Yesterday's non-farm payroll data was very good, and expectations for rate hikes rose to 60%. Tech stocks surprisingly surged all the way up. Bitcoin and gold have risen and fallen together many times. U.S. bond yields and the stock market have risen together, and this same phenomenon also appeared before the outbreak of the previous financial crises.
The U.S. stock market has this financial crisis warning signal; it was also present before Japan's crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis. The two giants on the AI track are both telling stories by relying on financing, pushing cloud service providers to build computing centers ahead of schedule. They are also mutually guaranteeing each other's debt, and market liquidity has been drained away.
Smart money has already flowed into Bitcoin the last time U.S. Treasury yields hit a new high. As digital gold, has Bitcoin really shifted from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset? The previous rise was also verified by the market with real money.
I'm not just judging it from Bitcoin and gold moving up and down together. I'm reasoning from the underlying liquidity logic. If AI giants' IPOs (Anthropic and OpenAI) keep absorbing market liquidity, will the prosperity of the entire U.S. stock market come to an end? Smart money already flowed into Bitcoin when U.S. Treasury yields last hit a new high, so I inferred that its nature has changed from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset.
I know it sounds a bit far-fetched, but it seems like this really is the consensus... Using AI to calculate it, if Bitcoin really matches gold's safe-haven asset characteristics, gold can be mined indefinitely, while BTC's supply is basically fixed. If the consensus that it is digital gold really takes shape, then in the future it could be 1.5 million dollars per coin; CZ has also mentioned this price.
We can start with this view and then observe step by step whether the market recognizes it.
The U.S. stock market has this financial crisis warning signal; it was also present before Japan's crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis. The two giants on the AI track are both telling stories by relying on financing, pushing cloud service providers to build computing centers ahead of schedule. They are also mutually guaranteeing each other's debt, and market liquidity has been drained away.
Smart money has already flowed into Bitcoin the last time U.S. Treasury yields hit a new high. As digital gold, has Bitcoin really shifted from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset? The previous rise was also verified by the market with real money.
I'm not just judging it from Bitcoin and gold moving up and down together. I'm reasoning from the underlying liquidity logic. If AI giants' IPOs (Anthropic and OpenAI) keep absorbing market liquidity, will the prosperity of the entire U.S. stock market come to an end? Smart money already flowed into Bitcoin when U.S. Treasury yields last hit a new high, so I inferred that its nature has changed from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset.
I know it sounds a bit far-fetched, but it seems like this really is the consensus... Using AI to calculate it, if Bitcoin really matches gold's safe-haven asset characteristics, gold can be mined indefinitely, while BTC's supply is basically fixed. If the consensus that it is digital gold really takes shape, then in the future it could be 1.5 million dollars per coin; CZ has also mentioned this price.
We can start with this view and then observe step by step whether the market recognizes it.