阿简在路上

Whoa, turns out I’ve visited so many places again this year! More than a researcher or trader, I’d rather call myself a backpacker. Which of you can name all these countries and come find A-Jian to claim a red packet? 😁

These shoes are so stylish and cool, but every time I wear knee-high socks, it makes me feel like I’m kinda gay-gay 🤧

Let’s lay out three scenarios for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls again:

Scenario one: The data comes in well above expectations—say, over 100,000—with hot wage growth too. The market won’t read that as “employment is strong”; it’ll see the Fed as having more reason to keep rates high, or even raise them again. The dollar strengthens, Treasury yields push higher, and $BTC and growth stocks come under pressure together. In this situation, the “sell the news” move can be especially brutal, because the market will be trading directly on the good news.

Scenario two: The data comes in well below expectations—say, under 30,000—with unemployment ticking up. Rate-hike bets would quickly unwind, rate-cut hopes would resurface, and risk assets could catch their breath. But A-Jian wants to remind you, folks, that there’s a hidden trap here: if the weakness is due to collapsing demand rather than a soft landing, the rebound is your chance to get out, not chase the rally. To tell the difference, watch consumer spending and initial jobless claims over the next two weeks, rather than jumping to conclusions on nonfarm payrolls night.

Scenario three: The most uncomfortable one—the data comes in right around expectations, neither strong nor weak. The market gets no new information, so it keeps grinding, with volatility shifting to other events after Friday. In terms of positioning, this means don’t load up in advance and bet on a direction based on data that’s more likely to be uneventful.

In short, the main value of nonfarm payrolls is whether it can shift December rate expectations. That will determine positioning logic for at least the next three months. So on Friday night, watch things in this order: first, changes in interest rate futures pricing; then the dollar; then Bitcoin. Reverse that order, and you’re very likely to get caught by the first fake move.

That’s all. DYOR#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？

The signals and moves from all sorts of shady characters over the past few days since the coin theft incident show at least one thing: privacy coins are the ultimate destination for money laundering. This also explains why $ZEC /$XMR have had independent price action this cycle—the demand is just too strong 🤡

Due to Paradigm's unstaking of around $224 million and expectations of a buyback, $HYPE saw a noticeable pullback. After all, $224 million is enough to change short-term supply and demand for HYPE, given its daily trading volume of $1.2 billion. However, considering that HYPE took less than a week to rise from $78 to $88, a pullback is normal. Coupled with the fact that Paradigm, as an early investor, is unlikely to sell, this is a good entry point for a short-term position.

$ZEC Including today's drop of more than ten points, the price has now retraced a third of the way from its high of $1,680. ZEC is set to undergo a hard fork the day after tomorrow, November 5. Three factors behind the decline—exchanges suspending deposits and withdrawals, leveraged funds pulling out, and market makers reducing inventory—will all ease after the fork. All things considered, a trading opportunity should be just around the corner. However, Ajian recommends avoiding short-term trades for the three days before and after the hard fork. Wait until the fork is complete and deposits and withdrawals resume before assessing the direction.

Morgan Stanley just downgraded Coinbase to Underweight, slashing its price target to $120 at $COINB . On that very same day, New Jersey dropped its lawsuit over Coinbase’s staking business and its $5 million fine, lifting a three-year ban. So event-driven discounting and regulatory easing both happened at once.

In A Jian’s view, the brokerage’s downgrade was most likely driven by declining trading volume and a loss of trust following the hacking incident. Even “the exchange that understands compliance best” got downgraded, which suggests the market is discounting the entire sector. For now, it’s probably best to follow the price action.

$NEAR What are you going to use to pay me back? 😭 On one hand, the governance vote passed, cutting the maximum annual inflation rate from 2.5% to 1.6%; on the other, the coin price plunged 10%. It achieved rare active deflation among mainstream L1s and delivered a major long-term positive, but even that couldn’t stop holders from cashing in on the good news. Sigh, it’s even fallen below 3.8 now. Be careful, everyone—either wait for it to drop to 3.2 or get back to 4.0 before considering opening a position. Ajian remains bullish on the fundamentals in the long term.

A Jian has finally figured it out: beating expectations during earnings season is now just the price of admission. In the past, a beat could buy you three days of gains; now it only earns you the right not to get dumped on immediately. Palantir beat expectations and $PLTRB fell; Apple beat expectations and $AAPLB fell too 🤡

The reason isn’t complicated. When a stock’s valuation has already priced in all the good times expected over the next two or three years, earnings reports stop proving how good it is and start looking for what might be wrong. And whether it was Google and Intel last week or Apple and Palantir today, they all did the same thing: put up a pretty set of quarterly numbers, then let their guidance do the real pricing.

