CryptoRon

I’m curious—what are the retail investors in the crypto world doing these days? 👀

Today I chatted with an older guy who does wealth management. He’s planning to go to work after the summer break. The reason is that the crypto market is doing poorly and it’s not making money...

Then in the afternoon, I saw another project: The_Beacon_GG (Lighthouse) rug pulled. I had also followed this project before. Back then, in the on-chain gaming circle, their reputation was pretty good—lots of people were spending money to buy their NFTs. Now it’s dead too.

A few days ago, the GeniusTerminal I participated in was also really inhumane. On the day of the airdrop, they only announced that the airdrop would be postponed—坑了一大波人 (they screwed over a huge number of people).

Besides that, there are Grvt, EdgeX, Backpack, and others—everything is one big anti-extraction setup. This year, retail investors and “毛” hunters really have it rough.

So I can’t help but wonder: what are the retail investors in the crypto world doing now?

If they can’t survive, then what keeps them in the crypto space?

Are they still able to make it on Binance Alpha airdrops and boosts from some platform?

Don’t Be a “Diamond Hands” Holder Easily in the Crypto Market

Late at night, when I saw $SLX —at the peak it was 0.696, but now it’s 0.076—I realized it has already fallen by nearly 90%. The airdrop value, from the highest 4000U to now only being able to sell for less than 200U, makes me only able to sigh: Don’t be a “diamond hands” holder easily in the crypto market

Besides SLX, I also have $SIGN $JUP SOL MF HSK ......

One is worse than the next. Even adding all these coins together, my cost is about 30–40k U. Now, being able to sell for 3–4k U is already pretty good 😮‍💨

So, the real data tells you: don’t be a “diamond hands” holder easily in the crypto market

My Predict now gets squeezed every day 😮‍💨

Today the market said: “Will CASHCAT reach a $1B FDV before September?” and it trapped 1887U for me.

Whether I should set it or not—I used a 98.5 limit price for 1,887 units. As soon as the funds got locked in, I was trapped.

At the very beginning, the order book was almost pinned around 98.3. I wanted to get out with a small loss, and honestly it wasn’t hard to do—but I just couldn’t bear to lose those 5U, so I kept holding and waited.

It dragged on and ground back and forth for hours. In the end, I finally dumped at 98.6. My gross profit was about less than 2U; after deducting fees and friction, it was basically a wasted effort.

Personally, I think these kinds of high-probability “yes/no” bets are like this: you make only a fingernail of profit, but you bear a black swan risk.

But I’m the stubborn type—fully aware it’s wrong, yet I still went ahead. I even planned to hold until the end of August for settlement. Luckily the project gave me a chance to escape, so I didn’t have to take on the risk—so I guess it’s still okay.

Hope predictdotfun can improve market liquidity a bit more, so users get a better experience with placing orders and holding positions.

Now getting trapped every day—I’ve started to become immune.

Brothers, have you ever been trapped like this? When you encounter events like this, how did you handle it?

My Predict now gets trapped at least once every day 😮‍💨

Today the market: “Will CASHCAT hit a FDV of 1 billion before September?”—and trapped me for 1,887U

I set the order—when I bought at 98.5 for 1,887 shares. The moment I deployed the funds, I got stuck

At the start, the order book was almost locked around 98.3. It wouldn’t be that hard to get out with a small loss, but I couldn’t bear losing those 5U, so I just held on and waited

I ground through it for several hours, and finally sold at 98.6. My gross profit was about less than 2U; after deducting trading fees and friction, it was basically a wasted effort

Personally, I think for this kind of high-probability “no” trade, you make only a sliver of profit with the risk of a black swan

But I’m the stubborn type. Even though I know better, I still went ahead—I even planned to hold until the end of August for settlement. Luckily the project gave me a chance to exit, so I didn’t have to take the risk, and I guess it’s still okay

Hope predictdotfun can strengthen market liquidity so users get a better experience when placing orders and holding positions

I’m trapped at least once a day now—I’ve started to be immune to it

Brothers, has anyone else been trapped? How do you handle events like this?

