大户笔记

How to make steady profits without losing money in the currency circle

I have been working hard in the currency circle for almost 5 years, during which I have made profits and losses. I have done everything from ico to Dogecoin and mining, and have gone through three rounds of bulls and bears. Summarizing my countless operations, in the end, there is only one way to make money steadily. That is simple and crude:
Buy in the bear market, sell in the bull market, and make sure you make a profit without losing money.

Bull markets generally last for 6 months to 1 year, and bear markets generally last for 1 to 2 years. A bull-bear cycle lasts for 3 to 4 years. Seize the opportunity and earn at least 50%+ returns in every bull market, which is enough to outperform the returns of all types of financial management, stocks, and funds. Because this 50%+ income can definitely be earned, there is no suspense.

1. Only deploy in bear markets
You must be patient and try your best to buy at the bottom of a bear market (although it is impossible to buy at the bottom of a real bear market). The conditions for judging the bottom of a bear market are simply that no one pays attention to Bitcoin anymore. When the currency circle is lifeless, you can buy multiple times intermittently. , this period may last for 1 year or even longer.

2. Mainstream coins
BTC and ETH will always be the kings of the currency circle, and buying in a bear market is absolutely correct. Although it cannot rise exponentially, if you buy in the bear market and hold until you sell in the bull market, an increase of more than 50% will definitely occur. The first choice for big funds.
Exchange platform currency: such as BNB
Relatively strong basic chains: such as SOL, AVAX
Good infrastructure coins: such as MATIC
Strong consensus coins: such as doge, SHIB RATS PEPE

You can only be heavily stocked in mainstream currencies, and never be heavily stocked in altcoins. The logic of altcoins is to cut leeks, and many types of altcoins will be born in every bull market. The altcoins that are soaring in this bull market may become completely silent in the next bull market. Overshadowed by the high shine of new altcoins. Without inside channels and information, it is almost impossible to bet on an altcoin and buy it before it explodes. Usually, you only learn about the existence of a certain altcoin after seeing its skyrocketing price. At this time, it is already too late to follow up. Maybe if you are lucky, the currency will continue to rise, but there is a high probability that it will fluctuate and fall. Altcoins fluctuate too much, and ordinary people cannot hold on to them regardless of whether they rise or fall. It is often a small profit and a big loss. In the end, it's all a loss.

3. Sell in the middle of the bull market and do no more operations later.
In the early stages of the bull market, BTC will slowly rise, outperforming others, and drive ETH to rise.At this time, some good mainstream coins followed suit, other coins rose slowly, a few altcoins surged wildly, and most altcoins had no movement.
In the middle of the bull market, BTC and ETH fluctuated and rose, mainstream currencies began to rise, and altcoins began to take off.
In the late bull market, BTC fluctuated and fell, ETH may continue to rise, mainstream currencies have surged one after another, and the high-profile altcoins of the second round of bull market have surged several times, even dozens or hundreds of times.
At the end of the bull market, BTC fell by thousands or even tens of thousands of points, and then recovered slightly. The first plunge recovered quickly, giving people the illusion that it was just an adjustment. After two or three such declines, the bull market is over. If you are caught at this time, please stop having any illusions and stop your losses in time. Otherwise, the principal will be dragged into the bottomless abyss.

4. Don’t bet on luck in a bull market
There are many opportunities in the bull market, especially in the middle and late stages of the bull market. Altcoins are flying around, and many altcoins have skyrocketed many times, which makes people jealous. People can impatiently follow up or choose some promising altcoins that have not exploded yet, and they can confidently wait for their surge. It's best not to have this kind of mentality. It's just gambling on luck. It's no different from gambling and has nothing to do with investing.
In every bull market, many altcoins are born. These altcoins have great gimmicks, their backgrounds look strong, and their rise is very strong. Please resist the temptation, you will only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. When BTC plummets and the bear market comes, these altcoins will be cut in half, cut off, or even close to zero.
If you really can't resist the temptation, you can only follow up and play with a very small amount of money. Even if you make a small profit, you must not go into heavy positions when your head is hot. Never, never, never. This is gambling, and you can't always be lucky in gambling. I am not afraid that you will make a hundred times, but I am afraid that if you lose only once, you will lose all your capital. Don't fantasize about investing heavily in an altcoin and getting rich suddenly. This is just like buying lottery tickets and fantasizing about winning the jackpot. It is a super-low probability event. It’s okay to treat a small amount of money as entertainment, but it’s totally wrong to treat it as an investment.

5. Be more patient and less impulsive.
After buying in the bear market, you need to wait patiently until you sell in the bull market. Do not operate on the rise or fall during the period. You need to be patient during the waiting period.
After selling in a bull market, wait patiently for the bull market to collapse into a bear market.This may take a year or two. Don't be impulsive and buy the bottom at the mountainside. Be patient and wait for the moment when you hit the bottom.
After making money by selling in the bull market, don’t be tempted to play altcoins impulsively. If you really want to take a gamble, you can only use up to 10% of your funds.

