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The bears are here! Has the trend reversed?
The sharp reversals over the past two days have cost the market a lot of positions. BTC fell before the election, then rebounded afterward, climbing back to 81K. But sustained buying never materialized. Then U.S. tech stocks plunged, and crypto funds followed suit and pulled out. Active selling and long liquidations amplified each other. Now we're testing support at these lows again, waiting to see whether tonight's jobs report can bring buyers back.
The bulls are betting on the jobs report again tonight. The previous reading was 29,000, and the forecast is 69,000.
Fundamentals have had a big impact over the past two days. The crisis between the U.S. and Iran remains unresolved. Oil rebounded again today, gold is under pressure, and the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 86%.
The market is shrouded in negative factors, and prices remain at risk of falling in the short term.

On the technical side, the daily EMAs have formed a death cross—the first condition for a trend reversal. If the daily candle closes below 75K over the next couple of days, the trend reversal will be confirmed, and BTC could test lows in the 60Ks again.

I'm still holding a BTC long position at 78K and am underwater. If the daily candle closes below 75K, I'll have to sell everything and trade with the trend.
Although prices have fallen in this move, open interest (OI) has also declined at the same time, which clearly points to deleveraging. I hope 75K holds as support today, and that tonight's jobs report cools expectations for a December rate hike and gives the market a boost.

Waiting and watching today! $BTC

The cow ran away
The cow crashed!
$BTC

Feeling better today
I've made back quite a bit
It was looking pretty awful this morning
After turning green around noon,
it bounced hard in the afternoon

Once Bitcoin gets above 78,500 and the daily EMA reclaims its level, things should stabilize
I sold half my gold at 3,900—couldn't help it; I would've been liquidated at 3,700
I've recovered a bit now, too. As long as I have funds, there's a chance to earn it back

Also, the geopolitical situation is still unstable
$BTC
$XAU

The news from Iran came too late
Crude oil fell too late
CNM
$CL

Why am I watching the key 75K level?
This is the last opportunity to go long in the short term.

$BTC
On the daily chart, the bullish trend from 58K is still intact, but price has retraced to near the critical support level. This is the area with the highest reward-to-risk ratio. A break below 75K would signal a structural reversal.
From the perspective of long-term EMA indicators, the 21- and 55-day moving averages have not yet formed a death cross, and price is still below the moving averages. This is also a very high reward-to-risk area. Once a death cross forms, I’ll sell and look for a reversal.

How will you choose to bet? I’ll start by opening a long position, then add to it once the hourly and 4-hour charts confirm the move.
I have two stop-loss signals, so I’m not afraid of losing my way.

If Bitcoin drops below 75,000, I’ll sell everything
and wait for a new round of lows.
So for the next few days, I’ll open high risk/reward long positions with 75,000 as my stop-loss.

At the same time, some altcoins that are holding up well are great buys too,
such as $LINK $UNI $NEAR

It’s the last day of October.
At times like these, I always feel like cutting off everything bad from the past (including my positions) and starting over.

My rationale for holding my gold position and going long has become too subjective and bullish, with a bit too much betting involved.
This is mainly tied to my doubts about Trump’s “TACO,” my hopes for U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the link to falling oil prices.
Gold prices are currently most sensitive to these factors.

But I overlooked one key issue: high interest rates! This is the crux of the matter. Gold is unlikely to reverse course while rates remain high.

Although there is still a chance of tensions easing between the U.S. and Iran, I can’t keep holding these futures positions. Cutting losses on a futures position doesn’t mean I’m bearish; it means exiting a bad trade. (Why cut losses? Because holding on was the wrong decision, and the daily chart broke below its previous low, continuing the downtrend in the daily timeframe. Even though the price is low, I’m following the trend and stopping out.)

I’m still bullish on gold in the long run. Central banks’ gold purchases, the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt financing costs, and the global trend toward diversifying reserve assets all support gold’s strategic value in portfolios.

The next major opportunity in gold may not come from war, but from the end of the high-interest-rate cycle and a reassessment of the dollar’s credibility around the world.
Let’s see how markets price in future interest rates at the policy meetings after December.
$XAU

It’s over.
I’ve lost everything. Gold has fallen so hard. I never want to make long-term trades again. I’ll start trading short-term from now on. I’m out of money. I’ve lost so much—I’ve lost it all. Everything is over. The people I feel most sorry for now are my family.
One last question: I went long on gold at 4100 and got liquidated at 3700. Should I cut my losses now? $XAU

Vance's letter to Iran—before even waiting for Iran's response
I reckon there'll be another chance to negotiate

So I opened a short position in crude oil around 104
$CL

There was nothing new in last night's Fed meeting.
Warsh is just keeping us guessing.

What I'm really focused on is the US-Iran situation.
And oil prices.

Lately, Trump keeps threatening to start a war after the midterm elections,
escalating tensions.
Last night, Vance wrote another letter to Iran.