Brothers, I just cut and closed my Predict positions yesterday, and today the Week 32 points came out 😭

When I roughly calculated yesterday, I assumed the 31st week’s 2888 points, and estimated an points cost of 0.035U.
But this week actually gave 3747.67 points—slightly more intense than what I estimated.

If I roughly figure a loss of about 100U, the real points cost is around 0.027U (not counting trading fees).
0.027 isn’t actually high, but I’m still upset.
After all, in predictdotfun I was playing at zero cost 😮‍💨

Based on the off-exchange 0.07 and principal of 2000U, for Week 32 👇
👉 Points value is about 262U
👉 Gross week return is about 13.1%
👉 After deducting that 100U, the net week return is about 8.1%
Annualized, that comes out to a bit over four hundred 💰
But this is an off-exchange estimated calculation—if the price changes, the numbers change too, so it can only be used as a reference.

Honestly, the points are getting more and more. This 100U loss is also diluting things.
But once the zero-cost breaks, the experience is totally different.

How many points did you get in Week 32? If you’re in the middle of it, go check 👀

Korean stock meme mania has gotten out of control—these past two days you can see daily information about Korean stock circuit breakers.

As for stocks related to SK Hynix, for example $SKHY $KORU $SOXL —it's really a bloodbath: swings of over ten percentage points, sometimes dozens of points, in a single day.

Aren’t we supposed to say that SK Hynix is the fate of Korea? Where’s the stock-market support then? Is the country’s fortune really like this?

Brothers, Binance has also listed a Solana contract:iUSRerdqvY4Si9PxT8e5RZtnvvM4MsV1EVrKPPBpump , but note: it’s not the Binance main platform, US-dollar-denominated contract. It’s Binance Wallet Perpetuals (Aster)

Wallet Perpetuals and main platform contracts are completely different things. If anything goes wrong, the responsibility is not on Binance’s main platform either. Don’t treat it like a legitimate Binance contract and go charging in.

This also shows Binance’s little careful thinking:

solana:iUSRerdqvY4Si9PxT8e5RZtnvvM4MsV1EVrKPPBpump The traffic and fees from this wave are just too attractive (both the trading volume and fees are at the front of the pack). They don’t want to miss out.

But given regulatory and compliance risks, they’re too afraid to go straight onto the main platform. So they use the wallet perpetuals as a compromise: I’ll take in the traffic and fees first; if anything happens, it’s Aster’s problem, and it has nothing to do with the main platform.

Now some platform, Hyperliquid is already flying high. Binance hasn’t really entered the main platform contract hall yet, but they’ve also taken a half step in.

Brothers, Zhongxin Technology’s money-making effect is just too strong. The issue price was 8.66, the opening price was 49.5, and the gain is roughly 471%.

Today, all the flow and capital are in CXMT.

I just took a look:
👉 HyperliquidX: In the past 24 hours, trading volume was about 235 million U, ranking 3rd in the xyz stocks and commodities book; open interest is about 92 million U in notional value, also in the front row.
👉 Some platform

Why are some brothers still asking in the group, “How many meters for Blue V?” and then obediently handing over the password and paying 35 meters per month to have it done? 😓

35R per month means you’re spending the equivalent of 62.5u in a year. If it costs 350 to open for a year, that’s still 52u.

There are clearly channels around 45U for a year—why not use the cheaper option? Yet people are still rushing to pay a high price, and they also have to give others their account password. It’s just unsettling.

I tried one myself before: around 45U per year. You only need the account name—no password or verification code needed. The speed was decent; it was done within 10 minutes.

The official price is about 85U per year. The usual “agency” openings outside are commonly around 50–60U. This one is even cheaper—only 45u.

Brothers, if you really need to open it, please don’t go down the “monthly payment + hand over the password” route.

I put the link in the comments—go grab it yourself.

Huang Renxun’s follower count went from 18,000 to 100,000—just took less than an hour.

Right now, Old Huang follows 22 people. Besides accounts related to NVIDIA, it’s all frontline AI and cloud/platform giants’ accounts like OpenAI, Google, Meta, and xAI.

And there’s a fun little twist: he hasn’t followed realDonaldTrump. Everyone guess—did Trump follow Old Huang first, or did Old Huang follow Trump first?

