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Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Increase Exchange Transfers of Loss-Making Coins, Keeping Pressure on ...Bitcoin short-term holders are continuing to send loss-making coins to exchanges, adding to pressure on investor sentiment, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. In a newsletter on Oct. 27, Adler said his analysis of Bitcoin that moved within the past six months showed inflows of loss-making coins from short-term holders remained dominant. The 24-hour exchange inflow balance for short-term holders stood at negative 18,600 BTC that day, Adler wrote. That marked a reversal from positive 10,400 BTC a week earlier. The figure fell as low as negative 23,100 BTC on Oct. 26. A negative reading means that, among short-term holder coins moved to exchanges, coins sitting at a loss outnumbered those in profit. Exchange deposits, however, do not necessarily mean the coins were sold. During the same period, the share of exchange inflows tied to profit-taking plunged to 16% from 75%. Most coins now moving to exchanges are coming from positions that are underwater. “The imbalance in loss-making inflows has eased somewhat from the previous day’s low, but it remains substantial,” Adler wrote. Selling pressure can be seen as easing only if the share of profit-taking inflows rises back above 50% and the exchange inflow balance turns positive again.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Increase Exchange Transfers of Loss-Making Coins, Keeping Pressure on ...

Bitcoin short-term holders are continuing to send loss-making coins to exchanges, adding to pressure on investor sentiment, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.
In a newsletter on Oct. 27, Adler said his analysis of Bitcoin that moved within the past six months showed inflows of loss-making coins from short-term holders remained dominant.
The 24-hour exchange inflow balance for short-term holders stood at negative 18,600 BTC that day, Adler wrote. That marked a reversal from positive 10,400 BTC a week earlier. The figure fell as low as negative 23,100 BTC on Oct. 26.
A negative reading means that, among short-term holder coins moved to exchanges, coins sitting at a loss outnumbered those in profit. Exchange deposits, however, do not necessarily mean the coins were sold.
During the same period, the share of exchange inflows tied to profit-taking plunged to 16% from 75%. Most coins now moving to exchanges are coming from positions that are underwater.
“The imbalance in loss-making inflows has eased somewhat from the previous day’s low, but it remains substantial,” Adler wrote. Selling pressure can be seen as easing only if the share of profit-taking inflows rises back above 50% and the exchange inflow balance turns positive again.
Exclusive: Democratic Party, Government to Hold Oct. 28 Virtual-Asset Tax Meeting, Leaning Toward...South Korea’s government and the Democratic Party will hold a policy meeting at the National Assembly on Oct. 28 to decide whether to delay taxation on virtual assets. A senior Democratic Party official told Korea Business News TV after a closed-door general meeting of lawmakers on Oct. 27 that the party would discuss the various views it has received on virtual-asset taxation at the meeting. Another party official said the Democratic Party has effectively settled on postponing the tax and plans to deliver its final position to the government on Oct. 28. The virtual-asset tax was originally due to take effect in 2022, but has been postponed three times because of concerns about investor protection and shortcomings in the tax framework. Under the plan, a 22% tax rate would apply to annual income from transfers or lending of virtual assets above a basic deduction of 2.5 million won ($1,810). The tax is scheduled to take effect in January next year, but another delay appears increasingly likely given unresolved institutional issues and public sentiment among younger voters. The presidential office has also been weighing another postponement of virtual-asset taxation and reviewing several options, according to the report. The Oct. 28 party-government meeting on virtual assets will include key government officials, including Lee Hyoung-il, deputy prime minister and finance minister, as well as senior Democratic Party policymakers. Seong Nak-yoon, Korea Business News TV reporter nyseong@hankyungtv.com Jeong Jae-hong, Korea Business News TV reporter jhjeong@hankyungtv.com

Exclusive: Democratic Party, Government to Hold Oct. 28 Virtual-Asset Tax Meeting, Leaning Toward...

South Korea’s government and the Democratic Party will hold a policy meeting at the National Assembly on Oct. 28 to decide whether to delay taxation on virtual assets.
A senior Democratic Party official told Korea Business News TV after a closed-door general meeting of lawmakers on Oct. 27 that the party would discuss the various views it has received on virtual-asset taxation at the meeting.
Another party official said the Democratic Party has effectively settled on postponing the tax and plans to deliver its final position to the government on Oct. 28.
The virtual-asset tax was originally due to take effect in 2022, but has been postponed three times because of concerns about investor protection and shortcomings in the tax framework. Under the plan, a 22% tax rate would apply to annual income from transfers or lending of virtual assets above a basic deduction of 2.5 million won ($1,810).
The tax is scheduled to take effect in January next year, but another delay appears increasingly likely given unresolved institutional issues and public sentiment among younger voters.
The presidential office has also been weighing another postponement of virtual-asset taxation and reviewing several options, according to the report.
The Oct. 28 party-government meeting on virtual assets will include key government officials, including Lee Hyoung-il, deputy prime minister and finance minister, as well as senior Democratic Party policymakers.
Seong Nak-yoon, Korea Business News TV reporter nyseong@hankyungtv.com
Jeong Jae-hong, Korea Business News TV reporter jhjeong@hankyungtv.com
Democratic Party, Government to Discuss Crypto Tax Delay at Oct. 28 Policy MeetingSouth Korea’s Democratic Party and the government are set to hold a policy consultation on Oct. 28 to discuss whether to delay taxation on virtual assets, or cryptocurrencies, scheduled to take effect in January 2027. Digital Asset reported on Oct. 27 that Jeon Eun-soo, floor spokesperson for the Democratic Party, told reporters after a general meeting of lawmakers that some party members had called for postponing the crypto tax. No decision was made on Oct. 27, he said. Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Do-geol also proposed first enacting the Basic Digital Asset Act and then implementing crypto taxation alongside it. The party plans to gather additional opinions before deciding as soon as possible whether to defer the tax. Hwang Jong-seop, an aide in Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Han-kyu’s office, said he had heard the party-government meeting would be held on Oct. 28. He said the issue of delaying digital-asset taxation was also expected to be on the agenda. The meeting is expected to include Democratic Party lawmakers serving on the National Assembly’s Strategy and Finance Committee and officials from the Ministry of Economy and Finance.

