Bluechip
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Bluechip
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🚨 THE ALPHA BOARD – FOUNDERS ACCESS 🚨
After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.
The Alpha Board link
#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare
After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.
The Alpha Board link
#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare
PINNED
$BTC squiggles
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
$BTC ripped from 63K to 65K. Spot led, perps followed.
- Spot CVD (Binance, 15m): +202.28M, climbing steadily off 63K
- Perp CVD (Binance Futures, 15m): +323.26M, flipped positive only after 64K broke
- Coinbase Premium: -0.09%, negative the entire rally
- Funding: 0.0052%, low and stable. No leverage buildup
Spot buyers drove this. Negative Coinbase premium means it wasn't US-based. Perp longs jumped in after 64K cleared, pushing funding higher.
Price cooled to 64K but neither CVD rolled over. Nobody's taking profit yet.
The move started on real spot demand. But Coinbase premium never flipped positive. The biggest US spot pool sat this one out.
- Spot CVD (Binance, 15m): +202.28M, climbing steadily off 63K
- Perp CVD (Binance Futures, 15m): +323.26M, flipped positive only after 64K broke
- Coinbase Premium: -0.09%, negative the entire rally
- Funding: 0.0052%, low and stable. No leverage buildup
Spot buyers drove this. Negative Coinbase premium means it wasn't US-based. Perp longs jumped in after 64K cleared, pushing funding higher.
Price cooled to 64K but neither CVD rolled over. Nobody's taking profit yet.
The move started on real spot demand. But Coinbase premium never flipped positive. The biggest US spot pool sat this one out.
This might be the best $BTC chart you’ll see today.
Look closely at what happened around previous all time highs. Bitcoin repeatedly pushed above prior ATHs, only to reverse aggressively afterward and liquidate traders who were positioned for continuation.
In other words, Bitcoin’s price history is full of traps and false breakouts. This pattern has repeated consistently throughout the years, eventually pushing many investors to give up on the market entirely.
And every time the market tried to move higher, a large liquidity pool was sitting below.
As long as the market doesn’t flush out excessive bullish confidence and leverage, a sustained move higher becomes much harder.
This pattern has repeated throughout Bitcoin’s history, and there’s a good chance it continues.
Because in the end, liquidity, positioning, and human behavior are what move the market.
If you’re not using the right tools and don’t have a deeper view of what’s happening behind each crypto asset in your portfolio, achieving consistent financial success in this market becomes extremely difficult.
Look closely at what happened around previous all time highs. Bitcoin repeatedly pushed above prior ATHs, only to reverse aggressively afterward and liquidate traders who were positioned for continuation.
In other words, Bitcoin’s price history is full of traps and false breakouts. This pattern has repeated consistently throughout the years, eventually pushing many investors to give up on the market entirely.
And every time the market tried to move higher, a large liquidity pool was sitting below.
As long as the market doesn’t flush out excessive bullish confidence and leverage, a sustained move higher becomes much harder.
This pattern has repeated throughout Bitcoin’s history, and there’s a good chance it continues.
Because in the end, liquidity, positioning, and human behavior are what move the market.
If you’re not using the right tools and don’t have a deeper view of what’s happening behind each crypto asset in your portfolio, achieving consistent financial success in this market becomes extremely difficult.
Don’t blame the crypto market for not moving higher.
The real issue is positioning. Traders are becoming increasingly speculative and building heavier Long exposure.
$57,000 is a key region to watch. If $BTC trades down into that area, we could see a massive wave of Long liquidations.
And this is exactly why I don’t need News A or News B to estimate what could happen next.
The data is already telling the story.
It reflects positioning, leverage, and ultimately human behavior. And historically, human behavior tends to repeat the same mistakes over and over again in trading.
The real issue is positioning. Traders are becoming increasingly speculative and building heavier Long exposure.
$57,000 is a key region to watch. If $BTC trades down into that area, we could see a massive wave of Long liquidations.
And this is exactly why I don’t need News A or News B to estimate what could happen next.
The data is already telling the story.
It reflects positioning, leverage, and ultimately human behavior. And historically, human behavior tends to repeat the same mistakes over and over again in trading.
$BTC Liquidation Heatmap
The 1-day heatmap shows multiple high-intensity liquidation zones, with bright bands concentrated below the current price.
Notable leverage clusters are visible in the $63,000 – $64,500 range and higher levels.
The 1-day heatmap shows multiple high-intensity liquidation zones, with bright bands concentrated below the current price.
Notable leverage clusters are visible in the $63,000 – $64,500 range and higher levels.
$BTC
Tuesday follows through 👀
In 4 of the last 5 weeks, Tuesday continued the move Monday started.
If Monday breaks the level, Tuesday tends to confirm it.
Tuesday follows through 👀
In 4 of the last 5 weeks, Tuesday continued the move Monday started.
