不太懂交易

Ad Post: How to Properly Save Trading Fees

Previously, in my post, I said that on Binance I don’t run any paid groups or do guided trading. I only provide content output / ask for tips / and offer trading commissions in return.

Let me promote my own trading commissions again:
Highest commission across the entire web
Highest commission across the entire web
Highest commission across the entire web
Important matters said three times. Don’t ask about the exact ratio—it’s against the rules.

It’s paid every Monday. You can calculate it yourself.
Most of it goes to everyone; I only take a tiny bit 🤏

Invitation code: SU5678
If you need it, add my UID: 1122535758

These days I also thought about how to provide more resources for friends who trust me. My preliminary plan is that later I’ll set up a group chat, where:
1. I’ll invite two real-life friends to share: one is a private fund manager (active long side), and the other is an independent trader (profited 18wu this year).
I’m relatively better at fundamental analysis, and my technical analysis is pretty weak. These two friends are far stronger than I am in technical analysis.
It’s a pure sharing-only version—no hidden agenda.
2. I’ll also spend some effort in the group to do preliminary fundamental analysis of certain tradable assets that might be actionable, and to answer some questions from group members.

If commissions are hard to set up, that’s completely fine too. Most of my content output is on the forum/public square, which won’t affect the experience at all 😁

PINNED

$SKHYNIX
Some advice for friends who don’t have many assets (under one million RMB)

Don’t do secondary-market trading (including US stocks/A-shares/large commodity futures/crypto, etc.)
Put all your principal into finding “free-money” opportunities
Products like Binance Alpha, digital product national subsidies, Moutai, cross-platform new listings, etc.

If you do “free-money” well, your return rate won’t be lower than secondary trading, while the risk is much lower
After going through the “free-money” practice, you’ll learn a lot of knowledge yourself; once you’ve made money from “free-money,” then take the profits and see whether you have a talent for trading

I also entered the industry last year through Binance Alpha. I probably made 300–400k RMB in total, and then gradually started trying trading, using the money I earned so I felt much less pressure

I’ve already reached level A8, yet I’m still doing “free-money.” For friends with limited principal, what reason is there not to do it?

Don’t be overly ambitious or look down on it; don’t think about getting rich overnight. Do it steadily and earnestly—slow is fast

$SKHYNIX
I’m watching the general trend of US stock storage
I want to do a t
Just did it—went flying 😅
The Korean side is really tough

$SKHYNIX
If Temasek really invested in Samsung and SK hynix, then there would truly be a chance of a turnaround
It’s normal for a sovereign fund to consult with the South Korean government before taking an equity stake
After all, SK hynix’s recent baffling moves succeeded in winning Micron at a 60% discount
If you buy it but they don’t pay dividends or repurchase later, then you’d basically be buying nothing

If they can take shareholders’ interests seriously, the discount can be repaired
Repairing it is the prelude to a turnaround

Science popularization post: How to correctly manage your position

Many friends on the square watch all kinds of experts posting their results. It’s all “10x–20x” and full margin all the time—profits are exploding.
But even though you open at the same price point, you only dare to put in a small position, so your profits are small.

I think this is falling into a misconception: you keep regretting not having placed a heavy position when you’re right about the market.

I did the same thing when I traded hype. My initial plan was to buy 10 wu. Then as the price went up, I started regretting it and added two more times at higher levels, which made it hard to hold the profit and quickly led to a retracement.
One bad experience taught me to be more honest. When I decide which direction to trade, I’ll buy the position to the level I want in one go, and I won’t fomo.

Now my ability boundaries suggest I should be able to hold around 40 wu. I also won’t open positions larger than that.

If you open a position, and then you feel like you have to watch the chart all the time, can’t sleep well, panic when the market moves against you, or can’t bring yourself to cut losses—then you’ve opened too big. Reducing your position size will make your trading better.

The most important thing in trading is mindset management. Position size directly determines your mindset. Your ability to read the market and choose entry points are secondary.

