SVIATOSLAV GUSEV

$BTC after a weak NFP holds near October highs — the market is no longer “waiting for the report,” but deciding whether this is a breakout or a false exit.

Figures (The Block / Crypto Briefing / CoinGlass, Oct 2). September’s NFP — about 29k jobs added versus a consensus around 90k; unemployment 4.2%. FedWatch: probability of a hold in October ~82% (a week ago ~36%). Price after the peak stays above 87 000$ moves around 86,700$–86,900$. The next ask cluster on Glassnode — about 87,000$, roughly twice as thin as the old wall at 85k. QCP: resistance ~87,400$ as the gateway to 90k; nearest support — the 85,000$–85,200$ zone; below that 84k and ~83,500$.

Futures turnover over 24h — about 70$ bn versus ~6.3$ bn spot.

Scenarios. Up: a close and hold above 87 400$ opens the way to 90k with a thin ask. Down: a selloff back to 85k after the squeeze will return 84k / 83,500$ — the same empty order book turns faster.

My take: a weak payroll removes the hike rate, but by itself doesn’t buy above 87k. As long as futures are 10x fatter than spot, that’s leverage and cover, not proven spot demand. Don’t focus on the NFP headline— watch whether 85k holds as the floor after the impulse.

Question: does $BTC close the day above 87k — or pull back to test 85k as the new support?
$BTC #Bitcoin

$BTC breaks through the ask-side liquidity wall around 85k — it’s not only “the market priced in the NFP.” At the same time, shorts were deflated: part of the move toward October’s local high — a classic short squeeze on an empty order book.

Figures (Cointelegraph / CoinGlass / Crypto Briefing, Oct 2). In 24h, short positions on $BTC — about 122$ mln liquidations; across the whole crypto market — roughly 210$ mln. On Bitstamp, the day’s high is around $86,857. Earlier in the week, around 85,700$ , more than 30$ mln sell orders were hanging — buyers removed that wall. CoinGlass shows a new cluster of potential liquidations above ~87,300. Separately: within a single window of about 10 minutes, roughly 110$ mln shorts across the market were burned.

My take: forced cover is the fuel for the impulse, not proof of sustained demand. As long as the ask above the price is thin, the move up looks easy; once the cluster above 87k starts getting defended, or macro (NFP) hits back — the same mechanism will flip downward even faster. Don’t look for “who’s right on the NFP,” but whether the open interest in shorts below the price is still there or has already been burned out.

Question: Does $BTC hold 86k after the shorts got squeezed — or was that just a one-off squeeze without a second buyer?
$BTC #Bitcoin #liquidations

There are still a few hours until the NFP, yet $BTC has already moved up to the day’s local high—against the backdrop of yields that have been weighing on it all through September. This isn’t “the market already knows everything,” but rather a bet that today’s US employment report will determine whether the October hike is still alive.

Numbers (CoinDesk / FXStreet / CNBC, morning of Oct 2): $BTC is briefly above 86,885, around 86k—about +1.5% on the day and roughly +3% since the start of October. September NFP consensus is ≈90k (August was +162k); unemployment rate 4.1%; AHE +0.3% m/m. Some surveys are closer to 84k. Early on, 10y is around 5.24% after the week’s peak of ~5.34%; 30y is ~5.62%. DXY is briefly above 102—an 18-month high. CME FedWatch: roughly 72% for a hold in October (earlier in the week the odds for a hike rose to ~70%, then pulled back after softer Core PCE at 3.0% y/y). Market thresholds: above 100k—talk of a hike and a strong dollar returns; below 50k—pressure on the USD; 50–100k—doesn’t change much for the price of the October meeting.

My take: $BTC broke the top of the weekly range of 82–85k up to the figure, not after. If NFP is weak and yields move below—then that confirms that the risk asset has already priced the risk correctly. If payrolls >100k and 10y pulls back toward 5.3%+ again—today’s bounce to 86k looks like a classic pre-data squeeze. Don’t just watch the headline; look at AHE and revisions: soft jobs alongside sticky wages is still hawkish for the Fed.

