阿简在路上

Old Gods Take Their Bow #巴菲特转任伯克希尔荣誉董事长

Brent crude oil ($BZ ) has fallen for the third consecutive day. The main reason is that the market has started to believe that Saudi Arabia can restore part of its oil supply through other channels, but it still remains above $100. The energy crisis has not ended yet, and the sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of global central banks is still there. Ajian will continue to monitor whether it truly breaks below $100 next—not because the number 100 has any magical economic meaning, but because it will genuinely shape businesses’ and consumers’ expectations

Recently, Ai Jian has been focusing on how $BTC responds to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. I want to verify whether, if 10Y falls back to around 4.8%, BTC would clearly receive liquidity support. If it rises again to 5%, would BTC face immediate pressure? If the answers to both are yes, then in the future 10Y could become a very useful auxiliary variable for BTC macro trading. Otherwise, it would suggest that crypto’s own capital logic is strengthening

FXRP’s collateral borrowing of RLUSD has already been launched on Ethereum via Morpho. You should know that the most common narratives in the past $XRP were payments, cross-border settlement, and institutional transfers, but this time it’s directly using XRP assets as collateral, $RLUSD as the borrowed stablecoin, Morpho managing the lending market, and Flare connecting XRP assets and the EVM. This is a major addition to the XRP narrative

Across Protocol plans to gradually shut down $ACX , with the goal of completing the exit after January 8, 2027. Nothing particularly unusual here, but their buyback is pretty interesting: holders can redeem for AcrossCo equity or USDC at an agreed $0.04375/ACX. The minimum participation threshold is about 250K ACX, and it requires KYC.

Compared with a traditional buyback, this is more like setting up a conversion channel between token holders and company equity. I think this attempt by Across is meaningful for many protocols that have a disconnect between company operations and token value capture.

If you hold enough ACX, A-Jian recommends you check the official portal now—review the KYC requirements, the deadline, and the share class—to aim for a decent exit.

Zcash’s NU7 mainnet upgrade plan to go live on November 5, with the testnet scheduled to launch on October 6; after the upgrade, the block time will be shortened to 25 seconds and new sustainability mechanisms will be added. Before, A-Jian has broken down multiple times the forces behind the rise of $ZEC : the Grayscale ETF, the privacy narrative, and this NU7 technical upgrade. Zcash is positioning itself as a candidate for turning from a privacy coin into privacy financial infrastructure. The technical upgrade speeds up transaction confirmations, the ETF provides a traditional account entry point, and when the two combine, the narrative naturally grows stronger—plus the squeeze on shorts—no wonder it can keep climbing

Uniswap v4 has just launched the StablePair Hook, targeting stablecoin trading pairs like USDC/USDT. It attempts to reduce LP arbitrage losses through dynamic fees and a Dutch auction. A-Jian believes this is an attempt to solve a very real problem: stablecoin trading volume is large, but LPs may not necessarily earn well, because stablecoin prices fluctuate very little, while arbitrage bots can continuously capture even tiny differences in the pool. Uniswap’s goal is to keep a larger share of value for LPs and the protocol.

Competition in DeFi is getting increasingly detail-focused. It’s no longer about who has the highest TVL; it’s about who can reduce LP impermanent loss, arbitrage losses, and gas friction. This move by Uniswap could directly improve the efficiency of the entire trading market. Compared with a standard buyback, it’s a major positive for $UNI

Benefit from the approximately $1.58M net income generated by NEAR Intents over the past 30 days, $NEAR has seen an increase of more than 45% in the past three days. Even taking into account the fact that leverage has already been entered, this round of rally can’t really be considered a simple rebound. A-jian believes that privacy trading and confidential perps are moving out of the product narrative phase and are being repriced by the market. However, judging from the current rate of price increase, the speed of valuation expansion is indeed far faster than business growth. So it’s not recommended for you, friends, to chase the highs, but stocking up on spot is totally fine

The Bank of Japan today raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% with a 7-2 vote, reaching the highest level in 31 years—exactly as Aijian had expected. Meanwhile, the yen also did not rise after the rate hike in the usual way; instead, it once fell to around 156.7. The reason is something I broke down previously as well. This time, the rate hike itself was already fully priced in by the market, and the BOJ did not provide a sufficiently hawkish forward path.

I think the only aspect worth watching from this BOJ meeting is that the rate hike was ultimately approved 7-2. Two委员 voted against the hike, which suggests that the BOJ’s internal view on how quickly to continue tightening is not unanimously aligned.

Finally, a reminder again: in FX trading, it’s never about whether there is a rate hike or not—it’s about the difference between the actual outcome and what the market expected. The expectation gap is what FX truly trades #日本央行加息至31年高位

Another major macro event that many friends seem to have missed: a U.S. House committee advanced H.R. 8957 with a vote of 28:21. The bill would put the Strategic $BTC reserve into law, including at least a 20-year holding period and annual reporting requirements. This creates a strong contrast with the stalled CLARITY Act: on one side, the comprehensive market-structure bill could not move forward, and on the other, issues related to strategic reserves and taxes continue to progress. This is exactly what Ajian has always emphasized: U.S. crypto policy doesn’t move forward or backward as a whole—it follows different paths depending on the specific bill.

So the market will price this separately. Policies favorable to BTC don’t necessarily benefit every token at the same time; this bill is still more directly aimed at BTC. That also explains why when the comprehensive regulatory bill stalls, BTC may still show more policy resilience than altcoins.

Honestly speaking, if we look at this Fed rate hike, the central bank that should find it most troublesome is the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Now, the market generally expects that tomorrow the BOJ will raise its policy rate to 1.25%, reaching a 31-year high. The problem lies right here: after the Fed hikes, the yen weakens again. The USD/JPY pair once returned to around 155.5. As the market treated the BOJ’s rate hike just like it did the Fed’s—by pricing it in fully—if tomorrow the BOJ fails to provide a clear and continuous tightening path, A Jian believes the yen exchange rate may face immediate weakening pressure, falling below the 158 level and then probing again toward 160.

