心如大魔王

The non-farm data blew up; it’s a really bizarre set of numbers. To put it bluntly, it could even justify a rate hike.

Quietly wait for 70k. If 82k is chosen as the top, then the ultimate downside could be 67k; under normal conditions, just go long around 70k and keep loading in.

If 82k becomes a phase top, then at the current price you can short, with a stop loss at 82.5k, but I wouldn’t recommend participating this way.

If 82k is truly the phase top, there’s a chance it could fall to 70k by the end of September, which would be a great chance for the big bull run to get on board.

After the first pullback in the early bull phase has dropped enough, remember to watch SOL’s price. If BTC returns to 70k and SOL is around 80, you can also enter long positions. SOL is the priority recommendation; it will steadily double to 160-200.

Waiting with no position may cause you to miss some profits, but being in cash will definitely not make you lose money. Low-frequency trading is far better than high-frequency trading. Most of the time the market lingers in an in-between range. What we should do is patiently wait for a sharp drop or a strong rally, rather than randomly going long or short.
#美国8月非农数据今日公布 #BTC走势分析

For friends who chased and followed posts near 79,500, please remember to set your principal-protection stop loss. Around 8.2 there is still slightly strong resistance; the likelihood of tonight’s up-and-down movements with some alternating penetration is quite high. If you get stopped out on principal protection, you must find a new position to re-enter and take back the long position.

If your leverage is not big and the liquidation price is far away, then there’s no need to set the principal-protection stop loss. Just keep holding, stay still, and wait for the short-squeeze/forced liquidation (liquidation squeeze) market. The target remains unchanged: 8.4–8.8 / 9.2.

Until another short-squeeze/forced liquidation scenario appears, absolutely do not try to go short. The logic is: the market has already entered a confirmed bull market beyond doubt. Short positions must be chosen very carefully. It’s better to miss this profit from a short than to touch the top and short during a bull market. Once shorts in a bull market get trapped, besides cutting loss and getting liquidated, there are almost no other outcomes.

After the target level is reached, I will post immediately to remind everyone how to handle it. Until then, under no circumstances should you casually go long or short. If a trader can’t even manage to keep an empty/flat position, then the ending won’t be good. I hope everyone becomes a low-frequency trader, not a high-frequency one.

In the early stage of the bull market, this round’s rhythm has filled this bull cycle with imagination. 2027 will be a year of a big surge. This time, if ordinary people miss it again, then the entry cost for the bull market in 2032 will be extremely high. The current bear-market bottom can still appear around 5.7w, and there can also be consolidation around 8w waiting for you. But the next bear-market bottom, it’s likely that it will be around 10w. By then, even if you buy at the bear bottom, your holding cost will be very high…

I hope everyone can seize and hold on to this big opportunity of the bull market with me. Only by taking the rich profits from this bull market can we secure our entry ticket for 2032.
#BTC走势分析

Today, a strong bullish move lifted the “big pancake” (BTC) straight toward 80k. If you happened to have read my articles the past two days, then I believe that at the prices back then—even if you didn’t choose to go long—you definitely wouldn’t have gone short.

After consolidating at high levels for many days, it then happened—again—with a powerful surge upward. It’s basically safe to say the “big pancake” won’t take the first path. In other words, 81.5k is not the stage top of this BTC rally. Going forward, with very high probability it will choose the third path, pushing toward 88k and even 92k. In this early phase of the bull market, the upside so far has been unprecedented. The increase in this bull cycle’s early stage may be so exaggerated that it’s hard to believe.

If you think the article is too long, you can just read here ⬇️

The current market still has most people positioned for shorts. If you went short at the current price, I advise you to close your position and run as soon as possible. If you’re considering going short, then immediately put that idea out of your mind—shorting must “wait and die” until 88k!

If you want to open a long position, you can enter directly at the current price. Go long at 79,500—right now, don’t wait, don’t hesitate! Target prices: 84k, 88k, and 92k.

Once price reaches these three levels, I will post a reminder to let you know whether to close and take profit. When the target levels are reached, remember to come check the latest analysis in the square.

#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 #BTC走势分析

Don’t panic when you miss the move— the final bottom-picking entry is right here.

The current market is stuck; there are three possible ways it could play out in the future.

