Crypto-爱币斯坦

Why are they masters? That is the result of thousands of trials and tribulations. How much time, energy and cost have you spent on learning how to trade? If you have spent nothing or very little, then don't ask why others can get results but you can't. I practiced trading for more than eight hours a day. It took two hours a day to find targets. I researched four projects at the fastest every day, and sometimes I could only finish one. The whole team researched all the currencies of Binance and OK very clearly, which took more than half a year. Most people would be numb after just one look at the Google spreadsheet. With so much information, we think the basic information is clear at a glance. Next, we will study the K-line pattern, market maker methods, project structure and operation. This is also the reason why currencies are not shared often. The reason is simple. Olympic gold medalists only have a few minutes or one chance to go on stage, but they have studied and practiced hard for more than ten years! When you see people sharing coins, your cognition is not at the same frequency and level as theirs, and you can't even tell whether the person sharing is an expert or not. So many people often suffer a lot in this regard. They call it paying a lot of tuition fees, but in fact, they have wasted their hard-earned money. They wanted to change their fate in the coin circle, but ended up becoming fuel for others.

Learning is important, and practice is more important. There is a gap in the middle that needs to be crossed. It is very difficult to integrate knowledge and practice.

My confidence comes from the fact that the entire team has been deeply involved in the coin circle for many years and has experienced the trials and tribulations of the coin circle, and the confidence brought by continuous learning and practice. That's why I say that each coin has its own temper, because in my heart they are not just a string of letters but people with life and feelings.

ZEC's liquidations in the past 24 hours exceeded $44 million, ranking first across the entire network. The 32,760 ZEC short position held by the agent of "BTC OG insider whale" Garrett Jin (worth about $39.5 million) is now at an unrealized loss of more than $25 million, with a liquidation price of $2,571.47.

$ZEC if it rises to 2600 and blows up the whale, that would be awesome. Those who bought spot would make a killing!

The non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate on Friday were clearly bullish, yet Bitcoin still fell, which makes no sense at all. Over the weekend I spent time carefully analyzing the data, the behavior models of Trump, Bessent, and Warsh, as well as the Fed’s data. I found the reason.

Everyone thinks the data is good, the probability of a rate hike is high, and therefore prices should fall, but that cannot explain why in 2023 there was also a rate hike and prices went up. Trump wants the midterm elections, and he is still fighting Iran to keep oil prices high and push up inflation. Could it be that Trump is not worried? Also, Bessent wants Japan to raise rates to save himself, but does not allow selling U.S. Treasuries. Now all signs point to the Fed raising rates, U.S. Treasury interest costs will be pushed higher, the difficulty of U.S. debt issuance will increase, AI debt financing will compete with the Treasury for money. A rate hike will bring liquidity contraction. Everything points to a drop. But Trump seems very calm; otherwise he would not keep going after Iran and pushing up oil prices, making himself passive.

In the future, it is very likely that rates will be raised while Warsh, who has long opposed reserve balances, basically the money commercial banks keep at the Fed to earn interest. The Fed has been losing money for a long time, probably around 3 trillion dollars. If this money is gradually returned and then rates are hiked, on the surface the dollar becomes more expensive, but liquidity becomes ample. This can both solve the financing problems of AI and the Treasury, and push stock prices higher to help Trump with the midterm elections, while also completing the return of the dollar through rate hikes. This can explain the previously unreasonable phenomena.

What impact will this have on the crypto market? If my prediction is correct, then next, before the ICP data is released, Bitcoin will pull back to around 750. Then ICP will get a bullish catalyst and break above 830. After the Fed raises rates, Bitcoin will fall back into the 730-670 range. As subsequent easing comes in, Bitcoin will surge all the way toward around 100,000.

As for whether this is right or not, time will verify it. I analyzed all this mainly to prepare for my own future trades. The purpose of analysis is trading, and the purpose of trading is to make a living.

So I think that whether it is Bitcoin or altcoins, missing out is not the point. When Bitcoin gets into the 730-670 range, that is the opportunity to get in. During this period, keep a close eye on the altcoins you like. Once Bitcoin reaches the target, go long on Bitcoin, and also buy the altcoins you believe in!

Yesterday I watched the movie <八仙>, and I thought it was really good.

Several twists and turns surprised me a lot. I originally just watched it as an animated film, but I didn’t expect it to have such deep meaning. Because Xiao Zhong did the right thing by bringing rain to save the people, he was reported by Xiao Lü and expelled from the sect. In the end, Xiao Lü acknowledged Xiao Zhong’s actions, and instead redeemed Xiao Zhong through his own actions. Xiao Zhong’s original insistence on doing the right thing, through a historical boomerang, influenced Xiao Lü, and in the end redeemed himself.

