Wouhs’ hawkish remarks boost rate-hike expectations; spot gold falls more than $120 in a day
BlockBeats report, August 29: After Federal Reserve Chair Wouhs delivered remarks on suppressing inflation pressures, market bets on Fed rate hikes surged significantly. The U.S. dollar strengthened accordingly, and prices of gold and other precious metals came under heavy pressure and fell sharply. As of the time of publication, spot gold was down 2.6% for the day, with a drop exceeding $120, trading at $4,480 per ounce. Earlier in the session, it briefly touched a one-week low of $4,464. Independent analyst Tai Wong pointed out: “Chairman Wouhs clearly stated that inflation has not seen any material slowdown, and emphasized that the U.S. Federal Reserve still has ‘work to do.’ This remark triggered a sharp sell-off in the gold market. Although this may still be a communications strategy of ‘loud thunder, little rain,’ it was enough to leave the market in a stalemate in which the odds of a rate hike versus a pause at the September meeting are about evenly split.” Wouhs’ remarks are his most public acknowledgment so far that additional rate hikes may be needed to ease price pressures. In his speech, he noted that if policymakers cannot be certain that core inflation is steadily returning to the 2% target, the Fed “still has work to do.”
BlockBeats message, on August 29, Federal Reserve Goolsbee said that obviously inflation caused by overheated demand is difficult to resolve. The duration of inflation has exceeded expectations. The key focus must still be to determine whether inflation is only temporary. No strong view on the number of FOMC meetings.
BlockBeats news. On August 29, according to Bitget market data, spot silver continues its downtrend. The intraday decline has widened to 4%, and it is currently trading at $66.49 per ounce.
BlockBeats message, on August 29, according to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000, and is currently at $77,119. The 24-hour decline is 4.22%.
Vaush’s latest speech: The Times We Are In (Full text attached)
Original text compiled: Caixin At 10:00 p.m. Beijing time on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Vaush made an appearance at the Jackson Hole annual meeting and delivered a speech titled (The Times We Are In) (In Our Time). Overall, in this Jackson Hole speech, Vaush sent a fairly clear cautious-but-hawkish signal. He believes that the U.S. economy and labor market still show resilience, and that the current financial environment is hard to characterize as obviously restrictive. Meanwhile, inflation remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target, so price pressures should continue to be the top focus of monetary policy.
BlockBeats messages, on August 29, according to Bitget market data, spot gold plunged by $100 intraday, falling below $4,500 per ounce and hitting a new low since August 20, down 2.26% intraday.
Spot silver is down 2.3% intraday, currently trading at $67.67 per ounce.
BlockBeats message: On August 29, according to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly fell below $78,000, and is now trading at $78,099. The 24-hour decline is 2.86%.
BlockBeats message: On August 29, crypto trading app Fomo co-founder Se Yong Park announced that Fomo has completed its first round of funding, with participation from 140 angel investors. At present, the company’s cap table already includes more than 200 angel investors.
Musk may donate to the Republicans “at least $100 million”; the U.S. House speaker plans to meet with him
BlockBeats news, August 28, according to Politico. Four people familiar with the matter said that U.S. House Speaker John Johnson plans to meet with Republican super donor Elon Musk on Friday in Texas. The meeting comes as Johnson campaigns for Republican candidates across Texas ahead of the midterm elections. This is also the latest sign that Republican leaders want Musk to make large contributions to help the GOP maintain control of Congress. An insider says that Elon Musk’s schedule is uncertain and the meeting could be adjusted at the last minute. According to reports, the tech billionaire is considering using his super PAC, “American Political Action Committee” (Americapac), to donate at least $100 million to the Republican Party for this year’s midterm elections, but where the money ultimately will go is still unclear.
BlockBeats message, on August 28, the USD/JPY exchange rate continues to rise, reaching the 160 level to the upside. It has been only about a month since the last joint intervention by the United States and Japan.
BlockBeats news, on August 28, Eugene Epstein, Head of Trading and Structured Products at Moneycorp in Stanford, Connecticut, commented on remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Powell, saying: “We’ll see what effect this has on next month’s next meeting. But I feel like I’m already hearing this for the fourth time, maybe even the fifth, watching him give the same speech. Because, frankly, what he is saying is that they will put the focus on inflation. But he isn’t providing forward guidance, and inflation is not moving in the direction they want.”
BlockBeats message, August 28. ECB Governing Council member Dorenz said that the inflation situation has not been resolved yet, and the rationale for a rate hike in September is already sufficient. (Jin10)
BlockBeats message, August 28, according to monitoring by Yu Jin, during a speech by Wo Shi, “Hyperliquid’s largest long faction” took advantage of the dips to add to long positions by 1,000 BTC (about $79 million). This today they also added to their ETH long position by 28,000 ETH. The average opening price for the BTC long is $78,780, and the average opening price for the ETH long is $2,490.
BlockBeats message: On August 28, according to Lookonchain monitoring, Irish drug dealer Clifton Collins—after previously losing the private keys to 6,000 BTC—has started transferring funds again about a month later. A little over 51 minutes ago, 500 BTC (about $39.56 million) was transferred to Coinbase Prime.
Clifton Collins purchased about 6,000 BTC between 2011 and 2012 at an average price of around $5 per coin, and printed the private keys on paper to hide them. After he was arrested for drug-related charges, authorities seized his assets but were unable to recover the private keys.
BlockBeats messages, August 28: Inflation Insights analyst Omar Sherif said, “What Fed Chair Wosch has given the market is what it wanted—namely, a more detailed explanation of his views on the current economic data, especially the inflation data. Of course, he did not reveal any future policy actions that may be taken. In this sense, it seems to be a win-win situation for both Wosch and the market.”
Summary of Wosch’s remarks: Potential inflation must be clearly and quickly back to 2%, with a primary focus on prices
BlockBeats message: On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wosch delivered his first Jackson Hole speech, stating that it is necessary to be certain that underlying inflation is moving toward the target; otherwise, there is still work to be done. It is difficult to describe financial conditions as restrictive. Inflation data has not shown a trend of significant improvement; the Fed’s primary focus should be on prices. The role of forward guidance should be limited. The likelihood that the economy will achieve much higher growth is increasing. Market participants should focus on the real information in the economy. Do not formulate forward-looking policies based on outdated or inaccurate data.
BlockBeats message, August 28: In a speech that was more hawkish than many market participants had expected, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Worsh cited a series of indicators pointing to a healthy economy, including higher corporate profits, stable consumer spending, and tightening credit spreads.
Worsh said, “In my view, the credit and lending markets show almost no signs that monetary policy is taking on a restrictive effect. Overall, I find it difficult to characterize the current overall financial conditions as having a restrictive impact.”
These remarks boosted Wall Street’s bets on further Fed rate hikes.
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