王不爱
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王不爱
推特X：王不爱，全网同名。手续费返现20%邀请码：BW9149。TACO交易和左侧交易者，运用自然交易理论&裸K，分享日常和交易思路。来不及了快上车！和不爱一起穿越牛熊！
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😎The group will broadcast trading strategies from time to time, and everyone is welcome to join the group to communicate. There is also a limited-time red envelope to receive~
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The U.S. has put forward a new proposal, and Iranian senior officials apparently want to seek a “permanent solution”? According to an Arab satellite TV channel, Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff made a lightning visit to Iran to bring back key information. Once the news broke, international crude oil prices plunged straight away during the trading session. After fighting and pausing for so long, the market is tasting, for the first time, the flavor of real de-escalation. But in this round of oil-price drops, who exactly is this move really benefiting?
Partly True
After 5 and a half months of fighting between Iran and Iraq and repeated openings and closings of the Strait of Hormuz, global gasoline prices surprisingly haven’t moved much. After all this fighting, the oil market didn’t even give a decent bout of volatility—so was geopolitical risk already absorbed, or is the market just numb by now?
Alibaba Cloud Wan 3.0 is live, and video generation models are heating up among domestic cloud providers. For a 30-second long video, it can also directly ingest documents—making it usable for short dramas and ad/marketing. The API price ranges from 0.3 yuan to 1.2 yuan per second, with a limited-time 30% discount. Would ordinary people pay 1.2 yuan per second for 1080P to shoot a Douyin-style video?
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Wosh is cornered. Inflation has exceeded targets for five straight years, U.S. Treasury yields are out of control, and he even sent secret messages to Trump that the Congress is investigating… Wall Street is directly calling out: if you don’t make a move this Friday, don’t even think about regaining control of the market. Friends, with the new Fed chief’s first move, is he trying to burn himself—or burn the market?
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The RBA says out loud it won’t raise rates, but the minutes were all over the place! The Middle East conflict, energy prices, and AI investment were all pulled out and treated as risks. Even more ruthless: a former official at the Bank of Japan directly said terminal rates could exceed 1.5%, and the Taylor rule might even point to 2.75%. One side is Australia holding steady, the other is Japan cornered—how long can the global central bank faucet keep running? Friends, can your positions hold up?
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Bessent has once again taken hard action against Iran. This time, he directly called for the “Economic Pariah Action,” threatening to sanction anyone who does business with Iran. But on closer inspection, he didn’t even specify concrete targets for the actions—purely intimidation. This isn’t sanctions; it’s clearly using geopolitical risk as a bargaining chip, and global markets are bound to shake again. Friends, is this bluff meant to intimidate, or are they really going to take action?
Market makers are not calm anymore. Wintermute’s short exposure on Hyperliquid increased from $146 million to $191 million—adding a $44.58 million position. ETH is being heavily bet on. While professional players provide liquidity in the spot market, they also step up bearish bets in the derivatives market. Doesn’t this price action feel more and more like calm before the storm?
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Missile stockpiles at critical levels! The inventories of the U.S. “Patriot” and “THAAD” have fallen by roughly 66% and 44%, respectively, while battlefield consumption is far outpacing replenishment capabilities. Citrini said the global defense industry is entering a new round of expansion driven by missile restocking. Will defense stocks take off? With this super missile-restocking cycle, do you dare to get on board?
Is Bessent really going to move on TGA? The scale is nearly $1 trillion, providing ammunition to expand US Treasury buyback programs... Last week, the Treasury just doubled the buyback size, from $2 billion—so is it planning to step in and buy bonds to suppress yields? Once the news broke, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and US Treasuries all jumped at the same time. The Treasury is using its cash pool to backstop returns; in the short term, it can indeed stabilize yields—but is this effectively QE in disguise? With the dollar’s liquidity getting looser again, hard assets are once more being pushed along. Friends, have you positioned your portfolio accordingly?
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Bernstein rates Circle as “outperform,” sets a $140 price target, and even says growth doesn’t rely on the “Clarity Act”... Over the past week, USDC supply rose by $1.7 billion, and its market share has been climbing too. The stablecoin space is increasingly looking like real finance, but with a price target this high, is this just sweet talk—or is there real confidence behind it? Friends, before it lists, would you stock up on some USDC?
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Has the chance of the Fed raising rates in September surged to 41.0%? Once the CME data came out, the odds of keeping interest rates unchanged in September dropped to 59.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike in October is also at 44.8%. So is the market starting to bet that inflation can’t be controlled? Folks, here comes the rate-hike horror story again—can your position hold up?
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Fidelity’s fund manager doubled the gold position directly in just three weeks—fully maximizing the allocation! With the U.S. Treasury market swinging wildly, what’s being exposed isn’t only interest-rate risk, but also a credibility problem with Fed policy. After the last sudden plunge, Fidelity called for adding positions using one playbook—this time they’ve gone all in with real money. But don’t rush to follow; first, see whether the gold price can hold its ground, folks. Is this a bargain hunt, or just catching a flying knife?
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CZ signed！！！ @cz_binance @binancezh @sisibinance ❤️❤️❤️
CZ signed！！！ @cz_binance @binancezh @sisibinance ❤️❤️❤️
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Japan government bond auctions are once again in doubt—can U.S. Treasury yields still be kept down? As linkage between the Japanese and U.S. bond markets strengthens, if next week’s Japanese auctions show weak demand and yields move higher, domestic funds may flow back to Japan—pushing U.S. Treasury yields upward as well. Friends, how scared are you of this follow-up blow?
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The Ministry of Finance is pushing share buybacks—are the US dollars going to foot the bill? Deutsche Bank spells it out plainly: the size of US Treasuries has surpassed $40 trillion, and “soft” financial repression is basically forcing the dollar to depreciate to ease the debt burden. Isn’t this asking everyone in the world who holds dollars to pay back together? Buybacks to drive interest rates down, a weaker dollar—hard assets like gold prices and Bitcoin are likely to be pushed along again. Friends, are your dollar assets still running around unprotected?
GTA 6 leaks—are hackers issuing tokens and cutting the crypto “leeks”? Cyberleek ran off with the game while also minting tokens; the market cap briefly surged to $29 million, a 20-fold jump. They didn’t even get to play the game—first they took a batch of “leeks.” Friends, this batch of cybercrime turned into Web3 marketing—do you believe it?
Three days in, it pumped 215 billion US dollars— and the total market cap of copycat coins jumped straight to 1 trillion… After Trump said one sentence, the entire crypto space went into a frenzy. CryptoQuant analysts said that from August 19 to 22, the total market cap of copycat coins surged 24%; mid-cap and small-cap coins were hit the hardest— the smaller the market cap, the crazier the rally. Was this leg of the move pure hot air, or the real bull run? Friends, first check whether what you hold is above the 200-day moving average— don’t wait until the tide goes out to find out you were swimming naked…
Verified
After Trump just said he didn’t instruct Bessent to intervene in the bond market, he turned around and tightly clutched military options toward Iran… Is it that the market is supposed to take it on itself, or is he ready to flip the table at any time? Iran’s parliament is also pushing forward legislation to impose a fee for services in the Strait of Hormuz—once again tightening the bond between oil prices and inflation. Friends, in this tug-of-war between geopolitics and the bond market, do you think Washington is truly calm, or is it holding back a big move?
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