Democratic Party, Government to Discuss Crypto Tax Delay at Oct. 28 Policy Meeting

South Korea’s Democratic Party and the government are set to hold a policy consultation on Oct. 28 to discuss whether to delay taxation on virtual assets, or cryptocurrencies, scheduled to take effect in January 2027.
Digital Asset reported on Oct. 27 that Jeon Eun-soo, floor spokesperson for the Democratic Party, told reporters after a general meeting of lawmakers that some party members had called for postponing the crypto tax. No decision was made on Oct. 27, he said.
Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Do-geol also proposed first enacting the Basic Digital Asset Act and then implementing crypto taxation alongside it. The party plans to gather additional opinions before deciding as soon as possible whether to defer the tax.
Hwang Jong-seop, an aide in Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Han-kyu’s office, said he had heard the party-government meeting would be held on Oct. 28. He said the issue of delaying digital-asset taxation was also expected to be on the agenda.
The meeting is expected to include Democratic Party lawmakers serving on the National Assembly’s Strategy and Finance Committee and officials from the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
South Korea Democratic Party Caucus Weighs Delay to January Crypto Tax, Decision Due SoonCalls emerged at a lawmakers' general meeting of South Korea's Democratic Party to delay taxation on virtual assets, or cryptocurrencies, which is scheduled to take effect in January next year. No final decision was made at the meeting. Digital Asset reported on October 27 that Jeon Eun-su, the Democratic Party's floor spokesperson, said after the meeting that members had voiced support for a delay. He said no decision was reached that day. Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Do-geol is said to have proposed first enacting the Digital Asset Basic Act and then implementing crypto taxation together with it. Jeon said the party would gather more views before making a decision. With about 60 days left before the tax is due to take effect, he said a decision on whether to delay it would be made soon. The party's policy committee shared various views on the planned launch of the tax at the meeting, but lawmakers' remarks largely leaned toward the need for a delay, according to the report.

South Korea Democratic Party Caucus Weighs Delay to January Crypto Tax, Decision Due Soon

Calls emerged at a lawmakers' general meeting of South Korea's Democratic Party to delay taxation on virtual assets, or cryptocurrencies, which is scheduled to take effect in January next year. No final decision was made at the meeting.
Digital Asset reported on October 27 that Jeon Eun-su, the Democratic Party's floor spokesperson, said after the meeting that members had voiced support for a delay. He said no decision was reached that day.
Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Do-geol is said to have proposed first enacting the Digital Asset Basic Act and then implementing crypto taxation together with it.
Jeon said the party would gather more views before making a decision. With about 60 days left before the tax is due to take effect, he said a decision on whether to delay it would be made soon.
The party's policy committee shared various views on the planned launch of the tax at the meeting, but lawmakers' remarks largely leaned toward the need for a delay, according to the report.
Lucent Block Alleges Unfair FSC Licensing Process for Fractional-Investment ExchangeLucent Block holds press conference on fractional-investment licensing CEO Heo Se-young says the number of licensed firms was capped without a formal vote Company disputes rejection reasons including capital and governance “Give us a chance to compete through additional licenses” Lucent Block, which failed earlier this year to win preliminary approval for a fractional-investment (STO) over-the-counter exchange, alleged that the Financial Services Commission’s licensing process was unfair and opaque. The company argued that the FSC capped the number of licensed operators at two without a formal resolution. At an emergency press conference held on Oct. 27 at Maru180 in Seoul’s Gangnam district, Chief Executive Officer Heo Se-young called for additional licenses to guarantee a fair chance to compete. He said the company was not seeking preferential treatment for startups, but fairness and transparency. Lucent Block operates a platform that issues and distributes fractional real-estate investment products. In February, it lost out in the FSC’s preliminary review for a fractional-investment OTC exchange to the Korea Exchange consortium KDX and the Nextrade consortium NXT. At the time, the FSC gave Lucent Block low scores on capital, its funding plan, governance and conflict-of-interest prevention systems. “FSC capped the number of licensees without a formal vote” Heo argued that the FSC did not go through a formal vote when it decided to limit the number of approved firms to as many as two. At a regular FSC meeting on Sept. 3, 2025, the matter was handled only as a reporting item, he said. A press release issued the following day then stated that the number had been fixed at up to two. He also took issue with the FSC’s correction to materials submitted to the National Assembly. The regulator had initially said the cap on licensees was approved through a resolution at a regular meeting, but later revised that explanation, saying it was a working-level error and that the matter had only been reported and discussed. The FSC’s discretionary authority should be exercised through a commission vote, Heo said, but no such vote took place in this case. Heo also criticized what he described as a lack of objective grounds for limiting the number of licensees. In past approvals for internet-only banks and real-estate trust businesses, authorities reviewed factors including market competition, he said. This time, the FSC offered only a one-line rationale citing investors and the need to prevent liquidity fragmentation. He questioned the logic behind whether there should be one exchange or two. He also challenged the review standards applied to existing sandbox operators. For OTC exchanges for unlisted shares, regulators first reviewed two existing sandbox operators, he said. For fractional-investment OTC exchanges, by contrast, regulators conducted a competitive review that included new entrants. He questioned why different standards were applied even though both markets were institutionalized under the same enforcement decree. He said that approach also runs counter to the purpose of South Korea’s financial regulatory sandbox program. Under Article 21, Paragraph 1 of the Special Act on Support for Financial Innovation, innovative financial service operators may apply for the relevant licenses to continue their businesses after their designation period expires. Existing operators have the right to apply for licenses under the law, he said, but in practice there is no door through which they can exercise that right. “The stated reasons for rejection are also inaccurate” Heo also disputed the reasons the FSC gave for rejecting the company. On governance, he said his own stake is about 35%, while the FSC cited a combined 51% including related parties and concluded that the company had the character of a closely held personal firm. He said the structure does not allow him to control other investors’ stakes at his discretion. He also objected to the FSC’s assessment of capital. At the time of the application, Lucent Block had secured about $16.6 million in capital, according to Heo. That was not far from the roughly $21 million secured by the NXT consortium. It was about one-fourth of the approximately $65.2 million secured by the KDX consortium. He also explained why Lucent Block did not form a consortium. At a meeting in August 2025, the Korea Exchange had said it would distribute fractional-investment products on its existing exchange, he said, while Nextrade had said it would not participate in the business. At the time, it was difficult to expect either institution to take part in the licensing process for a fractional-investment OTC exchange. He added that Lucent Block was never asked to join a consortium. He said the FSC should review those points and provide an additional licensing opportunity. The company is not asking regulators to revoke the licenses already granted, he said. It wants a fair chance to compete through additional approvals. He also left open the possibility of legal action. The company is reviewing legal procedures, though it is unclear how long that would take. He said he hopes financial authorities will still make a policy decision.

