狂飙在币圈
65 Posts
狂飙在币圈
8年数字资产交易经验，擅长趋势跟踪与波段操作。严格止损，轻仓顺势，追求稳定复利，拒绝赌博式交易
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USD1 Holder
Frequent Trader
8.6 Years
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Bitcoin has surged to 71,000—has the bull market really arrived? Don’t jump to conclusions yet; first, understand the macro logic behind it.
1️⃣ Not rate cuts—it's “Treasury bond rescue”: The U.S. Treasury has doubled the scale of long-bond repurchases. The Nasdaq is numb, but gold and BTC have still taken off in place. This suggests the market isn’t really pricing in rate cuts—it’s pricing in “the risk of a Treasury collapse,” with capital aggressively hedging against currency depreciation.
2️⃣ The only standard to end a bear market: In terms of pattern, 2026 looks very much like 2022; we’re currently in the third consolidation phase. Don’t get overly superstitious about complicated indicators when judging the bottom—just fixate on the 200-day moving average (currently around $68.9k).
3️⃣ Trading strategy: If it holds effectively above $68.9k, confirm the bear market is over and ride the trend. If it gets rejected and pulls back, watch out for the “final sell-off.” For those in cash or with light positions, the best strategy right now is to start DCA (dollar-cost averaging) and build positions in batches to manage volatility.
#比特币 #宏观经济 #美债 #加密货币
1️⃣ Not rate cuts—it's “Treasury bond rescue”: The U.S. Treasury has doubled the scale of long-bond repurchases. The Nasdaq is numb, but gold and BTC have still taken off in place. This suggests the market isn’t really pricing in rate cuts—it’s pricing in “the risk of a Treasury collapse,” with capital aggressively hedging against currency depreciation.
2️⃣ The only standard to end a bear market: In terms of pattern, 2026 looks very much like 2022; we’re currently in the third consolidation phase. Don’t get overly superstitious about complicated indicators when judging the bottom—just fixate on the 200-day moving average (currently around $68.9k).
3️⃣ Trading strategy: If it holds effectively above $68.9k, confirm the bear market is over and ride the trend. If it gets rejected and pulls back, watch out for the “final sell-off.” For those in cash or with light positions, the best strategy right now is to start DCA (dollar-cost averaging) and build positions in batches to manage volatility.
#比特币 #宏观经济 #美债 #加密货币
The profit from this deal is just a fraction—enough for me to lose it all for the rest of my life.😭
In the first ten days, I told everyone not to short the market—the risk is too high. It really just kept rising, one after another.
狂飙在币圈
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$BTW
Spent about a month or two pacing around at the bottom, after it thoroughly washed out the shorts and longs, it finally broke to a new high—but by no means should you short it. I think it’s very possible to reach $1. I’ve watched so many “meme” coins, and somehow, deep down, I have this feeling. Its funding rate has been positive the whole time—the big show hasn’t really started yet!
Spent about a month or two pacing around at the bottom, after it thoroughly washed out the shorts and longs, it finally broke to a new high—but by no means should you short it. I think it’s very possible to reach $1. I’ve watched so many “meme” coins, and somehow, deep down, I have this feeling. Its funding rate has been positive the whole time—the big show hasn’t really started yet!
$BTW
Spent about a month or two pacing around at the bottom, after it thoroughly washed out the shorts and longs, it finally broke to a new high—but by no means should you short it. I think it’s very possible to reach $1. I’ve watched so many “meme” coins, and somehow, deep down, I have this feeling. Its funding rate has been positive the whole time—the big show hasn’t really started yet!
Spent about a month or two pacing around at the bottom, after it thoroughly washed out the shorts and longs, it finally broke to a new high—but by no means should you short it. I think it’s very possible to reach $1. I’ve watched so many “meme” coins, and somehow, deep down, I have this feeling. Its funding rate has been positive the whole time—the big show hasn’t really started yet!
Don't forget what they did to $coai, they raised it from $0.39 to $61
They can easily push $rave up to $20... they have unlimited funds to pump it up... even if you are at a loss, it is better to short
You will be liquidated... remember my words
They can easily push $rave up to $20... they have unlimited funds to pump it up... even if you are at a loss, it is better to short
You will be liquidated... remember my words
#STO can only be played with a little, short selling must occur during a pin bar market to do short selling, everyone remember this 😯
The conclusion is that this chart is fake, it's just fooling idiots!
When shorting perpetual contracts (USDT-based linear contracts), the maximum theoretical profit when the price drops to 0 is your nominal value at opening, which is the part of the USDT value you 'sold' at that time. No matter how much the price drops, it can never exceed this upper limit, which in the chart is 460,000u. There's a saying that goes: there is no upper limit to excess, but there is a lower limit to shorting!
