逐星哥布林

ETF outflows totaled $643.2 million last Friday; $BTC institutions are pulling back

「The first real test of how ETF investors would react to the largest crypto hack in history came back red.」That was how Decrypt began its weekend report. Put simply: institutions’ first reaction was to pull out.

On the first full U.S. trading day after the theft, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $643.2 million last Friday—the largest single-day outflow in October. The $441 million that had flowed in over four consecutive days was wiped out in one fell swoop. Net outflows for the week totaled $202 million, and the figure for October as a whole was about $516 million.

Ethereum ETFs were weaker still: outflows of $155.7 million in a single day, marking a fifth consecutive day of outflows.

Institutions didn’t buy the dip; they pulled out first. The data points to a short-term bearish outlook for $BTC , as well as for the broader market. The counterpoint: this view would be invalidated if daily inflows turn positive this week or outflows continue to narrow.

The trader who predicted a 700% rise in $XRP says: It’s hard to be bearish now

A massive piece of bearish news hit—the theft of $6.3 billion—yet the market barely fell. XRP is now at $1.2499, down just 0.1% over 24 hours, with a low of $1.2456.

Trader DonAlt, who called XRP’s 700% rally in 2024, said today: “Hard to be bearish here”—the same market setup has appeared again, making it hard to side with the bears.

His reasoning: “Something major happened, but no one followed through by selling.” The last time this happened was the FTX collapse in November 2022, after which Bitcoin climbed from $16,000 to $100,000. Honestly, this is just a probability game.

The funding rate is still +0.01%; open interest has risen 2.2% in six hours. The data points to a short-term bullish outlook for XRP and a bullish outlook for the broader market. The counterpoint: if follow-through selling emerges and XRP drops below $1.2456, this thesis is invalidated.

$BTC moved 2,000 coins—not an exit; Binance changed its withdrawal address

The on-chain alarm sounded again this afternoon: Whale Alert spotted Binance transferring 2,000 BTC, worth about $156 million, to an unknown address.

This time, it wasn't an exit. Binance co-CEO He Yi responded that “the address is a newly generated Binance wallet address.” It has been added to the list of addresses used for its Proof of Reserves (PoR)—an on-chain record meant to prove “your coins are still there.” The company said this is part of the follow-up security measures after the theft, and that withdrawals will use the new address going forward.

Put simply, it's a move, not a getaway. The market isn't rattled either: BTC is now at $78,087, up 1.07% over 24 hours, while the funding rate remains at +0.01%, about the usual level.

Based on the data, this is short-term bullish for $BTC : the potential selling pressure from those 2,000 coins turned out to be a false alarm. On the other hand, that assessment would no longer hold if the new address's inflows and outflows don't match the Proof of Reserves figures.

Next, watch how quickly withdrawals are credited once they resume.

After 8 liquidations, the $ETH long position is back up $70,000

Someone who had been liquidated 8 times and once had only $1.50 left in their account has made a comeback today.

On the afternoon of October 30, Huang Licheng deposited another 250,000 USDC to go long. He has two positions: a 25x long on 2,925 ETH, with unrealized profits exceeding $70,000 and a liquidation price of $2,219.36; and a 10x $HYPE long on 4,250 tokens, with an unrealized loss of $12,000. He also sold two Bored Apes (#950 and #5310) over the counter (OTC).

The market has been fairly kind. ETH is now at $2,266.19, up 1.32% in 24 hours, with a funding rate of +0.0034%—the payment settled every 8 hours is close to zero, and nobody is rushing to add leverage.

The data suggests that $ETH is leaning bullish in the short term: the price is above his cost basis. The downside: honestly, this position is far too leveraged. Its liquidation price of $2,219.36 is just below the current price, and even a brief pullback could trigger a cascade of forced liquidations and crash the market.

23 trading days of continuous outflows set a record, with $ETH institutional demand in retreat

Glassnode said this morning that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since launch, showing "weak demand for ETH from traditional financial investors."

This money was still buying heavily in August and September. ETFs are funds you can buy in a stock account, so 23 straight days of outflows is not just a one-day mood swing.

Put simply, institutional money is pulling back, while the market is still holding up. ETH is now at 2257.84 dollars, up 0.5% over 24 hours; the funding rate is -0.0017%, hovering near zero, and open interest has moved only 0.04% in 6 hours.

