Yesterday, everyone saw the document issued by the 13 departments. Today, I want to reiterate the specific scope of impact and individuals.
First, the targets of the crackdown are OTC merchants and exchangers; the meeting clearly emphasized focusing on 'capital flows'.
Secondly, it involves 'technology and developers'. Especially if what you develop is illegal stuff like anonymous wallets, mixers, etc., these things are illegal not just domestically but even abroad. Such situations may be recognized as 'aiding and abetting crimes'. Other WEB3 development also requires very cautious judgment.
Project operators and promoters, as well as their domestic agents/BD personnel, theoretically are defined as illegal financial activities according to the documents.
Additionally, KOLs and content creators in the self-media industry will undergo a new round of keyword cleansing. This includes private domain chats that will also be affected.
Finally, for ordinary retail investors and speculators (jiucai), the channels have narrowed, legal protection is zero, theoretically non-compliant but not illegal.
Lastly, I believe this regulation will indirectly encourage some petty theft and fraud behaviors because many of my friends have encountered similar situations before, being deceived in over-the-counter trades or group scams, and when reporting to the police, the outcome is always the same. You are using virtual currency not recognized by the state, and since it is not recognized, there is no fraud. Since it is not fraud, then it cannot be filed. All losses are borne by yourself. Even if you already know who the scammer is, there will be no accountability pursued because there is no appropriate legal basis.
This is my interpretation of the current state of the industry. In the future, I hope the entire industry becomes more standardized and that we can have new opportunities.
Basically, trading cryptocurrencies generally leads to losing everything, especially for those who believe in such foolish articles๐
ไธ่ฝฌ็ผๅฐฑ้ฟๅคง
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China's countermeasures have taken effect, yet they have revealed a shocking secret to Japan! Japanese media urgently calls out: '70% of global mature process orders are continuously flowing to Chinese factories, with prices so low that we question our existence!' The U.S. treats EUV lithography machines like 'nuclear bombs', while China unexpectedly strikes back with 28-nanometer 'bricks'! Everyone knows that the U.S. has been ramping up its blockade since 2018, first by listing companies, then tightly restricting EUV lithography machines and EDA design software, even dragging the Netherlands and Japan into restrictions, thinking this would cut off China's semiconductor path. But they forgot that the semiconductor industry isn't just about cutting-edge 3nm and 2nm; the 28nm 'golden node' is the real essential market, just like household necessities that seem ordinary but are indispensable. Whether it's the battery management systems of electric vehicles, RF chips for mobile phones, or control modules for industrial equipment, as well as core components for 5G base stations, all rely on 28nm chips. The global annual demand for such chips exceeds 100 billion units, which represents a substantial market. The U.S. is blocking us from accessing advanced processes, which conveniently forces us to focus on mature processes, inadvertently accelerating our progress in essential sectors. China has long recognized this trend and hasn't let the U.S. blockade disrupt our rhythm; instead, we have proactively laid out our own industrial chain. Companies like SMIC and Huahong are joining forces to steadily ramp up 28nm production capacity. By 2024, SMIC is expected to surpass UMC and GlobalFoundries, becoming the world's second-largest wafer foundry, with an annual shipment volume exceeding 8 million wafers. Their machines operate at full capacity every day, maintaining a utilization rate of over 85%, while Huahong is even more exaggerated, breaking through 100% and struggling to meet order demands even at overcapacity. This isn't coming from thin air; our self-sufficient industrial chain gives us the greatest confidence. The long crystal furnace from North China has half the price of imported ones, and repairs don't require a half-year wait, with efficiency maximized; previously imported photoresists and specialty gases can now be produced domestically, drastically lowering costs. Japanese institutions have calculated that our labor costs are 11% lower than those in Taiwan, and industrial electricity prices are only a few cents per kilowatt-hour, over half cheaper than overseas. Coupled with a complete supporting industrial chain, our cost advantage is unbeatable. It's not that we deliberately underprice; it's that we have the capability to control costs, allowing customers to spend less to buy usable, high-quality chips. The global market isn't foolish; whoever has high cost-performance products and stable delivery will attract orders. Currently, 80% of global PCs and over 60% of new energy vehicles are produced in China. With such substantial terminal demand, our wafer fabs can supply nearby, making it both fast and worry-free for foreign customers, so how could they not choose us? Previously, Japan and South Korea had some advantages in mature processes, but they have been overly focused on advanced processes in recent years. Japan teamed up with TSMC to build a 3nm factory and poured money into local companies for 2nm trial production, putting all their eggs in one basket and completely losing the scale effect. By the time they realize that mature processes are the real cash cow, the market has long been captured by us. The Japanese media are hopping mad, calling for orders to be funneled to China, with prices so low they can't comprehend it. But who can they blame? They should blame themselves for blindly following the U.S. and ignoring the true market demand, and even more for lacking a complete local industrial chain. They lack sufficient equipment and support for production, leaving them helpless as orders slip away. Our countermeasures