6. Principal is always the most important
If you accidentally get caught by random operations, the most important thing is to protect your principal as much as possible. When the currency market collapses, you are willing to cut your losses and stop losses in time to save most of your principal and the basic market. There is still hope for a comeback. Wait patiently for the currency market to fall into the abyss, and use the remaining principal to buy the bottom. Don't be trapped and die with the collapse of the currency circle. Many times you buy the trapped currency and sell it before the currency circle collapses, losing up to 50% of your principal. If you ignore it, let it fall, and hold on to the end. When the currency falls to the bottom along with the currency circle, there is almost no possibility of starting over with the remaining principal.

$BTC $BNB $NEAR #热门话题

I am a freshman and have 6000RMB in my hand. I want to join the cryptocurrency industry. Do you have any suggestions?

The pie is almost 60,000 US dollars again

From the time I entered the market to now, there have been at least tens of thousands of encrypted digital currencies. Especially in 2018-19, new projects came out every day. Basically, they broke the market immediately, and the primary market suffered losses, let alone the secondary market. Projects Fang basically ran away in a few months. The people who were originally called the next Bitcoin have long since disappeared. Instead, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been leading the younger brother forward.

The retail investors who really make money in the currency circle still rely on cycles to make money. Let’s not talk about discovering contract loopholes and quantitative arbitrage. They are too far away from ordinary people and the operating threshold is too high. For us small retail investors, the safest thing is to wait for Bitcoin and When Ethereum fell by more than 70%, they started to place fixed investments to earn the next wave of dividends. Other stud dogs and those who played with them were just giving away money to most retail investors.

Wealth = new story + new gameplay + new concept

As mentioned in May last year, we focused on the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Bitcoin second layer + Bitcoin NFT + brc-20 + halving cycle = Bitcoin’s new narrative. Regardless of whether brc-20 has use value and investment value, this will add a new narrative to the pie, regardless of the future of this story. Whether it can really be done, but it will actually introduce a lot of new traffic to the pie

Those who participated in the last round of brc20 started with at least 10 times the head count. The projects include: Ordi, Sats, Trac, Pipe, Ethi, Big Goose, BRC420 Blue Box, Bitmap and several others.

It’s all about the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The copycats have plummeted recently, and $ordi $sats has been trading strongly sideways. The next wave of gains may still be led by the big pie ecology. Next:

①The largest Web3 wallet in the world supports the implementation of the big pie ecosystem;
② Product delivery and beneficial implementation of BRC20 and improved protocols
③Layer 2 of Big Pie has been launched; the main narrative of Big Pie’s ecology has shifted from asset issuance to the explosion of second-tier applications.

BRC420 ecology explodes, tokenization begins in February, and the market value of the bull market is likely to exceed 5 billion

Pay attention to the coins that will make you rich a hundred times this year

I heard that Brother Celebrity didn’t kick him while he was down—in fact, he even stepped in to help. I wanted to check X to see what Nurse Xu had said, but ended up graduating.

Binance really is efficient!!!

I just tried withdrawing and found that I can withdraw now!!!

48 hours?? Not needed at all, or are small withdrawals unrestricted?

Come share your thoughts, everyone!

What do you think? @binancezh

Everyone keeps saying freezing it is good—good my ass. The hacker hasn’t stopped at all; there was another transaction 10 minutes ago. Can hackers withdraw funds???

Everyone's saying the exchange got its USDT stolen. I checked my account—thankfully, it's all still there.

10u turned into 3000u. I went to Hong Kong today to buy a new phone and hadn't checked the coin price at all. Turns out I made the money for my phone back from 10u alone 🤷‍♀️
What on earth happened to $jagent? Who's been buying nonstop?

China is brimming with talent
The most comprehensive breakdown of Claude’s account-ban mechanisms to date

Bitget was hacked earlier,
and Binance was hacked today.
Half the liquidity in the crypto market has been drained.
It's probably time to take a break for a while.

Sorry, we failed

jagent has no vision 400x

bibi has no vision 40x

swarm has no vision 30x

varc showed some vision 6×→1.5x

Fuck your mother 🖕🏻

Forget all that—buy some BTC first, then we'll talk 😠

If your coins are stolen, CZ will compensate you.

But if your futures position gets liquidated, nobody cares.

At this point, the people losing the most are futures traders.

Can Binance do something about these chickens?

ETH premium, USDC depegging

Binance hack triggers a plunge
Huang Licheng has just $1.50 left in his account. Over the past six hours, “Machi Big Brother” Huang Licheng’s ETH long positions on Hyperliquid were liquidated eight times in a row, wiping out his entire position.
He woke up to find just $1.50 left in his account

Holy shit!! $jagent I didn't even know I'd placed the trade!

