不太懂交易

Recently, quite a few friends with small amounts of capital have been asking me to do referral commissions for them. I’ve been advising them to go chasing freebies instead. Let me explain why:

1. In the small-capital stage, chasing freebies has a far better risk-reward ratio than trading:
With the same 10,000 principal, if you chase one order and earn 600 (a 6% return), then chasing 10 orders gives you a 60% return—basically risk-free income.
To achieve a 60% return through trading is much harder and carries far more risk than chasing freebies.

2. Trading with small capital develops bad habits:
The “impossible triangle” of trading is: win rate, payout (odds), and frequency.
I believe the healthiest approach is to focus on win rate and payout, and give up on frequency. This requires plenty of patience to wait for the market to present an opportunity—and also patience to hold positions until the move is finished.
The biggest mistakes small-capital traders make are frequent trading, blindly opening positions, and randomly adding leverage. Once those bad habits form, the trading path is basically over—there’s a 99.9% chance of liquidation and going to zero.

3. Input and output don’t match proportionally:
Trading is an extremely energy-consuming thing. Early-stage research, choosing entry points, and the psychological pressure when holding large positions—all of it drains people intensely.

Some people see that I earned 20 wu in two months and call it “picking up money.”
The amount of psychological pressure during those two months is something only I know. I think making money through trading is much harder than doing business.
Successful traders never have zero psychological issues—getting results requires you to dare to put on position size, and higher position size will inevitably increase psychological pressure.

If you truly don’t want to chase freebies, then go hunt for dogs (small opportunities), where you can use small capital to fight big odds. It can help you train your research ability and reaction speed. You’ll also get a few big opportunities each year. Using small to take on big is better than trying to use big to take on big.

If your goal is to make money, then you must first choose the right method and then put in the effort.
Working hard in the wrong direction: the best case is double the effort for half the results, and most likely it’ll be a dream that never comes true.

That’s all.

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Previously, in my post, I said that on Binance I don’t run any paid groups or do guided trading. I only provide content output / ask for tips / and offer trading commissions in return.

Let me promote my own trading commissions again:
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It’s paid every Monday. You can calculate it yourself.
Most of it goes to everyone; I only take a tiny bit 🤏

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If you need it, add my UID: 1122535758

These days I also thought about how to provide more resources for friends who trust me. My preliminary plan is that later I’ll set up a group chat, where:
1. I’ll invite two real-life friends to share: one is a private fund manager (active long side), and the other is an independent trader (profited 18wu this year).
I’m relatively better at fundamental analysis, and my technical analysis is pretty weak. These two friends are far stronger than I am in technical analysis.
It’s a pure sharing-only version—no hidden agenda.
2. I’ll also spend some effort in the group to do preliminary fundamental analysis of certain tradable assets that might be actionable, and to answer some questions from group members.

If commissions are hard to set up, that’s completely fine too. Most of my content output is on the forum/public square, which won’t affect the experience at all 😁

No gossiping anymore—let’s talk business.

Today, the odds of a hawkish shift from the Fed increased, and the probability of a rate hike rose (35%➡️55%).
At the same time, short-term US Treasuries are up, while long-term US Treasuries are down.
Long-term US Treasuries are the US’s weak spot. If long-term US Treasuries fall—essentially signaling support for the rate hike—then the rate hike becomes a high-probability event.

Risk assets will definitely come under pressure across the board; gold, silver, BTC, and stocks all follow the same logic.

As things stand, gold seems to be a leading indicator for BTC. If gold is beaten back to its previous level, it’ll be hard to tell whether this BTC move is a “pullback at the start of a bull market” or a “rally within a bear market.” So be patient and wait for things to become clearer.

$SNDK
The memory sector is really mysterious and hard to explain
I don't understand a bit

I see that many people in the posts support Sun-ge.
Actually, the logic is quite simple:
They started dating based on a money-and-sex transaction. If that’s the foundation, what is Jing Tian supposed to be looking for—his money? What, is she supposed to be into his big-bellied, double-chinned look? 😅
There’s no such thing as Jing Tian deliberately “spending gold” on purpose. It’s that if Sun-ge didn’t “burst the cash,” he wouldn’t even have the right to be with her.

If you think the price the woman quoted is too high, you can refuse. If you think you already paid too much before, you can back out. But instead, they wrote a whole little essay to drive the other party to a dead end—seriously, that’s far too vicious.

Put yourself in that situation: if you were in Sun-ge’s place—a lonely person with no one—would you want people around you to be like that, cold and heartless?

I’ve been running business for so long that I’m used to everyone getting along—good relations for mutual benefit, peaceful cooperation that helps everyone prosper. I really can’t stand this kind of malicious behavior. I just have to say it—I can’t keep it in.

If someone thinks, in the spirit of “Sada-ism,” that having money means you’re awesome and Sun-ge is right—then we probably have totally different values. People don’t only live for money. There are always some things that are above all that.