There were a few parts that left a deep impression on me:
1. Xiao Zhong said to Xiao Lü that back then, he brought rain to save the people, but because he violated his master’s orders he had to live as a thief for the rest of his life, and he felt that he was stupid—why did he do that? He was hungry at the time, and the villagers he had saved didn’t even care about him. Xiao Lü said, you did the right thing. I stole the glazed lamp to save the people too; I don’t ask for anything, I only do the right thing. (Seeing this, my heart tightened. Isn’t what I’m doing also the right thing? Although in finance the 82 rule means most people will end up losing everything, I share experience and insights, helping as many people as I can—that’s the right thing to do. I have to keep going; I can’t give up just because some people scold me, don’t understand, or don’t approve.)
2. When Xiao He appeared, I thought it was Wuxin Chang, but I was led astray.
3. The Great Sage’s hair transformed into an illusion and stole the password! So classic. I have to say, Monkey Brother is still amazing—he took down Erlang Shen and didn’t put on the wristband to avoid being drained. (It’s often the underrated, fringe, non-mainstream people who change the direction of history. In the crypto world, I count as non-mainstream: I don’t take orders for others, I don’t shout signals, I don’t do rebates, and I don’t teach contracts.)
4. Xiao Lü gave the sword symbolizing the master’s best disciple to Xiao Zhong and told him to return to Zhongnan Mountain. When Xiao Zhong went back, he discovered that Xiao Lü, who had reported him in the first place, was one of the people he had once saved, and was also practicing the very thing Xiao Zhong had always believed in as right—saving all living beings. Up to here, the good intentions of history came full circle and closed the loop. (When I saw this, tears welled up in my eyes. Although life is quite tough now and I’m busy every month trying to earn a bit of porridge money, the kindness and sincerity of being a guide for everyone in the crypto world will eventually, through the results of BTB students and the growth of friends in the community, gather into tiny streams and converge into a mighty torrent, carrying me and everyone toward the other shore!)

I jokingly told Zhongnan, call me Rice Porridge Love, and Zhongnan said call me Instant Noodle Nan 🤭

If you have time, you can go watch <八仙>

ARB, as an outstanding Ethereum Layer 2, has been on a steady price decline, which does not match its completion and operating performance. I bought it at 1.2 before, then it fell to 0.78. Its performance has been really disappointing, and it has not performed well even in a bull market. It is basically a garbage public chain — I am talking about the price.

Previously, the partnership with Robinhood also did not lead to much progress. As the collaboration deepened, its cumulative trading volume has already surpassed both Sol and BSC, leaving OP far behind.

The price has started to improve. Based on the strong strength of the Robinhood exchange and the combined liquidity of both the crypto and stock markets, ARB’s moat has now formed. The possibility of it falling to around 0.07 is getting smaller and smaller. In the future, how high it can rise will depend on the trading activity of the Robinhood exchange.

Just in terms of transaction-related fundamental supply, its potential will exceed SOL and BNB.

The logic behind this is the same as when I originally judged MORPHO.

$MORPHO $ARB

Hard-earned trading lessons

1. Preserving your principal is the first rule
2. Focus on a few instruments, never go all-in, and follow the trend
3. Do not use heavy positions, do not hold losing positions, and do not trade frequently
4. Do not rush to buy, sell decisively, and cut losses quickly
5. Money can never be earned all at once, but it can all be lost
6. Stop-loss is always right
7. Missing a market move is normal; if there is no market, do not trade
8. Waiting for opportunities is easier than searching for them when it comes to making money
9. A stop-loss means losing your own money; profit is a blessing from heaven
10. Mindset is powerless before greed; strictly execute the trading system

Many people always think they are genius traders, that getting rich in the future is their destiny, and that they can master all kinds of indicators, handle market trends with ease, and control the行情 at will. In reality, they can’t even pass basic arithmetic.

For example, if you bought one Bitcoin for 120,000, sold it at 100,000, then bought one Bitcoin back at 60,000, did you end up making a profit or a loss?

If you can’t even figure out whether operations like this are profitable or not, really, getting rich in the future is not for you. It’s already pretty good if you don’t lose everything.

If it keeps inching up, a big rise is coming
If it keeps surging, it’s time to stand firm
If it keeps inching down, a big drop is coming
A drop without volume is just scary
A small drop with heavy volume means it’s time to run
If a rebound can’t break through, sell
If a decline doesn’t break support, buy
If it rises without volume and then pulls back to the right level, enter
A big drop with volume followed by a rebound, go short
After a sharp fall, there will be a big rise
After a sharp rise, there will be a big drop

I have to go see "Eight Immortals" tonight at the last minute and can't get out of it, so I'll push back the livestream time a bit. After the movie ends, it'll probably be around 11-12 o'clock.

I'm very sorry.

In crypto trading and investing, there are only two situations:
1. It will eventually crash, but you don’t know when.
2. It will eventually surge, but you don’t know when.