It feels like you could open a prediction on Predictfun: predict when Jensen Huang’s follower count will cross 1 million; also predict which people Old Huang will follow, and which people will proactively follow Old Huang. These are all really interesting prediction topics.

dingalingts predictdotfun yuexiaoyu TC8880

Brothers, I’ve been shouting “predictdotfun” to bring weather forecasts a few months ago—now it’s finally live. Overall, I think the direction is pretty promising.

Cities with maximum temperature prediction are open—Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Taipei, etc. are all playable. For someone like me who already scores on Predict, this adds another tradable lane.

But compared with Polymarket’s weather market, the gap is still pretty clear. In my personal view, it mainly comes down to these areas below👇

1️⃣ Liquidity is worse by a notch

👉On Predict: for 7/23, the intraday trading volume for Hong Kong and Shanghai is around the 12,000 U range; and many 7/24 markets are still sitting at $0 Vol.
👉On Polymarket: the Hong Kong local market for 7/24 already has over 60,000 U in volume; for 7/23 Hong Kong it’s even in the 200,000+ U range. London and Seoul also reach 50–60k U in a day.

When guessing the same temperatures, one side is still in cold start, while the other side can already trade in a serious way and enter/exit normally.

2️⃣ Fewer cities and fewer contract types

👉On Predict there are currently about ten-odd cities, mainly focusing on maximum temperature.

👉On Polymarket’s weather page, coverage is denser: Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Madrid, and more—plus markets for minimum temperature too.

Once the coverage opens up, the number of mispricings and information gaps you can exploit also increases.

3️⃣ Order book depth is different

On Predict, many temperature tiers are still empty or don’t have complete quotes. On Polymarket, for popular cities, each tier has volume—your slippage experience is completely in a different world.

In short-cycle markets like weather, without depth it’s hard to get filled at model prices; it easily turns into a “self-entertainment” market.

Some suggestions for the Predict team (personal opinion) 🔥🔥🔥

1. Liquidity is the biggest problem—nail it down first; everything else comes second.

2. Make the popular cities really thorough first: prioritize stacking depth for Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, New York, and London. Don’t rush to roll out a bunch of empty markets with 0 Vol.

3. During the cold-start period, incentivize market makers / use points weighting to move intraday volume from a few thousand U to stable five figures. Once the book thickens, there naturally will be people trading both ways.

4. Then gradually improve: expand cities, add maximum/minimum temperature, and write the settlement source links into the rules page—so users can verify at a glance.

Hope dingalingts yuexiaoyu TC8880 sees this—I really want to play weather forecasting on Predict 😩

If liquidity and depth can be made to match Polymarket, then I believe more people will be willing to come play weather forecasting on Predict (and then I’ll go call the brothers I’ve been playing weather forecasting with on Polymarket to come over and play together).

Also, weather forecasting is something that can be traded every day and every hour—its generated traffic and trading volume really can’t be ignored.

Brothers, SafePal Gas Station event is worth trying out

0️⃣ Cost: there are 10,000 spots in total, first come first served

You know, the most annoying part of multi-chain isn’t having more assets—it’s gas management

If you play on Solana, have some $SOL ready; if you play on BNB Chain, have $BNB ready; if you play on ETH, have $ETH ready. Every time you switch chains, you have to pre-stock a bit of transaction fees. You’ve got U in your wallet, but you’re just short on that little bit of gas—then the transaction gets stuck. Doesn’t that feel disgusting?

Recently I tried SafePal’s Gas Station, and the experience is pretty good. It solves exactly this problem: one recharge, smooth travel across multiple chains

Now it supports 8 chains: Ethereum, Tron, Solana, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, Base, Polygon, and Sonic

Recharges can also be done with USDC, USDT, and SFP. Google Pay, Apple Pay, PayPal, Octopus, and AlipayHK can also be used

Personally, I think this kind of feature is quite useful for people who frequently do cross-chain farming and arbitrage. You don’t need to scatter gas in every chain, the operations aren’t convoluted, and you don’t have to struggle to find cross-chain bridges

Now the Solana free trial has opened. In the app “Explore,” you can go in:
👉 You can freely experience 1 Solana transaction
👉 Recharge ≥ 1U to the Gas Station, then unlock 1 more free opportunity
👉 The first 10,000 users, first come first served

If you’re interested, brothers, go try it

I noticed the speed of people claiming SafePalCN benefits is a bit fast—hurry up and claim it. Even after you’ve claimed it and use it later, you can still save quite a bit of money 😂

Note: This post is for information sharing aimed at non-US audiences, not investment advice. DYOR

Not updating for the same few days—some people have left the scene, and some have bought houses.