Lucent Block Alleges Unfair FSC Licensing Process for Fractional-Investment Exchange

Lucent Block holds press conference on fractional-investment licensing
CEO Heo Se-young says the number of licensed firms was capped without a formal vote
Company disputes rejection reasons including capital and governance
“Give us a chance to compete through additional licenses”
Lucent Block, which failed earlier this year to win preliminary approval for a fractional-investment (STO) over-the-counter exchange, alleged that the Financial Services Commission’s licensing process was unfair and opaque. The company argued that the FSC capped the number of licensed operators at two without a formal resolution.
At an emergency press conference held on Oct. 27 at Maru180 in Seoul’s Gangnam district, Chief Executive Officer Heo Se-young called for additional licenses to guarantee a fair chance to compete. He said the company was not seeking preferential treatment for startups, but fairness and transparency.
Lucent Block operates a platform that issues and distributes fractional real-estate investment products. In February, it lost out in the FSC’s preliminary review for a fractional-investment OTC exchange to the Korea Exchange consortium KDX and the Nextrade consortium NXT. At the time, the FSC gave Lucent Block low scores on capital, its funding plan, governance and conflict-of-interest prevention systems.
“FSC capped the number of licensees without a formal vote”
Heo argued that the FSC did not go through a formal vote when it decided to limit the number of approved firms to as many as two. At a regular FSC meeting on Sept. 3, 2025, the matter was handled only as a reporting item, he said. A press release issued the following day then stated that the number had been fixed at up to two.
He also took issue with the FSC’s correction to materials submitted to the National Assembly. The regulator had initially said the cap on licensees was approved through a resolution at a regular meeting, but later revised that explanation, saying it was a working-level error and that the matter had only been reported and discussed. The FSC’s discretionary authority should be exercised through a commission vote, Heo said, but no such vote took place in this case.
Heo also criticized what he described as a lack of objective grounds for limiting the number of licensees. In past approvals for internet-only banks and real-estate trust businesses, authorities reviewed factors including market competition, he said. This time, the FSC offered only a one-line rationale citing investors and the need to prevent liquidity fragmentation. He questioned the logic behind whether there should be one exchange or two.
He also challenged the review standards applied to existing sandbox operators. For OTC exchanges for unlisted shares, regulators first reviewed two existing sandbox operators, he said. For fractional-investment OTC exchanges, by contrast, regulators conducted a competitive review that included new entrants. He questioned why different standards were applied even though both markets were institutionalized under the same enforcement decree.
He said that approach also runs counter to the purpose of South Korea’s financial regulatory sandbox program. Under Article 21, Paragraph 1 of the Special Act on Support for Financial Innovation, innovative financial service operators may apply for the relevant licenses to continue their businesses after their designation period expires.
Existing operators have the right to apply for licenses under the law, he said, but in practice there is no door through which they can exercise that right.
“The stated reasons for rejection are also inaccurate”
Heo also disputed the reasons the FSC gave for rejecting the company. On governance, he said his own stake is about 35%, while the FSC cited a combined 51% including related parties and concluded that the company had the character of a closely held personal firm. He said the structure does not allow him to control other investors’ stakes at his discretion.
He also objected to the FSC’s assessment of capital. At the time of the application, Lucent Block had secured about $16.6 million in capital, according to Heo. That was not far from the roughly $21 million secured by the NXT consortium. It was about one-fourth of the approximately $65.2 million secured by the KDX consortium.
He also explained why Lucent Block did not form a consortium. At a meeting in August 2025, the Korea Exchange had said it would distribute fractional-investment products on its existing exchange, he said, while Nextrade had said it would not participate in the business. At the time, it was difficult to expect either institution to take part in the licensing process for a fractional-investment OTC exchange.
He added that Lucent Block was never asked to join a consortium.
He said the FSC should review those points and provide an additional licensing opportunity. The company is not asking regulators to revoke the licenses already granted, he said. It wants a fair chance to compete through additional approvals.
He also left open the possibility of legal action. The company is reviewing legal procedures, though it is unclear how long that would take. He said he hopes financial authorities will still make a policy decision.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $110.34 Million of Net InflowsU.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted more than $100 million in net inflows. According to SoSoValue on October 27, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $110.34 million in the previous session. The market returned to net inflows after two consecutive trading days of net outflows. All of the day's inflows went to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). The remaining products recorded no net inflows or outflows.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $110.34 Million of Net Inflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted more than $100 million in net inflows.
According to SoSoValue on October 27, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $110.34 million in the previous session. The market returned to net inflows after two consecutive trading days of net outflows.
All of the day's inflows went to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). The remaining products recorded no net inflows or outflows.
South Korea’s Democratic Party Weighs Further Delay to Crypto Tax, to Consult Government After Ca...South Korea’s Democratic Party is reviewing ways to revise the virtual-asset tax regime, including a further delay, ahead of its scheduled implementation in January next year. Newsis reported on October 27 that floor leader Han Byung-do told a strategy meeting on the National Assembly’s state audit that the party would review concerns surrounding crypto taxation, gather internal views at a general meeting of lawmakers, and then consult with the government. Key issues include whether overseas virtual-asset trading records can be secured at a level sufficient for taxation and whether the tax burden could fall disproportionately on users of domestic exchanges. Han also said the party needs to check whether a tax system reflecting actual trading conditions has been put in place. The Democratic Party plans to gather views at a general meeting of lawmakers later in the day on adjusting the implementation timing and improving the system, then relay those opinions to the government. It also plans to speed up legislation on the Digital Asset Basic Act, which is intended to define the legal nature of virtual assets and establish a broader regulatory framework for the industry. Kwon Chil-seung, the party’s policy committee chair, said opinion remains sharply divided over whether to proceed with the tax. Concerns center on the lack of a sufficient legal foundation for virtual assets and the possibility of heavier burdens on young investors. At the same time, others argue that gains should be taxed in the interest of tax fairness. Kim Han-kyu, the senior deputy floor leader for policy, said the party is also reviewing the view that the same tax standards should apply to crypto and other investment assets such as stocks and bonds. With only about two months left before the planned rollout, the Democratic Party intends to move quickly on consultations with the government and finalize its policy direction. The virtual-asset tax was introduced through a revision to the income tax law in December 2020, but its implementation has been postponed three times because of insufficient investor safeguards and tax infrastructure. Under the current timetable, it would take effect in January 2027. The presidential office is also discussing another delay to the start of taxation, according to the report. Still, no decision has been made, and the specific direction will be determined through further consultations between the party and the government.

