leading to a period of sideways consolidation.
Source: TradingView The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price has seen a clear bearish rejection at the $64K resistance level, leading to a steady decline.
The failure to establish new higher highs has turned the market trend decisively bearish, with lower highs and lower lows signaling intense selling activity. Bitcoin now sits at a critical support zone defined by the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
If sellers push the price below this range, the next target is the key $50K support level, where significant buying pressure may reemerge. Conversely, if Bitcoin finds support at this level, a bullish rebound toward the psychological $60K resistance could materialize.
Source: TradingView On-chain Analysis
By Shayan
Examining futures market metrics can provide valuable insight into sentiment when assessing Bitcoin’s price movements. One key indicator is the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, which measures whether buyers or sellers are more aggressive in executing their orders.
The chart shows a significant decline in the ratio after Bitcoin’s rejection from the $64K level. This drop indicates a surge in market sell orders, reflecting a broader sentiment of distribution among traders.
This behavior underscores growing bearish expectations as traders are positioning for a possible breakdown and further price declines, potentially toward the $50K support level. The increase in sell-side aggression indicates a short-term continuation of the bearish trend.
Source: CryptoQuant
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Bitcoin Price Reacts to US Jobs Report and Declining Unemployment Rate
The Friday release of the US jobs report showed that the general expectations of over 160,000 job positions to be filled were not matched.
Bitcoin reacted with an increase toward $57,000 as the report could provide a clearer picture of what the US Federal Reserve is about to do in less than two weeks.
The country’s labor department announced that local employers added 142,000 new jobs in August, which was lower than the anticipated 160,000+.
Given the numbers for July and June, the results for August brought the three-month average to 86,000, which is still a lot less than the 202,000 seen in the year before the summer of 2024.
The silver lining for the US economy came in the form of the unemployment rates. As reported last month, the metric had soared to 4.3% for July, which was the highest since October 2021. For August, the rates declined slightly to 4.2%, in line with most experts’ expectations.
The data from above hints that the US Federal Reserve will indeed reduce the interest rates later in September, as Chair Jerome Powell hinted last month. According to most reports, the cut will be by 25 basis points.
BTC’s price was quick to react to the report released by the US government as it has been particularly susceptible to anything coming from the world’s largest economy lately. It went from $55,500 to $57,000 in a matter of minutes but has failed to overcome that level for now.
Ripple Co-Founder Endorses Kamala Harris for US President
According to a recent report, eighty-eight corporate leaders have signed a letter today, which endorses Kamala Harris for US president.
88 Corporate Leaders Show Support for Harris
CNBC reported today that a total of 88 corporate leaders and top executives from various companies in the US have formally endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in her run for the country’s upcoming presidential elections.
Interestingly enough, one of the signers is reportedly Chris Larsen – the co-founder of Ripple.
This is curious because Ripple Labs is involved in a massive lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission that has lasted almost four years.
The CEO of the company, Brad Garlinghouse, has been vocal about the fact that the country is not the best place to establish and run a crypto-related business, recently advising founders to steer clear of it.
Other executives, most notably the CEOs of Box—Arron Levie, Yelp—Jeremy Stoppelman, Snap—Michael Lynton, and others—are among the signers.
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