From the data, $ETH is short-term bearish and neutral for the broader market: the demand side has bled for 23 straight days, but the price has not fallen, thanks to absorption by on-exchange liquidity. On the other hand, if ETFs turn to net inflows, or outflows narrow significantly, this view will fail. Next up is the 24-hour low of 2234.58 dollars.

Half of the SAFU treasury was moved, and $BTC transferred out 7,499 coins to fill the gap

Late last night, the transfer that had been waited on for 24 hours finally went on-chain.

Arkham on-chain data: At 22:51 Beijing time on October 31, the Binance SAFU fund address transferred out 7,499 $BTC , worth about $581 million at the time. Binance officially confirmed the transfer was completed shortly after. Yi He stated the ratio very plainly on X: "Use 50% of the funds in the SAFU fund address to make up for this loss, and the remaining 50% of the funds will continue to stay in the fund."

The result is that half of the treasury was opened, and half was left.

The market is very calm. BTC is now at $77,555, up 0.79% over 24 hours, funding rate 0.01%, and the money settled every 8 hours for longs and shorts is still the usual amount.

From the repayment progress, this is mildly bullish for $BTC in the short term: real money has gone on-chain, and the stolen gap has been filled to about 90%. On the other hand: if the remaining roughly 10% of smaller coins takes until next week to be replenished, or if SAFU is left with only half and the risk buffer becomes thinner, the judgment will fail. Next, let's watch the market after today's withdrawals resume.

$ETH Staked supply hits a record 43.8 million, while yield falls to just 2.63%

A record 43.8 million ETH is locked in staking; in the same report, staking yield fell to 2.63%.

Bitwise’s Q4 staking report, covered by CoinDesk last night, found that Ethereum’s staked supply reached 35.9% of total supply, with a net inflow of 1.99 million ETH in Q3—the sixth consecutive quarter of net inflows. Solana’s actively staked supply rose to 440.5 million tokens.

But yields are shrinking. ETH staking yield fell from 2.81% in Q2 to 2.63%, with 96.3% coming from token issuance. Solana’s yield fell from 6.38% to around 6%, with nearly 90% likewise coming from issuance. Put simply, most of the yield comes from newly minted coins being distributed to you, not from fee revenue.

ETH is currently at $2,251.33, up 0.73% over 24 hours, with a funding rate of -0.0033%. From a supply-and-demand perspective, the outlook for $ETH is moderately bullish: the share of supply locked up has hit a record, and the circulating supply is shrinking. The downside: this view would be invalidated if a large fund queues up a major unstaking and dumps the tokens onto the market.

$HYPE fell 3.58%, ICE reposted the partnership announcement it had deleted

The official account had just deleted the partnership post this morning, then reposted it unchanged in the afternoon.

ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, reposted its partnership announcement with Trade[XYZ] this afternoon, adding one important line that wasn’t there this morning: it plans to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures to the U.S., with “the relevant arrangements subject to regulatory approval.” The new platform will target retail traders, operate independently of ICE’s institutional futures business, and aim to offer around-the-clock trading in crypto, stocks, commodities, and more.

The market wasn’t swept up in the excitement. HYPE is now at $88.69, down 3.58% over 24 hours and hovering near its 24-hour low of $86.3. Open interest fell 1.35% over six hours, while the funding rate is 0.005%—long traders aren’t adding leverage.

Put simply, the partnership has gone from “officially announced” to “awaiting approval.” The story isn’t dead, but it’s still a long way from becoming reality. The data points to a bearish short-term outlook but a bullish medium-term one for $HYPE : the price is near its low and open interest is declining on one hand, while regulatory approval is still pending on the other. The counterpoint: this view would be invalidated if HYPE climbs back above its 24-hour high of $94, or if there is substantive progress on approval.

He Yi responds to solvency concerns: $BNB 24 hours, down just 0.91%

“Investing is often a test of judgment, logical reasoning, and the ability to extract useful information from complex data.”

This afternoon, Binance co-founder He Yi responded on X to accusations of “self-theft” in connection with the hack. Addressing concerns about solvency, she said that trading volume, fees, user numbers, and BNB quarterly burns are all publicly available.

The market didn’t panic. $BNB is now at $699.52, down just 0.91% in a day. The funding rate is 0.0000%, so neither longs nor shorts are paying; open interest has moved just 0.09% in six hours.