Question: does $BTC hold 86k after 14:30 Warsaw time—or does NFP pull us back into the 82–85k range?
$BTC #Bitcoin #NFP

Open USD (OUSD) launched on Sep 30 — and today, Oct 1, access opens via Coinbase. This is not another DeFi yield stablecoin: it has a payments consortium behind it and >1$ bn in seed liquidity. The question isn’t “is the teaser pretty?”, but whether real volume will move outside of crypto exchanges.

Numbers (Stripe / CoinDesk / Unchained, Sep 30 → Oct 1). Open Standard: Coinbase, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe, Visa founders — equal shares. Issuer Bridge (Stripe). Networks: Ethereum, Solana, Base, Tempo. Reserves at BlackRock, Lead Bank, and BNY, with monthly attestations. Founders set aside >1$ bn for seed supply; Tempo showed >400$ m on day one in OUSD liquidity. Mint/redeem for businesses is 1:1 with no mint/burn fee. Partners already >200. Trading: Coinbase, Kraken, Uniswap; Stripe/Mastercard/Visa — already now, Coinbase — from Oct 1.

My take: payments giants are building “money for business,” not yet another basis-trade stable. Free mint/redeem and distribution via Stripe/Visa/MC matter more than any slide deck target. But >1$ bn in seed and >400$ m on day one on Tempo is just the start of the offering, not proven demand. Until we see actual mint/redeem volumes and share of activity outside CEX, OUSD remains an infrastructure launch rather than a leader swap in the stablecoin market.

Question: by the end of October, will OUSD build sustainable turnover through payment rails, or will it remain liquidity on Tempo/CEX without real business flow?
#stablecoin #OUSD

Standard Chartered has unveiled Ethena’s coverage: USDe from ~4,9$ bn to 40$ bn by the end of 2028, and ENA to $2. A pretty 8× chart — but supply was already compressing from the peak above 10$ bn. The question isn’t “do you believe the bank?”, but what must become true for the buyback math to hold.

Numbers (The Block / Cointelegraph / CryptoSlate, note SC as of Sept 30). USDe now ~4,9$ bn → target 40$ bn end-2028. ENA ~0.26–0.28$, target 2$ (~7×). Fee switch: 95% of net revenue goes to the ENA programmatic buyback. At 40$ bn USDe and ENA price as it is now, SC estimates annual buybacks at ≈23% of circulating mcap — and they themselves write that this is unsustainable, meaning the price “must” rise. UNI benchmark: after the fee switch, buybacks settled at ~3–4%. Blended yield ~5.2% — the basis trade weakens, while the protocol pulls in RWA / DeFi / institutional lending. Ethena is the 4th stablecoin issuer and the 2nd among yield-bearing after Sky; yield-bearing is still ~5% of the market. At 25$ bn USDe, Ethena itself assessed ~375$ million/year buybacks.

My take: the bank is selling scale and buyback, while the market has already seen how USDe deflates from >10$ bn to ~4.9$. An 8× move from the current base isn’t a continuation of the trend, but a reversal of shrinkage. Until RWA and yield-bearing prove growth, a 23% mcap buyback isn’t a bull case — it’s a stress test of the model: either ENA gets more expensive “out of necessity,” or the USDe supply won’t reach 40$ bn. For crypto, it’s more important whether Ethena can regain scale without an endless basis trade than whether the $2 target is hit.

Question: Will USDe return closer to the previous peak by the end of 2026, or will the SC forecast remain a slide without execution?
#Ethena #stablecoin

Nine green days for the spot-$BTC ETF ended on the last trading day of September—and on the same day $ETH and $SOL also flipped to red. This is no longer a “pause on a single shelf,” but a synchronized outflow day across three of the main crypto ETFs.