On schedule, release the hawk
Waiting for a big comeback 🙂‍↔️

Finished the gossip about Jing Tian and Sun Ge.

My feeling is that in life, you definitely have to stay away from people like Sun Ge. They’re cold-blooded and heartless to the extreme—you never know when they’ll stab you in the back.

After they broke up, Jing Tian had already planned to repay the money. He also knew that posting this would ruin Jing Tian—but he still did it.

To say that Jing Tian is the unlucky one who has suffered eight lifetimes of bad luck just to end up with Sun Ge 😅

$HYPE
If there’s a relatively good time to get in, it should be on the weekend.
You need to use Wocshi to release eagle + an early whale short-seller’s spot-panic selloff to coordinate the dump.
Given the current demand in the spot market, 100 is only a matter of time.

A top-tier founding team, top-tier profitability, top-tier tokenomics, top-tier community cohesion—no VCs cutting up the investors.
If there’s another new bull cycle, then hype will definitely be the best-performing asset, bar none.

These 1,800 units of spot inventory have been pledged as collateral. To get the collateral released, it takes 7 days.
Try holding it for two or three years—see how that goes 🫠🫠

$HYPE
I already had a premonition that missing out on the hype—selling it—would become my biggest regret of this year’s trading🫠🫠

Does anyone who understands macroeconomics well want to discuss it? In a professional way—reject amateur speculation and guesswork

I think the reason BTC kicked off this time is that Bessent started using short-term treasuries to swap for long-term treasuries, giving the market an expectation of QE
So BTC and gold started up together

So with PCE still sticky, how likely is it that the Fed will raise rates? And if it does raise rates, wouldn’t it break the logic behind BTC’s launch?
After all, the Fed’s mandate is only full employment and maintaining inflation—rate hikes are also reasonable

This macro environment this time is different from anything I’ve seen before. In the past, giant companies often acted as the demand side for long-term bonds; now giant companies have become the supply side for long-term bonds, compressing the space for Treasuries

The core issue is still how high the long-term bond yields the U.S. can tolerate are, and when the government can’t afford it anymore, whether the Fed will become the buyer of last resort for long-term bonds

I can’t make sense of it… I really can’t🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Hynix’s move is just like the same 30 billion yuan selling pressure.
Forget it already—just stop.
I won’t play the long-game with you anymore.

You guessed it right again 😁

PCE data is out and rate-hike expectations are heating up.
If there really is a rate hike, then the foundational logic behind this BTC rally would no longer hold, since it’s currently following the anti-inflation narrative tied to gold.
Pullbacks are a likely scenario—wait until everyone is sure this move is a rebound rather than a reversal before going long.

Our slogan is: Don’t do crowded trades 🙂‍↔️

$SKHYNIX
I picked through the three idiots in storage and still ended up choosing Hynix
I came in early because it felt like the storage sector had already dropped enough and was ready to start moving
Let’s see how the market plays out 🙂‍↔️

Thanks, brothers, for your love.
Basically, the signals sent and the trades with the car have all made money. Taking a bit of mining profit feels perfectly fine too 🙂‍↔️

If you didn’t use the zero-fee promo, remember to find me—my rate is the highest on the whole internet 😄

For me, the attractive point of today’s technology news seems to be before the U.S. stock market closes, rather than before the session.

Mainly, regarding the PCE data, I think there are only two possibilities: it comes in above expectations or it matches expectations. Either way, I don’t think it will have a decisive impact on tech. I’d rather bet on Nvidia’s earnings report 🙂‍↔️

Trading really can’t be like cutting a boat to fit the sword
Before Micron released its earnings report, the market was saying that whenever Micron reports earnings, it’s all falling—everyone was avoiding risk.
But when the report came out, it surged straight up by 25%.

Now the market is saying that every time NVIDIA releases its earnings report, it’s down—pretty much the same market sentiment as before. If everyone is avoiding risk, then that earnings report that’s above expectations could be the starting point for the move in the market.

If you ask me right now to choose one between Web3 and AI to go long, I’d definitely pick AI—the odds are a bit higher 😄
(Personal understanding—profits and losses are your own responsibility)

Tonight's PCE and Nvidia earnings
If U.S. stocks start to weaken before the open, I’ll look to scoop up a position ahead of the data release

A lot of information from the market recently makes me think AI demand won’t be disproven in the short term:
H100 GPUs still have leasing demand
Three-year-old 3090s can still be sold at the original price
Wu Yongming says AI investments can break even in three years—if things go fast, in two years
Liang Wenfeng says buying cards can break even in 10 months

On top of that, the current AI market is definitely more cautious than optimistic. With less crowded trading, the odds are relatively attractive

Anthropic’s current pre-market valuation is $2 trillion.

Right now, the entire semiconductor sector is down, and the market expects weakness.

Only one of these two things can be true—and tomorrow is also a great time to bet on earnings results 😁