South Korea’s Democratic Party Weighs Further Delay to Crypto Tax, to Consult Government After Ca...

South Korea’s Democratic Party is reviewing ways to revise the virtual-asset tax regime, including a further delay, ahead of its scheduled implementation in January next year.
Newsis reported on October 27 that floor leader Han Byung-do told a strategy meeting on the National Assembly’s state audit that the party would review concerns surrounding crypto taxation, gather internal views at a general meeting of lawmakers, and then consult with the government.
Key issues include whether overseas virtual-asset trading records can be secured at a level sufficient for taxation and whether the tax burden could fall disproportionately on users of domestic exchanges. Han also said the party needs to check whether a tax system reflecting actual trading conditions has been put in place.
The Democratic Party plans to gather views at a general meeting of lawmakers later in the day on adjusting the implementation timing and improving the system, then relay those opinions to the government. It also plans to speed up legislation on the Digital Asset Basic Act, which is intended to define the legal nature of virtual assets and establish a broader regulatory framework for the industry.
Kwon Chil-seung, the party’s policy committee chair, said opinion remains sharply divided over whether to proceed with the tax. Concerns center on the lack of a sufficient legal foundation for virtual assets and the possibility of heavier burdens on young investors. At the same time, others argue that gains should be taxed in the interest of tax fairness.
Kim Han-kyu, the senior deputy floor leader for policy, said the party is also reviewing the view that the same tax standards should apply to crypto and other investment assets such as stocks and bonds. With only about two months left before the planned rollout, the Democratic Party intends to move quickly on consultations with the government and finalize its policy direction.
The virtual-asset tax was introduced through a revision to the income tax law in December 2020, but its implementation has been postponed three times because of insufficient investor safeguards and tax infrastructure. Under the current timetable, it would take effect in January 2027.
The presidential office is also discussing another delay to the start of taxation, according to the report. Still, no decision has been made, and the specific direction will be determined through further consultations between the party and the government.
Today’s Top Economic and Crypto Events: FOMC Day 1, US Durable Goods OrdersToday’s Top Economic Events ▶ Oct. 27 (Tuesday): △US September durable goods orders (9:30 p.m. Korea Standard Time) △US October consumer confidence index (11 p.m. Korea Standard Time) △Day 1 of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting △Corporate earnings: Visa, Boeing, Coca-Cola, PayPal Today’s Top Crypto Events ▶ Oct. 27 (Tuesday): △Osmosis (OSMO) v32 upgrade

Today’s Top Economic and Crypto Events: FOMC Day 1, US Durable Goods Orders

Today’s Top Economic Events
▶ Oct. 27 (Tuesday): △US September durable goods orders (9:30 p.m. Korea Standard Time) △US October consumer confidence index (11 p.m. Korea Standard Time) △Day 1 of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting △Corporate earnings: Visa, Boeing, Coca-Cola, PayPal
Today’s Top Crypto Events
▶ Oct. 27 (Tuesday): △Osmosis (OSMO) v32 upgrade
Strategy’s STRC Seeks World-First Daily Dividend Accrual; Rollout Could Start Next Week if ApprovedStrategy, the corporate Bitcoin holder, plans to introduce a structure under which dividends on its preferred stock STRC accrue every calendar day. Phong Le, Strategy’s chief executive officer, wrote on X on October 26 that the change would be implemented a week later if the daily dividend accrual method for STRC wins approval. Under the proposal, dividends would accumulate every day on the calendar. That means payouts would be calculated for all dates, including weekends and holidays, unlike traditional financial products that operate on a business-day basis. Le said STRC would become the world’s first security with dividends accruing daily on a calendar-day basis if the method is adopted. He added that the change could help accelerate the digital transformation of capital markets. It could also set a new standard for how dividends are calculated for traditional financial products. The daily dividend accrual method has not yet been approved. Whether it is implemented, and when, will depend on the outcome of that process.

Strategy’s STRC Seeks World-First Daily Dividend Accrual; Rollout Could Start Next Week if Approved

Strategy, the corporate Bitcoin holder, plans to introduce a structure under which dividends on its preferred stock STRC accrue every calendar day.
Phong Le, Strategy’s chief executive officer, wrote on X on October 26 that the change would be implemented a week later if the daily dividend accrual method for STRC wins approval.
Under the proposal, dividends would accumulate every day on the calendar. That means payouts would be calculated for all dates, including weekends and holidays, unlike traditional financial products that operate on a business-day basis.
Le said STRC would become the world’s first security with dividends accruing daily on a calendar-day basis if the method is adopted.
He added that the change could help accelerate the digital transformation of capital markets. It could also set a new standard for how dividends are calculated for traditional financial products.
The daily dividend accrual method has not yet been approved. Whether it is implemented, and when, will depend on the outcome of that process.
US CFTC to Discuss Regulating AI-Driven Trading at Forum With Crypto Industry ParticipantsThe US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to begin discussions on regulating the spread of artificial intelligence-powered automated trading. Crypto in America reported on October 26 that the CFTC’s innovation task force will hold the Frontier Forum on Super Intelligence on October 28. Participants from the financial, technology and cryptocurrency industries are scheduled to discuss how advances in AI could affect US financial markets and how oversight should evolve. The event will be the innovation task force’s first forum. The CFTC is advancing two cryptocurrency-related rule proposals and has also started treating oversight of AI-enabled trading systems as a key agenda item. In particular, AI agents that use blockchain and stablecoins to execute trades without human intervention are drawing attention as a new use case. As AI gains wider use in financial transactions, the need to review how existing regulatory frameworks apply is also increasing. The cryptocurrency industry has also emphasized the potential of combining AI and blockchain. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss previously said, “Humans created cryptocurrency, but cryptocurrency is closer to money for machines than for humans.” Representatives from crypto companies Tempo, Hedera and Chainlink will attend the forum. Executives from AI and trading technology firms Ornn, Liquid Compute and OneChronos are also scheduled to join the discussion. The Investment Company Institute, which represents the US regulated fund industry, will also attend. The CFTC plans to discuss the direction of AI-based financial trading and the regulatory challenges that come with it with a range of industry participants.