Trading is a process of continuous learning and improvement. I hope we can all keep making money in the market 😁

$SKHYNIX
Take a gamble on the CPI
Feels like I can’t really get trapped at this level anyway
😅

$SKHYNIX
Watching Korean stocks (especially Hynix) has already given me near-PTSD just from the opening
Every day the market opens by going straight down to the next one 😅

Partly True

$SNDK
Today there’s news that Nvidia is taking the lead to arrange syndicated financing of RMB 500 billion to build data centers.
Many friends are saying it’s a Ponzi scheme or revolving/rollover financing, but I don’t think that’s the important point.

Let me share my own analysis:
Based on the current U.S. Treasury long-end yield of 5.25%, plus an additional 3% risk premium, plus profit margin—the return rate of this financing is at least at an annualized level of 9% or higher.

If there are bonds with high interest rates, sufficient scale, collateral, and cash flow that you can buy, then why would you need to buy AI equipment stocks?

Under the same premise that the AI bull market is still ongoing:
A collateralized bond with an annualized 9% return is far more attractive than a stock trading at a forward P/E of 6 (SanDisk, Micron), isn’t it?

Still bearish on storage

$SPCX
Yesterday’s trade: I originally opened it based on the weekend’s Musk call signals and the price action from the previous day.

Even before and during the weekend, the chart actually looked fine.

After the market opened, it was obvious that institutions were using the good news to offload, so I chose to close the position.

Losing more than 10k USD is pretty painful, but there’s nothing I can do—it’s not the kind of setup I expected 😅

Maybe I’ll find another place to reopen it.

$SPCX
After shouting orders over the weekend and ending up like this—only can say, amazing.
So you treated retail investors as liquidity you can exit as if they were institutions, huh?
Once the buy was done 😅

$SPCX
When shorting, you need to look for short opportunities.
A few days ago I was looking at 70.

When going long, you need to look for long opportunities.
Elon Musk is so badass—seeing 1000 isn’t too much, right? 😁

After the buyback news comes out, it’s still falling
This time we’re not short on storage, right? 😅

不太懂交易

$SKHYNIX
Although there’s been a share buyback news, there’s still no desire to place orders.
If we go long now, it’s nothing more than betting that there will be funds moving in pre-market to push prices higher.
Even if it actually opens that way, it’s still scary—after all, on Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls were a positive surprise, yet it still dropped sharply.
Micron and SanDisk’s buybacks didn’t make much difference either; if it’s going to fall, it will fall.

No matter how you look at it, each move has its logic. So, it’s better to just stand by and wait for a better opportunity.

$SPCX
The reasons for going long are also quite simple:
On the weekend, Musk posted on X, outlining a vision of Starlink generating 2,000 in revenue per year.
Based on current indications, as long as Starship reuse and the V3 satellites succeed, it’s highly likely this can be achieved.
So, until it’s thoroughly disproven, I think SpaceX is a very good speculative target.

The first unlock a few days ago was the most dangerous. If you can’t break through with that tranche, you can think of 105 as a hard floor; the subsequent unlocks will only affect how quickly the price rises.

Given these two assumptions, trading now at a price close to the IPO doesn’t seem too expensive—buying into the momentum isn’t a big deal. If things go wrong, just accept it—you’re buying in for the faith 😁

Bullish

$SPCX
I declare:
Musk is the Iron Man of today
The only true god of the 21st century
SpaceX is humanity’s future, the stars and the boundless sea

Always go long on SpaceX—tonight and every night alike

$SPCX
I kinda feel like opening one big rocket deal
Time to test the power of faith 😁

$TUT
This coin is like the lab.
You know it will go to zero, but you don’t know how high it will go before it goes to zero.

Even opening a 1/10 short could still get blown out.
The risk-reward ratio is way too crazy—there’s absolutely no reason to do it.

Too much nitpicking.
You can’t even say anything meaningful yourself, but you spend every day picking holes in the methods you’re given.
For ordinary people / no skills / no capital / in today’s market conditions—
If you’re not making money off free bonuses or “grinding the small stuff,” what other way is there to go?
With a small amount of capital, randomly trading is basically gambling.
Not only do you lose money, you can easily end up burning yourself out.

I’ve been through it too. I know what it’s like to have no money, and I hope I can help some friends find the right path.