Put simply, if the market really believed an exchange was about to get into trouble, BNB would be the first to fall—and funding rates and open interest wouldn’t be able to hide it. None of the three has moved so far.

The data suggests the concerns haven’t yet turned into selling pressure. BNB’s short-term outlook is bullish, with limited impact on the broader market. On the flip side, if BNB falls below today’s low of $693.48, that would signal that fear is being priced in and invalidate this view. The key is whether this level holds.

Falling to $76,000, $BTC hopes of a new high fade amid expert disagreement

In a debate published early this morning, the man who runs a Bitcoin fund said he doesn’t own a single coin.

Charles Edwards is the founder of Capriole Investments. Minutes after Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion, he posted: “how can any other exchange be trusted?” Eighty minutes later, he added: “I own no Bitcoin.”

His reasoning: the attack was ahead of security patches, Bitcoin has no widely accepted post-quantum roadmap, and a new high is only getting further out of reach.

The rebuttal came quickly. Power Law physicist Santostasi put it plainly: “Bitcoin never failed”—it was exchanges and hardware wallets that had problems, not the protocol. Cowen pointed to the cycle: exchange hacks are par for the course in the fourth quarter of a midterm election year.

Put simply, the same hack is being read as three different market signals. The data suggests $BTC is bearish in the short term and neutral for the broader market: the 24-hour low was $76,270, and the rebound failed to recover lost ground. The counterpoint: that view is invalidated if Bitcoin holds and rebounds around $76,000, or if Core publishes a post-quantum roadmap. Next, watch the old support level at $80,000.

A $6.4 billion theft, but BTC fell just 3%—$BTC held up better than in 2018

Two days after the largest crypto theft in history, BTC hasn’t collapsed. Chainalysis and TRM Labs estimate the losses at around $6.4 billion. Yesterday, BTC briefly touched around $76,400—about 6% below its level after the Fed decision—and fell roughly 3% in a day.

The episode in March 2018 played out in minutes: Binance was attacked (but lost no funds), and BTC plunged from $10,740 to $9,690 in a few minutes, a drop of nearly 11%. The total crypto market cap was $400 billion then; today it’s around $2.6 trillion, 6.5 times larger.

The more structural difference is spot ETFs (funds that can be bought through a stock brokerage account): these products now hold around 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of the circulating supply. Those holdings are in the hands of long-term investors, not on exchanges. As the original put it, “panic doesn't hit markets the same way anymore.”

The data suggests $BTC is neutral to slightly bullish in the short term, and neutral on the broader market: prices fell, but didn’t collapse—in other words, buyers are still stepping in. The risk: if ETFs see sustained outflows, or the stolen assets are dumped onto the market on a large scale, the rationale for this resilience falls apart. Next, watch the daily ETF flows.

Dropped below $77,000, then bounced back; $BTC is waiting for the midterm elections

On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 before quickly recovering. CoinShares characterized this as “resilience” in its market report yesterday, saying: Bitcoin “has neither broken out to the upside nor seen a sharp decline; its relative ability to hold up is one of the more positive signals in the current market.”

The backdrop: the Fed kept interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. Chair Warsh said the effects of the September rate hikes were starting to show, but gave no indication that the tightening cycle was over. Inflation is still here: U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 3.7% year over year in September, while the latest survey of businesses’ selling prices showed the fastest increase since August 2022. Overall, positioning is defensive and risk appetite is limited.

The data point to a short-term neutral-to-bullish outlook for $BTC : the current price is $77,485.7, down 4.83% over 24 hours, while the funding rate is +0.01%, unchanged from usual—long traders aren’t rushing to add leverage. On the other hand, if inflation continues to accelerate and rate expectations climb further, the case for relative resilience could break down. Next, watch the 24-hour low of $76,444 and fund flows ahead of the midterm elections.

Down $37.05 million over a year and a half, he just deposited another $250,000 to go long on $ETH

His ETH long was completely liquidated this morning, but he was back by the afternoon. On-chain analyst Ember noted: “Huang Licheng deposited another 250,000 USDC this afternoon to go long.” His combined long positions in $HYPE , ETH, and BTC are now worth about $5.88 million.

He’s taking a big risk. The liquidation price on his ETH position was $2,161, just $86 below the market price at the time—dangerously close to liquidation. This address has traded on Hyperliquid for a year and a half, with $15.86 billion in trading volume and cumulative losses of about $37.05 million. Put simply, he’s one of the most famous contrarian indicators in the market.

