No gossiping anymore—let’s talk business.
Today, the odds of a hawkish shift from the Fed increased, and the probability of a rate hike rose (35%➡️55%).
At the same time, short-term US Treasuries are up, while long-term US Treasuries are down.
Long-term US Treasuries are the US’s weak spot. If long-term US Treasuries fall—essentially signaling support for the rate hike—then the rate hike becomes a high-probability event.
Risk assets will definitely come under pressure across the board; gold, silver, BTC, and stocks all follow the same logic.
As things stand, gold seems to be a leading indicator for BTC. If gold is beaten back to its previous level, it’ll be hard to tell whether this BTC move is a “pullback at the start of a bull market” or a “rally within a bear market.” So be patient and wait for things to become clearer.
Today, the odds of a hawkish shift from the Fed increased, and the probability of a rate hike rose (35%➡️55%).
At the same time, short-term US Treasuries are up, while long-term US Treasuries are down.
Long-term US Treasuries are the US’s weak spot. If long-term US Treasuries fall—essentially signaling support for the rate hike—then the rate hike becomes a high-probability event.
Risk assets will definitely come under pressure across the board; gold, silver, BTC, and stocks all follow the same logic.
As things stand, gold seems to be a leading indicator for BTC. If gold is beaten back to its previous level, it’ll be hard to tell whether this BTC move is a “pullback at the start of a bull market” or a “rally within a bear market.” So be patient and wait for things to become clearer.