And there’s another issue: what if, ultimately, the BOJ turns hawkish as well, just like the Fed? How would global interest rate spreads change then? So the yen is no longer just Japan’s own problem now. It will go hand in hand with the dollar in a continuous global repricing of funding costs #日本加息

Avalanche plans to execute the Helicon upgrade on September 22, shortening the validator cycle from the shortest 14 days to 48 hours. It will support automatic renewal, raise the minimum uptime to 90%, and reduce short-term validator rewards. This looks like a routine adjustment to validator capital efficiency—by reducing the opportunity cost of participating in validation while also preventing a large number of short-term mercenary validators.

As for whether this move can be beneficial to $AVAX , A-Jian thinks that when looking at a PoS chain, you should not only consider the staked APR. You should also look at the lockup period, exit time, slash risk, node costs, and the reward structure—so that participation cost and attack cost remain balanced.

After Arc’s mainnet went live yesterday, within two hours it attracted 372M USDC and about 176K addresses. Even early cross-chain USDC saw premiums as high as 80%-100%. So what’s next? With more than 50 launchpads fighting for attention, liquidity rapidly becomes fragmented. “Dragon #1” $ARGUS is like a clump of poop, and the Fed’s rate hikes plus the wise “third brother” and “little black” at the developers’ conference only fan the flames.

Ajian believes that chains like Arc—stablecoin-native chains—definitely have demand, but infrastructure hype doesn’t automatically mean every meme is valuable. When everyone rushes in like this, the more on-chain capital there is and the more launchpads there are, the less liquidity a single token may end up getting.

Be sure to distinguish: mainnet launch is an infrastructure event, while a meme surge is an attention event

$PUMP After a rise of more than 100% prior to this, it then retraced about 30% from the high point. Meanwhile, around $25M worth of tokens are set to unlock. In the past 24 hours, it has risen again by about 10%. Ajian thinks this is simply the most classic attention-asset cycle textbook: it goes up first, then unlocks, then retraces, and finally the capital tries to rush in for a rebound.

PUMP has real platform revenue, but the token will still be affected by unlocks, team supply, and meme cycles. If you only look at protocol earnings, it’s easy to overestimate the token; if you only look at unlocks, you might underestimate the platform business. It’s recommended to treat $0.00317 as one of the key structure levels the market is focused on, and also continue to watch whether the unlock addresses transfer to exchanges.

U1S1, $BTC these past two days—after experiencing the Fed rate hike, CLARITY setbacks, a stronger dollar, and ETF outflows—BTC has still managed to churn around the $76K area, which is already pretty impressive. The market’s reaction has been more restrained than many people, including Ajian, expected. If Crypto were to run fully according to the traditional risk-asset logic, it should, in theory, have had to withstand much greater macro pressure. This shows that BTC hasn’t completely lost its “store-of-value” capital-attracting properties. The ongoing bids for the big pie are continuously supported by ETF demand, corporate treasuries, miners and long-term holders, spot exchange users, short-covering, and arbitrage capital.

Of course, BTC not collapsing doesn’t mean the rate hike has no impact. Long-term interest rates, the dollar, and the subsequent rate-hike path will still determine how much valuation upside risk assets can retain. As for today’s altcoin rebound like $NEAR and $ZEC , it only indicates that risk appetite hasn’t fully disappeared—it may just be liquidity reallocation after ETF outflows, short-covering, or a technical rebound after yesterday’s drop that was too sharp. Until BTC reclaims $80K, any conclusion is still premature.

#点阵图预示2026年再加息一次 This is the most worth-watching chart: in the Fed’s economic projections released last night, the median federal funds rate at the end of 2026 reaches 4.1%. Now the target range is already 3.75%–4%, which means the dot plot still leaves room for further rate hikes.

This is exactly what A-jian analyzed earlier: whether there would be signals that the market is waiting for—a possible additional round of rate hikes.

So after the Fed, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.71% at one point, but the 10-year yield stayed around 5% without continuing to break upward meaningfully. This is very typical of bear flattening: tighter policy in the front end, with the long end relatively stable.

This suggests the market believes short-term monetary policy needs to be tighter, but expectations for the long-term economy and inflation have not deteriorated in tandem.

#美联储加息 no unexpected rate hike, and the market has responded to it as well; it was already priced in long ago, and even $BTC isn’t making much of a stir 😮‍💨

The NU7 voting for $ZEC has been over for a while now. The ETF and the privacy narrative are still in play, and the high-level positioning has begun to rotate repeatedly. Overall, it’s in a state where three narratives—governance + ETF + high leverage—are stacked together. This creates strong price volatility; meanwhile, if any one of the three lines turns weaker, it could trigger rapid price swings. A-Jian’s observation:

Hold $1,100 to show that the pullback is still controllable
Break above $1,158, and there will be a chance to retest $1,200
If it falls below $1,100, first look to see whether funds have withdrawn from the privacy sector

Only see thieves eat meat and never see thieves get beaten, lads—check out this Hyperliquid address for the third-largest single-asset position. It holds about 45,000$ETH with 8x leveraged long exposure; the position value is about $107M. Since it opened on August 31, it went from unrealized profit of over $5M to now an unrealized loss of over about $4M, and it has paid more than $540k in funding fees 🤡

This can be said to be a very intuitive lesson on leverage: the direction was once correct, and the price once gave profits, but the position was too big and the leverage too high—eventually it could still be knocked back by a drawdown. A large position doesn’t equal a smart position, and unrealized profit doesn’t equal real profit.