三思交易

If you are an older user of Binance, and you have no inviter—after 90 days with almost no trading—you can use the following methods to bind referral commissions.

Method ① (Conditions: no trading in the past 90 days)

https://www.bsmkweb.cc/zh-CN/join?ref=bn2017

Method ② (Conditions: trading volume in the past 90 days is less than 5000 USDT; after applying with the link, you can succeed if your monthly trading exceeds 150,000 USDT)

https://www.bsmkweb.cc/zh-CN/activity/referral/bind-ref

Invitation code: bn2017

(Referral commission: 20%)

Advantages of binding referral commissions:
① Permanent automatic rebate of trading fees

Knowledge is priceless, networks are priceless—saving money is earning money.$BTC

$ETH
$HYPE

☆ Kent Channel Line Trading Strategy

Indicator: Keltner Channel (KC)

Parameters:
KC1: Length 50, multiplier 2.75
KC2: Length 50, multiplier 3.75, turn off the midline

The core is just one sentence: The larger time frame determines the direction; the smaller time frame finds the entry position.

Time-frame relationship:
15m looks at 1H → 1H looks at 4H → 4H looks at the daily chart → the daily chart looks at the weekly chart

When the larger time frame is trending up, only look for longs.
When the larger time frame is trending down, only look for shorts.
The smaller time frame runs opposite to the larger time frame—treat it as a retracement first.

1. Buy on Pullbacks

Prerequisite: The larger time frame cannot be a clearly bearish trend.

Price breaks below the KC2 lower band → then pulls back and breaks above the KC1 lower band → enter long.

Stop loss: Near the KC2 lower band.
After departing from the lower band: Move stop loss to break-even.
To the midline: Take profit 50%.
Break above the midline: Move stop loss to the midline.
To the KC1 upper band: Manage the remaining position based on momentum.

2. Trend Longs

In a strong uptrend, it is likely that price won’t give you an opportunity to reach the KC2 lower band—then focus on the midline.

Price breaks above the midline from below → enter long.

Stop loss: About 0.3%–0.5% below the midline.
After leaving the midline → protect profit (move stop to break-even).
To the KC1 upper band → take profit 50%, and simultaneously move the stop loss up.
If it falls back below the key level again → exit the remaining position.

3. Shorting

The logic is completely the opposite.

Price rallies to the KC2 upper band → then pulls back and breaks below the KC1 upper band → enter short.

Stop loss: Near the KC2 upper band.

If it doesn’t break below the KC1 upper band, don’t try to top-tick early.

In a strong trend, the easiest way to lose money is to see “it’s gone up too much” and open a short immediately.

Finally, remember these 4 rules:

The larger time frame sets the direction; the smaller time frame finds the entry.
KC1 is for the first target; KC2 is for extreme areas.
Whenever you open a position, you must have a stop loss; after you’re in profit, gradually move the stop loss up.
Light position sizing, staged entries—better to miss than to hold a losing position.

KC helps me judge trend, position, and momentum—not a 100% win-rate indicator.

In the market, living longer matters more than making more profit on any single trade.
$BTC
$ETH
$HYPE
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC

Why open a fee rebate commission?
1. When your position is profitable, the rebate is another part of your earnings.
2. When your position is flat, the rebate is your profit.
3. When your position is losing or gets liquidated, the rebate can help you recover and start over.
Many brothers think that with a few hundred USDT or a few thousand USDT, it’s not necessary to enable this—because you don’t understand the fee calculation standard. Fees are never calculated based on your principal; they are calculated based on your leveraged position. For example, if you have 1000 USDT and open with 100x leverage, then when calculating the fee, the position used is 10 WU (10,000?). Also, since opening a trade will inevitably be closed, this single trade would incur at least 20 WU in fees.

20% rebate invitation code: bn2017

Summary: Don’t underestimate fee rebates. Each month, it can save you a few meals of Haidilao at the low end, or tens of thousands at the high end. When times get tough, this money becomes the capital for us to rise again.
Registration link 🔗: https://www.binance.com/join?ref=bn2017
$BTC
$SOL
$HYPE
#Circle与Tether冻结Bitget黑客钱包

Woke up and something happened with Bitget.

At 2:31 a.m., the platform detected abnormal transfers from some hot wallets, initially involving $351.6 million.

At present, the official confirmation is as follows:

Cold wallets are fine, user account balances are normal, and deposits and trading are proceeding as usual, but withdrawals are temporarily closed.$BTC

Just updated after “first set 10 big targets,” and I’ll jot down his latest moves.

Earlier, the big pie started from 58,000. He kept watching for 100,000. Unfortunately, a few times he tried to guess the top in the middle, and he ended up missing a large chunk of the move.