If it hadn't reminded me, even my bot wouldn't have alerted me about it!

It just sold for 2,780U— the miracle of turning 10U into 2,780U 😂

I'm moving TRX now and have made 2,000 USDT in profit so far. It's 0.38 on-chain, while exchanges are only at 0.35. TRX initially had a price gap of nearly 10%; it's still 5% now.

Did Musk finally pull it off?

X is now available for download on the China-region App Store.

You can even subscribe to Blue V directly in RMB!

Is something changing with China-region Apple IDs, or is this a bug?

And it’s not just X—YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, and Google Maps are all available now, while AI apps like ChatGPT and Claude are still blocked.

You still need a VPN to use them.
Is this preparation for the APEC meeting in Shenzhen? Pair it with Shenzhen’s internet without the Great Firewall, and it’ll take off!

During the hour Binance was hacked, a textbook arbitrage window opened on-chain. Someone made $3.47 million in an hour. I dug through the on-chain data and reconstructed what happened.

【What happened】 Around 4:24 a.m. Beijing time on October 30, Binance’s hot wallet was hacked. The hacker had a huge amount of USDT and, afraid Tether would freeze it, frantically swapped USDT for ETH on-chain through DEXs. At the same time, Binance suspended withdrawals, so cheap ETH on the exchange couldn’t be moved on-chain. The result:
ETH on Uniswap was bought up to $2,560–$2,750 from 04:40 to 05:40, with some trades above $3,000.
Aave uses Chainlink oracles that aggregate exchange prices. The oracle price stayed at $2,250–$2,290 the whole time, while ETH on-chain was 15%–30% more expensive than on exchanges. The gap lasted nearly an hour.
【The arbitrage playbook】

Deposit USDC/USDT into Aave as collateral
Borrow ETH at the oracle price of about $2,280
Immediately sell it for USDT on a DEX or aggregator at $2,600+

Deposit the USDT you sold back in, then keep borrowing and selling

When the price falls back to around $2,290, buy back ETH to repay the loan. The spread is all profit. This wasn’t an attack on Aave; there was nothing wrong with Aave’s contracts. Essentially, it was arbitrage between CEX and DEX prices. Aave was just a “window for borrowing ETH at exchange prices.”
【On-chain data】 I pulled the addresses that borrowed ETH on Aave mainnet in the 6 hours after the incident: 61 in total. Excluding the hacker’s address (which borrowed 19,762 ETH against $60 million in USDT), I calculated the profit and loss for each trade:
No. 1, 0x0cdd…61D8: sold 12,289 ETH at an average price of $2,580; bought back 12,314 ETH at an average price of $2,297; ▶earned about $3.47 million◀
No. 2 made about $780,000, with a batch of sales above $3,000
Nos. 3–5 made about $670,000, $430,000, and $290,000, respectively
The top 10 made about $6.36 million combined. Across 206 sales, the average sale price was 10% above the oracle price, with the maximum exceeding 30%.

The No. 1 trader’s approach is worth learning from:
Entered just 24 minutes after the incident

Already had $37 million USDC deposited in Aave
Sold in 18 transactions of 300–1,000 ETH each, using an aggregator to split orders and reduce slippage
Started buying back ETH to repay as soon as the price fell, and had mostly closed the position within two hours
【Lessons learned】
When something goes wrong at a CEX and withdrawals are suspended, the price gap between on-chain markets and exchanges can persist for a long time. A gap that would normally be arbitraged away in seconds lasted an hour this time.

Opportunities are in places that price assets using exchange prices: lending pools that use Chainlink oracles (Aave, Compound, Spark, and others). They don’t track the live DEX price.

Have your capital ready in advance. If you wait until you see the news to deposit USDT and open a position, the window will already be gone.
The window is short. The more ETH gets sold on DEXs, the cheaper it gets; how much you can make depends on liquidity and speed. After 05:30, the gap was down to just 3%–5%.
Aave quickly froze its mainnet V3 market, so latecomers couldn’t even borrow.
【Risks】

ETH borrowing positions are exposed to ETH continuing to rise, which can lower the health factor. That’s why large traders split their trades into batches instead of going all in at once.

Any ETH you haven’t bought back remains as debt, and a price rebound can erase your profits.
Gas can get expensive when the chain is congested, making the trade unprofitable for smaller amounts.
The next time a black swan event hits, first figure out where your “ETH borrowing window” is.
(Data: calculated from individual on-chain trades, using an ETH price of $2,280; gas fees not deducted. Not investment advice.)

It's hard to imagine a college student born in the 2000s actually using handwriting input 👀 Is this really his skill level? 😂