The market isn’t cooperating, either. ETH is currently at $2,230.01, down 4.02% in 24 hours, with a low of $2,172.85. The funding rate is -0.0024%. With a negative funding rate, longs actually get paid every 8 hours, suggesting that shorts aren’t having it all their own way.

The data points to a short-term bearish outlook for ETH, and a neutral-to-bearish one relative to the broader market: a large trader adding to longs against the trend won’t change it; it just adds a “someone is buying the dip” narrative to the decline. This view would be invalidated if ETH reclaims its 24-hour high of $2,378.69. For now, watch whether it can hold the low of $2,172.85.

Hackers move $1 billion worth of ETH, with $ETH selling pressure hanging overhead

Another major on-chain move today. Onchain Lens reported that the hacker group involved in the alleged $5.8 billion Binance theft is “transferring over $1 billion worth of ETH to new wallets,” possibly preparing to launder it through mixers like Tornado. Mixers are on-chain tools that combine funds from different sources, making them harder to trace.

The market has already reacted: ETH is currently at $2,245.98, down 3.0% over 24 hours, with a low of $2,172.85. The funding rate is +0.0015%, so leverage remains orderly. Open interest is also up 0.99% over the past six hours, suggesting some traders are buying into the dip.

The data points to a short-term bearish outlook for $ETH and a bearish view of the broader market: what’s hanging overhead isn’t the fundamentals, but the possibility that these coins could hit the market at any moment. As long as the hackers are still moving funds around, the threat of selling pressure remains.

The counterpoint: if most of this ETH is recovered or frozen, expectations of selling pressure will vanish, invalidating this view. Next, watch the progress of the mixing and the $2,172.85 low.

$AAVE paused all lending markets, and prices first fell 12.22%

Aave's first official statement was, "We have been informed of reports of a potential incident involving Binance-linked wallets." In the early hours of today, as a precautionary measure, all DAO-operated V3 and V4 markets were frozen.

Frozen does not mean something has gone wrong: Aave contracts were not affected, and lending positions remain overcollateralized. The change is the suspension of new deposits and borrowing, while users can still withdraw funds and repay existing positions. In plain terms, the entrance is closed while the exit remains open, to guard against a panic run. In ChainCatcher's report, CZ said the actual loss may have slightly exceeded $1 billion and that it would be fully covered.

Looking at the data, $AAVE is short-term bearish and mildly bearish on the broader market: the current price is $117.86, down 12.22% over 24 hours, the low is $115.0, and the funding rate of +0.0046% is still near the benchmark, with leverage not out of control. On the flip side: if the market is unfrozen soon and deposits return, it means this was only a defensive pause, and the bearish view would be invalid.

Next, watch when V3 and V4 resume deposits and withdrawals.

$44 billion Treasury auction, $BTC lost one downside factor

4.894%. Early this morning, the $44 billion auction of 7-year U.S. Treasuries was settled, with the winning yield landing here, about 19 basis points below the 5.085% from the September 24 auction. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.46, basically in line with the 12-month average of 2.48 — the funds that wanted to buy haven’t decreased, and the price is a bit cheaper too.

7-year Treasuries are the U.S. government’s medium-term borrowing, and they serve as a pricing reference for mortgages and corporate financing. Before the auction, the market was still worried that yields would push higher; the original text calls this a “tightening monetary policy environment,” but instead it eased off a bit.

$BTC is currently around $79,827.6, down 1.57% over 24 hours; the funding rate of +0.0053% is unchanged from normal, so longs are not rushing to add leverage. From the data, this is neutral to mildly bullish for BTC in the short term, and neutral for the broader market. In any case, the rates side didn’t add trouble; the weakness is still in the chart itself.

On the flip side: if upcoming inflation data pushes yields back above 5%, this view fails. Next, watch whether the 24-hour low of 79666.9 holds.

zkLink contracts under ongoing attack; a 20% bounty offered on $ETH

Today, zkLink officially confirmed that the core contracts of its Layer 3 network, zkLink Nova, on Ethereum and Optimism are under ongoing attack. Blockaid detected that the attacker used a public relayer to submit forged transaction batch records to Ethereum, then drained funds from the contracts.

The project’s offer: return the funds and they’ll “take no further action,” plus a 20% white-hat bounty. Put simply, these are the best terms they can offer after a theft.

