#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ Republicans lose the midterms, Tesla and SpaceX plunge—what expectations is the market trading on?
The Democrats swept both chambers, leaving Musk’s $445 million in political donations seemingly down the drain. Even he poked fun at himself on X, saying, “The laser didn’t work this time.”
But the market isn’t joking around—Tesla fell more than 3.7% in overnight trading, SpaceX plunged as much as 6% in premarket trading, and Nasdaq 100 futures followed, dropping more than 2%.
The market isn’t trading on “the Democrats won.” It’s trading on the removal of the “Musk premium.”
With the Democrats in control of Congress, two issues are coming under direct pressure: first, any potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX will face even greater resistance in Congress; second, Texas’s new governor has made it clear that he plans to pause permits for new data centers, putting SpaceX and Tesla’s AI infrastructure plans in Texas directly in the firing line.
One detail is worth watching: Tesla’s options IV percentile is just 2.79%. The market hasn’t priced in this political risk at all. The stock is falling, while options are still sitting tight—suggesting most people haven’t caught on yet.
Money isn’t indiscriminately dumping tech stocks; it’s repricing the risks of being “too closely tied to politics.” Nvidia and CoreWeave are falling in sympathy, but Tesla and SpaceX are the real targets. $SPCX $TSLA $MarsCoin
The Democrats swept both chambers, leaving Musk’s $445 million in political donations seemingly down the drain. Even he poked fun at himself on X, saying, “The laser didn’t work this time.”
But the market isn’t joking around—Tesla fell more than 3.7% in overnight trading, SpaceX plunged as much as 6% in premarket trading, and Nasdaq 100 futures followed, dropping more than 2%.
The market isn’t trading on “the Democrats won.” It’s trading on the removal of the “Musk premium.”
With the Democrats in control of Congress, two issues are coming under direct pressure: first, any potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX will face even greater resistance in Congress; second, Texas’s new governor has made it clear that he plans to pause permits for new data centers, putting SpaceX and Tesla’s AI infrastructure plans in Texas directly in the firing line.
One detail is worth watching: Tesla’s options IV percentile is just 2.79%. The market hasn’t priced in this political risk at all. The stock is falling, while options are still sitting tight—suggesting most people haven’t caught on yet.
Money isn’t indiscriminately dumping tech stocks; it’s repricing the risks of being “too closely tied to politics.” Nvidia and CoreWeave are falling in sympathy, but Tesla and SpaceX are the real targets. $SPCX $TSLA $MarsCoin