If Monday breaks the level, Tuesday tends to confirm it.
$BTC Is Sitting on Its Long-Term Statistical Floor and 54% Below Trend
Live BTC: $64,320
200-week SMA: $63,988 → essentially exact
Leak-free P10 floor: $65,187 → BTC only 1.7% below
Power-law trend: $138,248 → BTC about 54% below trend
Bitcoin is trading almost exactly on its 200-week trend while simultaneously sitting at the lower 10% boundary of its long-term power-law structure.
That is a much stronger framing than simply saying “BTC is cheap.”
Price is near two long-term structural support measures while sitting ~54% below its long-term trend.
Live BTC: $64,320
200-week SMA: $63,988 → essentially exact
Leak-free P10 floor: $65,187 → BTC only 1.7% below
Power-law trend: $138,248 → BTC about 54% below trend
Bitcoin is trading almost exactly on its 200-week trend while simultaneously sitting at the lower 10% boundary of its long-term power-law structure.
That is a much stronger framing than simply saying “BTC is cheap.”
Price is near two long-term structural support measures while sitting ~54% below its long-term trend.
$BTC Breakout Could Feed on Itself
Under current derivatives positioning:
−5% BTC → ~$137M dealer selling
+5% BTC → ~$498M dealer buying
That is asymmetry.
If Bitcoin breaks higher, dealer hedging could accelerate the move instead of fighting it.
Above $65K, derivatives may become fuel.
Under current derivatives positioning:
−5% BTC → ~$137M dealer selling
+5% BTC → ~$498M dealer buying
That is asymmetry.
If Bitcoin breaks higher, dealer hedging could accelerate the move instead of fighting it.
Above $65K, derivatives may become fuel.
Take note of how long $BTC *could* remain below the 200-week moving average:
Bluechip
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Last cycle , $BTC spent 46 weeks below the 200 week moving average
This cycle ( so far ), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks
Many point to the 200 week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone
The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly
Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average
Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200 week MA
Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess)
Bear market patience is a marathon not a sprint
This cycle ( so far ), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks
Many point to the 200 week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone
The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly
Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average
Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200 week MA
Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess)
Bear market patience is a marathon not a sprint
$BTC Open Interest dropped while price moved higher earlier on August 17.
This suggests a period of deleveraging, potentially driven by short covering and forced liquidations.
Now, Open Interest and price are moving higher together again, indicating that new leveraged positions are entering the market.
This suggests a period of deleveraging, potentially driven by short covering and forced liquidations.
Now, Open Interest and price are moving higher together again, indicating that new leveraged positions are entering the market.
Bluechip
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$BTC Leverage Remains in a Neutral Zone
There are no signs of excessive leverage in the market right now.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently in a neutral zone according to the Leverage Pressure Zone, which analyzes data from 30 exchanges and compares derivatives positioning with onchain behavior.
A neutral reading suggests a more stable market structure, especially before periods of elevated leverage, which are often followed by stronger volatility and forced liquidations.
There are no signs of excessive leverage in the market right now.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently in a neutral zone according to the Leverage Pressure Zone, which analyzes data from 30 exchanges and compares derivatives positioning with onchain behavior.
A neutral reading suggests a more stable market structure, especially before periods of elevated leverage, which are often followed by stronger volatility and forced liquidations.
$BTC Leverage Remains in a Neutral Zone
There are no signs of excessive leverage in the market right now.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently in a neutral zone according to the Leverage Pressure Zone, which analyzes data from 30 exchanges and compares derivatives positioning with onchain behavior.
A neutral reading suggests a more stable market structure, especially before periods of elevated leverage, which are often followed by stronger volatility and forced liquidations.
There are no signs of excessive leverage in the market right now.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently in a neutral zone according to the Leverage Pressure Zone, which analyzes data from 30 exchanges and compares derivatives positioning with onchain behavior.
A neutral reading suggests a more stable market structure, especially before periods of elevated leverage, which are often followed by stronger volatility and forced liquidations.
$BTC has already entered a region historically associated with lower entry risk and strong long-term asymmetry.
However, according to the Sharpe Ratio, this phase still requires significant resilience, as current returns remain poor relative to the level of volatility being assumed. Historically, though, negative extremes like the current one have marked regions where the risk-reward asymmetry for long-term investors began to become significantly more attractive.
However, according to the Sharpe Ratio, this phase still requires significant resilience, as current returns remain poor relative to the level of volatility being assumed. Historically, though, negative extremes like the current one have marked regions where the risk-reward asymmetry for long-term investors began to become significantly more attractive.