Numbers (Farside / FinanceFeeds / Altcoin Buzz, session Sep 30 → publication Oct 1). Spot-$BTC ETF: −148,7$ mln — the streak ended, from Sep 17 to Sep 29 (~3,1$ bln in total). Within the day: Fidelity FBTC −125,6$ mln, Bitwise BITB −13,6$, BlackRock IBIT −9,5$. The week of Sep 21–25 produced ≈2,39$ bln on its own; the peak on Sep 21 was +999$ mln. Spot-$ETH ETF: −59,6$ mln (earlier in the day it was only −2,8$ — the seven-day streak was already broken; the decline accelerated). Spot-$SOL ETF: ≈−12,5$ mln after seven green days. Together ≈221$ mln net outflow. $BTC, after the PCE pop, is back above 85 500$ again at about 83.4–83.7k; 10y ~5,28%, 30y ~5,62%. Cum $BTC ETF since launch ~57,6$ bln—one red day doesn’t negate that.

My take: −148,7$ mln versus 3,1$ bln over nine sessions is a test, not a cycle reversal. But what’s more important is the composition: almost the entire hit to $BTC was FBTC, while $ETH and $SOL went negative at the same time. A soft PCE lifted the price and didn’t hold it, while yields remain near multi-year highs. If, before Friday’s employment report, the $BTC ETF returns to the green—then the September institutional bid wave is still alive. If the minus repeats and $ETH remains on acceleration—that’s a shift in the flow regime, not “just one red day.”

Question: Will the $BTC ETF manage to turn green again by NFP on Oct 2, or is the triple outflow on Sep 30 the start of a red week?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Bitcoin #ETF

PCE came in softer than consensus — and the morning filter worked: 10y yields pulled back, FedWatch kept October under the coin, $BTC broke through the 85k zone. Not a “victory over inflation,” but a removal of urgency for October.

Figures (BEA / CNBC / CME FedWatch / Invezz / CryptoBriefing, Sep 30). Headline PCE August: +0.3% m/m → 3.4% y/y vs. Dow Jones consensus 0.3% / 3.7%. Core: +0.2% m/m → 3.0% y/y (expected 0.3% / 3.3%). Spending +0.9% with income +0.2%. After the release, FedWatch: keeping the rate in October at ~52.9%, hike +25 bps ~47.1%; for December the market is still dragging it out. 10y fell from the morning ~5.28–5.29% to ~5.23%. $BTC above ~85 500$ (up from ~83k in the morning). Q2 GDP final was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%.

My take: by morning, JOLTS and Williams already knocked FedWatch off the coin from ~70%; PCE didn’t flip the narrative — it cemented it with a number. A soft core with spending still alive = the Fed may not rush in October, but the 2% target is still far, and December hasn’t been ruled out. For $BTC, a shift in timing and a 10y pullback matters more than “deinflation is ready.” The institutional bid in the ETF this morning (+66$ m) now lines up with macro easing — hence the jump over 85k, not a “new cycle” from a single print.

Question: will soft PCE and 10y below 5.25% be enough for $BTC to hold 85k until Friday’s payrolls, or will the market bring back urgency for October?
$BTC #Bitcoin #PCE #Fed

Seven days of green spot-$ETH ETF inflows were cut off — and on the very same day, $BTC and $SOL are still up. A discrepancy within the institutional shelf, not a general “exit”.

Figures (SoSoValue / Farside / FinanceFeeds / Lookonchain, Sep 29–30). Spot-$ETH ETF on Sep 29: −2.81$ m — the end of the seven-day streak of inflows that started around Sep 18. Within the day: Grayscale ETH +12.83$ m, BlackRock ETHA −8.94$ m, Fidelity FETH −6.7$ m. Group NAV ~17.79$ bn (~5.4% of $ETH’s market cap), cum ~13.95$ bn. A day earlier it was still +17.1$ m. At the same time, the spot-$SOL ETF +5.4$ m (BSOL +5.7$) — the seventh green one; the $BTC ETF had already been breaking down in the morning (+66.2$ m, ninth day). $ETH is around $2,650–2,690.

My take: in the morning I checked the macro and the bid in $BTC — by daytime, it’s a different shelf. The break in the $ETH series at −2.8$ m after a heavy week (~+690$ m as of Sep 25) — that’s a slowdown, not a reversal. ETHA and FETH pulled out, Grayscale took it — the net is tiny. As long as $BTC and $SOL keep posting green days, a weak $ETH looks like rotation within crypto-ETFs rather than an escape from risk. PCE is still ahead — it will determine whether this is a “pause in accumulation” or the start of a red week for alt-ETFs.

