不太懂交易

Recently, quite a few friends with small amounts of capital have been asking me to do referral commissions for them. I’ve been advising them to go chasing freebies instead. Let me explain why:

1. In the small-capital stage, chasing freebies has a far better risk-reward ratio than trading:
With the same 10,000 principal, if you chase one order and earn 600 (a 6% return), then chasing 10 orders gives you a 60% return—basically risk-free income.
To achieve a 60% return through trading is much harder and carries far more risk than chasing freebies.

2. Trading with small capital develops bad habits:
The “impossible triangle” of trading is: win rate, payout (odds), and frequency.
I believe the healthiest approach is to focus on win rate and payout, and give up on frequency. This requires plenty of patience to wait for the market to present an opportunity—and also patience to hold positions until the move is finished.
The biggest mistakes small-capital traders make are frequent trading, blindly opening positions, and randomly adding leverage. Once those bad habits form, the trading path is basically over—there’s a 99.9% chance of liquidation and going to zero.

3. Input and output don’t match proportionally:
Trading is an extremely energy-consuming thing. Early-stage research, choosing entry points, and the psychological pressure when holding large positions—all of it drains people intensely.

Some people see that I earned 20 wu in two months and call it “picking up money.”
The amount of psychological pressure during those two months is something only I know. I think making money through trading is much harder than doing business.
Successful traders never have zero psychological issues—getting results requires you to dare to put on position size, and higher position size will inevitably increase psychological pressure.

If you truly don’t want to chase freebies, then go hunt for dogs (small opportunities), where you can use small capital to fight big odds. It can help you train your research ability and reaction speed. You’ll also get a few big opportunities each year. Using small to take on big is better than trying to use big to take on big.

If your goal is to make money, then you must first choose the right method and then put in the effort.
Working hard in the wrong direction: the best case is double the effort for half the results, and most likely it’ll be a dream that never comes true.

That’s all.

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Previously, in my post, I said that on Binance I don’t run any paid groups or do guided trading. I only provide content output / ask for tips / and offer trading commissions in return.

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Most of it goes to everyone; I only take a tiny bit 🤏

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These days I also thought about how to provide more resources for friends who trust me. My preliminary plan is that later I’ll set up a group chat, where:
1. I’ll invite two real-life friends to share: one is a private fund manager (active long side), and the other is an independent trader (profited 18wu this year).
I’m relatively better at fundamental analysis, and my technical analysis is pretty weak. These two friends are far stronger than I am in technical analysis.
It’s a pure sharing-only version—no hidden agenda.
2. I’ll also spend some effort in the group to do preliminary fundamental analysis of certain tradable assets that might be actionable, and to answer some questions from group members.

If commissions are hard to set up, that’s completely fine too. Most of my content output is on the forum/public square, which won’t affect the experience at all 😁

I went out to travel recently and didn’t really pay attention to the market.

Because of the repeated developments in the Iran-Iraq tensions, the overall market started to pull back.
It’s not just crypto—gold and U.S. stocks also all fell.
This feels like a normal market move. Since the cost basis is relatively low, I didn’t plan to take any action.
Right now I have orders set for a break-even (no-loss) level. If the trade hits break-even, I’ll take another look and see if there’s an opportunity to enter.

Take a laid-back attitude toward the market. Since the long holiday is here, go out and have fun more—trading is just a part of life 🙂‍↔️

PS: Hailar is really, really cold!

$HYPE
Many people believe that the hype’s current price has already peaked, because if you calculate it, the FDV is already 90 billion.
Personally, I think hype is still in an early stage. The main difference is that people have different views on hype’s fully diluted market cap in the future.

Granted, based on the FDV, it’s indeed a very high market cap. The currently unallocated portions are mainly in two parts:
1. Team allocation: 24%
2. Treasury: escrowed/pledged emissions and community rewards: 38.8%
The gap lies in what form these allocations will flow into the market.