When shorting perpetual contracts (USDT-based linear contracts), the maximum theoretical profit when the price drops to 0 is your nominal value at opening, which is the part of the USDT value you 'sold' at that time. No matter how much the price drops, it can never exceed this upper limit, which in the chart is 460,000u. There's a saying that goes: there is no upper limit to excess, but there is a lower limit to shorting!
If it reaches 160, you can earn 5 million u, and the funding rate is estimated to be quite high.
负债十亿的民工
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Waiting for Brother Silver to double, rising to 160.
Sadly, some people mistake luck for strength😀😀
Quoted content has been removed
How much is in your account? I'll report it, and then we'll divide it further.
合约模拟完胜再开实单
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#币安严厉打击alpha科技工作室
Just this morning, it was forwarded in the group that all 5 accounts were banned. They are quite confident that the money hasn't been transferred and has all been frozen, and cannot be withdrawn.
Haha, that's great! In my opinion, Anzi shouldn't have taken the initiative to clarify; it would have been better to freeze it for a while and then announce the strategy. 😂😂
A portion of the funds has definitely been withdrawn.
Just this morning, it was forwarded in the group that all 5 accounts were banned. They are quite confident that the money hasn't been transferred and has all been frozen, and cannot be withdrawn.
Haha, that's great! In my opinion, Anzi shouldn't have taken the initiative to clarify; it would have been better to freeze it for a while and then announce the strategy. 😂😂
A portion of the funds has definitely been withdrawn.
All have risen; none have fallen;
The waterfall has all run away;
The new narrative has all boarded early;
Perfect:
The waterfall has all run away;
The new narrative has all boarded early;
Perfect:
Too many points, I can't use them at all.
September 17, 9.4 major crash, followed by a bull market for the next 3 months
Year 20, 312 major crash, followed by a bull market for the next year
Year 22, 519 bull market for the next 3 months
In November 22, FTX collapsed, the bear market ended, followed by a bull market until today
On October 11, Year 25, altcoins major crash......
Don't come for a second visit, or you'll be washed out again
Year 20, 312 major crash, followed by a bull market for the next year
Year 22, 519 bull market for the next 3 months
In November 22, FTX collapsed, the bear market ended, followed by a bull market until today
On October 11, Year 25, altcoins major crash......
Don't come for a second visit, or you'll be washed out again
A few days ago, it was said that Ethereum would definitely break 4000, and that it was a false breakout, which has been verified.
In a few weeks, Ethereum will break 50000, and it will be a real breakout. Recently, Ethereum will have a slight pullback, which can be a good opportunity to buy in. As long as Ethereum stabilizes above 5000, large-cap altcoins will enter a major uptrend, and among the top 10 large-cap altcoins, only Dogecoin and Cardano have not reached new highs, and they are still at very low positions. Now there is a pullback in market value, which can be taken as an opportunity to buy!
In a few weeks, Ethereum will break 50000, and it will be a real breakout. Recently, Ethereum will have a slight pullback, which can be a good opportunity to buy in. As long as Ethereum stabilizes above 5000, large-cap altcoins will enter a major uptrend, and among the top 10 large-cap altcoins, only Dogecoin and Cardano have not reached new highs, and they are still at very low positions. Now there is a pullback in market value, which can be taken as an opportunity to buy!
$JUP The pledger will have a good return in October 💸
🟢 Third quarter active staking rewards
▫️ 50 million USD of JUP for stakers
▫️ We will receive about 8% of staked JUP
🟢 The $MET airdrop will start on October 23
▫️ 2% allocated to $JUP stakers who have never canceled their stake
▫️ 1% for all participants
Invest $JUP and stay consistent for rewards‼️
🟢 Third quarter active staking rewards
▫️ 50 million USD of JUP for stakers
▫️ We will receive about 8% of staked JUP
🟢 The $MET airdrop will start on October 23
▫️ 2% allocated to $JUP stakers who have never canceled their stake
▫️ 1% for all participants
Invest $JUP and stay consistent for rewards‼️
In the last bull market
Gold has always been ahead of Bitcoin in reaching its peak, with gold hitting its historical high on August 7, 2020 (2075), while Bitcoin only reached its peak on April 14, 2021 (64864), leading by 250 days.