Now the combined cost for the long position is around 78,000.

Next, he’ll watch a few key levels:

If 79,000 doesn’t break, keep holding.
If it breaks below 79,000, start trimming.
If there’s a fast push to 98,000—105,000, add some defensive short positions.
If the daily chart holds above 108,000, cancel the shorts.
If 80,000—100,000 ranges thoroughly, move the defense level up to 115,000—125,000.

This time the thinking is much clearer than before.

No more messing around or trying to guess the top—do what needs to be done wherever the market goes.
$BTC
$ETH
$HYPE
#币安将上市Hyperliquid（HYPE）

#比特币两度受阻87300美元
Which three siblings are these?
Warmly welcome to join Binance.

Trading fee automatically rebated 20%. Invitation code: ethan888
$BTC
$ETH

Brothers who were watching the market last night should have felt it.

As soon as the U.S. stocks opened, Bitcoin suddenly wasn’t acting right.

At the time, I was watching whether it could hold around 87,000, but a wave of selling hit and it got smashed downward—82,000 got broken too.

Then I checked U.S. Treasuries and it all made sense.

The U.S. PMI data was too strong, and the market’s expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep high rates—or even raise rates again—suddenly surged.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury shot straight through 5%.

U.S. stocks got hit as well:

NASDAQ -1.1%
S&P -0.75%
Dow -0.68%

Right now, the market is pretty uncomfortable.

If the economic data is weak, people worry about a recession.

If the data is too strong, people worry the Fed will keep tightening.

So today I won’t just keep my eyes on Bitcoin.

Whether the 10-year Treasury yield can move back below 5%—I’ll be watching that closely.

This thing is more useful than many candlestick indicators right now.$BTC
$ETH
$TRUMP
#比特币两度受阻87300美元

Binance is making major changes to its account structure this time—if you’re doing C2C/P2P, take note.

Starting September 29, the crypto assets in your Funding Account will be gradually moved to the Spot Account.

Key points:

1. From September 29 onward, the Funding Account will no longer support on-chain deposits.

2. The Funding Account will be renamed to “Stock Account” in January 2027. Going forward, it will mainly be used for stock and stock options settlement.

3. A new “One-Click Transfer” feature will be added to accounts. If you want to transfer in advance, you can do it yourself.

4. Don’t panic if you don’t migrate proactively. Starting January 2027, the system will automatically migrate your assets in batches to the Spot Account, and your total asset balance won’t be affected.

5. In the future, deposits and withdrawals for most cryptocurrencies will basically be routed through the Spot Account.

From what I’ve reviewed, Binance is essentially re-sorting the account responsibilities this time:

Crypto assets go to the Spot Account,
Stocks go to the Stock Account.

For brothers who use Binance a lot, remember to update the app after September 29—so you don’t end up searching for the asset entry for ages.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE #比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高

#trump Tomorrow the China-U.S. leaders meet. Will it be a boost for Trump?

“Talk about ‘Setting 10 Big Goals’—he’s back again.”

Today the big boy broke through 85,000. He said that he had already warned before:

A strategy of continuous buying is itself a signal worth watching.

Coincidentally, on Strategy last week it also bought 950 units of the big boy, spending about $75.7 million, with an average cost of $79,670. At the moment, its holdings have returned to 846,000 units.

This guy previously said to hold at 80,000 to reach 100,000—and now he’s getting ready to move the trend position up to 120,000.

Lately, he really has called quite a few things right.$BTC
#比特币突破8.5万美元

Strategy Last week increased holdings by 950 BTC and repurchased $174 million of STRC. The average purchase price per BTC was $79,670. Total Bitcoin holdings increased to 846,000 BTC.$BTC
#比特币突破8.5万美元

The giant whale “has updated his thinking again after setting 10 big targets.”

This round’s trend-only setup is aiming to reach 120,000.

When the coin (big bet) gets to 100,000, he takes 30% of the position to do swing trades, and keeps the rest holding.

This guy started saying back in late August:

“Once you stabilize at 80,000, the target is 100,000. Even if you only get in again after 80,000 is achieved, it’s not too late.”

Now as the big bet climbs step by step, he hasn’t rushed to exit. Instead, he’s raised the target to 120,000.

I really like how he handled it this time.

First take some profit at 100,000, and let the trend run with the remaining portion.

It’s not hard to be right about the direction.

The real difficulty is being able to hold on. $BTC

Big Brother Ma Ji just cashed back up again.

As the Big Cake and the Little Cake rise, all three of his long positions are currently in profit. His total unrealized profit is $5.66 million, with a return rate of 110%.

