The possibility of a rate cut has been ruled out, and the likelihood of a rate hike in June has risen to 70%. 😱😱
The combination of a strong core PCE, durable goods, personal spending numbers and late Friday expectations of an imminent debt ceiling deal took US yields to weekly highs and USDJPY north of 140. Rate cuts have been rapidly priced out with June hiking odds now back up to 70%, versus just 10-15% earlier in the month. Furthermore, the Treasury will immediately look to replenish its cash balance as soon as any debt deal is reached, and could potentially withdraw up to ~US$400bln in liquidity (via t-bill issuance) swiftly from the system.
