老衲也略懂一些拳脚

During this period, I have been pondering a question in front of the Buddha: Is the Kondratiev wave an inevitability of history... Is there someone who can help me understand this, for a fee? I can assist in booking international flights, round trip business class.

I have been pondering algorithmic stablecoins lately. Is there anyone knowledgeable who can discuss which ones can be deconstructed?

ETH: The old monk is on vacation for two weeks, and the long positions that were previously closed have all encountered some discounts. I discovered yesterday afternoon that it was crashing, probably due to some liquidity issue somewhere. I placed some buy orders at 3200 and 3000, but they didn't get filled. The market is slowly recovering now, but it's still unclear. Let's see if the oversold rebound can stabilize; I will take a more cautious approach and reassess in two weeks...

BTC: The market manipulation has started again, but this time it feels very unconfident and weak. Recently, I've had a bad intuition, not only about the cryptocurrency market but also about the US stock market, which is quite unsettling. I've decided to clear all long positions and keep the short positions to observe for two weeks...

BTC: Yesterday when this thing surged, many strange coins showed significant rises and falls, indicating that market funds seem to be somewhat tight, and the follow-up was not very successful. In the next couple of days, we need to see if the 111000 line can hold. If it holds, we can continue to pull, but if it doesn't hold, we can't be very optimistic...

BTC: The recent market is quite friendly, there are opportunities to make money whether going long or short...

BTC: The first phase of the old monk's accumulation has been completed, the price is relatively reasonable, and results are expected in the next couple of days. The old monk's short position in BTC is a strategic short, currently with a very small position, as several conditions are not yet sufficiently met, it is considered a trial position. The shorting period is expected to be long, and the potential is not small, so there is no rush. Now let's talk about the company MSTR; these guys took advantage of the premium in the US stock market to buy a lot, claiming they won't sell, but in reality, they can't sell. However, this story is almost at its end. The company's owner and some core executives have long since made enough money by reducing their stock holdings, and the current operations are merely to extract the last remaining value. The old monk originally intended to short their stock, but the US stock market is quite troublesome; with even a slightly larger position, the SEC starts asking questions, which is quite annoying. The likely outcome for this company is either being acquired or going bankrupt, so if the position can be released this time, the old monk will continue to short until the end of the MSTR story.

BTC: Just increase your position as planned, a very good price was given...

BTC: Doing this on the weekend is quite interesting. I don't have much confidence; it seems there is some capital playing tricks, taking advantage of the shallow weekend market to sneak in. I plan to short once in the range of 112000-114000 and see the hidden cards...

Isn't it quite rare for a sudden surge on the weekend?

ETH: Rising amidst hesitation is a very ideal state; isn't that what the textbooks say...

ETH: The old monk mentioned yesterday that he is looking for a rebound to the 4200-4300 range. The view hasn't changed. However, there may be some back-and-forth in between, so be mentally prepared. It's like fishing; even when you catch something, you still have to pull it a bit. Most things in the world don't happen overnight; there tends to be a lot of back-and-forth. Having good skills also requires a good mindset; that is what makes a qualified fisherman, don't you think...

ETH: Overall, it still doesn't look very strong. This wave of ETH has seen me profit slightly after going long all the way down, but that's a matter of trading technique and not worth mentioning. In summary, there are issues with entering long positions. After entering at 4200 last wave and reaching around 4600, the returns were decent. This time it started at 4400 and has been a slow march upwards; looking back, it seems I entered too early. Just a reminder, I have a short position in BTC, and the position size is quite small, so I can keep adding to my position without pressure. Everyone else, please don't follow blindly. I am relatively bearish on the price ratio of these two; I'll discuss the specific logic when I have the time, but it might not be accurate. Additionally, this trading cycle could be quite long, and it's not unusual to observe for a year and a half. I also welcome any advice from those who understand the field...

ETH: This time, the old monk estimates that the rebound can reach around 4200 to 4300. There may be some fluctuations in between, but these fluctuations are relatively easy to manage, so the temporary danger period has passed, and controlling the pace is all that is needed... Additionally, recently there are fewer people in the square saying they feel like they are walking on thin ice. The old monk particularly likes these friends, bearing a position with an incredibly high leverage, waving their arms like a turtle fist, while muttering: My life feels like walking on thin ice... especially joyful 😂

ETH: The short-term sentiment has been released, now stay calm. I made two small counterattacks, with a little bit of gain. Now just wait for the K line to adjust, expecting to hit a home run in the next couple of days...

ETH: Should I add some positions around 4000? I will try to buy a little to see, but I'm not very confident, just consider it a casual attempt...

ETH: The old monk is not very optimistic about this asset recently. There are no hot topics for speculation in the short term, and contract funds are also withdrawing. The daily K-line is being clearly suppressed. The old monk gradually bought in around 4400, with some small adjustments in between, not worth mentioning, overall making a slight profit. Currently, I still hold a small position, just as a barometer. The short-term pace of increasing positions will be very slow, looking for opportunities to counterattack. The old monk is relatively bearish on BTC, and the observation period is quite long. Currently, there are a few short positions, not worth mentioning. It's unclear when a significant short position can be established; it depends on the opportunity. Just go with the flow.

Well, it seems like that's how the market is...

ETH: The old monk reduced his position around 4200, these two assets are much weaker than expected, and the pace of increasing positions will slow down as well. Let's observe for now.

A few more words: I am very opposed to high leverage trading. Under such ridiculous volatility, high leverage has actually deviated from the realm of investment and is more akin to a lottery. Many people feel that making money is easy after multiplying their gains several times during favorable conditions; in fact, that is merely survivor bias under high volatility, just illusory profits without foundation. Gains and losses come from the same source; what comes will go. So, is high leverage something that must never be used? Twenty years ago, I saw a top entrepreneur in the domestic stock market sign a life-and-death contract. That year, the entrepreneur probably made two billion. Later, the entrepreneur explained to us why they dared to sign the life-and-death contract and how to place bets in life. Understanding that kind of opportunity requires luck and cannot be explained in just a few sentences. Maybe I will elaborate on it when I'm bored someday...