1. If 81k is the stage top of this round’s rally, then a pullback to around 68k is certain. But it’s not recommended to short here. The reason is that the market sentiment is really weird—nobody dares to go long. Most people are shorting. You can check the funding rates and the liquidation chart yourself.

2. After a period of range-bound consolidation at the high, the price pushes again toward around 84k to form the next stage top. Then it will inevitably pull back to around 70k. If that happens, can you go long at the current price and hold until 84k? Absolutely not. Because you can’t possibly be 100% sure that 81k is not the stage top. Once 81k tops and then crashes, you won’t be able to stomach it.

3. If the current price continues to surge violently to 88k, and if this is the path it takes, then most likely the future will drop to around 74k, where it will pick you up. But even now, you still shouldn’t go long. The reason is the same as above.

These three paths for BTC will definitely pick one in the future. So where should you place your long orders? Only after the future stage top is confirmed can you know the pullback level. Friends who already hold longs might ask, “Why do I get picked up on the pullback instead?” All I can say is: even in a bull market’s big breakout surge, it’s never a straight-line rally. And besides, this bull run started at least two months early. Don’t carry any bias—ask yourself honestly: starting from today, do you really believe it will surge in a straight line until the BTC halving in 2028? Or do you really believe it will run up to 100k within these two months? Don’t forget: the previous bull top was only 12.6.

The best long entry prices after a big drop are 68k—70k—74k. You can’t participate at the current price; the reasons have already been explained. If you choose the first path, then wait to go long at 68k—not force yourself to take part in longs/shorts at the current price.

There is only one short entry: 88k. The reason is still that you can’t be 100% sure about the top at 81k or 84k. Going long must wait for the big drop—not now.

The bull market is already here. Don’t hold any fantasies about breaking down below 57k. 57k is a price BTC will never go back to again, just like 1.5 back then. BTC’s cycle is unbreakable. History may not repeat exactly, but it will be strikingly similar.
#BTC走势分析

In August 2026, a ridiculously rough—almost unbearable—“cow” anime movie suddenly went viral. Amid everyone’s jokes, Bitcoin actually really entered a brand-new bull run. Remember, the start of the previous bull run was also accompanied by a similar kind of news: a false report that an ETF had been approved caused a direct surge of 5,000 points.

57750 has become history as the bottom. In the early stage of the bull market, the first target is 84,000, the second target is 92,000, and the final destination of the big bull market is 180,000!

The endpoint of this pump is 88,000–92,000—not 84,000!
After that, operations: buy the dip / go long. The aggressive camp can open longs directly at the current price!
If the price is not below 88,000, you absolutely must not short!

After reaching the endpoint of this pump, the subsequent drop will land at the bottom point of this bull market cycle—the absolute last low, the final “get on board” point. By then, it won’t only be the big BTC’s get-on-board point, it will also be the last chance for altcoins to get on board!

An ultra-low-probability event imagined by those who miss out: if we top out here and then pull back toward 67,000. If that happens, directly max out leverage and go long on BTC!
$BTC

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed down into a single line

Over the past three days, the price has been moving sideways within the range of 63,100 to 64,000. Volatility has been shrinking, while trading volume keeps getting lower. In one hour, the difference between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is only 700 points, and in four hours it’s just 1,250 points.

This degree of band contraction is the most typical signal before a breakout. When the price is compressed to the limit, it must choose a direction.

If it moves upward: it must first hold above 63,650 (the 4-hour middle band), and then push toward 64,000 (the daily middle band). Only if 64,000 is reclaimed will the damage from the bearish candle on 8/11 be considered repaired. Otherwise, any rebound is just false.

If it moves downward: a drop below 62,800 (the daily lower band) is the confirmation signal. If that level breaks, the next area is 60,600 (the 3-day lower band), followed by the 57,000–58,000 zone. There isn’t much in the way of meaningful support in between.

After the price was smashed down from 64,500 on the night of 8/11, it has been hovering here for three days. This kind of consolidation won’t last too long. A direction should emerge within the next 24 to 48 hours.

In terms of trading, it’s far more reliable to wait for the direction to become clear before deciding, rather than guessing right now. If it breaks upward, wait for a confirmed hold above 64,000. If it breaks down, then if 62,800 can’t be defended, it means the trend will continue.
#比特币走势分析 $BTC

After three attempts to surge past 65500 all failed, even frantic ETF buying can’t save it

On 8.7 the high was 65400, on 8.9 the high was 65500, on 8.10 the high was 65400—three times, and not a single one broke through.