Question: tomorrow will the $ETH ETF swing back to positive together with $SOL, or will the downside spread across BlackRock/Fidelity and continue?
$ETH $SOL $BTC #Ethereum #ETF

JOLTS cooled off, and in a single day FedWatch cut the odds of an October hike to almost a coin’s worth — yet $BTC is still around 83k. The market has already repriced the Fed’s odds, but the price of money and spot still haven’t.

Figures (BLS / Farside / CME FedWatch / Reuters, Sep 29–30). JOLTS for August: vacancies 7.079M versus consensus 7.23; July was revised to 7.335M. 10Y Treasuries ~5.28–5.29% — the highest since 2007; 30Y up to ~5.6% intraday. FedWatch: the probability of a +25 bp move at the October FOMC fell from ~70–74% to ~47–50% after Williams’ remarks. Spot-$BTC ETF on Sep 29 still added +66.2$ M (IBIT +51.1$); on Sep 28 +31.$ M — the ninth straight green day since Sep 17; cum ~57.7$ B. $BTC ~83,000–83,200. Today’s filter is PCE.

My take: softer labor and the FedWatch shift lower are not a “ready-made reversal” for $BTC as long as the 10Y holds the zone above 5.2%. Institutional bid in the ETF is alive, but it’s thin (+66.2$ M) — it absorbs rather than accelerates. If PCE doesn’t reignite the inflation narrative, the odds of a return above 85k increase; if it does, 82.5–83k is the line of defense again.

Question: what matters more for $BTC today — confirming FedWatch below 50% after PCE, or holding 10Y below 5.3%?
$BTC #Bitcoin #Fed #JOLTS

The spot-$XRP ETF is already holding almost as many coins as Ripple can release from escrow on October 1. Institutional wrappers are accumulating, and the spot is around 1,48$ — up from last week’s high.

Figures (Bitcoin.com / SoSoValue / The Crypto Basic, Sept 25–28). Seven spot-$XRP ETFs in the US: 1,179.62 million XRP (~1.18% of the fixed supply of 100 billion), AUM ~1.77–1.82$ billion. Top custody: Bitwise ~413 million, Franklin XRPZ ~293 million, Canary XRPC ~250 million. Week Sept 21–25: +75.59$ million inflow (Bitwise +58.99$, Franklin +16.60$). Franklin XRPZ crossed 500.99$ million in cumulative inflows. Ripple escrow: another 31.98 billion XRP; the Oct 1 window — up to 1 billion XRP (~1.5$ billion). A single monthly high is about ~85% of the entire ETF stack since launch. Spot ~1,48$ versus the Sept 23 high ~1.66$; AUM is slightly below cumulative inflows (1.77 vs 1.79$ billion).

My take: in the morning, $BTC was getting squeezed by rates; during the day, $ETH was being accumulated via ETFs and staking. In the evening, a different shelf—$XRP: demand in regulated wrappers is real (75.$ million for the week, Franklin at 500$), but the ceiling for a single unlock is comparable to the entire ETF stack. Historically, most of it gets pushed back into escrow, but the price no longer follows inflows. The question isn’t “will they unlock or not”—it’s how much will be returned to lock, and how much the ETF tape will manage to absorb after October 1.

Question: On October 1 will $XRP be a non-event again, or will we see the first unlock where ETF custody no longer outweighs the float?
$XRP $BTC #XRP #ETF

$BTC around 83k on the fifth consecutive red session—especially considering that spot BTC ETFs just took the best week since October 2025. Flows are there, but prices aren’t: the market is trading not “who bought,” but the cost of money.

Figures (Proactive / SoSoValue / CME FedWatch, Sep 28–29). $BTC ~83,100–83,500$ after the low ~82,600; a week ago it was above 87k. $ETH ~2,680–2,690. Spot-$BTC ETF for the week ending Sep 25: ~2,4$ b — highest since Oct 2025; Friday was still +134,5$ m, together with $ETH/$SOL products ~308$ m; Sep 28 +31$ m (8th straight day in the green). 10y treasuries ~5.23% — highest since 2007. Brent ~105–107. FedWatch: chance of a +25 bps move on the October FOMC around 65–70%. Today JOLTS, tomorrow PCE, and Friday payrolls.