I'm wondering if it's all just been talk lately,

and whether a sudden turnaround in negotiations is coming,
with oil prices reversing and falling.

Anyway, lately it's either a matter of waiting to go long or staying out of the market.

Gold probably won't fall any further, right?
If it drops more, I'm afraid I'll get liquidated.$XAU

BTC longs are temporarily out of danger
For today, watch for a continuation toward around 82K
Warsh is speaking tonight, and December rate-hike expectations will depend on his stance
$BTC

A high-risk contrarian view: bullish on BTC
BTC has fallen for several consecutive days, sweeping the daily IDM liquidity. Ideally, it won’t close below 79,200 on the daily chart. If it does, price could reach the extreme OB at 77–76K. This is the final support zone and the long entry with the best risk-to-reward ratio. The stop-loss only needs to be placed below 75K, in case price closes below it.
But if the decline reverses before reaching this zone, you may miss the move.
So I’ll start scaling into long positions now.
The current decline is pricing in future bearish news. Once that news comes to pass, the opportunity to go long may already be gone.
I still believe this rally could top out at 96–97K,
and I also think there’s room for another move up after this pullback.
This time, I don’t want to sit on the sidelines—I’ll put my view to the test.
$BTC

Over the weekend, I saw a question on Jin10:
Why isn’t gold acting as a safe haven this time? Why are investors rushing to buy U.S. Treasuries instead?
I asked GPT’s highest reasoning mode to take a deep dive.
Sharing it with everyone here:

“Investors are rushing to buy U.S. Treasuries, while gold has fallen. What is the market really afraid of?
A strange pattern has emerged in the market recently:
Oil prices are rising, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar are both retreating—and even gold has failed to attract safe-haven flows.
I believe the market is gradually shifting from worrying about inflation to worrying about economic growth.
There are three forces behind this:
① U.S. Treasuries are rising: Institutions are starting to worry about U.S. stock valuations and an economic slowdown, so money is moving into Treasuries—which offer interest and liquidity—as a safe haven.
② Gold is falling: Pressure on stocks has prompted some investors to deleverage, selling gold to raise cash; at the same time, real interest rates remain high, weighing on gold’s appeal.
③ Oil prices are rising: In the short term, this pushes inflation higher; over the long term, it could squeeze consumer spending and corporate profits. The Fed is caught between being unable to cut rates and having to contend with the risk of an economic slowdown.
That is the market’s biggest contradiction right now: inflation hasn’t been brought under control, and growth is coming under pressure.
I’m cautious on gold in the short term, but remain bullish over the medium to long term. A decline in real interest rates and a return of investment flows are needed to confirm that view.
There’s another question worth thinking about:
Institutions are buying U.S. Treasuries today to shield themselves from economic risks.
But if future risks stem from U.S. fiscal stability and confidence in the dollar itself, where will investors turn for shelter?
I believe gold’s next truly major opportunity may come not from war, but from a global reassessment of confidence in the U.S. dollar.”
$XAU

$BTC went long on Bitcoin
😡😡

On October 22, the Nasdaq fell about 2.6%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to around 4.95%. This points to investors seeking safe havens.
On October 21, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $525 million, but on October 22 they shifted to net outflows of about $382 million. ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $17.9 million on October 22.
On October 22, oil prices continued to rise amid tensions in the Middle East, while tech stocks saw a significant pullback. This suggests that safe-haven buying likely contributed to the decline in bond yields.
The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting on October 27–28, and the U.S. preliminary third-quarter GDP estimate and September PCE data will be released on October 29.

Why is gold dropping like this?
Aren't they all about to go to war?
A multinational military exercise on such a massive scale,
and I’m screwed again 😂😂😂
$XAU

When you're trying to hold for the medium to long term,
you wake up and it's been sent right back to square one.
If you can't keep a level head,
get ready to be played for a fool!
Haha

Still ranging.
Ranging takes patience.
Right now, Bitcoin has swept the liquidity below on the daily chart,
but it hasn't touched the key support below.

If the EMAs still show no reversal signal after price touches support,
then that will be the bottom.

Take some short-term trades, build up gradually, and wait patiently.

$BTC

$BTC Bitcoin has finally broken above 82K and is holding above 83K. As mentioned earlier, BTC could move either way. It’s been trading sideways lately, so it’s unclear which direction it will move first.
Based on its current movement, I’m leaning toward an upward push.
$CL Oil once again showed yesterday that there’s still room for US-Iran negotiations. If oil prices fall going forward, that could drive the market higher.
Expectations for an October rate hike have also been confirmed unchanged. There are currently no fundamental bearish catalysts expected, so hold on to long positions around 82K and see how things develop.
$XAU
Gold is still a buy on dips, and I’m likewise looking at the medium to long term. Gold is currently behaving much like it did around the previous 3980–4000 support zone. Waiting for an upward push.
If it keeps moving sideways, just keep waiting.