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🚀 BTC Market Helper Group

Focused on real-time Bitcoin updates, market analysis, and trading ideas sharing!

From time to time, there are technical discussions, opportunity shares, and risk alerts here. Welcome to communicate rationally and learn from each other.

Permanent 20% off trading fees. Invitation code DFUIJVHH—saving enough in a year to cover a car

Wishing everyone smooth trading and continuous wealth ~
$BTC

$NEAR Every time either it doesn’t go up at all, or it rockets—this time it’s already up more than threefold.

I think NEAR’s big surge this time mainly comes from these three reasons:

① Real volume in Intents: it crosses 30+ chains for exchanges, with cumulative volume around 30 billion, and nearly 1 billion in a single week. The privacy channel is still gobbling up large ZEC transfer “trades.”

② NEAR@3.33 turns the airdrop into a limit-up condition: snapshots are taken only after a confidential account’s TVL crosses the threshold. Only when the three-day moving average climbs above 3.33 can it be converted into circulating tokens. The money is used to unlock rewards—both fueling the product and propping the price.

③ With near.com’s default privacy contracts, settlement connects to Hyperliquid; then it stacks on top Ondo tokenized U.S. stocks and AI inference—one narrative assembled in one go.

It’s so steep because incentives compress the timeline.

Right now, the key resistance level is $5. As long as it holds above $5, the upside opens up—but you also have to watch Bitcoin’s mood.
#Near

From the chart, I feel that $ASTER is like a little student quietly sitting there, waiting, not knowing where to start—just a feeling of being at a loss.

This time Binance listed HYPE on the spot market, which is essentially the leader making up the global largest spot on-ramp. Pay attention: attention and capital first flow into HYPE, and the next Hyperliquid premium on the BNB Chain will get squeezed a bit.

That way, you can see that market pricing power is becoming more concentrated in the leader.

If we look purely from a technical perspective, ASTER now seems like it really could be an opportunity to set up a position—step by step moving upward, and the accumulation should have pretty much been done.

Brothers, dare we take a shot together? Maybe it’s “one bicycle turns into a motorcycle.” $HYPE

Because this time ONDO’s expansion made me research the RWA sector tokens again, and I think there’s one token worth our attention—it’s $CFG

Because CFG provides the foundational infrastructure for institutions to put funds, credit, and structured products on-chain. Compared with an ONDO brand in terms of products, its advantage is more focused on the issuance layer + DeFi distribution.

CFG’s advantage is institutional funds on-chain + using it in DeFi as collateral—this entire issuance infrastructure.

From a technical perspective, I think this is a good entry point at the weekly chart level. Currently, the weekly chart has formed a triple bottom. Last time, the triple bottom led to a 3.8x rally. From the weekly MACD, it is also gradually approaching the zero line, which suggests a turning point is near. On the daily chart level, it has started to consolidate and move upward. However, this coin’s volatility is relatively high, making it more suitable for spot trading.

Support: 0.12–0.1
Resistance: 0.185–0.31

$PONS can do more, the neckline position is 0.636
Target level: 0.67-0.72
On the 4-hour chart, a heavy double bottom forms; the bottom gradually rises, and the price breaks the neckline level within one hour

#Ondo在创始人去世后寻求出售

ONDO This rally is mainly because transforming BlackRock’s model portfolio into an on-chain composite token, turning the RWA narrative from “buying a U.S. Treasury bond” into on-chain holding of a basket of stocks/bonds/Bitcoin ETF combinations. Funds first flow into the most liquid sector leaders, so the RWA sector followed higher.

RWA is undoubtedly one of the big future market opportunities. In terms of today’s RWA track, besides ONDO, I also like these tokens:

① LINK
In the RWA space, it mainly plays the role of an oracle, reserve proof, and CCIP cross-chain. Because almost all tokenized Treasuries/fund offerings need to be priced and cross-chained, the infrastructure has the greatest elasticity.

② CFG
It mainly does on-chain private credit and real receivables in the RWA ecosystem.
Compared with Treasury yield, it’s higher, and it depends more on asset quality and defaults.