The two teachers, snowmawer and eastweb3eth, are KOLs I’ve followed along the way—especially Teacher Xue Ren, whose real operations and everyday sharing are well worth a lot of hair-pulling (i.e., crypto) people learning from.

Today I came across a post about the two of them. The time span is almost the same, yet it feels like two different worlds.

Teacher Xue Ren has left the scene, choosing to lie low, go back to his hometown, heal his spine and neck, and do some hands-on, real-world work.

But Teacher Nika posted that he bought a house for the second time in his life—full of positive energy, bold and magnificent.

And with the current market situation not so good, it’s hard to make money with “hair-pulling” (i.e., trading/mining). It really makes people sigh.

And there are always brothers asking me how to get through a bear market. The truth is, I’ve answered this question more than once.

In the crypto world, you need to find your own cash-flow income. That way, whether it’s a bear market or a bull market, you can survive. After all, if you can keep living, there’s hope.

In my view, whether it’s hair-pulling, new listings, prediction, or wealth management—these are all just tools. Without cash flow, your mindset easily collapses, and you’re prone to trouble; or you keep forcing it until your body gives out first.

The hardest part of a bear market is not missing out—it’s running out of food (i.e., cash). With positive cash flow, people can slow down, and when opportunities come, they can be taken and held.

The World Cup is over—congratulations to Spain 🇪🇸 for winning the 2026 Canada–Mexico–United States World Cup champion!

After 39 days of chaos, in the end Spain beat Argentina in the final.

How many chances do we get in a lifetime for these four-year cycles? At last, I managed to stay up late and see the ending 😂

It reminds me that yesterday I bought 100 shares of Argentina Lose on predictdotfun. This time, I didn’t get caught again—I made 25U. Feeling great~

Is this the end for Messi? Can we still see him in the next World Cup?

Brothers, which side were you on back then? If you guessed right, drop a comment in the comment section.

Now that the World Cup is over, what’s the next big hot topic?

The World Cup is over—congratulations to Spain 🇪🇸 for winning the 2026 Canada–Mexico World Cup!

After 39 days of chaos, in the end Spain won the final against Argentina.

How many chances do you get in a lifetime to have a four-year cycle? Finally stayed up late enough to see the ending 😂

It reminds me that yesterday I bought 100 shares of Argentina Lose on predictdotfun. This time I didn’t fall for it a second time—I made 25U. So good～

Is Messi’s era finally coming to an end? Can we still see him at the next World Cup?

Brothers, which side were you on back then? If you guessed right, drop a comment in the comment section.

With the World Cup behind us, what’s the next big hot topic?

Predict predictdotfun cashed out. This week exploded!!!

Last week’s score data: 1052.98 points, 0 cost, 125 principal, with 1U yielding 8.4 points

Estimated earnings: 1052.98 points for the week. At an off-site points price of 0.06, the points value is 63.17U. Weekly return rate: 50.5%🔥

Overall account score data: 1348 points, cost 135, average points cost: 0.1

Let’s break it down simply 👇

1️⃣ Efficiency improved: previously it was usually around 1U for ~1 point. This week it was 1U for 8.4 points—125U principal is producing points much faster

Also this week I added 975U of funds. If calculated at this efficiency, this week’s points need to reach 8190

2️⃣ Average cost down to 0.1: overall points are becoming cheaper. It’s not just a one-week beauty—going forward it can further lower my early points cost that was too high

3️⃣ 50.5% is based on off-site 0.06 estimated pricing, not guaranteed U you can safely receive. If the price changes, returns change too. This can only be used as a reference

4️⃣ 0 cost is crucial: there’s no extra friction to consume the paper gains, and the experience is even better. If I can keep this up, then all participation can remain at 0 cost

Next, the program keeps running in the background. I’ll personally watch for a week first to see if the efficiency can hold steady

Brothers, how many points did you get last week, and what was your points efficiency—how many U per 1 point? Let’s chat

Finally, the above information is not investment advice—just a record and analysis of the project I’m participating in. It’s not information sharing for an American audience either. Not investment advice—DYOR

It’s the final World Cup match—if I don’t play a round, I’ll really just watch the whole thing from the sidelines 😂

The 2026 World Cup across the US, Canada, and Mexico lasts 39 days, starting June 11 and ending July 19. From start to finish, I haven’t really paid much attention or gotten too involved.