For ordinary people like us, the first situation is a disaster—the longer it goes on, the worse the end result. The second situation is the one we should be positioning for.

The key here is choosing the right asset and understanding the price path. If you only know the outcome—this coin will definitely rise to a certain level—but cannot identify why it would surge, then you should not participate, no matter how certain the conclusion seems.

This is the principle that you must know not only what is happening, but also why it is happening.

Has anyone watched Baxian's Coins? How is it? Is it worth watching?

The live stream content for tonight at 9 o'clock is as follows:
1. Analysis of Bitcoin market trends
2. How to position in altcoins
3. Career planning for trading in the crypto market
4. Whether there is still any money-making potential in the crypto world in the future
5. How Trump, Bessent, and Waller's actions will affect the development of the crypto market
[BTB Investment Research]: Be a good guide in the crypto world
[Four Nos]: No signal calls, no lead trading, no rebates, no futures teaching
[Coach Ai]: Live stream every Tuesday and Saturday at 9 p.m.

The release of this Bitcoin movie may help push Bitcoin's price upward. It hasn't been released yet; let's see it when it comes out.

The privacy trio are pumping again, and it’s on a weekend.

If you missed $ZEC , you can keep an eye on Dash $DASH . If you think Dash is too expensive, you can take a look at $ZEN . However, I don’t recommend jumping in right now. Let it pump and wait for a pullback. The market is also closed on Monday, so altcoins may try to stir things up.

Given the expectation that Bitcoin will retrace, it’s better to wait.

@Yi He @Richard Teng @CZ

Bitcoin has just started to look like a condom-shaped trend. It’ll probably pull back a bit and then push back up. This is just my guess; I’ve run into too many of these bizarre moves before.

When I anticipated that it would break above 815 and rise, I stuck to my view and went long. At 817 I felt it was about right, so I shorted a little and went to sleep. When I woke up and checked, I had made money, but then it still had another high at 822 planned. In the afternoon I opened a long position. The main idea was: if the news is positive, it will charge hard, and the long makes money; if it’s negative, it will also be pumped before the bad news, and that also makes money. Either way it’s profitable, so just do it!

But the data came out better than expected, and within 5 minutes it dropped straight back down, which was also a very strong performance. I just watched without moving at all, treating the news-driven spike-and-crash as a show.

The U.S. market is also closed on Monday, so with three days of closure, it’ll probably just oscillate. If it gets pumped and forms a condom-shaped structure, then the big players are up to something!
$BTC

Yesterday, the big pie ETF bought more than 700 million—no wonder it’s been rallying so hard. If today’s Non-Farm Payrolls data and unemployment rate come out favorable, then it’s possible that 828 won’t hold, and it may rise further.

Personally, I think tonight will likely be bullish. But if 828 can’t break through, then whether it breaks or not, there should be a pullback. I estimate the timing will be around late September or early October. Once the pullback is in place, it should coincide with the mid-term election run-up and drive a move up toward 90k–100k.

Actually, from a technical perspective, as long as the big pie hasn’t broken the 126 all-time high, you can still consider it a bear market. For example, the last time it broke above the previous high of 690, that’s when people started thinking a bull market had arrived—then it topped around 125. The move from 154 to 73777 for the big pie was basically just preheating. If you’re a slower, more patient type of trader, you can wait until 126 actually breaks before calling it a bull market, and it won’t be too late. After all, that kind of certainty is higher, and you can plan entries more safely—straight into the bull market.

Recently, China has started buying U.S. dollars to stabilize the RMB exchange rate. As the dollar strengthens, U.S. Treasuries also rise. Previously, I shared a chart showing that the dollar index and the big pie are negatively correlated—meaning when the dollar index rises, the big pie tends to fall. So China’s actions will affect the big pie’s trend.

In the afternoon, you could take a long position in the big pie. In the evening, when the pump happens, you flip and short it in the opposite direction. Mainly I’m watching whether 822 and 828 break or hold—if they don’t break, then short into it.

$BTC

Before, in China, virtual coin trading, manipulation, or being scammed couldn’t be resolved or were unable to obtain judicial support. Now, more and more cases show that support can be obtained. For example, the case in the screenshot: someone borrowed your coins and has to repay them according to the agreement.

If someone uses a certain identity or a certain reason to ask you to borrow coins, it is actually a roundabout way of borrowing money from you. If you don’t repay, you can apply for judicial support.

I have never been afraid of the market. I was, after all, just an ordinary little person—a tiny nobody with nothing. My wealth was hard-earned by myself, piece by piece. I don’t have any backing, so I am my own backing. In the future, I will be the backdrop—the support—for all BTB investment research program trainees.

When someone asks, “You’re so amazing—who did you learn from?” they’ll say, “Love Coaching.”