At the 65500 level, the daily Bollinger upper band and the 4-hour upper band are both converging as resistance, and that pressure has been confirmed three times. Bulls kept touching it for three straight days, only to be hammered back every time. On 8.10, it even came as a single solid bearish candle: opened at 64800, the low was 63800, and it closed at 64000. It directly smashed through the lower band from the 4-hour midline, and it closed hugging the lower band without reclaiming it.

65500 is the ceiling. 64800 has turned into resistance, and 64000 is the final shred of a “shield.”

If 65500 can’t be broken through three times, and 64800 can’t be held, then 64000 is in serious danger. From the rebound on 8.1 at 62200 up to 65500, it bounced about 3300 points—then what? One K-line on 8.10 slammed it back by nearly 1000 points.

In the short term, if 64000 can’t be defended, the target directly looks at 62800. Once 62800 is lost, the entire rebound structure collapses, and the price returns to the downward channel.
$BTC #比特币走势分析

What is the market telling you when a single candlestick pierces the lower band and still doesn’t close?

Just now, this 4-hour candlestick was quite interesting.

It opened at 65100, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band around 65300, and then immediately crashed through the mid-band 64900 and smashed through the lower band 64500, with the low going as far as 64160. It closed at 64200. In one candlestick, the price went straight from above the upper band to below the lower band, and the close didn’t reclaim back.

This isn’t a wick. It’s a real body breaking through.

The statistical implication of the lower Bollinger Band is: the probability of price moving within ±2 standard deviations is about 95%. Breaking below the lower band is already a low-probability event, but opening near the upper band and then crashing through the lower band without reclaiming indicates that in these 4 hours, the bears had absolute domination.

The significance of this candlestick:

First, the short-term bullish structure is broken. The mid-band at 64900 has turned from support into resistance. Even if there’s a rebound, it will likely be capped around the mid-band.

Second, this is not a shakeout. A shakeout means piercing through the lower band and then quickly closing back, leaving a long lower shadow. Today, it closed with a real body below the lower band, showing that selling pressure is continuous. This isn’t a needle—it’s a hammer.

Third, the short-term direction is already clear—downward. The next support is at 63500-63800; below that, it’s around the prior lows.

Recently, many major KOLs have turned collectively bullish: “57,000 is the bottom,” “the bear market is over,” “the early phase of a bull market is here”—they’ve been shouting it loudly.

I don’t believe it.

The five-year cycle and the four-year halving—this pattern has been running for over a decade. It won’t become invalid just because an ETF gets approved. It won’t become invalid just because miners pivot to AI. And it won’t become invalid just because everyone wants it to go up.

In a full bear market, there will always be a final bottom where everyone feels so desperate that they end up silent. When it was 57,000, what did you see? Some people were bottom-fishing, some were calling for a bull return, and some were analyzing ETF inflows recovering.

Near the real major bottom, there’s none of that noise. Only silence, only numbness, only, “I’m never watching the charts again.”

On strategy:

For short-term sell positions, you can hold them, with a stop-loss set above the mid-band at 64900. The first target is 63500-63800.

For long-term bottom-fishing, don’t rush—it's nowhere near time yet. When everyone thinks, “Bitcoin is done for,” I’ll be the first to tell you to enter.
#比特币ETF周净流入8.53亿美元 $BTC

$64000, is this the bottom or the end of the rebound?

After topping at $126000, BTC has gone through:

12.6w → 8w
Rebound to 9.8w
Dropped to 6w
Rebound to 8.2w
Dropped again to 5.77w

Now, BTC has rebounded from 5.77w to 6.69w, and then pulled back to around 6.24w.

Many people are starting to say the bull market is back, but I don’t think we can rush to conclusions yet.

Technically:

$6.24w is the short-term lifeline.

If it holds here, BTC still has a chance to challenge again:

6.69w → 6.9w weekly mid-band → 7.2w

If it breaks below 6.24, it would suggest that 6.69 might have been the high of this rebound, and the market may seek out 5.77—or even lower—again.

Right now, the most important thing isn’t guessing the bottom, but whether the market can reclaim key resistance.

In the final stage of a bear market, the biggest opportunities often appear when everyone is hesitating.
#比特币收复6.4万美元关口