渔夫_执棋者

Watch the market quietly and seize the opportunity early. Govern the market with strategy, and seek profit with stability. Welcome everyone to join the chat room to learn—chat room ID: y66888

And here it comes?

Now the 85,000 level is something the market can no longer break through. It has repeatedly rebounded to this point, but it keeps running into resistance and pulling back. The bullish momentum is clearly weakening. The profit-taking positions accumulated from the earlier rally have been waiting to exit; every time there’s only a modest rebound, sell pressure follows, and the price keeps getting weighed down and suppressed.

This also confirms our earlier judgment: this round of上涨 (rising) has been more of a bull trap/false breakout rather than a true bullish reversal. Overhead resistance is heavy, and buyers are not eager to chase higher prices.

In the short term, expect a weak, sideways consolidation. If it continues to fail to hold above 85,000, the market will most likely keep probing lower to test the support below.

Sell on a rebound in the 84,800–85,300 range, with targets to the downside at 82,000–80,000.

Ether follows accordingly $BTC

As early as the 86.2k level, I already warned that this rally is a bull trap. I reminded everyone not to be misled by the illusion of the market surface.

There is not much controversy about the big picture; in the short term, the market has basically already peaked. Many voices in the market keep repeatedly emphasizing that a bull market is still possible in the future. A bull market might still arrive later, but the appearance of a round of correction right now is already a high-probability event.

Once the market begins to pull back at the daily level, the risk will increase significantly. At this stage, you should properly focus on risk management and hedging. If you are genuinely convinced about a major bull market, you can simply ignore my views and continue to hold. But from a risk-control perspective, at high levels you should reduce exposure decisively rather than hoping for luck.

Don’t be misled by short-term rallies. Prepare your risk plan in advance, avoid drawdowns caused by a daily-level pullback, and protect the profits you already have.

Yesterday I also posted an article saying it’s just inducing longs—don’t chase longs. Isn’t it already coming down?

Today’s key market focus points are the upper key resistance levels at 4346, 4368, and 4405.

If the market rebounds, it will first face resistance at 4346—this is the first short-term checkpoint; if prices strongly break through, the next resistance target is at 4368.

To regain strength, it’s necessary to hold above 4368 and then further challenge 4405, this important strong resistance.

Based on the current setup, during the rebound process these points will suppress the price in stages. You can adjust in batches at these levels.$XAU

This rally began from around 80095, climbing steadily to a peak at 87385. After pushing to the high, the bulls lost momentum and the market shifted into high-level consolidation followed by a pullback.

The earlier surge had accumulated a large number of profit-takers. After 87385 met resistance, the market repeatedly wrestled in a range: several attempts were made to push to new highs, but they all failed. As capital chose to exit, the行情 gradually weakened.

Yesterday, there was a sudden, rapid sell-off, with the low dipping to around 83500. Afterwards, buyers stepped in, leading to a modest rebound and repair. The current price is consolidating around 84263.

In the short term, the overall trend has shifted from the earlier upmove to a relatively weak pattern of pullback at high levels. Overhead resistance is in the 85000–85800 range. If the rebound cannot break through this resistance zone, it is likely that the market will continue testing lower support. Key support sits at 84000; if this level falls through again, it will further open up downside room$BTC

The intraday market overall oscillates back and forth within a high-range area. In the morning, the price surged to around 87,200, then pulled back to 85,700.

On the daily chart, there is a long-upper-shadow cross-like bearish candle. MACD remains upward, but KDJ has turned downward. Overhead resistance is at 87,500–88,000, while support is at 84,500–83,000.
On the four-hour chart, it has consecutively closed two bearish candles, with bearish momentum strengthening; both MACD and KDJ trend down in sync. On the hourly chart as well, bearish energy is being released and indicators are weakening.

For observation of the market on Wednesday evening:
Short-term resistance: 86,300–86,800; support: 85,100–84,600. For another contract, resistance is 2,750–2,775, and support is 2,700–2,675.
Overall key resistance: 87,500–88,000 and 2,785–2,810; key support: 84,700–84,200 and 2,675–2,650.
No matter how you look at the market, risk is always the top priority—make sure to always manage risk properly before trading.

Everyone can compare the trading volume during the true bull market start phase, then look at the volume over the last two months—it's clear at a glance that they’re different. In the early stage of a bull market, price rises must be supported by sustained volume; capital keeps flowing in, and the uptrend is solid.

In my view, this rally is very likely a bull trap designed to lure investors in. The market creates the illusion that a big surge is about to begin, attracting retail traders to chase the price higher. Meanwhile, the capital uses the opportunity to gradually distribute positions. This kind of breakout without volume is hard to sustain. Don’t be misled by short-term gains. Don’t blindly chase long positions. When trading, always pay attention to changes in volume and manage risk properly.

The last live order has been made by my descendant to hit the 83,000 level. Remember one thing: if it’s a descendant, then it’s a descendant. It’s not scary to be wrong—what’s scary is refusing to admit and correct your mistakes. Being able to see me admit my mistake honestly is far better than those who get it wrong and just delete the post.

In the past two days, many people who are seeing my Weibo for the first time might think that this order is just the descendant. This teacher’s ability isn’t good, but remember—you are only seeing this descendant for the first time; you haven’t seen the gains brought by the thinking behind the earlier part.

