BTC猫头鹰

#牛市到来 The bull market may have truly already started. Reasons are as follows: judge for yourself!

1: On the macro level: the Fed’s rate hikes have been implemented, Japan’s rate hike has also landed, and clear plans have materialized. The Russia-Ukraine war has become largely “inconsequential,” and the situation in the Middle East is basically at this point as well. On the surface, it’s all kinds of bearish news; in reality, all the bad news has already been priced in. In other words, things can only get better from here—nothing worse than before.

2: On geopolitics: as the U.S. midterm elections approach, Trump has to cool down tensions in the Middle East. Once geopolitics eases, how should the market move? Think it through yourself. Oil prices are the best reference: once oil starts to plunge hard, crypto and U.S. stocks will inevitably surge!

3: On technical analysis: the daily chart for BTC is at the top of the daily consolidation range. The weekly MACD has already touched the 0 axis. I said earlier that this signal is extremely crucial. It’s not hard to spot the bull-market start signal; the rare part is the confirmation signal. It’s like breaking a key level—if the pullback hasn’t finished yet, you can’t say it’s firmly held. And the weekly MACD crossing above the 0 axis is precisely that confirmation. Compared with 2023: with the MACD standing above 0, BTC’s corresponding position must also hold above 82,000, then it should push toward the 85,000–87,000 area. After the pullback confirms, the market won’t turn back.

4: Yesterday I noticed the public-chain sector was broadly surging. Old geese who have survived several bull-bear cycles should know: when a bull market starts, BTC breaks first, then ETH is especially strong. After that comes the public chain, followed by consolidation—then the AI sector, the DeFi sector, and the meme sector will begin rotating. And right now, the broad strength in public chains also supports the bull-market start signal, suggesting it’s about to enter the confirmation stage.

The bull market has started. Be cautious about shorting—be cautious about shorting!

As a technical-type player + a blogger, I shouldn’t be overly expecting the trend. Mature traders act based on real-time price movements and the corresponding strategy, and shouldn’t add too much personal subjective expectation that deviates from the objective essence of trading! But as a veteran “old leek” in the crypto圈 for seven years, I have a strong feeling—maybe that person really is coming. There will definitely be a pullback later, but there will not be new lows. 🔝I’m staking this claim here—see you in half a year to find out!

To all my friends who have been paying attention to me:
As Binance Square becomes more and more regulated, more and more people have realized the importance of real trading; so I decided to recreate a live trading micro-account @猫头鹰实盘 ; over there, I’ll provide the entry signals for each of my trades for anyone who needs them; after each trade is entered, I’ll share it as quickly as possible; whether right or wrong is up to the fans to verify the results; because my account was created too recently, the data isn’t sufficient yet—so opening contract live trading isn’t rigorous enough right now; I’m planning to show it after the number of trades reaches 300! (the number of posts is approximately equal to the number of entry trades)

I’ve never opened trades with copy-trading signals because I don’t want people to say I’m earning commission; so basically I’ve been giving signals directly in the live room. However, live time is limited, so signals opened outside of the live room will be posted later in the live trading micro-account @猫头鹰实盘 —follow it if you want to see them!

When the market was bad, I rested for half a year, and only recently came back to start trading. I’m also gradually resuming streaming lately. Before the contract live trading on the micro-account opens, if you want to follow the entries, you can come to my live room (this account will be used only for streaming going forward).

The Square is full of all kinds of virtual platforms and hedging trading—be sure to tell them apart; let’s resist together!

The price levels are all provided by the livestream! Could they really be worse than those from paid instructors?

You don’t need to ask for precise entry levels—just join my livestream!!
After the Fed meeting wrapped up last night, the market initially moved higher. Some people in the livestream couldn’t resist chasing the move, but I had a strong feeling something wasn’t right. Given how the big players operate, a straight-up pump wasn’t realistic, since too many people were chasing longs. So last night, I only gave one trade in the livestream: a short. It’s now showing a small profit!
The Bitcoin level I gave was 79,758, with an entry at 79,200 and an add-on at 79,200;
For ETH, I gave 2,310–2,325, with an add-on at 2,298;
For SOL, the entry zone was 99.68–101.
Looking at it now, all the entries were pretty much spot-on. I entered SOL yesterday afternoon and kept a core position, so friends who followed my entry later in the livestream should have made a profit!

I don’t usually trade ETH, so I only took a rough look at it. Someone in the livestream said Aoying entered at 2,343. That actually made me even more confident that price would first drop to sweep the liquidity below, especially since the midterm elections haven’t been decided yet and there are all kinds of data releases today!

I really wanted to short SanDisk at 1,420, but decided against it because earnings were coming out today. Later, Google’s earnings dragged it down too. What a shame!

I’ve said several times since last week that gold should be avoided before the midterm elections. As for the reasoning, it’s something I talk about in every livestream.

