fred

The median probability of a recession occurring in the U.S. in the current month—July has already been pushed down to 0.1%. On August 15, the St. Louis Fed added the two series for Furno and Giannone to FRED. The definition is the monthly 50th percentile. The U.S. series runs from 1980 to July 2026, scaled from 0 to 100, where the closer to 100, the more it resembles a recession that is currently underway.

For the euro area, the same methodology is plotted on a separate series starting in 1985; in July it is 2.6%. Dashboard update on August 3: the latest U.S. value is 0.1%, and the euro area is 2.6%. The table on FRED dated August 10 shows 0.0463 and 2.6157, which round to these two numbers. These are the medians of the probability of recession occurring in the current month.

#美国经济 #欧元区 #FRED

💸Coinbase implements AI instead of managers

Coinbase has replaced part of its management functions with AI agents that are already participating in workflows and assisting with tasks and strategy.#coinbase #AI #balaji #Fred $AI $BTC