③ SYPUR
It mainly provides RWA institutional lending and on-chain asset management.

④ SKY
RWA is widely used in stablecoin collateral. Treasuries are used as collateral assets, and the protocol’s revenue is linked to SKY’s price
$ONDO
$LINK
$CFG

I’ve been looking at Weir Technology these past couple of days. I think its business is pretty impressive. Its core business is to help cloud providers and AI clusters connect and run data and compute power.

It has positioned itself for optical interconnects in AI hyperscale clusters (800G/1.6T DSPs, switches) and customized ASICs/XPUs. And as it benefits from ongoing capacity expansions in the ecosystems of AWS, Microsoft, Google, and NVIDIA, its revenue guidance has been raised to about $12.0 billion for FY27 and about $18.0 billion for FY28.

Also, its business returns are very stable. Data-related revenue already accounts for 80% of the total. For stocks like this, people can easily forget about them because they’ve been steadily doing their work and do very little marketing. The real surge usually happens only when it reaches its peak. So right now, laying in a position could be an opportunity.

The next target level is 310.

$MRVL

$MRVLB

#Bitget遭黑客攻击损失3.52亿美元

This is what industry helping each other is really about—when there are problems, we move forward together$BNB

$PONS Two and a half months to become #1 on monthly fees

In the last 30 days: Fees are about $147 million; protocol revenue about $25.5 million. Cumulative protocol revenue is only $32 million, with about 30% burned. The fee split is 1%: 70% goes to creators, 30% to the protocol. Of the protocol’s portion, about 80% is used to buy back and burn

The comparison is very clear: Fees—Pons beats pump.fun (about 3x). Retention and cumulative totals still favor pump.fun (30-day protocol revenue about $33 million; cumulative in the 1.1B+ range). Pons wins on the breakout; pump wins on compounding.

Near-term market outlook:
Short-term looks more like a range-bound pulse—there shouldn’t be another week-long 5x-style pricing. Buybacks are a real bid, but they can’t outbid the heat as attention fades. Mid-term depends on whether, after subsidies end, monthly protocol revenue can stay above tens of millions of dollars. If it can’t hold, that means this is the climax of a high-turnover fee-extraction cycle

$BNB
#Bitget遭黑客攻击损失3.52亿美元

Official figure: $351.6 million (on-chain replay is about $351–357 million). The main components are roughly 103 million XRP and about 31,900 ETH. Withdrawals are paused, but deposits and trading are still enabled. CEO: The cold wallet is still there; the protection fund >$464 million can fully cover it. The attack looks more like a forged backend authorization rather than the cold wallet private keys being drained. An initial suspicion points to a North Korean group.

My take: this is a liquidity incident, not a solvency incident like FTX. $352 million hits the hot layer, and the $464 million fund covers it—so it can clear on the books. The market is also pricing it case-by-case—BGB only fell about 3%–5%.

The real “pass/fail” test is the net outflow over the 48 hours after withdrawals are resumed. If the hole isn’t patched, then reopening means opening another door.

#Bitget #黑客

Trump’s annual returns have already exceeded 30%, directly surpassing Buffett

This is his portfolio reallocation in July:

Sold:
Microsoft, Amazon each $5M–$25M
Oracle $1M–$5M
Northrop Grumman $0.25M–$0.50M

Bought:
NVIDIA $0.5M–$1M
Intuit / Marvell / Salesforce each $1M–$5M

$MRVL
$NVDAB
$GOOGL.US

#CFTC更新受监管机构代币化资产指引

Regulators may put client funds into tokenized versions of assets that are already allowed—an on-chain ledger can also serve as the regulatory record. The requirement is strict: rights must be equivalent to the traditional form, liquidity/concentration/maturity must meet the thresholds, and it must be held in an approved custodian.

Don’t pretend you didn’t notice what’s not included: on the list of cleared swaps variation margin, BTC/ETH/stablecoins still don’t count as eligible collateral. What you can use is a tokenized wrapper of “Treasury bonds” and “government money market funds,” not arbitrary on-chain coins.