US CFTC to Discuss Regulating AI-Driven Trading at Forum With Crypto Industry Participants

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to begin discussions on regulating the spread of artificial intelligence-powered automated trading.
Crypto in America reported on October 26 that the CFTC’s innovation task force will hold the Frontier Forum on Super Intelligence on October 28. Participants from the financial, technology and cryptocurrency industries are scheduled to discuss how advances in AI could affect US financial markets and how oversight should evolve.
The event will be the innovation task force’s first forum. The CFTC is advancing two cryptocurrency-related rule proposals and has also started treating oversight of AI-enabled trading systems as a key agenda item.
In particular, AI agents that use blockchain and stablecoins to execute trades without human intervention are drawing attention as a new use case. As AI gains wider use in financial transactions, the need to review how existing regulatory frameworks apply is also increasing.
The cryptocurrency industry has also emphasized the potential of combining AI and blockchain. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss previously said, “Humans created cryptocurrency, but cryptocurrency is closer to money for machines than for humans.”
Representatives from crypto companies Tempo, Hedera and Chainlink will attend the forum. Executives from AI and trading technology firms Ornn, Liquid Compute and OneChronos are also scheduled to join the discussion.
The Investment Company Institute, which represents the US regulated fund industry, will also attend. The CFTC plans to discuss the direction of AI-based financial trading and the regulatory challenges that come with it with a range of industry participants.
Anthropic Files for Nasdaq Listing With SEC, Eyes Mid-November IPOAnthropic, the developer of the Claude artificial intelligence chatbot, has started the process for a US initial public offering. Cointelegraph reported on October 26 that Anthropic filed an S-1 registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission a day earlier. The company plans to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol ANT. The filing shows Anthropic could make its market debut as early as mid-November. The offering timetable and final listing date, however, have not been set. Anthropic said it generated more than $16 billion in revenue in the first half of this year. Net loss for the same period totaled about $80 billion. The figures indicate the company posted steep losses despite revenue growth driven by the expansion of its AI business. The company also disclosed its financial position. As of June 30, Anthropic held more than $112 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while short-term investments totaled about $19 billion. Investors are also watching the size of Anthropic's IPO. Earlier foreign media reports said the company could raise as much as $100 billion through the offering and reach a valuation of $2 trillion. Those figures, however, are market expectations, and the actual offering size has not been finalized. Anthropic is an AI company founded in 2021 by former OpenAI executives and researchers. Rival OpenAI is reported to have delayed its IPO plans this year. Sam Altman, OpenAI's chief executive officer, said in September that this year was not the right time to pursue a listing.

Anthropic Files for Nasdaq Listing With SEC, Eyes Mid-November IPO

Anthropic, the developer of the Claude artificial intelligence chatbot, has started the process for a US initial public offering.
Cointelegraph reported on October 26 that Anthropic filed an S-1 registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission a day earlier. The company plans to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol ANT.
The filing shows Anthropic could make its market debut as early as mid-November. The offering timetable and final listing date, however, have not been set.
Anthropic said it generated more than $16 billion in revenue in the first half of this year. Net loss for the same period totaled about $80 billion. The figures indicate the company posted steep losses despite revenue growth driven by the expansion of its AI business.
The company also disclosed its financial position. As of June 30, Anthropic held more than $112 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while short-term investments totaled about $19 billion.
Investors are also watching the size of Anthropic's IPO. Earlier foreign media reports said the company could raise as much as $100 billion through the offering and reach a valuation of $2 trillion. Those figures, however, are market expectations, and the actual offering size has not been finalized.
Anthropic is an AI company founded in 2021 by former OpenAI executives and researchers. Rival OpenAI is reported to have delayed its IPO plans this year. Sam Altman, OpenAI's chief executive officer, said in September that this year was not the right time to pursue a listing.
Galaxy Digital Says Bitcoin Bear Market Ended in June, Sees Buying Opportunity NowBitcoin's bear market has already ended, and now is an appropriate time to add to positions, according to a new analysis. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, wrote in a report released on Oct. 26 that Bitcoin's bear market ended in June and has now entered an accumulation phase ahead of a new upswing. The report cited technical indicators. Bitcoin stopped falling near its 200-week moving average in June and reclaimed its 50-week moving average in September. Similar patterns have appeared in the past after bear markets ended, the report said. The report also pointed to easing selling pressure as a positive sign. Net long positions held by asset managers in CME Bitcoin futures have dropped 57% from last year's peak, according to the report. By contrast, holdings in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have risen by about 87,000 tokens since the June low. Thorn said Bitcoin's investment appeal has strengthened. Concerns are growing that fiat currencies will be diluted as U.S. fiscal deficits and debt increase. That could further highlight the value of Bitcoin's limited supply. He also highlighted rising interest in stablecoins and tokenization in financial markets. In 2015-2016 and 2018-2019, the financial industry's focus shifted from Bitcoin to blockchain technology, and Bitcoin later surged, Thorn wrote. He said the current market backdrop resembles the late stages of past bear markets. Bitcoin has already shown it can reach $125,000, Thorn added. There is no reason it cannot reclaim that level, with market conditions now supportive, he said.

Galaxy Digital Says Bitcoin Bear Market Ended in June, Sees Buying Opportunity Now

Bitcoin's bear market has already ended, and now is an appropriate time to add to positions, according to a new analysis.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, wrote in a report released on Oct. 26 that Bitcoin's bear market ended in June and has now entered an accumulation phase ahead of a new upswing.
The report cited technical indicators. Bitcoin stopped falling near its 200-week moving average in June and reclaimed its 50-week moving average in September. Similar patterns have appeared in the past after bear markets ended, the report said.
The report also pointed to easing selling pressure as a positive sign. Net long positions held by asset managers in CME Bitcoin futures have dropped 57% from last year's peak, according to the report. By contrast, holdings in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have risen by about 87,000 tokens since the June low.
Thorn said Bitcoin's investment appeal has strengthened. Concerns are growing that fiat currencies will be diluted as U.S. fiscal deficits and debt increase. That could further highlight the value of Bitcoin's limited supply.
He also highlighted rising interest in stablecoins and tokenization in financial markets. In 2015-2016 and 2018-2019, the financial industry's focus shifted from Bitcoin to blockchain technology, and Bitcoin later surged, Thorn wrote. He said the current market backdrop resembles the late stages of past bear markets.
Bitcoin has already shown it can reach $125,000, Thorn added. There is no reason it cannot reclaim that level, with market conditions now supportive, he said.
Oil Falls Below $110 on Hopes for US-Iran Deal; Bitcoin Holds $80,000Oil prices are falling as hopes rise for a breakthrough in talks between the US and Iran. Bitcoin (BTC) held the $80,000 level. CoinDesk reported on October 26 that Brent crude had fallen more than 6% from the previous session and was trading below $110 a barrel. Expectations that tensions between the US and Iran could ease appeared to pressure oil prices. The Financial Times reported that Iran is holding talks with officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. Qatari officials had also visited Iran earlier, the report said. As of 8:10 p.m., Bitcoin was trading at $80,173, down 0.08% from a day earlier, according to CoinMarketCap.