So if you look at AMD tonight through that lens, A Jian thinks there could be some upside. $AMDB had already fallen nearly 11% on October 30, and it’s now roughly 30% off its all-time high, while still up 135% year to date. In other words, most of the bad news may already be priced in—which is the exact opposite of Palantir: one got crushed after reporting at a high, while the other got crushed first and reports afterward.

The key thing to watch is the data center business. If it can top 8.3 billion, the panic across the AI supply chain looks a bit overdone; if it can’t even reach 8.2 billion, that suggests making money from second-tier computing power isn’t as easy as people imagined.

That’s all. DYOR#美股财报季来袭

Here we go—today is Election Day for the U.S. midterms, and the results look fairly clear so far: prediction markets currently price Democrats’ chances of winning the House at 93% to 95%. The Senate race is less one-sided, but Democrats are still at around 68% to 76%, while the odds of a Democratic sweep of both chambers are hovering around 70%. But there’s one detail Ajian finds really interesting—and it’s where the real trading and arbitrage opportunities are tonight:

Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats only an 80% chance of winning the House. The market is more optimistic than the model by more than ten points. Savvy traders have probably realized that those ten-plus points are the difference between money and a poll. Polls ask who you plan to vote for; prediction markets ask how much money you’re willing to bet. We don’t need to worry about who’s right or wrong—we just need to know that certainty has become very expensive in the market.

So tonight, the real trading opportunity lies in that 5% to 7% chance of a surprise. If Democrats sweep, the market will probably only wobble a little, since a 70% probability is already priced in. If Republicans hold on to the House, expectations for crypto legislation will heat up instantly, and $BTC and a host of other regulation-sensitive assets will move first.

Conversely, if Democrats win even the Senate, that wouldn’t necessarily be great news for the short term. A shift from divided government to one-party control would immediately turn fiscal and regulatory uncertainty in the other direction.

Finally, Ajian has one more reality check. Many people see the election as a lifeline for the CLARITY Act, but the reality is that advancing a bill in the Senate takes 60 votes. Neither party has enough votes this session, so whoever comes out on top tonight won’t change that. The only things that could change are committee membership and the order of the agenda—and those are slow-moving factors, not tonight’s market drivers.

So Ajian’s advice to retail traders is: don’t stay up all night watching the vote count and trying to guess which way things will go. Reduce your positions to a level you can sleep with. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is the week’s real market-moving event. #美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？

Token issuance economics have simply collapsed—there’s no defending it. Out of Pump.fun’s 24 million token launches, only 312 ever reached a market cap above $100,000, a success rate of just 0.0013% 🤡. In its current form, to put it plainly, supply is unlimited while demand is limited. That 0.0013% figure itself will also destroy the “next 100x coin” narrative.

One thing to note, though: while $PUMP is trending downward, platform revenue hasn’t fallen. A total of $30 million in rewards has already been distributed. See? The people issuing tokens are still there, but the buyers have left. The ones making money have always been the shovel sellers.

All things considered, BTC only fell 3% during this security incident. Not to mention, it’s still up over the past 24 hours, and despite consecutive ETF outflows, there hasn’t been a cascade of liquidations. By conventional wisdom, this should have been a Lehman moment—like in 2014, when Mt. Gox lost 850,000 BTC and BTC plunged 80%; or in 2022, when the FTX misappropriation scandal sent BTC tumbling from $21,000 to $16,000. Why didn’t it happen? Ajian breaks it down into three reasons:

First, the custody service was compromised, not the protocol. The coins stolen were from Binance’s wallet, not from Bitcoin’s ledger. People didn’t understand this in the Mt. Gox era, but by 2026, they do. When you know the chain is still running and blocks are still being produced, panic has no anchor.

Second, market leverage is no longer that high. In October, $BTC fell 7.3% and $ETH fell 16%. After multiple rounds of liquidations, leverage in the market had already been flushed out, so when this incident happened, there was no compounding feedback loop between high leverage and bad news.

Third, there are places for money to go. In 2022, money could only pile into price, but now the total stablecoin market cap is already $305.5 billion, and on-chain yields, RWAs, and tokenized money market funds can all absorb capital. In fact, Coinbase’s BTC price is now at its biggest discount relative to Binance since 2026. Typically, it’s the exchange where something has gone wrong that trades at a discount, because everyone wants to get out. This can only mean that money didn’t flow from Binance to Coinbase, but left the spot market altogether, moving into stablecoins, on-chain assets, or directly off the exchange.