have never been blindly aggressive but rather precise strikes. The U.S. restricts our advanced technology, so we strengthen our capabilities in mature processes; when they limit equipment exports, we develop domestic equipment ourselves. Now, the rate of domestic semiconductor equipment has risen to 21%, and we aim for 50% by the end of the year, breaking through previously restricted links one by one. Just like the equipment from North China and the EDA software from New Kylin, the localization of these critical tools allows us to control the entire process from chip design to manufacturing, naturally lowering costs and enhancing competitiveness. Japanese semiconductor equipment companies are feeling the pinch; 30% of their export market is in China. By following the U.S. in implementing restrictions, they end up harming themselves, with fewer orders and reduced revenues, watching as Chinese companies steadily seize market share. The U.S. initially aimed to control us with the EUV 'nuclear bomb', but they didn't account for the fact that Moore's Law is nearing its end. Each generation shrink in advanced processes raises costs by 70%, with a high-NA EUV machine costing 400 million euros and exposure times tripling, making the cost-performance ratio absurdly low. TSMC and Samsung are no longer obsessed with shrinking die sizes; instead, they focus on stacking and heterogeneous integration, meaning advanced processes are no longer the only path forward. Our 28nm chips balance performance, power consumption, and cost perfectly, meeting the essential needs of automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics without being affected by EUV restrictions. Leveraging DUV multi-patterning technology, we can even produce small batches of 5nm chips, as demonstrated by the chips used in Huawei's new smartphones, achieving performance that rivals Qualcomm's Snapdragon. This is our wisdomโnot getting caught in the rules set by others but carving out our own path, turning 'bricks' into 'sharp weapons'. The global trend is already very clear; the demand for mature processes is still rising while China's production capacity is expanding rapidly. From 2024 to 2027, China's 12-inch mature process capacity will increase by 27% annually, while other regions combined will only grow by 3.6%. This gap is like a rocket compared to riding a bicycle. China has proven with 28nm that no matter how others try to strangle us, as long as we find the right direction and unite our forces, thereโs no situation we canโt break through. Global orders are flowing to China, with price advantages; this is the market's choice, a testament to the strength of China's industrial chain, and a hard-core result of China's countermeasures. The U.S.'s 'nuclear bomb' has turned into a dud, while China's 'bricks' have become sharp weapons. This is how satisfying it is, how uplifting it is! Moving forward, our self-sufficient industrial chain will only grow stronger, and those countries that wish to strangle us will ultimately end up shooting themselves in the foot!
The finances are out of money, changing from private to public-private partnership๐
็ดซๅซฃwb3
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Yunnan anti-drug, Beijing anti-drug, Tianjin anti-drug, Jiangxi anti-drug, Guangxi anti-drug and other official accounts have all been canceled... What is the reason for this? [Question]
Purchased 1.5 million tons of soybeans, stopped the 310 investigation, and postponed rare earth control by one year. Use your brain more.
Cryptoๅคฉๆบๅญ
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The recent drop should have nothing to do with this. This was sent at 9 o'clock. It should be related to the end of the China-US talks, and thereโs a high probability that they did not reach an agreement, which led to the market decline! #ๅ ๅฏๅธๅบๅ่ฐ $BTC
Patriotism means enjoying the iron fist of socialism๐
Crypto-็ฑๅธๆฏๅฆ
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Selling oil can easily land you in jail!
The key point is that you are profiting from it! So when students from BTB Investment Research ask me to buy and sell oil, or to act as an intermediary for mutual buying and selling (if someone profits, there will be someone wanting to sell oil or someone just wanting to buy), I will not profit from the price difference.
All the money from the oil goes to me, and then I make the payment and transfer the oil to the other party. Sometimes it's a few tens of millions worth of oil, sometimes it's hundreds of thousands or even millions of oil.
Not long ago, someone in Chongqing was also caught and sentenced for buying and selling oil, officially charged with tax evasion. Why is it different from Beijing? Because they had a company, so it's tax evasion, while if itโs an individual, they can also label you as tax evasion, personal income tax, you know!
In any case, they will catch you; any excuse can be found in the criminal law.
The king's dictatorship still allows parades, let's try it in China ๐คฃ
Crypto-็ฑๅธๆฏๅฆ
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Bearish
I really want to curse that little yellow hair sb! No wonder everyone doesn't know you, even shouting about tariffs has no market reaction!
Look at what this guy has done!
More than 7 million people are marching! The slogan is we don't want a king, because Europe overthrew the feudal monarchy system, and America did the same back then. Now Trump controls everything, wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, wants to lay off workers, wants to suppress opponents, wants to harvest leeks in the crypto circle, wants to pressure globally, and so on..... Forget it, can't finish talking, everyone is going to protest, he isn't thinking about how to solve it. He ran to social media to post an AI video!
I went to take a look, couldn't download it, just put a few pictures, it's just little yellow hair flying a plane, then airdropping โ็ฑณ็ฐๅ ฑโ to the crowd, is this tmd still a president! Kao!
Trump-related projects are making money, I donโt touch them, thereโs no bottom line, you might get cut off at any time. You guys go, Iโll watch the show.