Personally, I believe the team will fully pledge all of its allocation next, extracting only the staking rewards. As for the treasury allocation, it will also only be used for staking rewards and will not involve large-scale airdrops. The reasons are as follows:
1. In the past few months, the team’s sold share has been 433,000 tokens per month, which is exactly equal to the full-pledge staking rewards of the 24% allocation.
2. The mainnet has already launched hype collateralized lending, with a collateral ratio of 65%. If there were large-scale team unlocks and airdrop distributions, it would cause liquidations—i.e., all stakers would be forced to get liquidated. I don’t think Jeff wouldn’t realize that.
3. If we backtest the team’s full-pledge staking rewards at today’s price, it comes to around $450 million, which is more than enough to cover the team’s compensation and rewards.
4. I believe Jeff won’t do anything that harms the ecosystem or the token price.

If the above assumptions hold, then hype’s fully circulating market cap would be only about $30 billion—completely undervalued.
Hopefully Jeff can clarify this at Token2049.

The above is purely my personal judgment and may not be correct. Please stay rational 🙂‍↔️

I looked at the timeline—when no one was paying attention to this coin at all, Zack followed it on Twitter…
emm, it feels kind of strange; there might be a scam
I’ll head out for now, still made a little profit

Talked about 1wu too much, bought agrippa with an 8m market cap—entered the trade
A meme coin stock of Meta that Zuckerberg is paying attention to
Feels undervalued; it’s a 100m target
Let’s see

If the coin-and-stock meme is the meme version of this bull run, then according to today’s buzz and volume, the leading token will only happen on the Robinhood chain.

Even Zuckerberg has been paying attention to the meta coin-and-stock meme on longxyz.
Basically, it’s already set.

Stonk is destined to lose to longxyz.

AI entered the short-term position early
longxyz founder calls out trades, respect the first hand

My take on hype right now is that if you hold it long-term, you don’t need to move at all.
After missing the last sell-off, I never want to feel that way again 😅

Anyone shorting hype failed.
Anyone taking profits on hype ended up selling at the wrong time.
No matter what price you bought hype at, you’re profitable up to now.
And I think this is still at a very early stage.

As Buffett once said: a company is the last buyer of its own stock.
All of Hyperliquid’s businesses are built around the value of hype.
If a project can generate $1 billion for buybacks of its own token in a year, what is there to worry about?

Holding your position, enduring the volatility, and trusting Jeff are the only things I need to do in the next few months. And I’m fully confident that patience will be rewarded with plenty.

Hyperliquid.

Since last year, when BTC went through the ETF, the crypto market has shown a clear trend toward institutionalization. Simply put, projects now need to show growth and profitability. This bull market will follow the same logic.

In the crypto world, capturing the DeFi main theme is like how the U.S. stock market captures the AI main theme.

Don’t feel like you’ve hit the top every time it goes up a little. Pick good targets, hold steady, and just wait for Wall Street to lift the market.

When the bull market begins, the returns from long-term holding will definitely be higher than those from swing trading. Look farther ahead—don’t get off the ride easily.

xx coin is just xx coin

Just looking at the charts, you can tell that before the news, they stuffed a bunch of chips in behind the scenes.
After the news came out, retail investors chased the rally, and then they kept dumping along the way.

In a bull market, never get greedy for the price increase of xx coin—buy quality projects with good prospects and hold on; nothing is stronger than that.

$FORM
The other day when choosing a table coin, I did consider the form—one, because it’s cheap enough; two, because I thought if later they announce a buyback policy, it would have a better upside.
So tell me—what happened? They already made a buyback promise before, but they kept not executing it.
Now that they’re about to be done for, they suddenly remember to pump it with a buyback plan 🤣

Don’t touch projects from the animal team. It’ll make you unlucky.

As the former air-raid commander who firmly believed in BTC during a long bearish market, and in a MicroStrategy-esque spiral of death (those earlier followers of mine know), I’m going to explain why I can catch this bull market train.