Little Cake: 25x long, position size $88.39 million, unrealized profit $4.5 million
Big Cake: 40x long, position size $27 million, unrealized profit $0.88 million
HYPE: 10x long, position size $9.01 million, unrealized profit $0.27 million

That adds up to $125 million in long positions.

The most brutal one is the Little Cake—one trade is holding up more than $88 million.

This guy Ma Ji really doesn’t change his style.

While others use high leverage for trading, he uses high leverage like clocking in for work.

This round has, for now, let him take the win back.$HYPE

Sudden surge in the afternoon—could it be because the leaders of China and the U.S. met…?

Ordinary people really don’t need to study short-term trading every day.

You think your opponent is Old Wang next door—but in fact, on the other side of the table are the exchange, huge whales, market makers, and a whole bunch of professional quantitative teams.

You race machines for speed, you race big funds for information, and in the end you still have to pay fees first.

The higher the frequency, the more often you make mistakes—and the more fees you pay.

And then there are those KOLs who draw resistance levels and support levels every day, telling you what’s full here and what’s empty there in the candles.

If they were really that amazing, they’d already be quietly making money.

With smaller capital, the most common mistake ordinary people make is trying to rapidly grow their principal by using high leverage.

With 10,000 as the principal, they can’t help but try to produce 1,000,000 in returns.

In the end, the principal doesn’t grow—first it’s the leverage that wipes out the account.

The more I think about it, the more I feel that the real advantage ordinary people have is:

Fewer trades, lower leverage, DCA, and holding long term.

If your capital is small, find ways to earn more principal in real life.

Don’t expect 100x leverage to solve poverty.

What it amplifies is never just returns.

It also amplifies your greed and your mistakes.

$BTC

Kalshi has been exposed pretty seriously this time.

Yesterday, it publicly announced trading volume of $1.91 billion. Some traders rechecked and believe the actual trading volume could be as low as $136 million.

Where is the gap?

It mainly comes down to how “parlay” bets are counted.

If you spend $1 to buy a parlay ticket that pays $14.1 for hitting all selections, Kalshi may simply count the volume as $14.1.

Even more extreme: in these combination tickets, nearly half of the positions are tied to 11 or more events.

In addition, other traders estimated that if calculated on a monthly basis, the real trading volume might be around $4.0 billion, vs. $57.0 billion on the books—a huge discrepancy.

No wonder the community has been in an uproar these past few days.

If these estimates and counting methods are ultimately confirmed to be correct, then this “trading volume” from Kalshi will really need to be discounted and reconsidered going forward.$BTC $ETH

Next week we’re doing a “copycat” rollout—first, let’s jot down this unlock schedule.

This time the most eye-catching one is XPL.

September 25, 20:00:
XPL unlocks about 1.76 billion tokens, worth about $158 million, accounting for roughly 63.2% of the current circulating supply.

That ratio is indeed a bit scary—I’ll keep a close watch.

I’ll also note the others:

September 22: ID, MBG
September 23: SOON
September 24: SOSO
September 25: H, BIGTIME, XPL
September 26: STBL

Among these, BIGTIME’s unlocked amount is about 13.34% of circulating supply, H about 7.34%, and SOSO about 5.97%.

I have a habit when doing “copycats”:

When it’s a big unlock week like this, first check the unlock ratio, then check the receiving addresses and whether there’s any subsequent transfer to an exchange.

Unlock ≠ guaranteed sell-off.

But if a large batch of tokens suddenly appears, at the very least I need to know who received them and whether they might sell.

Especially for something like XPL, which unlocks more than 60% of circulating supply at once—I’d rather take another look or two than rush in blindly.
$BTC
$XPL
$HYPE
#以太坊突破2700美元

Strategy This time, it has literally clawed its way back up from underwater.

With BTC rebounding, Strategy’s floating profit on its Bitcoin holdings has already expanded to $5.02 billion.

Just consider this: during the toughest period not long ago, the paper loss at one point was nearly $10 billion.

At the moment, Strategy still has about 845,000 BTC, along with $6.4 billion in reserve assets.

This is the most real side of going heavy on Bitcoin:

When it drops, the whole market is calculating when it might finally break;
when it climbs back, those tens or even hundreds of billions in paper fluctuation can be clawed back by a single rebound.

Michael Saylor’s ace of a move is still on the table.

Going forward, what I’m more interested in isn’t how much floating profit there is, but whether, if Bitcoin continues to move higher, Strategy will keep adding to its position.

This guy really can hold.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC post, get rewarded. In the coin market, there are still quite a lot of ways and opportunities to make money—it's just a matter of how you take advantage of them.

If you have no capital and are afraid of risks, this path may be worth trying. $BTC $ETH

#trump What are you doing?