50 million is just a drop in the bucket for banks; as long as the basic debt is not an issue, customers will not withdraw collectively, it's just a minor crisis.
Crypto-็ฑๅธๆฏๅฆ
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If you see this message and feel like it's over, that a storm is coming! That there will be a big drop!
Maybe you haven't experienced the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the crypto circle back then, which directly shocked the Federal Reserve, leading to a reduction in the balance sheet period and an expansion of the balance sheet to save the banks.
Because I have experienced it, I feel that the opportunity is slowly coming!
This time it is 50 million, back then the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was 22 billion!
It's normal for a shutdown; there were several months of shutdown during the Clinton administration. This time, the Democrats want to stir things up, asking for free healthcare for illegal immigrants, or they won't support the budget, leading to a government shutdown.
่ฅ็ซ
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I really can't believe it. The little yellow hair always says the economy is very good, unprecedentedly good. It's so good that the government has come to a standstill, what is he doing?
Why does it have a vibe of Empress Dowager Cixi? From the prosperity of 1899 to the escape to Xi'an in 1900, just a few months apart.
This is too magical, right?
In the first half of the year, they were still saying the economy was incredibly good, and in the blink of an eye, it turned 180 degrees to having no money to maintain, and the government has come to a standstill.
It's of no use; Brazil's annual soybean production cannot meet China's demand, so in the end, Brazil imports from the United States and then re-exports to China.
Crypto-็ฑๅธๆฏๅฆ
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Next, it seems that something big is coming. On September 14, China and the United States will hold the fourth round of trade negotiations in Spain.
Originally, I was going to talk about this during Saturday's live broadcast, but I completely forgot!
As the number of negotiations increases, it is clear that the United States is losing its advantage. At first, the whole world was shocked, but now China is resolutely refusing to yield. If you want to fight, I will fight you back and see who can outlast whom. China's bottom line is the rules of the WTO.
China's control over rare earths will lead to an immediate halt in soybean imports from the United States, instead sourcing from Brazil. Many of Trump's staunch supporters are farmers who grow soybeans (matured in September). If China stops buying, Trump's midterm elections will be greatly affected. Representatives have already urged Trump to request that China import U.S. soybeans, and they are also no longer buying sorghum from the U.S., opting for Brazil instead.
After the 93 military parade, the international situation has been quietly changing. A few days ago, I watched a video by the curator (Taiwan), which has made many compatriots increasingly aware.
If China gains the upper hand in this negotiation, it won't be a good influence on the cryptocurrency market, because the U.S. supports cryptocurrency while China does not. If the U.S. gains the upper hand and China starts causing trouble, it will also be detrimental to cryptocurrency! If a long-term solution that satisfies everyone can be achieved, it should be positive.
Although the market previously expected altcoins to enter a period of prosperity, Bitcoin's dominance in this cycle is rising, which typically means that smaller altcoins will face difficulties.
Despite the broader altcoin market facing pressure from BTC dominance, the leading altcoin Ethereum still has an opportunity to turn the tide.
August will be a decisive month for Ethereum. If Ethereum can break through $4,000 quickly, it may trigger a strong rebound before the end of the year.
If it fails to break this resistance, the price may enter a phase of "slow decline," likely finding support in September and forming higher lows before attempting the next significant upward move.
While we all believe Ethereum will reach an all-time high this year, we must also acknowledge that it won't be a straight or easy path.
Ethereum is currently facing strong resistance around $3,950, failing to break through this resistance in recent days. This resistance has caused the price to retreat to key support levels.
Currently, Ethereum is testing the range of $3,500-$3,600; if the daily close falls below $3,500, it may further drop towards $3,200-$3,300.
Mainstream counterfeit rebound, bold to buy on dips in batches
ไบๅณๅญ
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The US stock market fell on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that a rate cut in September is far from certain, disappointing investors who had hoped for a more decisive shift towards looser monetary policy from the Fed. The Dow dropped 0.4%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq barely rose by 0.1%.
Personally, I feel that Powell is starting to buckle under pressure and is beginning to bluff. Now that BTC is pulling back and altcoins are also pulling back, it's a good time to boldly accumulate in batches. The August data is sure to be positive. If you don't get in now, are you going to wait for the rate cut in September, when the market skyrockets, and then sell to you at a peak?
After eight rounds of negotiations, the US and Japan finally reached a trade agreement. Japan accepted a 15% tax rate, opened its automotive and rice markets, and reduced the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15%. Trump is indeed a skilled businessman, Taking the best and leaving the rest. Almost all countries will eventually have to pay taxes. This wave of tariff policies has been a big win. The third economy, after softening, will have little impact on the overall financial market. The next step for BTC to surge should be closely related to the genius bill, Trump's debt reduction methods will need to be implemented step by step. As long as BTC surges, the crypto market will go crazy, attracting more retail investors, increasing the demand for USDT and USDC, and indirectly buying more medium to long-term government bonds. In this recent phase, it's still a good time to buy on dips. The primary stance is to be bullish. Recently turned bullish, always calling for more, will I get scolded again in a couple of days? $BTC
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