Today it’s the final. Gotta play a round—staying up late to watch the match tonight!

How many times in life do you get a four-year cycle? How many World Cups are there in life?

Final: Spain 🇪🇸 vs Argentina 🇦🇷

Last time Norway played against Argentina, I went all-in with the 18,000 points I painstakingly accumulated on a certain platform. I predicted Argentina Lose—and it went wrong.

This time Spain plays against Argentina. I still support Argentina Lose, and on predictdotfun I bought 100 shares of Argentina Lose. I don’t believe I’ll mess up a second time.

Just for personal fun—wins and losses are fate. Don’t be reckless. Not investment advice.

Brothers, do you think Argentina can still win this time?

Brothers, who do you think the championship trophy will go to this year?

OPENAI pre-market price dropped. A brother asked me whether participating in a new issue on a certain platform could lead to losses?

In my opinion, it won’t. Here’s why👇

👉 The cost to subscribe is 722, and it’s around 750 now. This is more of a question of making more or less profit, and it won’t affect the safety of your principal.

👉 Binance and that platform’s pre-market contract market value is currently around 1T. It’s still some distance away from the 895 billion market cap of that platform’s new issue, so the chance of losses isn’t high.

👉 That platform just had an incident. If they still let users lose money when participating in new issues, then people really won’t be able to play on that platform anymore.

Based on my own data:⬇️

I subscribed 300,000 GUSD and received 64.48 shares of $OPENAI . My cost was about 46,550 U.

Yesterday, at 770, I could still make 3,110 U profit, a return rate of 6.7%.

Today, at 750, the profit per share is only about 28 U, and the total profit is compressed to roughly 1,810 U, with a return rate of about 3.9%.

This data is still pretty good. After all, right now the whole U.S. stock market is moving downhill, so not being greedy is still a win.

Also, when redeeming GUSD, there was no redemption fee either—so it effectively saved another 600 U. The overall feeling is still acceptable.

However, in the end it still depends on the overall market and what’s happening with OPENAI. If OPENAI’s real stock drops significantly, then participating in the new issue will absolutely result in losses. As of now, the real stock hasn’t crashed, and this small pre-market pullback is still something you can withstand.

Those are my thoughts and data. Feel free to discuss and exchange ideas with everyone.

Many people ask me: Since you’re bullish on Bitcoin, why buy $STRC instead of just holding $BTC or going all-in on $MSTR ?

In my view, this isn’t about which one is “better.” It’s about what kind of money you want to make.

Let’s break down these three things simply 👇

BTC: You directly hold Bitcoin itself. Up and down is simply the asset’s performance. The logic is the cleanest, but there’s also no dividends—so if it doesn’t rise, it basically just idles.

MSTR: Ordinary shares of the Strategy company. The company holds a large amount of BTC, so it’s like a leveraged Bitcoin exposure. It has big upside—during a bull market it can be extremely explosive. But in a bear market it often hurts more too. Also, ordinary shares usually aren’t fed by stable dividend payments.

STRC: The Stretch preferred shares issued by the same company. It’s not about who pumps harder. The core is cash dividends. It currently pays around 12% annualized, with distributions every half month. It also includes a floating interest rate feature, designed to pull the price toward the $100 par value.

Same Bitcoin narrative—three different seats: BTC is digital capital, STRC is more digital credit, and MSTR is more digital equity.

Different seats mean different sources of returns.

So why am I more bullish on STRC? The logic is roughly these layers:

1️⃣ Different return paths

BTC and MSTR mainly rely on price appreciation. What you earn is valuation changes.