So this is actually quite reassuring: the market has learned to price exchange risk and asset risk separately. That’s a sign of the industry’s maturity, and it’s why there was no crash this time. #币安第一阶段15个网络已恢复提现

Well, 50 companies are now opposed to the ICE-OKX tokenized stock plan. Just a week ago, Jian reported the number was 22—and the original proposal covered only 62 companies in total. You see, the biggest obstacle to tokenized stocks isn’t the SEC, which we’re always criticizing; it’s the publicly listed companies themselves. The larger they are, the more concerned they’ll be that tokenized shares could bypass transfer agents, affect vote tallies, and weaken their control over the shareholder register.

They’re all pretty shrewd. The road to RWA is still a tough one. At this stage, the growth of tokenized stocks is no longer determined by “how many exchanges are doing it,” but by how many companies are willing to be tokenized.

$ETH The current funding rate has fallen to -0.0000299/8h, and short positions are extremely crowded. It looks like selling pressure has already been absorbed by the price, which has even edged back up a little. So what’s going on? Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a historic outflow of around $1.6 billion throughout October, and it’s almost becoming a sustained outflow trend. So compared with shorts being squeezed out or spot buying failing to hold up, Jian currently thinks the latter is more likely. ETH will probably continue to drift lower.

Spot gold $XAU climbed back above $3,900 per ounce today, but that doesn’t change the fact that gold just had a very weak October, falling about 6.8% for the month. Some people may ask again why gold hasn’t attracted safe-haven inflows while risk assets like tech stocks are falling. Jian reiterates that in the current high-interest-rate environment, every macro signal other than interest rates is just noise for gold. This is a view I’ve been expressing since gold was around $4,800: gold is strong, but don’t be stubborn. In the short-term market, no asset can keep rising forever.

A little snack, ten points. Are you guys on board yet? 🤯$KORUB

Uniswap launched the TJAR on-chain fee conversion framework today. It has gone live on 7 blockchains, allowing apps to automatically convert fees collected in multiple tokens into a designated token, without each app having to build its own cross-token conversion logic. In Ajian's view, this tool, which aims to solve the problem of consolidating fees apps receive in multiple tokens, is still very positive for the fundamentals. In any case, I've already built a position near the bottom and remain bullish on $UNI for the long term. I'll consider adding another tranche at 7.6–7.8 (the trading panel is showing incorrectly; the actual leverage is 7x. If you're holding long term, definitely don't use high leverage!)

There’s a reason for Monday’s market open. Data released today showed that South Korea’s exports in October rose 93.7% year over year to a record $115.28 billion. Most astonishingly, semiconductor exports surged 259.4% year over year to $56.44 billion, while computer product exports also climbed 496%. A Jian believes these figures point to at least two conclusions:

First, AI investment isn’t reflected only in the earnings reports of U.S. tech companies. It has already made its way into chips, servers, memory, and Asia’s export supply chain.
Second, although AI capital spending has investors worried about returns, at least based on current supply chain orders, demand remains very strong.

So, driven by demand for AI servers, while we shouldn’t conflate “the AI industry is still growing” with “all AI stocks are worth buying,” at least $KORUB remains solid. 10.6 is a good entry point, and there’s a strong chance we’ll see the same market movement tomorrow as we did this Monday.

Binance has replenished about 90% of the stolen assets using its own funds. Some of you may be wondering why it’s not 100%—is it just short of a little money? Of course not. With support from the SAFU user protection fund, the futures insurance fund, and the company’s own funds, there’s plenty of financial backing. The remaining 10% is mainly due to lower liquidity, so replenishing it may take longer.

When people look at exchanges’ risk-prevention mechanisms, they often focus only on how to address risks around user asset custody, hot wallets, signing systems, and internal permissions, while overlooking liquidity and solvency risks after an extreme event. In reality, even if a platform has sufficient assets on its books and is well positioned to compensate users, that doesn’t mean it can buy back all the stolen assets quickly and at a reasonable price. This is especially true for small-cap, low-liquidity tokens, where concentrated buybacks can themselves move the market.

In the wake of this incident, Jian thinks exchanges’ proof of reserves, the size of their insurance funds, and the liquidity structure of their assets may all need to be reexamined.#币安已回填九成受影响资产

The FBI has attributed the theft on October 29 to the North Korea-linked hacker group TraderTraitor, saying the funds are being transferred to $ETH and may later be laundered through DeFi and instant exchange services. Although the FBI has asked exchanges, blockchain analytics firms, and other entities to help block the relevant addresses, it’s unclear whether they’d dare ask the general to open the door 🤡#FBI确认朝鲜应对币安被盗事件负责