Brothers, I’ve been shouting “predictdotfun” to bring weather forecasts a few months ago—now it’s finally live. Overall, I think the direction is pretty promising.
Cities with maximum temperature prediction are open—Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Taipei, etc. are all playable. For someone like me who already scores on Predict, this adds another tradable lane.
But compared with Polymarket’s weather market, the gap is still pretty clear. In my personal view, it mainly comes down to these areas below👇
1️⃣ Liquidity is worse by a notch
👉On Predict: for 7/23, the intraday trading volume for Hong Kong and Shanghai is around the 12,000 U range; and many 7/24 markets are still sitting at $0 Vol.
👉On Polymarket: the Hong Kong local market for 7/24 already has over 60,000 U in volume; for 7/23 Hong Kong it’s even in the 200,000+ U range. London and Seoul also reach 50–60k U in a day.
When guessing the same temperatures, one side is still in cold start, while the other side can already trade in a serious way and enter/exit normally.
2️⃣ Fewer cities and fewer contract types
👉On Predict there are currently about ten-odd cities, mainly focusing on maximum temperature.
👉On Polymarket’s weather page, coverage is denser: Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Madrid, and more—plus markets for minimum temperature too.
Once the coverage opens up, the number of mispricings and information gaps you can exploit also increases.
3️⃣ Order book depth is different
On Predict, many temperature tiers are still empty or don’t have complete quotes. On Polymarket, for popular cities, each tier has volume—your slippage experience is completely in a different world.
In short-cycle markets like weather, without depth it’s hard to get filled at model prices; it easily turns into a “self-entertainment” market.
Some suggestions for the Predict team (personal opinion) 🔥🔥🔥
1. Liquidity is the biggest problem—nail it down first; everything else comes second.
2. Make the popular cities really thorough first: prioritize stacking depth for Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, New York, and London. Don’t rush to roll out a bunch of empty markets with 0 Vol.
3. During the cold-start period, incentivize market makers / use points weighting to move intraday volume from a few thousand U to stable five figures. Once the book thickens, there naturally will be people trading both ways.
4. Then gradually improve: expand cities, add maximum/minimum temperature, and write the settlement source links into the rules page—so users can verify at a glance.
Hope dingalingts yuexiaoyu TC8880 sees this—I really want to play weather forecasting on Predict 😩
If liquidity and depth can be made to match Polymarket, then I believe more people will be willing to come play weather forecasting on Predict (and then I’ll go call the brothers I’ve been playing weather forecasting with on Polymarket to come over and play together).
Also, weather forecasting is something that can be traded every day and every hour—its generated traffic and trading volume really can’t be ignored.
Cities with maximum temperature prediction are open—Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Taipei, etc. are all playable. For someone like me who already scores on Predict, this adds another tradable lane.
But compared with Polymarket’s weather market, the gap is still pretty clear. In my personal view, it mainly comes down to these areas below👇
1️⃣ Liquidity is worse by a notch
👉On Predict: for 7/23, the intraday trading volume for Hong Kong and Shanghai is around the 12,000 U range; and many 7/24 markets are still sitting at $0 Vol.
👉On Polymarket: the Hong Kong local market for 7/24 already has over 60,000 U in volume; for 7/23 Hong Kong it’s even in the 200,000+ U range. London and Seoul also reach 50–60k U in a day.
When guessing the same temperatures, one side is still in cold start, while the other side can already trade in a serious way and enter/exit normally.
2️⃣ Fewer cities and fewer contract types
👉On Predict there are currently about ten-odd cities, mainly focusing on maximum temperature.
👉On Polymarket’s weather page, coverage is denser: Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Madrid, and more—plus markets for minimum temperature too.
Once the coverage opens up, the number of mispricings and information gaps you can exploit also increases.
3️⃣ Order book depth is different
On Predict, many temperature tiers are still empty or don’t have complete quotes. On Polymarket, for popular cities, each tier has volume—your slippage experience is completely in a different world.
In short-cycle markets like weather, without depth it’s hard to get filled at model prices; it easily turns into a “self-entertainment” market.
Some suggestions for the Predict team (personal opinion) 🔥🔥🔥
1. Liquidity is the biggest problem—nail it down first; everything else comes second.
2. Make the popular cities really thorough first: prioritize stacking depth for Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, New York, and London. Don’t rush to roll out a bunch of empty markets with 0 Vol.
3. During the cold-start period, incentivize market makers / use points weighting to move intraday volume from a few thousand U to stable five figures. Once the book thickens, there naturally will be people trading both ways.
4. Then gradually improve: expand cities, add maximum/minimum temperature, and write the settlement source links into the rules page—so users can verify at a glance.
Hope dingalingts yuexiaoyu TC8880 sees this—I really want to play weather forecasting on Predict 😩
If liquidity and depth can be made to match Polymarket, then I believe more people will be willing to come play weather forecasting on Predict (and then I’ll go call the brothers I’ve been playing weather forecasting with on Polymarket to come over and play together).
Also, weather forecasting is something that can be traded every day and every hour—its generated traffic and trading volume really can’t be ignored.