Where is the recession？🌚🌚

US retail sales came in strong at 0.4% MoM, following previous declines of -0.7% over March and February. Core retail sales (ex autos and gas) came in at 0.6% MoM vs 0.2% expected, with the control group also rebounding to 0.7% vs 0.4% expected. Nominal retail sales rose largely due to price increases, though they do show that the consumer remains resilient in the face of higher inflation, and increases the likelihood of a strong April PCE print on May 26th.

NAHB Housing Market index also climbed to a 10-month high in April. Strong demand paired with low housing inventory is pushing activity towards new construction, with signs that rents are beginning to rise as well. New housing construction permits is being released today with an expectation of >6% MoM.