This is my last post—if it can persuade even one person, that’s enough.
I won’t say more after this.

不太懂交易

Recently, quite a few friends with small amounts of capital have been asking me to do referral commissions for them. I’ve been advising them to go chasing freebies instead. Let me explain why:

1. In the small-capital stage, chasing freebies has a far better risk-reward ratio than trading:
With the same 10,000 principal, if you chase one order and earn 600 (a 6% return), then chasing 10 orders gives you a 60% return—basically risk-free income.
To achieve a 60% return through trading is much harder and carries far more risk than chasing freebies.

2. Trading with small capital develops bad habits:
The “impossible triangle” of trading is: win rate, payout (odds), and frequency.
I believe the healthiest approach is to focus on win rate and payout, and give up on frequency. This requires plenty of patience to wait for the market to present an opportunity—and also patience to hold positions until the move is finished.
The biggest mistakes small-capital traders make are frequent trading, blindly opening positions, and randomly adding leverage. Once those bad habits form, the trading path is basically over—there’s a 99.9% chance of liquidation and going to zero.

3. Input and output don’t match proportionally:
Trading is an extremely energy-consuming thing. Early-stage research, choosing entry points, and the psychological pressure when holding large positions—all of it drains people intensely.

Some people see that I earned 20 wu in two months and call it “picking up money.”
The amount of psychological pressure during those two months is something only I know. I think making money through trading is much harder than doing business.
Successful traders never have zero psychological issues—getting results requires you to dare to put on position size, and higher position size will inevitably increase psychological pressure.

If you truly don’t want to chase freebies, then go hunt for dogs (small opportunities), where you can use small capital to fight big odds. It can help you train your research ability and reaction speed. You’ll also get a few big opportunities each year. Using small to take on big is better than trying to use big to take on big.

If your goal is to make money, then you must first choose the right method and then put in the effort.
Working hard in the wrong direction: the best case is double the effort for half the results, and most likely it’ll be a dream that never comes true.

That’s all.

Recently, quite a few friends with small amounts of capital have been asking me to do referral commissions for them. I’ve been advising them to go chasing freebies instead. Let me explain why: 1. In the small-capital stage, chasing freebies has a far better risk-reward ratio than trading: With the same 10,000 principal, if you chase one order and earn 600 (a 6% return), then chasing 10 orders gives you a 60% return—basically risk-free income. To achieve a 60% return through trading is much harder and carries far more risk than chasing freebies. 2. Trading with small capital develops bad habits: The “impossible triangle” of trading is: win rate, payout (odds), and frequency. I believe the healthiest approach is to focus on win rate and payout, and give up on frequency. This requires plenty of patience to wait for the market to present an opportunity—and also patience to hold positions until the move is finished. The biggest mistakes small-capital traders make are frequent trading, blindly opening positions, and randomly adding leverage. Once those bad habits form, the trading path is basically over—there’s a 99.9% chance of liquidation and going to zero. 3. Input and output don’t match proportionally: Trading is an extremely energy-consuming thing. Early-stage research, choosing entry points, and the psychological pressure when holding large positions—all of it drains people intensely. Some people see that I earned 20 wu in two months and call it “picking up money.” The amount of psychological pressure during those two months is something only I know. I think making money through trading is much harder than doing business. Successful traders never have zero psychological issues—getting results requires you to dare to put on position size, and higher position size will inevitably increase psychological pressure. If you truly don’t want to chase freebies, then go hunt for dogs (small opportunities), where you can use small capital to fight big odds. It can help you train your research ability and reaction speed. You’ll also get a few big opportunities each year. Using small to take on big is better than trying to use big to take on big. If your goal is to make money, then you must first choose the right method and then put in the effort. Working hard in the wrong direction: the best case is double the effort for half the results, and most likely it’ll be a dream that never comes true. That’s all.

$SPCX
The timing to launch the big short-squeezing rocket is when the news breaks and the shorts get liquidated
The timing to go long and store for holds is when the news breaks and the longs get liquidated

Trading should be done in a simple mode
Don't make it too complicated😁