The data shows that $ETH is bearish in the short term, with limited impact on the broader market. ETH is currently at $2,320, down 0.77% over 24 hours. Its funding rate is a normal +0.0074%, and leverage is stable. But every contract attack tends to weigh on sentiment toward altcoins.

On the other hand, if the attacker does return the funds and the losses are small, sentiment could recover quickly, invalidating the bearish outlook.

Next, watch for the official loss amount and whether the $2,292 low holds.

Morpho has caught up to $7.5 billion, leaving $AAVE with a lead of just $400 million

A $400 million gap. The race for the top spot in on-chain lending is especially tight today: Morpho Blue has $7.5 billion in stablecoin deposits, compared with $7.9 billion for Aave V3.

Deposits are stablecoins users put into protocols for borrowers to borrow. As of October 25, the total across 41 protocols and 31 chains was $24 billion. Aave V3 accounted for 36.1%, Morpho for 31.6%, and the two together for 67.7%—the remaining 39 protocols split the other third.

Morpho is catching up quickly thanks to its different structure: Aave uses large pools where assets are mixed together; Morpho Blue uses isolated markets, with each loan backed by just one type of collateral, so risk does not spill over. It attracted about $304 million more last week, and its utilization rate (the share of deposits that has been borrowed) has stayed between 89% and 93% over the long term.

Based on the data, the short-term outlook for $AAVE is neutral to bearish, and the broader market outlook is neutral: deposits are shifting toward its competitor. In any case, AAVE is trading around $130.34, down 4.15% over 24 hours, with a funding rate of +0.0050%.

On the other hand, by another total-value-locked metric, Morpho has only about $5.32 billion versus roughly $7.85 billion for Aave, so it depends on which metric you use. If Aave wins deposits back, this assessment no longer holds. Next, watch weekly deposit growth.

Democrats have a 64% chance of winning the Senate; $BTC legislative winds may shift

Today, let’s look at an external factor: the U.S. midterm election results are due next week, and control of Congress could change hands.

On prediction market Kalshi, the odds of Democrats winning the Senate are 64%, and the odds of winning the House are 90%. Over the past two years, a Republican-led Congress passed the stablecoin bill GENIUS Act. The broader Clarity Act passed the House in 2025 but has been stalled in the Senate ever since.

The difference lies in the agenda-setting power held by committee chairs. If Democrats retake the Senate, Elizabeth Warren will become chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Wintermute policy chief Ron Hammond expects her to “make active use of subpoena powers” and scrutinize recently approved bank charters.

Lindsay Fraser, chief policy officer at the Blockchain Association, put it this way: “Congressional control may change, but the need for clear crypto rules will not.”

Based on the data, this is short-term bearish for $BTC and bearish for the broader market: regulation could shift from advancing legislation to revisiting past decisions, dampening risk appetite. Put simply, clear rules attract patient capital, while intense scrutiny drives capital away.

The caveat: Kalshi’s figures are only probabilities. If Republicans hold the Senate, or if Democrats take office and prioritize their own crypto bill, this bearish outlook will no longer hold. Next, watch the election results and who is chosen to chair the committee.

$150 million worth of $BTC can't be withdrawn, and the stock promptly halved

“Unable to complete the withdrawal”—the funds couldn't be withdrawn.

On Monday, Nasdaq-listed Datavault AI used that English phrase in an 8-K filing with the SEC: it had applied in June to transfer coins from the Biconomy exchange to an external wallet, but the transfer still hadn't gone through by the time of the disclosure. On Tuesday, its stock fell 49.55%, closing at $0.067.

The coins came from a $150 million stock-for-crypto deal: pharmaceutical company Scilex used 1,328.43 BTC to buy shares, and the company later sold 491.431 BTC back in exchange for $40.5 million in cash. The company now says those coins shouldn't have been counted as its digital assets in the first place. It will restate four financial reports, write down as much as $92.2 million in assets on its books as of the end of 2025, and is reassessing whether it can continue operating.

The data suggests this has had almost no impact on the price of $BTC itself (currently $81,103.50, up 0.41% over 24 hours), but is bearish for publicly listed companies that “buy coins as reserves”: if the coins can't be withdrawn, their book value isn't liquid. The counterpoint: if an investigation finds that the exchange misappropriated customer assets, panic could spread to the broader market, invalidating this assessment.