Of course, this time the descendant issue isn’t a big problem—it's only like missing out on a single bite of profit. Going forward, I still won’t chase for more at this position. For now, I’ll wait for the market to continue consolidating, and wait for the daily chart to show top divergence—then that’s when you set up for a short position.

From the 1-hour chart, you can see that a few days ago the gold price was pulled up to around 4399, but it met resistance and couldn’t break higher. After that, it kept moving back and forth within a narrow range. Now the price is hovering around 4376, getting pulled up and down—so neither side has gained a clear advantage for the moment.

Today’s market action is a choppy grind. The resistance overhead is around 4399. As long as the price can’t hold above this level, any rebound is likely to be a bull trap. For support, look at 4358. If price breaks below that level, the行情 will weaken and start moving downward.

At this stage, don’t rush to chase trades. Wait for the price to break out of the range before taking action. Consider going long when it breaks upward through the resistance. If a rebound hits the resistance zone and can’t push higher, you can look for a pullback. Make sure you set a stop-loss. In a ranging market, there are many false breakouts, and the risk is not small.$XAU

Brothers, empty empty empty. When we came to the palace, this wave is expected to reach 10,000 points. Defend above 83,000. The first target is 70,000.

No matter whether you placed an order at the current price on the 18th and added at 82k, or whether you got in on the 19th—right now you still have about 1k of room to profit and have earned $BTC

Brothers, I’m back again. This round of positioning is for a long-term short. All three below apply:

Short the current price at the head position, add at 82,000, and place shorts above 83,000.

Targets: watch for 76,000 to break, then look further down to 72,000.

For Ethereum: look at 2200.

For BNB: 600$BNB $BTC

Successfully doubled within a week, and the pace was also well managed$$BTC

Bad news piling up, the big dip can’t fall—are we seeing the bottom or just grinding it out? #比特币突破77000美元

Right now, a bunch of negative factors are weighing on BTC: the Federal Reserve has completed its rate hikes, the dot plot signals further hikes within the year, and the overall tone of the speech was hawkish—so the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are rising in tandem. Progress on regulatory bills is being blocked, ETF flows have continued to drain, and even institutions have shown signs of selling coins.

In the past, with so much negative news stacking up, even if there wasn’t a major crash, the price would likely head straight toward the 70,000s. But this time, the market only probed down to the low of around 75,000, and soon after, fresh funds stepped in to buy the dip and pull it back.

This suggests that there is strong buy support around 75,000. Also, the drop from 82,000 to 75,000—nearly a 9% correction—has already priced in a portion of the bad news in advance. Still, don’t mistake this for a full-fledged bull market returning.

What matters in trading isn’t how bad the news is, but how the price reacts after the news lands. If bad news can’t push the market lower, it indicates that bearish power is temporarily exhausted. Conversely, if the market rises on bad news but can’t keep climbing, that also means bulls don’t have enough conviction.

As things stand, the big coin’s situation looks like this: there’s buy support underneath, but there’s no incremental capital chasing prices higher above.

In the short term, if it holds the 75.0–76.0k range, there’s a chance for consolidation and recovery, potentially putting it back on track to challenge 80.0–82.0k. Only if it puts in volume and holds above 82.0k can we say the bad news has been largely digested. A break above 84.0–85.0k is what would earn the discussion of a true trend reversal.

If 75.0k breaks, the first support to watch is around 72.4k. Holding that level would still look like consolidation and shakeout. If it effectively breaks down, then this “stubbornness” is merely a delay in selling pressure—watch out for 69.6k next.

Quick summary: if it holds above 82k, the bad news is basically out of the way. If it breaks below 72.4k, the decline will only arrive late, not fail to come. During the consolidation phase in between, either stay on the sidelines and wait for direction to become clear, or if you trade, only play short-term swings—and set take-profit and stop-loss strictly.

Do you remember before the Federal Reserve meeting on the 14th even began, I had already anticipated the market move in advance. On Tuesday, it was likely to trade in a range and drift downward to probe around 4300, then on Wednesday to rebound and test 4400.

The actual price action was broadly in line with my forecast. The low even dropped straight to 4253, going further down than the 4300 I expected. After that, the rebound kicked off as planned, and the high reached 4381. That left only 19 points to the 4400 target—just a little short of being completely on target.

You can see that around the time the news was released, market volatility was significant. Although the levels weren’t off by even a bit, the overall sequence of “first down, then up” played out. However, past forecasts don’t guarantee future moves—the market can change at any time. Trading must always include solid risk control; you can’t rely on prediction alone.

You may want to watch the resistance around 4380–4400. You could consider scaling in short positions within this range. $XAU

Yesterday’s big pancake saw a rebound and moved upward. After touching the 77149 level, it lost steam and simply turned back downward. After the spike, it didn’t keep breaking higher; afterward, the market fell into a period of consolidation. Price mostly stayed and churned around the 76k–77k area.

Long and short sides have been tugging at each other fiercely here. Pushing up lacked strength, and selling down also failed to break through decisively, so for the short term it has been repeatedly oscillating within this range.

At present, this is the consolidation phase after the high was rejected. Whether it can regain strength depends on whether it can re-establish itself above the overhead resistance. As long as the big pancake can hold the 762 level, it should still move up to touch the 785 area. Then you can consider setting up a short position at that point. Same for Ethereum, too. $BTC

As long as it holds above 76200 and continues upward, it’s just a matter of time. Next, we’ll look at the resistance at the 773 level. ​​​