What I’m trying to say is that trading requires patience and a sound rationale! Without patience, you’ll often get stuck in losing positions; without a rationale, you won’t be able to hold onto a trade. Compared with the friends who chased in yesterday, those who followed my levels and entered today have an advantage in both entry price and mindset!

I didn't expect Google's earnings report to tank U.S. stocks! Haha

One of my followers quadrupled their account with a single trade—seriously impressive, though the position was definitely a bit too large! That said, if you want to grow a small account, you have to be willing to go all in at key moments. You definitely won't get anywhere by just grinding away slowly!
I've closed out all my U.S. stock positions!
Bitcoin didn't reach my target, so I didn't sell at the high. In the end, I had to exit at 80,600. So, looking at it this way, crypto is still pretty awful—the price swings and wicks in both directions make it seem heavily manipulated!
Going forward, I'll focus more on U.S. and Korean stocks! There's a lot of news coming out over the next couple of days, so I've kept a small SOL position to see how things play out. Let's wait until the Fed meeting is over before choosing a direction!
I'll be livestreaming tonight for a late-night session—let's watch the candlesticks dance!

Every rise has signs you can spot. To make sure everyone caught the move, I went live at 3 a.m. the day before yesterday and explained why the market was about to go up. Then in yesterday’s livestream, I emphasized once again that everyone should hold their positions! These were all predictions made in advance—if you don’t believe me, go watch the livestream replay!

Owl is a small-time blogger with a modest following, and my livestreams don’t get many viewers. But for every trade, I clearly explain my reasoning to my followers. Anyone can give you entry and exit points, but not everyone will tell you the logic behind them. I may not have the flashy tricks or entertaining content that others do, but if you stick around and listen carefully, you’ll see how sincere I am!

If you genuinely want to learn how to trade, you’re welcome to follow me. Let’s make money and have fun together!

The smaller account still has two positions:
SanDisk, which had been underwater for a week, is back in the green and profitable. Target: 1400! #SNDK
For the BTC position opened yesterday, the first target is 82900. Can it get there? #BTC

If you can't hold on, go work a factory job!!

Is Bitcoin really going to take another big leg down?
I don't think that's necessarily the case!
Lately, the most common thing I hear on the trading feed is that Bitcoin is bound to plunge again. Some people are watching $75,000, others $72,000, and others $68,000. But the most important thing isn't the price levels people are watching—it's that retail traders have once again, almost unanimously, turned bearish. I checked the on-chain data today, and the cumulative number of limit orders at $75,000 keeps growing. But that's exactly what worries me: when most people are pricing in the same direction, the market often moves the other way! Here's why:

1. Technicals: It's been 36 days of consolidation since the breakout on September 21, compared with just 27 days of consolidation in the previous move. A prolonged period of choppy trading and shakeout is either the calm before a sharp drop or a buildup before a big rally. I lean toward the latter. Technically, $80,000 is the key level this time around, just as $75,500 was during the previous consolidation. A break below it points to a pullback; holding above it points to a breakout. Even more interestingly, before the previous rally, price made several fake breakdowns on the 4-hour chart. We can clearly see something similar happening now, with price repeatedly moving back and forth between $79,000 and $80,500!

2. Macro: The Fed's rate decision is on the 29th, and the market is largely pricing in no rate hike. The market has already priced in the possibility of a hike, so I think the uncertainty will be behind us either way. How high the market can rally will mainly depend on Warsh's remarks. With the midterm elections coming up on the 4th, this election is primarily about which party controls the House and Senate. As long as neither side wins complete control, the result should be positive for the market. After the last midterm elections, the market started rallying.

3. From an overall trading perspective, it doesn't make sense for the big players to push price below $79,000, then drop it to $75,000 and let a bunch of leveraged longs enter. Put another way, if the big players really take it down to $75,000, there's a good chance it will keep falling. So I'm choosing to get in early between $78,000 and $79,500. If it breaks below $77,000, I can cut my losses. If it rallies, my risk-reward ratio will be phenomenal! Shorting here doesn't offer much value, so I'll stay firmly long and stick to strict take-profit and stop-loss levels!

Finally, I want to say that when trading, you need to find a system that works for you. Someone else's system may be great, but that doesn't mean it's right for you. Don't follow too many people's strategies, or you'll never become a consistently good trader.

According to the 80/20 rule, casinos often rely on get-rich-quick stories about the 20% to attract the 80% who actually contribute to their profits. The same applies in this space: taking the opposite side from the majority—or, more specifically, from most retail investors—as much as possible is an important factor in improving your odds of success!

Just stick to your own approach. Don’t pay too much attention to other people’s opinions, or you’ll never get good at trading.

If SanDisk hadn’t thrown off my rhythm, I would’ve caught the Ether trade too. Whatever you do, don’t stubbornly hold a losing position! Fucking hell! 🤮🤮