Oil Falls Below $110 on Hopes for US-Iran Deal; Bitcoin Holds $80,000

Oil prices are falling as hopes rise for a breakthrough in talks between the US and Iran. Bitcoin (BTC) held the $80,000 level.
CoinDesk reported on October 26 that Brent crude had fallen more than 6% from the previous session and was trading below $110 a barrel.
Expectations that tensions between the US and Iran could ease appeared to pressure oil prices.
The Financial Times reported that Iran is holding talks with officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. Qatari officials had also visited Iran earlier, the report said.
As of 8:10 p.m., Bitcoin was trading at $80,173, down 0.08% from a day earlier, according to CoinMarketCap.
US Midterm Elections 8 Days Away; Crypto Market Watches Potential Democratic EdgeWith eight days left until the US midterm elections, attention is also turning to how the result could affect the digital-asset market. According to BeInCrypto on October 26, Polymarket bettors put the odds of Democrats winning a House majority at 93% and a Senate majority at 65%. If Democrats ultimately control both chambers, that could weigh on Bitcoin (BTC), the report said. One factor is the dollar's strength. Glassnode, a digital-asset analytics firm, said Bitcoin's inverse correlation with the dollar has recently reached its strongest level on record. If Democrats rein in the Trump administration's large fiscal spending and ease concerns over the budget deficit, the dollar could strengthen, adding downward pressure on Bitcoin. Uncertainty over digital-asset regulation is also a major variable. Much of the current US regulatory framework for digital assets depends on policy from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. BeInCrypto said that if Democrats control Congress and put the brakes on the Trump administration's legislative agenda, policy could shift further toward executive orders and regulator-led oversight. In that case, existing rules could be revised if the administration changes in the future. At the same time, Democratic control of Congress could support Bitcoin if it helps ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to the report. If Democrats limit funding for military operations related to Iran, global oil prices could fall and inflation pressures could ease. That, in turn, could reduce pressure for US rate hikes, weaken the dollar and lift Bitcoin prices.

US Midterm Elections 8 Days Away; Crypto Market Watches Potential Democratic Edge

With eight days left until the US midterm elections, attention is also turning to how the result could affect the digital-asset market.
According to BeInCrypto on October 26, Polymarket bettors put the odds of Democrats winning a House majority at 93% and a Senate majority at 65%.
If Democrats ultimately control both chambers, that could weigh on Bitcoin (BTC), the report said.
One factor is the dollar's strength. Glassnode, a digital-asset analytics firm, said Bitcoin's inverse correlation with the dollar has recently reached its strongest level on record. If Democrats rein in the Trump administration's large fiscal spending and ease concerns over the budget deficit, the dollar could strengthen, adding downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Uncertainty over digital-asset regulation is also a major variable. Much of the current US regulatory framework for digital assets depends on policy from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. BeInCrypto said that if Democrats control Congress and put the brakes on the Trump administration's legislative agenda, policy could shift further toward executive orders and regulator-led oversight. In that case, existing rules could be revised if the administration changes in the future.
At the same time, Democratic control of Congress could support Bitcoin if it helps ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to the report. If Democrats limit funding for military operations related to Iran, global oil prices could fall and inflation pressures could ease. That, in turn, could reduce pressure for US rate hikes, weaken the dollar and lift Bitcoin prices.
Evernox Seeks Up to $80.7 Million to Expand XRP TreasuryEvernox, a company that holds XRP in reserve, is seeking additional funding. According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Oct. 26, Evernox on Oct. 23 filed an S-1 registration statement covering up to 5,218,935 common shares. The filing was made under a stock purchase agreement Evernox signed with investment firm CF Principal Investments. Based on its closing price of $15.46 a share on Oct. 22, the company said it could raise as much as about $80.7 million. Evernox plans to use the proceeds for additional XRP purchases, XRP ecosystem-related businesses and general corporate purposes, including working capital.

Evernox Seeks Up to $80.7 Million to Expand XRP Treasury

Evernox, a company that holds XRP in reserve, is seeking additional funding.
According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Oct. 26, Evernox on Oct. 23 filed an S-1 registration statement covering up to 5,218,935 common shares.
The filing was made under a stock purchase agreement Evernox signed with investment firm CF Principal Investments.
Based on its closing price of $15.46 a share on Oct. 22, the company said it could raise as much as about $80.7 million.
Evernox plans to use the proceeds for additional XRP purchases, XRP ecosystem-related businesses and general corporate purposes, including working capital.
US Could Launch Major Strike on Iran Within 96 Hours if Trump Orders, CNN Says; Post-Midterm Timi...The US military has completed preparations for a large-scale operation against Iran that could begin within 96 hours if President Donald Trump gives the order, CNN reported. CNN, citing two US government officials on October 26, said enough forces are already in place in the Middle East to carry out additional strikes. If Trump authorizes the operation, it could begin within 96 hours. The military action under review would be broader than earlier limited strikes. US Central Command and the Pentagon are considering a wide target list that includes Iranian energy facilities, military bases and nuclear sites. One official described it as a large-scale operation. A window after the US midterm elections in November is being discussed as the most likely timing for an attack. Trump has not made a final decision, but some current and former US officials think the chances are high that military operations could resume before year-end. Still, he could reverse course at the final stage. Israel is also pursuing additional strikes on Iran, the report said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested a joint attack before the midterm elections, but the US asked that any operation be delayed until preparations were complete. US intelligence agencies assess that Iran and Yemen's Houthi rebels could retaliate immediately against US troops and diplomatic facilities in the Middle East if they are attacked by the US or Israel. In response, Washington is moving to reduce staffing at diplomatic missions across the region, including in Saudi Arabia. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are also continuing. The US military is maintaining a maritime blockade of Iranian ports, and General Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, visited the Strait of Hormuz on October 25 to review operations. International oil prices have remained elevated on concerns over possible Iranian retaliation, even as tanker traffic has increased. The White House declined to comment on the report. The Pentagon said military operational planning is a routine mission, leaving uncertainty over whether an actual strike will take place and when.

