Early morning, more news: $WTI briefly fell below 89. From the news, the discussion seems to be going fairly well—there are indications that talks will continue again soon. That suggests there’s room for exchange; otherwise, it would have broken down much earlier.
Iran’s conditions: lift the maritime blockade, unfreeze assets, and end the “resistance front.” The ball is now in the hands of the United States. Tonight, the East Desk delegation visits the U.S. How this game between Iran and the U.S. plays out—whether it moves forward—will need to be watched together. If talks break down or see reversals, oil prices could bounce back above 90, and risk assets would likely come under renewed pressure. If talks go smoothly and expectations for passage through the strait improve: oil prices may keep falling, and risk assets could catch their breath—so we’ll see what happens over the next couple of days.
Just looking at the K-line charts: WTI’s daily chart has been down for several straight days, so it likely won’t keep falling endlessly. Looking back to early August as a reference, it may first stab upward for a rebound and then trade sideways before continuing lower. (Just a personal guess.)
Iran’s conditions: lift the maritime blockade, unfreeze assets, and end the “resistance front.” The ball is now in the hands of the United States. Tonight, the East Desk delegation visits the U.S. How this game between Iran and the U.S. plays out—whether it moves forward—will need to be watched together. If talks break down or see reversals, oil prices could bounce back above 90, and risk assets would likely come under renewed pressure. If talks go smoothly and expectations for passage through the strait improve: oil prices may keep falling, and risk assets could catch their breath—so we’ll see what happens over the next couple of days.
Just looking at the K-line charts: WTI’s daily chart has been down for several straight days, so it likely won’t keep falling endlessly. Looking back to early August as a reference, it may first stab upward for a rebound and then trade sideways before continuing lower. (Just a personal guess.)