My take: institutional bids are alive, but with 10y above 5.2% they are absorbing drawdowns—not fueling a rally. As long as yields and oil hold the inflation narrative, $BTC is trading the data week and the October FOMC, not “ETF again green.” The 82.5–83k zone is the first line; a return above 85k will signal that flows have again outweighed rate-hike expectations.

Question: what matters more for $BTC this week—holding 83k on JOLTS/PCE, or pushing FedWatch down from ~70% hike?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Fed

Strategy surpassed its June stack record: $847,666 BTC. They bought on the dip to ~83k, and again, slightly more money went into buying back preferred shares than into Bitcoin itself.

Figures (The Block / 8-K Strategy, purchases Sept. 21–27, report Sept. 28). +1,665 BTC for ~142.7$ million at an average of $85,681. Stake: 847,666 BTC (~70.6$ B market value) with an average stake of 75,437$ and total costs of ~64$ B — more than 4% of the 21M cap. Paper plus of about 6.6$ B. Funding: ATM on MSTR (~1.47M shares sold in a week for ~246.2$ M); 103.5$ M was spent on $BTC from ATM + 48.1$ M cash. At the same time, the STRC buyback is ~151.7$ million – again exceeding the coin check. As of Sep 27: USD Reserve 5.02$ billion, Cash 1$ billion; ATMs still have ~18.84$ billion of limit.

My take: in the morning, GEO and rates were putting pressure on spot, while during the day, institutions were accumulating $SOL via ETFs. In the evening, the corporate bid is more important: a stack record at a price below the average weekly buy is not a "buy on the high," but rather a drawdown. But the capital structure is the same as last week: preferred and ATM funds are sharing the flow with $BTC. For the market, it's more important that 847k has been broken and the ATM is even bigger than the size of a single check.

Question: Will Strategy accelerate its climb above 850k over the next two weeks, or will STRC/dividends again take more cash than spot $BTC?
$BTC#Bitcoin#Strategy

Spot-$SOL ETF closed the best week since launch: +188$ mln over five sessions. This is no longer just a Bitcoin footnote—institutions are separately accumulating Solana, even though the token is still far from its all-time high.

Figures (CoinDesk / SoSoValue / Solana, week ending Sep 25). Weekly net inflow for the spot-$SOL ETF: 188$ mln—an all-time record since listing. Friday accounted for almost half: ~87$ mln in a day—also a maximum since launch. Bitwise BSOL took ~128$ mln (~68% of the week); Grayscale GSOL ~28$ mln, Fidelity FSOL ~18$ mln, and the other four funds still ~14$ mln—so all seven baskets are in the green. Cumulative for the group is ~1,6$ bln, with BSOL at about 1,2$ bln. $SOL is trading around 119–120$ —roughly 60% below ATH near 293.

Meanwhile, developers are testing Alpenglow: the goal is payment finality from ~12.8 seconds down to ~150 ms, and mainnet dates are not yet set.

My take: this morning I was looking at geo and rates through $BTC. Later, another shelf mattered more—an alt-ETF shelf—where the record came with the price still far from the high. Buying is going through a broker product, not a spot pump: either a patient build-up in an “undervalued” L1, or inflows that are still too small to drive the token by themselves. The concentration in BSOL (staking) suggests institutions care about the yield narrative as well—not just “another L1.”

Question: will the coming weeks broaden demand beyond Bitwise and keep $SOL above 120, or will this remain a one-fund trade against a soft price?
$SOL $BTC #Solana #ETF

$BTC holds ~83k amid the US backing away from the Ormuz deal — there’s a dip, but not a crash: the market has been repricing not crypto, but rates for a month.