US Could Launch Major Strike on Iran Within 96 Hours if Trump Orders, CNN Says; Post-Midterm Timi...

The US military has completed preparations for a large-scale operation against Iran that could begin within 96 hours if President Donald Trump gives the order, CNN reported.
CNN, citing two US government officials on October 26, said enough forces are already in place in the Middle East to carry out additional strikes. If Trump authorizes the operation, it could begin within 96 hours.
The military action under review would be broader than earlier limited strikes. US Central Command and the Pentagon are considering a wide target list that includes Iranian energy facilities, military bases and nuclear sites. One official described it as a large-scale operation.
A window after the US midterm elections in November is being discussed as the most likely timing for an attack. Trump has not made a final decision, but some current and former US officials think the chances are high that military operations could resume before year-end. Still, he could reverse course at the final stage.
Israel is also pursuing additional strikes on Iran, the report said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested a joint attack before the midterm elections, but the US asked that any operation be delayed until preparations were complete.
US intelligence agencies assess that Iran and Yemen's Houthi rebels could retaliate immediately against US troops and diplomatic facilities in the Middle East if they are attacked by the US or Israel. In response, Washington is moving to reduce staffing at diplomatic missions across the region, including in Saudi Arabia.
Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are also continuing. The US military is maintaining a maritime blockade of Iranian ports, and General Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, visited the Strait of Hormuz on October 25 to review operations. International oil prices have remained elevated on concerns over possible Iranian retaliation, even as tanker traffic has increased.
The White House declined to comment on the report. The Pentagon said military operational planning is a routine mission, leaving uncertainty over whether an actual strike will take place and when.
Goldman Sachs Says Yen Is an Effective Hedge Against AI-Driven Market ShocksThe Japanese yen is emerging as an effective haven against financial-market shocks tied to the boom in artificial intelligence investment. Bloomberg reported on October 25 that Goldman Sachs wrote in an October 23 note that, while the global economic backdrop still points to yen weakness, the currency has become a more attractive way than in recent years to protect portfolios tilted toward cyclical assets. The yen strengthened during last week's global selloff in technology shares. It rose 0.9% against the dollar on October 22 and climbed to its highest level in more than a month on October 23. Demand for haven assets increased as worries over expanding AI investment weighed on stocks and sent US Treasury yields sharply lower. Goldman Sachs said the AI investment boom has made US stocks and the dollar more sensitive to the risk of slower growth. The bank added that the yen is especially likely to strengthen when stock prices and bond yields fall at the same time. It also cited changes in Japan's monetary-policy backdrop as a factor strengthening the yen's defensive appeal. The bank said the currency's declines during recent rises in global bond yields have been smaller than they were over the past six to seven years. That contrasts with 2022, when the Bank of Japan kept its yield-curve control policy in place. Goldman Sachs said an improved policy backdrop in Japan, the yen's relatively undervalued level and the possibility of foreign-exchange intervention are limiting the risk of further declines in the currency. As a result, investors have more reason than in the past to absorb the cost of rate differentials when holding the yen. In the short term, the bank said it prefers reducing long euro positions to selling the yen against the euro. It sees little chance that the Bank of Japan will signal tighter policy more aggressively than expected at its monetary-policy decision on October 30, and domestic drivers for a clear yen rally remain limited. Over the medium to long term, however, Goldman Sachs said betting on yen strength against the dollar would be more effective. "To hedge against broader growth concerns or a widespread AI-driven shock, the most effective strategy would be to position for a decline in the dollar-yen exchange rate," the bank said.

Goldman Sachs Says Yen Is an Effective Hedge Against AI-Driven Market Shocks

The Japanese yen is emerging as an effective haven against financial-market shocks tied to the boom in artificial intelligence investment.
Bloomberg reported on October 25 that Goldman Sachs wrote in an October 23 note that, while the global economic backdrop still points to yen weakness, the currency has become a more attractive way than in recent years to protect portfolios tilted toward cyclical assets.
The yen strengthened during last week's global selloff in technology shares. It rose 0.9% against the dollar on October 22 and climbed to its highest level in more than a month on October 23. Demand for haven assets increased as worries over expanding AI investment weighed on stocks and sent US Treasury yields sharply lower.
Goldman Sachs said the AI investment boom has made US stocks and the dollar more sensitive to the risk of slower growth. The bank added that the yen is especially likely to strengthen when stock prices and bond yields fall at the same time.
It also cited changes in Japan's monetary-policy backdrop as a factor strengthening the yen's defensive appeal. The bank said the currency's declines during recent rises in global bond yields have been smaller than they were over the past six to seven years. That contrasts with 2022, when the Bank of Japan kept its yield-curve control policy in place.
Goldman Sachs said an improved policy backdrop in Japan, the yen's relatively undervalued level and the possibility of foreign-exchange intervention are limiting the risk of further declines in the currency. As a result, investors have more reason than in the past to absorb the cost of rate differentials when holding the yen.
In the short term, the bank said it prefers reducing long euro positions to selling the yen against the euro. It sees little chance that the Bank of Japan will signal tighter policy more aggressively than expected at its monetary-policy decision on October 30, and domestic drivers for a clear yen rally remain limited.
Over the medium to long term, however, Goldman Sachs said betting on yen strength against the dollar would be more effective. "To hedge against broader growth concerns or a widespread AI-driven shock, the most effective strategy would be to position for a decline in the dollar-yen exchange rate," the bank said.
Park Soo-young Urges Swift Confirmation of Crypto Tax Delay, Says Rules and Systems Must Come FirstPark Soo-young, deputy policy chief of the ruling People Power Party, urged the government to further delay the implementation of virtual-asset taxation and first put in place the related制度 and computer infrastructure. In a Facebook post on October 26 titled "Announce Confirmation of a Delay in Virtual-Asset Taxation," Park called on the government to quickly finalize its plan to postpone the tax. He stressed that virtual-asset investors are not refusing to pay taxes themselves, but are demanding a fair tax environment. Park took issue with the continued lack of adequate computer systems needed for taxation. Citing findings from his office, he said the country's five largest virtual-asset exchanges and the National Tax Service exchanged 49 official documents but still failed to complete the relevant systems. He also argued that detailed standards, including which assets would be taxed and how tax amounts would be calculated, have not been sufficiently prepared. He also warned that difficulty in tracking overseas transactions could undermine tax fairness. Park said the US is set to participate in the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, or CARF, from 2029, while China has not even set a participation timetable. That, he added, could leave users of domestic exchanges bearing a disproportionate tax burden. Park also cited a shrinking virtual-asset market as another reason for a tax delay. Funds flowing into domestic exchanges have dropped to about half their previous level, he wrote, arguing that the investment environment is deteriorating. He also referred to the presidential office's recent move to review a tax delay. According to Park, discussions advanced four days after he raised concerns over inadequate tax preparations at a National Assembly standing committee and during a parliamentary audit, and held a joint press conference with youth groups. Park said the government should swiftly decide whether to grant an additional delay while also ensuring the effectiveness and fairness of the tax system. In particular, he urged authorities to complete sufficient institutional preparations first so as not to restrict young people's opportunities to build assets.