In this bull market
Gold's previous high occurred on April 22, 2025, and then Bitcoin bottomed out on April 9, reaching a high of 124500 on August 14, 2025, undergoing a consolidation adjustment. Gold led Bitcoin by 114 days to reach its peak first. If gold's peak in this wave is on October 1, 2025 (3895), then, following this reasoning, Bitcoin is expected to reach the highest position in this bull market on January 23, 2026, with an estimate of 155000
(If 3895 is not the peak for gold in this wave, then Bitcoin's next peak will be delayed)
Gold has always been ahead of Bitcoin in reaching its peak, with gold hitting its historical high on August 7, 2020 (2075), while Bitcoin only reached its peak on April 14, 2021 (64864), leading by 250 days.
In this bull market
Gold's previous high occurred on April 22, 2025, and then Bitcoin bottomed out on April 9, reaching a high of 124500 on August 14, 2025, undergoing a consolidation adjustment. Gold led Bitcoin by 114 days to reach its peak first. If gold's peak in this wave is on October 1, 2025 (3895), then, following this reasoning, Bitcoin is expected to reach the highest position in this bull market on January 23, 2026, with an estimate of 155000
(If 3895 is not the peak for gold in this wave, then Bitcoin's next peak will be delayed)
Comparison of the impact of two shutdowns on Bitcoin in history
October 2013
Duration: 16 days
Price fluctuation: ~$132
+14% (to ~$151)
Background: Continued to rise after the shutdown, reaching ~$1,100 (+700%) by the end of the year.
In the early stages of the Bitcoin bull market, demand was strong; the shutdown was seen as a catalyst for distrust in the dollar, driving inflows into alternative assets.
Date: December 2018 - January 2019
Duration: 35 days (the longest in history)
Price fluctuation: ~$3,802
-6% (to ~$3,575); some data suggests -10%
Background: Crypto bear market, liquidity tightening amplified negative effects; delays in federal workers' salaries increased risk aversion.
Short-term fluctuations: Shutdowns usually trigger price swings of 5%-15%. In 2013, it was positive (+14%), as Bitcoin was at the end of a bull market; in 2018, it was negative (-6% to -10%), compounded by macro pressures from the crypto winter.
Long-term positive: Historical data shows that Bitcoin averages an increase of over 20% in the 3-6 months following a shutdown.
Reasons include: strengthening Bitcoin's decentralization advantages (“Government shuts down, BTC never shuts down”), and institutional investors view it as a hedge against fiscal chaos. During the “fake shutdown” panic periods of 2021 and 2023, Bitcoin also rose from $27K to $34K.
Now, the U.S. government is facing a shutdown, and Bitcoin's price around $114K has dropped 3%-5% due to panic. I believe the current market resembles 2013 (growing demand, strong Q4 seasonality) rather than the 2018 bear market, which could lead to a short-term dip to $100K-$108K, but a rebound in the medium to long term.
Additional risk: Regulatory bills (such as the crypto market structure bill) may be delayed.
Summary: U.S. government shutdown, short-term volatility, can buy on dips; government shuts down, BTC never shuts down, the last main wave catalyst for Bitcoin may be the U.S. government shutdown!
October 2013
Duration: 16 days
Price fluctuation: ~$132
+14% (to ~$151)
Background: Continued to rise after the shutdown, reaching ~$1,100 (+700%) by the end of the year.
In the early stages of the Bitcoin bull market, demand was strong; the shutdown was seen as a catalyst for distrust in the dollar, driving inflows into alternative assets.
Date: December 2018 - January 2019
Duration: 35 days (the longest in history)
Price fluctuation: ~$3,802
-6% (to ~$3,575); some data suggests -10%
Background: Crypto bear market, liquidity tightening amplified negative effects; delays in federal workers' salaries increased risk aversion.
Short-term fluctuations: Shutdowns usually trigger price swings of 5%-15%. In 2013, it was positive (+14%), as Bitcoin was at the end of a bull market; in 2018, it was negative (-6% to -10%), compounded by macro pressures from the crypto winter.
Long-term positive: Historical data shows that Bitcoin averages an increase of over 20% in the 3-6 months following a shutdown.
Reasons include: strengthening Bitcoin's decentralization advantages (“Government shuts down, BTC never shuts down”), and institutional investors view it as a hedge against fiscal chaos. During the “fake shutdown” panic periods of 2021 and 2023, Bitcoin also rose from $27K to $34K.
Now, the U.S. government is facing a shutdown, and Bitcoin's price around $114K has dropped 3%-5% due to panic. I believe the current market resembles 2013 (growing demand, strong Q4 seasonality) rather than the 2018 bear market, which could lead to a short-term dip to $100K-$108K, but a rebound in the medium to long term.
Additional risk: Regulatory bills (such as the crypto market structure bill) may be delayed.
Summary: U.S. government shutdown, short-term volatility, can buy on dips; government shuts down, BTC never shuts down, the last main wave catalyst for Bitcoin may be the U.S. government shutdown!
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