Figures (CMC / CME FedWatch, 28 Sep). $BTC, from ~84.4k over the weekend, dropped to ~83 050$ (−1.6% over the day); at the weekly peak it was above 85k. $ETH ~2 646$ (−1.9%). Market cap ~2,86$ T (−1.2%). Liquidations in 24h ~330$ M (longs ~231$ M). Brent around $104. 10y Treasuries are above 5% since the start of the conflict. FedWatch: the chance of a +25 bps move at the October FOMC is ~64.8% (hold 35.2%); a month ago the hike was ~17.7%. Ahead: PCE on Sep 30 — the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

My take: it’s a simple channel: Ormuz pulls oil, oil drives inflation expectations and yields, yields translate into the probability of a hike and pressure on risk. $BTC, meanwhile, isn’t breaking 80k: last week’s spot ETFs pulled in ~2,2$ B over 4 sessions and cushioned both geo and Bitget. The price isn’t trading “peace or war,” but the October FOMC and Friday’s PCE.

Question: the next $BTC impulse — a bounce if PCE cools hike-rate expectations, or first a test of 83–83.3k while 10y stays above 5%?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Fed

Bitget again raised the hack assessment to 387,5$ million — and already more than half of the stolen $XRP has left the original wallets. Ripple cannot freeze native $XRP: this isn’t a protocol bug, it’s by design.

Figures (CoinDesk / Bitget, Sep 26–27). Total damage: 387,5$ million (it was 351,6$ million — Zcash and TRON were added). Of ~103 million $XRP, the attacker has already taken out ~54 million (~83$ million) from three holding wallets; in the original five, there remains about ~75$ million that cannot be frozen on the XRPL. Circle and Tether separately froze ~320 000$ related stablecoins. The exchange says it will close the fund with a protection fund; withdrawals of $BTC — starting Sep 28, $ETH — Sep 29, USDT — Sep 30, and the rest — from Oct 2.

My take: in the morning and during the day, I watched inflows and the strong Q3. In the evening, something else matters more — the market is rising, while the return of funds still runs into the rules of a specific network. Stablecoins can be blacklisted; native $XRP — cannot: after that, it’s only exchanges that will accept the stolen funds for deposit. For the price of $BTC, it’s noise; for infrastructure, it’s a reminder that exchange insurance and on-chain freezing are different things.

Question: after cases like this, do institutions push harder on custody and white-list, or do they simply shift the risk onto the exchange’s insurance fund?
$XRP $BTC #Bitcoin #XRP

Q3 is almost closed: for $BTC the second-best third quarter in history (~43.5%), while $ETH has the best Q3 ever (~71%). This is no longer a “summer rebound,” but a full reversal after two negative quarters.

Figures (CoinGlass / Bitcoin.com as of Sep 26–27). $BTC: from ~58,500$ at the beginning of July to ~84–84.5k — about +43.5%; only Q3 2017 was better (~80.4%). The average Q3 across history on CoinGlass is ~8.7%, the median is ~2.3%. $ETH: +71% for the quarter, above the previous record ~66.5% (2025). At the same time, on Sep 25 about ~15,6$ billion options on $BTC expired on Deribit — the price after expiration was around 83.6k, with no breakdown; it’s still holding above 84k. The quarter isn’t closed yet (until Sep 30), figures are provisional.

My take: this morning I looked into the YTD flip on spot ETFs. During the day, the quarterly framework mattered more — the market filled the gap after Q1/Q2 drawdowns and went through a major expiry without panic. But price is still trading in the 84–85k zone after the week’s high around ~87k: a strong Q3 doesn’t automatically mean “Uptober.” October is historically strong, but first the base needs to be held after the rally.

Question: does $BTC push Q3 above 85–87k and enter October with momentum, or is there first a pause and profit-taking before the new quarter?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum

Spot BTC ETF for the first time in 2026 is back in the green for the year — and the reversal is linked not to the “halving,” but to buybacks of long-duration Treasurys of the Ministry of Finance.

Figures (The Block / SoSoValue, week to Sep 25). Spot $BTC ETF: +2,4$ billion over the week — best result since October 2025. YTD: +934,1$ million in the green (as of July 13 it was −5,8$ billion). IBIT for the same week +1,2$ billion. Spot $ETH ETF: +689,9$ million (a week earlier −140$ million). $SOL ETF on Friday — record day +86,7$ million (Bitwise BSOL 55,7$ million), total AUM ~1,5$ billion. Cumulative BTC ETF since launch: 57,6$ billion in net inflows, AUM 108,4$ billion. Geraci: after the announcement of the Ministry of Finance buybacks, about 5,3$ billion flowed into spot.