Park Soo-young Urges Swift Confirmation of Crypto Tax Delay, Says Rules and Systems Must Come First

Park Soo-young, deputy policy chief of the ruling People Power Party, urged the government to further delay the implementation of virtual-asset taxation and first put in place the related制度 and computer infrastructure.
In a Facebook post on October 26 titled "Announce Confirmation of a Delay in Virtual-Asset Taxation," Park called on the government to quickly finalize its plan to postpone the tax. He stressed that virtual-asset investors are not refusing to pay taxes themselves, but are demanding a fair tax environment.
Park took issue with the continued lack of adequate computer systems needed for taxation. Citing findings from his office, he said the country's five largest virtual-asset exchanges and the National Tax Service exchanged 49 official documents but still failed to complete the relevant systems. He also argued that detailed standards, including which assets would be taxed and how tax amounts would be calculated, have not been sufficiently prepared.
He also warned that difficulty in tracking overseas transactions could undermine tax fairness. Park said the US is set to participate in the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, or CARF, from 2029, while China has not even set a participation timetable. That, he added, could leave users of domestic exchanges bearing a disproportionate tax burden.
Park also cited a shrinking virtual-asset market as another reason for a tax delay. Funds flowing into domestic exchanges have dropped to about half their previous level, he wrote, arguing that the investment environment is deteriorating.
He also referred to the presidential office's recent move to review a tax delay. According to Park, discussions advanced four days after he raised concerns over inadequate tax preparations at a National Assembly standing committee and during a parliamentary audit, and held a joint press conference with youth groups.
Park said the government should swiftly decide whether to grant an additional delay while also ensuring the effectiveness and fairness of the tax system. In particular, he urged authorities to complete sufficient institutional preparations first so as not to restrict young people's opportunities to build assets.
Today’s Key Economic Events ▶ Monday, Oct. 26: Earnings: Verizon Today’s Key Crypto Events ▶ Monday, Oct. 26: Flux (FLUX) block reward halving
Today’s Key Economic Events

▶ Monday, Oct. 26: Earnings: Verizon

Today’s Key Crypto Events

▶ Monday, Oct. 26: Flux (FLUX) block reward halving
Fed October Rate-Hike Odds Fall Below 15% Despite Inflation Surge as Markets Bet on PauseThe odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase in October have fallen, strengthening market expectations that policymakers will hold rates steady. Bloomberg reported on October 25 that the probability of an October rate hike implied by interest-rate swaps had dropped below 15%. The move reflects fading expectations for additional tightening as artificial-intelligence shares have slumped and concerns about slowing US economic growth have grown. The Fed raised its benchmark rate in September for the first time in about three years. Persistent inflation pressures had prompted speculation about additional increases in October and December, but that view began to shift after senior Fed officials repeatedly struck a cautious tone. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on September 29 that one additional rate increase this year could be appropriate. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Christopher Waller then indicated there was no need to rush further hikes. As a result, the implied probability of an October increase fell from as high as 70% to around 25%. The US consumer price index released on October 14 posted its fastest increase in five months, triggering market volatility. The perceived odds of a rate hike surged from about 20% to around 50% immediately after the data, but investors later gave back most of that increase as they focused on signals that the Fed would pause. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting on October 16 that he would not prejudge future rate decisions. Still, markets took note that Warsh did not forcefully reject expectations for an October pause even after the inflation data. Experts said there is a disconnect between economic data and the Fed's policy signals. Ed Al-Hussainy, a portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle, said the economic data support a rate increase and that Fed commentary is the only factor separating a hike from a pause. Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, said there was also a gap between Warsh's message and those of other Fed officials, raising the risk of greater market volatility around each policy meeting. Jamie Patton, co-head of global rates at TCW Group, said markets need to know the rules, but do not right now.

Fed October Rate-Hike Odds Fall Below 15% Despite Inflation Surge as Markets Bet on Pause

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase in October have fallen, strengthening market expectations that policymakers will hold rates steady.
Bloomberg reported on October 25 that the probability of an October rate hike implied by interest-rate swaps had dropped below 15%. The move reflects fading expectations for additional tightening as artificial-intelligence shares have slumped and concerns about slowing US economic growth have grown.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate in September for the first time in about three years. Persistent inflation pressures had prompted speculation about additional increases in October and December, but that view began to shift after senior Fed officials repeatedly struck a cautious tone.
John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on September 29 that one additional rate increase this year could be appropriate. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Christopher Waller then indicated there was no need to rush further hikes. As a result, the implied probability of an October increase fell from as high as 70% to around 25%.
The US consumer price index released on October 14 posted its fastest increase in five months, triggering market volatility. The perceived odds of a rate hike surged from about 20% to around 50% immediately after the data, but investors later gave back most of that increase as they focused on signals that the Fed would pause.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting on October 16 that he would not prejudge future rate decisions. Still, markets took note that Warsh did not forcefully reject expectations for an October pause even after the inflation data.
Experts said there is a disconnect between economic data and the Fed's policy signals. Ed Al-Hussainy, a portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle, said the economic data support a rate increase and that Fed commentary is the only factor separating a hike from a pause.
Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, said there was also a gap between Warsh's message and those of other Fed officials, raising the risk of greater market volatility around each policy meeting. Jamie Patton, co-head of global rates at TCW Group, said markets need to know the rules, but do not right now.
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