TD Securities (TD Securities) clearly stated in its latest FX strategy report that the future direction of the yen exchange rate will largely depend on the forward guidance provided by Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the September policy meeting. If the official guidance does not explicitly signal rate hikes in October or December, the USD/JPY pair may once again face selling pressure and fall back to the 157–160 range, while also exerting spillover pressure on emerging-market high-yield currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah.
The key battleground in the current FX market lies in the timing of the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization. If Ueda releases a more hawkish rate-hike signal than the market expects, prompting traders to push the Bank of Japan’s terminal rate pricing for the second quarter of 2027 to around 2%, the yen’s appeal as the core funding currency for global carry trades would further wane. However, from a macro fund-flow perspective, if the September guidance remains moderate, yen depreciation would actually delay the risk of carry-trade unwinds, providing a smoother liquidity transition period for global risk assets.
From a technical perspective and in terms of cross-asset linkages, if the yen stays range-bound between 155 and 160, it would significantly reduce the FX volatility index (FX Volatility), directly giving room for U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar Index. As long as USD/JPY does not experience an extreme one-way collapse, and global borrowing costs remain stable, it can effectively eliminate the passive deleveraging pressures that have plagued traditional financial markets, providing a solid technical support base for the stock market and high-beta assets.
For the crypto market, the temporary pause in the carry-trade unwinding wave is undoubtedly a structural positive.
$BTC is highly anchored to overall market liquidity; with no aggressive yen rate-hike signal emerging, it means there is unlikely to be another cross-market liquidity pullback scenario similar to the one triggered by yen appreciation in early August. As macro uncertainty resolves, technical indicators suggest that support levels for major coins remain firm, and over-the-counter liquidity is likely to flow back into the higher-risk appetite track, building momentum for the next phase of upside breakouts.📊
#JPY #日本央行 #cryptocurrency