My take: yesterday I looked at the daily momentum and yield. Today the annual figure matters more — in two months the market has closed the gap by almost 6$ million. The price isn’t rushing to 90k while inflows are still live: the ceiling is still in bonds. But the YTD flip itself says institutions haven’t left — they were waiting for liquidity from buybacks.

Question: the next $BTC push — a break of 87–90k on continued ETF inflows, or does it need a pause first while 10y cools down?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Bitcoin #ETF

Strategy bought more $BTC again — but on the buyback of its preferreds it spent more than on bitcoin. Strive, in the same week, managed to overtake her in buying volume.

Figures (8-K / Decrypt / CoinDesk, week as of Sep 20). Strategy: +950 BTC for $75.7$ million at an average of $79,670; stack 846,000 BTC (average cost $75,416, total $63.80$ billion) — to the June record of 847,363 BTC, it’s short by 1,363 coins. At the same time, the STRC buyback: $174$ million — more than on $BTC. Strive: +1,355 BTC for about $107.7$ million, stack 26,355 BTC. Plus: on Sep 25, Strategy submitted for a vote the Oct 28 daily dividends on preferred shares (STRC and others) — the goal is to bring STRC closer to $100.

My take: corporate demand is alive, but it’s no longer “only Saylor printing.” Treasuries are competing, and Strategy’s capital is going into the preferred-share balance as well—not just into coins. For $BTC, the pace of treasury + ETF matters more than a single weekly check for 950.

Question: in the next two weeks — will Strategy beat the 847k record, or will even more money be routed into STRC than into $BTC?
$BTC #Bitcoin #Strategy

PMI in the US at a five-year high—and the market is already pricing in another four Fed hikes through June 2027. $BTC, after a local high of ~87 500$ , is sitting around 84,000: this isn’t “demand gone,” it’s the price of money.

Numbers. S&P Global composite PMI for September: 58.4—strongest business expansion in 5+ years (CoinDesk, Sept 24). After the Sept 16 hike (range 3.75–4.00%), CME FedWatch sets the base case by June 2027 at 4.75–5.00%—i.e., another four 25-bp steps. The chance of yet another +25 bps at the Oct 27–28 meeting is about 70–75% (FedWatch / reports Sept 25). Meanwhile: DXY above 101, local high $BTC ~87 500$ —toward the 83–84k area.

My take: this morning I looked at live ETFs with the 10y above 5.2%. In the daytime, the other thing matters more—not a one-off yield shock, but a prolonged cycle. As long as PMI is 58+ and core PCE is around 3.4%, the policy rate is a trajectory, not a one-time episode. Spot may still hold bids, but leverage and alts are breathing with this cycle.

Question: if the October hike sticks around 75%—will $BTC first push through support below 80k, or will institutions buy the dip again into the FOMC?
$BTC #Bitcoin #Fed

7 consecutive days of spot BTC ETFs pulling in more than 100$ million per day — and 10-year Treasuries are already above 5.2%. Price is around 84 000$ , not breaking upward, even though institutions don’t turn off the tap.

Numbers. Sep 25 (Farside): spot BTC ETF +134,5$ million — the seventh straight trading day with net >100$ million; over 7 sessions total ~2,978$ billion. Spot ETH ETF +87$ million — the sixth green day in a row. At the same time, 10y touched 5.22% (highest since 2007), 30y — about 5.51% (levels from 2004). Open interest for BTC on major exchanges from Sep 22 to 25 was cut by ~1,7$ billion (−14.3%), while the coin itself over the same period fell by ~2%.

My take: yesterday they fixed the annual ETF account. Today you can see something else: inflows are alive, while the price ceiling sets the pace—debt and rates, not a lack of demand. The market trims leverage faster than the spot market—this is a healthy pause, not a reversal of the flow.

Question: with 10y above 5.2%, will the next impulse for BTC come from even fatter ETF days, or do bonds need to pause first?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #ETF