17/08/2026 $BTC Update
BTC Outlook: Sharp dump from 65k3 resistance, now holding at 62.5k support. Expecting consolidation inside the 62k5 - 63344 range. A break on either side will set the next local trend. Higher timeframe bias remains Bearish
- If BTC breaks 63344.66 resistance > Potential Target
63713.49 - 63856.60 or 64239.71 - 64365.24 before rejection to 61k - 60k
- If BTC breaks 62303.87 Support -> Expect dump to 61406.89 - 60150.87
฿ BTC.D Outlook: tested the 59.56% resistance and corrected as expected. It could either continue dumping toward lower support levels or retest the 59.56% barrier once more
- If breaks 59.56% Resistance -> Expect pump to 59.97%
- 60.91% - 61.42%
- If breaks 58.59% Support -> Potential dump to 58.31%
- 58.14% - 57.93% then pumpback
Macro trend is still down. Watch out for Monday fakeouts - wait for clean range breaks to trade the continuation
A Monday US Session often brings fakeouts and liquidity sweeps on both sides. Stay sharp!
BTC Outlook: Sharp dump from 65k3 resistance, now holding at 62.5k support. Expecting consolidation inside the 62k5 - 63344 range. A break on either side will set the next local trend. Higher timeframe bias remains Bearish
- If BTC breaks 63344.66 resistance > Potential Target
63713.49 - 63856.60 or 64239.71 - 64365.24 before rejection to 61k - 60k
- If BTC breaks 62303.87 Support -> Expect dump to 61406.89 - 60150.87
฿ BTC.D Outlook: tested the 59.56% resistance and corrected as expected. It could either continue dumping toward lower support levels or retest the 59.56% barrier once more
- If breaks 59.56% Resistance -> Expect pump to 59.97%
- 60.91% - 61.42%
- If breaks 58.59% Support -> Potential dump to 58.31%
- 58.14% - 57.93% then pumpback
Macro trend is still down. Watch out for Monday fakeouts - wait for clean range breaks to trade the continuation
A Monday US Session often brings fakeouts and liquidity sweeps on both sides. Stay sharp!
$BTC is showing a clear divergence:
Open Interest remains elevated near $22.4B while price consolidates in a tight range. Spot CVD is recovering from negative levels.
If spot demand keeps strengthening, this compression could resolve into a sharp move higher
Open Interest remains elevated near $22.4B while price consolidates in a tight range. Spot CVD is recovering from negative levels.
If spot demand keeps strengthening, this compression could resolve into a sharp move higher
Disputed
AI Is Making Alpha Scarcer and True Scarcity More Valuable
Passive assets: ~$15T
Active assets: ~$8T
Capital is moving.
As information becomes abundant and markets more efficient, stock-picking alpha gets competed away.
The edge is shifting from picking stocks to choosing what scarce assets to own.
$GOOGL.US $NVDAB
Passive assets: ~$15T
Active assets: ~$8T
Capital is moving.
As information becomes abundant and markets more efficient, stock-picking alpha gets competed away.
The edge is shifting from picking stocks to choosing what scarce assets to own.
$GOOGL.US $NVDAB
NVDAB-2.43%
GOOGLUS-0.47%
If $BTC loses $62.3k, it's over.
If that happens, BTC will almost certainly revisit cycle lows, or go even lower.
Why? It would simultaneously be:
- A break down below the right shoulder of the larger iH&S (image 1), thus invalidating the bottom pattern, AND
- A break down below the smaller H&S (image 2).
Credit:
Image 1 is from @TechCharts
If that happens, BTC will almost certainly revisit cycle lows, or go even lower.
Why? It would simultaneously be:
- A break down below the right shoulder of the larger iH&S (image 1), thus invalidating the bottom pattern, AND
- A break down below the smaller H&S (image 2).
Credit:
Image 1 is from @TechCharts
Bluechip
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$BTC Looks like it wants to break lower to me. Lower highs since June 14 and sitting on the edge of a head-and-shoulders pattern that could break down. I think it’s only a matter of time.
The $BTC Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price is approaching a region that deserves close attention.
This model is centered on the Market Mean Price and applies Fibonacci-proportional bands above and below it, creating structural zones of expansion and mean reversion. Historically, the upper bands have been associated with overheated conditions, while the lower bands have marked value zones and early accumulation phases.
And it is precisely in these blue regions that some of the best buying opportunities and major cycle bottoms in Bitcoin have appeared.
So far, BTC has not reached any of these regions yet.
But it would only take a bit more downside for that to happen if price keeps falling.
This is one of those metrics where keeping your alerts turned on makes a lot of sense.
This model is centered on the Market Mean Price and applies Fibonacci-proportional bands above and below it, creating structural zones of expansion and mean reversion. Historically, the upper bands have been associated with overheated conditions, while the lower bands have marked value zones and early accumulation phases.
And it is precisely in these blue regions that some of the best buying opportunities and major cycle bottoms in Bitcoin have appeared.
So far, BTC has not reached any of these regions yet.
But it would only take a bit more downside for that to happen if price keeps falling.
This is one of those metrics where keeping your alerts turned on makes a lot of sense.
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