The simplest truth—and also the hardest to do—is: always respect the market, respect price, and respect the candlestick chart.

Looking at the earlier candlesticks, you can see that even after a series of negative events like MicroStrategy selling coins and developments such as AI and quantum computing breakthroughs, BTC still managed to hold around the 60,000 level and trade in a tight range. In a bear market, futures/contract funding is generally low, so we can draw the conclusion:
“At around 60,000, there has always been capital coming in to buy spot.”

So after the U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the swap of short-term debt for long-term debt, once BTC officially began to move, I got on board with hype right away—buying from 62 to 73.5.

Next is also a very straightforward logic: after the 7.15/7.16 clear and transparent bill failed and the Fed raised rates, but the market didn’t break down—this proves there was basically no selling pressure left.

So after observing how the market reacted for a while following the rate hikes, I got on hype again and built my position at 79.

The second move is an extension of the awareness gained from the first move. If your judgment of the market is wrong the first time, then your second judgment will also be wrong—resulting in missing out on the easiest possible run.

Back to the beginning of this article: always respect the market, and always challenge your own fixed beliefs—only then can you make infinite progress.

That’s all.

In the morning I saw the news and originally wanted to place an order, but later I got busy with other things and forgot.
Usually, when bad news doesn’t cause a drop, it’s actually supposed to go up—simple logic.

Hype is rising—once it hits, we’ll be entering the annual Smart Money ranking. The entry threshold is 42wu in profit. When we reach it, we’ll give everyone red envelopes to share the good fortune.

The next goal is the Smart Money ranking for the overall standings. The minimum threshold is 150wu in profit. After that, we won’t be withdrawing funds anymore. Let’s see whether we can achieve it within one year.

Wishing everyone a prosperous bull market together 😄

Recently, a Twitter wallet-theft incident caused by an Apple app has been trending nonstop.

Are things this advanced now? 😅

So does that mean, from now on, trading cryptocurrencies will need its own phone? You’ll only be able to watch videos on a computer 😢

About as expected for the market
The SEC positive-news trend is already getting weak; the crypto and equity meme trade is seeing a broad retreat. I expect UNI and ARB will also pull back.

DRV and KNTQ have both been moving quite well; DeFi is still tasty.
I re-bought KNTQ, fully exited PURR, and will reassess after CTF(C) comes out before making the next move.

The next cycle of the crypto/equity meme narrative should be about Robinhood meetings at the end of the month.
Buy in again near the lows.

The rotation in the crypto market is happening too fast. I caught a run up the whole way—but if you step wrong even once, you end up compounding mistakes. Stay rational and no FOMO.

The princes of the Middle East are bombarding my positions again.
Let’s take a look at the situation—if there’s a military escalation, I’ll leave.

For now, I cleared my short-term positions; I made about 8k.

On the new Hyperliquid lending market
The BTC collateral ratio is 50%, and the HYPE collateral ratio is 65%
This is set by the team—they believe these collateral ratios are relatively safe

This means:
1. There won’t be any large-scale airdrops anymore
2. The team won’t dump
3. You can give up on the FDV-based algorithm and instead calculate full-float market cap
4. In non-extreme market conditions, HYPE will not retrace more than 35% from any peak

Bull Market Trading Guide 1.0

Brothers, a magnificent bull market is about to set sail. In the early stage of the shift from bear to bull, it’s the period where the easiest time is to lose money—so I’m writing a trading guide. Wishing everyone can make money 🙂‍↔️

1. Don’t short! The weeds on the grave of the people who shorted ZEC next door are already three feet tall.
2. If you’re already on the train with a profit cushion, don’t get off lightly.
3. Predict the next round of market narratives and set up in advance.
4. For assets that have already been covered by the narrative, be cautious about chasing—unless there’s fundamental support.
5. If you’re not capable enough to earn alpha profits, then be honest and buy some BTC or HYPE to earn beta.

Wishing everyone wealth in the bull market. That’s all 🙂‍↔️