Background: The CLARITY Act was just stalled in the Senate; tokenized RWA is about $46 billion (funds make up about three quarters). In the legislative vacuum, the staff FAQ effectively serves as the rulebook.

My take: This is a pipeline, not an open floodgate. On the surface it conforms to substance—making it convenient for clearinghouses to transfer collateral and for FCM cash management. Read it as “regulatory permissions for opening accounts for legit assets,” not as “the regulator allowing altcoins.” The FAQ can be withdrawn, and its weight in court is lower than formal rules. High interest rates this week make the need for eligible T+0 collateral more urgent—not for narratives.
$BTC
$ETH

#CFTC #RWA #代币化

$ETH market analysis

Ethereum, like Bitcoin, is about to face a breakout/breakdown. For the intraday, we need to watch whether the price can hold steady at the 2700 level. If it can’t hold, then this level would become a continuation of a downward trend.

Support below: 2570-2485

9.25 $BTC market analysis

Right now whether it’s BTC, or LTC, or all the altcoins, they are all facing a turning-point node.

Next, within the day, you should pay attention to whether the price can hold steady at the 85300 level. If it cannot, then we will see range-bound movement between 85300 and 83500. That level will be a relay-drop situation, and the daily MACD divergence will form, which will then expand downward.

$PONS I’m back again to recommend PONS to everyone. This token’s fee buyback has always been very strong—it’s already surpassed UNI.

It’s been a long time since I used Fibonacci. Today I drew it and it turned out pretty accurate—please refer to the image below 👇

From a technical perspective, it’s currently being supported by the 0.6 level. It has been trading in a wide range around 0.5–0.73. As the pullback continues, the selling pressure is getting smaller and smaller, and the bottom is gradually moving upward.

My personal view is that at this position there will be another secondary test of the high on a four-hour timeframe. The resistance area will be in the 0.8–0.93 range.

#美债10年期收益率创19年新高

Intraday is up by about 5.14%, and the current price is around 5.12%—not seen since July 2007. On Wednesday alone it jumped 13–15 basis points, one of the biggest single-day moves since the tariff shock in April last year.

Break it down:
• The 2-year is around 4.9% → the Fed path has been rewritten, with nearly 70% pricing for a rate hike in October
• The 10-year and 30-year rise together → fiscal supply + term premium are also being repriced higher
• Most of the increase is real yields, not a runaway break-even inflation
• PMI is running hot, oil prices are back to 100, and the 5-year auction is on the weak side—four things stacking up in one day

At 5.1% is a psychological level, not 15% like in 1981. But it’s already painful enough for mortgage rates and discounted valuations. The next stop to watch is 5.25%–5.50%.

Oil prices and CPI will determine whether this is the new normal range—or an overshoot.

$BTC

Mid-Autumn Festival is coming tomorrow! Does anyone have any Mid-Autumn-themed MEME “tug dog” picks you can go all-in on? According to past historical market trends, whenever these kinds of holidays come around, some related tug dogs always pop up. If you have any, let me know in the comments—I'm going to full send; I put in $10,000 and made money to send everyone红包 (red packets).

By the way, after Mid-Autumn comes National Day. Perfect—after Mid-Autumn tug dog profits, we can go chase National Day-themed tug dogs.

If you’ve got any, comment in the section—I’ll go support you👇🐂🧐

$BTC
$ETH

#美联储10月加息概率升至69.7%

CME FedWatch: 69.7% odds of a 25bp hike in October, with 30.3% priced in for staying on hold. Current rate: 3.75%–4.00%. Next meeting 10/27–28

Even tougher is December—holding steady is left at just 6.5%, with a cumulative +50bp to 4.25%–4.50% priced at 54.8%. The market is already treating two consecutive hikes within the year as the baseline

Just a week ago, after the most recent hike, it was only 40%. Stronger-than-expected PMI + hawkish comments from officials like Bullard + the 10-year yield once reaching 5.135%—all pushed expectations higher

This is reversible market pricing. If nonfarm payrolls, CPI, or oil prices move even a bit, the 70% can easily fall back to 50%

$BTC
$ETH