STRC first gives you coupon/dividend income. For ordinary people, I think seeing regular deposits in your account feels much more stable, and it also makes it easier to plan your own capital.

2️⃣ A bit more certainty

I’m not saying STRC has no risk—preferred shares aren’t bank deposits either.

But personally, I think having a clear dividend mechanism is more predictable than simply betting on the next round of a rally. When the market is choppy or moving sideways, this difference is amplified.

3️⃣ Higher in the credit ranking

In simple terms, the capital structure: when things go wrong, preferred shares usually rank ahead of ordinary shares.

So with the same Strategy ship, STRC is relatively more like the seat where you get cash flow first—not the one where you’re left with the last scraps after everything else.

4️⃣ Price has an anchor; it’s not purely emotion-driven

Floating dividends adjust based on whether the price is higher or lower, pulling it toward par value.

Underneath that are also the company’s massive BTC reserves and the full capital structure supporting it. Note: this doesn’t mean BTC is directly pledged to you, and it’s not a guaranteed redemption. But compared with “story tickets” priced purely on narratives, the pricing logic is indeed clearer.

To sum it up:

If you want the purest Bitcoin exposure, just hold BTC.

If you firmly believe in a bull market, can withstand volatility, and want stronger leverage-like upside, go with MSTR.

If you’re bullish on Bitcoin too, but you’d rather receive more predictable cash inflows first and get less dizzy from daily price noise, then I lean toward STRC.

For my part, during this period I’ve been allocating under this framework. So for stability, I’ve gone heavy on saturn_credit’s sUSDat.

What about you—are you currently just hoarding coins and holding ordinary shares, or are you also looking at the preferred-share layer?

Finally, none of the above is investment advice—just sharing the projects I’m participating in and the research I’m doing. It’s also not information sharing targeted at a U.S. audience. Everyone should do their own research.

Important note: The Saturn key in Aspecta and YT-USDat on Pendle are fundamentally not the same thing—don’t buy them together 😓

A brother told me today that these two are the same item, and he even bragged about it to me like an idiot. I spent a long time explaining it to him until he finally understood. I’ll also use this chance to普及 (share) with you all so you don’t step into a trap.

1️⃣ Core differences

👉 In Aspecta pre-market, you’re buying the Saturn token narrative—betting on the TGE valuation and the token’s price movements. It’s like buying equity expectations: it can be traded continuously, with no expiration date.

👉 YT-USDat (Pendle) is different—you’re buying an exposure to Gravity Points. Holding yt-USDat means you have 30x points right now. It doesn’t generate yield/interest on its own, so YT doesn’t earn money from STRC dividends. Its core value is the points. But it expires on August 27 and goes to zero—so it’s basically buying a points lottery.

2️⃣ Different pricing logic

👉 Aspecta: Saturn launched on June 22 on aspecta_ai pre-market, with an initial market cap of around $30 million. It even surged to $200 million (about 7x).

The market prices it as saturn_credit approaches TGE. The token narrative has already been “priced into” the valuation. The price will fluctuate, but the logic is simply betting on the token launch and betting on the FDV.

👉 YT-USDat: On pendle_fi the current price is around $0.0095, and the pool liquidity is about $8.5 million. Holding yt-USDat gives you 30x points, with 46 days left until expiration 🔥

The market prices it based on: “USDat doesn’t earn yield + expires soon + YT expires and goes to zero.” That’s why it trades below 0.01. The implied APY is about 7.9%, but this is based on the zero-at-expiry structure—don’t treat it like ordinary fixed-income APY.

3️⃣ Where the opportunity is

Aspecta is expensive → buy TGE valuation.
YT-USDat is cheap → buy a points lottery.
Same narrative, two different positions.

1. If you believe in FDV and are willing to take risks → Aspecta
2. If you believe in the airdrop and don’t want to buy at a high spot price → YT-USDat
3. If you want points + STRC exposure → YT-sUSDat
4. If you want stability and don’t want to gamble on expiration → hold USDat / LP
5. If you believe both sides → Aspecta + YT combo

In fact, the pricing mismatch itself is the opportunity 👀

Finally, the above is not investment advice—just sharing the projects and research I participated in. It’s also not information meant specifically for U.S. audiences. Everyone should do your own research.