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Yesterday when CZ opened his mouth and the BSC chain started, $KOMA and $GIGGLE immediately began rushing upward in a scramble. Today is even more intense. But I think this is basically a one-wave move—once the momentum is over, it dissipates.

The current price could be considered for a small-position or low-leverage short, betting on a pullback after the sentiment cools down. Remember: keep it to a small position—don’t get carried away.

The shitcoin on Robinhood is starting to feel more and more like the vibe of the mainnet ETH chain back then.

Yesterday it was circling around @Matt_Furie’s $HOODRAT, and today it switched to $FRONG, the one Haydenzadams has been hyping. It’s pretty clear that the shitcoin narrative is starting to branch out—it’s no longer obsessing over Robinhood chain’s ecosystem itself. More and more old IPs and old projects are moving toward Robinhood.

But reusing old IPs on a new chain and getting re-hyped is essentially a second-hand play, and it’s not easy. The good news is that Robinhood chain’s heat is still online—many pools can still refresh a few million in ATH. That’s already quite formidable.

Overall, Robinhood chain’s fund-out rate is still far higher than other chains. Even though there are plenty of one-wave-only opportunities, the ceiling is high and the options are fun, making it still the best chain for shitcoins right now.

1️⃣ Market Snapshot

In the past 24 hours, $243 million was liquidated—$143 million from longs and less than $100 million from shorts. The breakout-chasers on short-term longs have been shaken out again. The U.S. Dollar Index fell below 101, gold broke through $4,100, and oil is still hovering around $84–$85. The geopolitical premium hasn’t faded.

Although BTC has reclaimed $65,000 and is up more than 10% in July, volume hasn’t kept up. Whether it can hold its ground still needs observation.

2️⃣ The macro set has been played—what is the market waiting for?

With the FOMC’s three dissenting votes plus cooling PCE inflation, everything that should’ve been priced in has been priced in. But the market is as quiet as the calm before a storm. Three things are on the table at the same time:

3️⃣ Three major variables today

① $9.6 billion in options expire today: This is the largest options expiry in 2026, with a notional value of $9.6 billion—$7.5 billion in calls and $2.1 billion in puts. The $33 billion call spread concentrated in the 70,000–72,000 range will most likely settle to zero given the current price around 65,000. Only 5.46% of call options are in the money, while 18.29% of put options are in the money. 43.6% of total gamma needs to be reset; after market makers unwind hedged positions, the suppressed volatility may be released in a concentrated way.

② The Iran–Israel ceasefire is “cold” after 48 hours: The ceasefire ended on July 26. Oil then plunged 16% over three days. On July 29, Iran directly launched missiles at U.S. military bases in Jordan, the ceasefire was broken, and WTI rebounded more than 5%. The geopolitical premium in oil is not so easy to unwind. Inflation expectations are tied to oil prices, and the logic behind Fed rate cuts is being priced in reverse due to an energy shock.

③ Large stablecoin moves: About $500 million USDT moved from Binance’s hot wallet to Tether Treasury. The market sees it as a technical network switch—not liquidity withdrawal—and BTC’s reaction has been calm.

4️⃣ Liquidation risk

If BTC falls below 61,524, the liquidation pressure from cumulative long positions on major mainstream CEXs would reach $1.325 billion. If BTC breaks above 67,712, the liquidation pressure from shorts would reach $1.071 billion. Both sides are powder kegs—once the direction becomes clear, volatility will be very intense.

Ethereum is still wandering around in a wedge, but the price has stayed pressed against the support and hasn’t broken down, which suggests that support is fairly solid. As long as it holds, the wedge structure could potentially fail. On the upside, watch the 2000 resistance line—that’s the top edge of the wedge. If price breaks above it, it could evolve into an upward continuation.

The long position opened at 1880 last night was stopped out at breakeven after being pushed down; the low wick pin just happened to sweep it. On the smaller timeframes, wait for a pullback—still, the support zone is 1870-1850. As long as this area doesn’t break, the risk-reward for going long remains quite good. $ETH

This Federal Reserve interest rate decision saw nine votes in favor with no change, while three votes opposed and called for a rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that there are three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction. On paper, rates were not raised, but the tone is very hawkish—an increase has already been put on the agenda.

The BTC market reaction was also very direct: it surged briefly to 64,745, then pulled back to around 63,500. It is currently consolidating and building momentum near 63,750, the 0.618 level. Bearish volume has been continuously releasing, and the rebounds from bulls have clearly lacked strength. The pattern of the high followed by a drop has basically been confirmed, and the daily volume-price divergence is still present.

After the news is priced in, the short-term bias is bearish, but it won’t slide smoothly. First look at 62,500, then 61,500. Near-term support is 63,100–63,300, and resistance is 63,800–64,000.

In terms of strategy: the Fed’s “cautious in public, hawkish in private” stance is favorable for bears, but those big “whales” have been continuously accumulating, making it difficult for both bulls and bears to get a clear move.

If 63,100–63,300 sees increased volume with a long lower shadow and then holds steady, you can take a small long position, targeting 64,000–64,500. If the rebound reaches 63,800–64,000 and fails there, then go short, targeting 62,500–63,000. In the short term, it’s still a narrow-range consolidation; in the medium term, it’s a wide-range consolidation pattern. $BTC

Didn’t expect that, did you? Apple actually overtook Nvidia and is back on top as the world’s most valuable company.

What’s even more painful is that Apple isn’t turning things around with AI. It’s because it simply can’t pull it off—every year it shells out $1 billion to rent Google’s Gemini to keep up appearances. Siri is so bad that consumers have sued $AAPL. After lying low in the AI arena for years, it ended up becoming the champion.

Turns out doing nothing is also a way to win.

Micron ($MU ) is currently around $832. It closed at 820 yesterday, and after-hours it ticked up slightly. From the June high of 1255, it has already fallen by more than 35%; last night it also dropped by nearly 9%.

In terms of operations, if it rebounds to around 915 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level), you can take a small short position. The target is around 710, with a stop-loss set at 920.

When the price drops to around 710, even if it isn’t necessarily the bottom, it will have entered a zone worth watching closely.

A big bombshell is here! Metaera co-founder publicly reports their own CEO Jessica! Here are the key points:

First, she claims she doesn’t take a salary, but in reality she secretly opened a card and had the finance department pay her living expenses monthly. Hong Kong rent, travel, transportation, and personal spending were all charged to the company—her personal expenses somehow became ME’s biggest expense category.

Second, an employee made over a million trading Trump meme coins and donated all of it to Project Hope. The co-founder thought it was a positive story and wanted to get free publicity by promoting it. However, the CEO turned around and held the employee accountable for “not highlighting the ME brand” and “creating a personal IP without approval.”

Ironically, at the same time, she demanded that her team heavily promote her attending Trump’s inauguration ceremony. Talk about perfect double standards.

After this Ethereum rebound, it’s basically over！！！

I warned about the risks last week, and over the past few days the reversal signals have become increasingly clear: the RSI has formed bearish divergences on two consecutive daily candles—this is a classic overbought top signal; between July 8 and July 27, a complete ending wedge formed. This pattern typically appears at the end of a trend, and once it’s finished, it usually means the rebound’s wave C has fully ended. After the wedge completed, yesterday’s sell-off showed a clear increase in volume—the selling pressure has started to take effect.

With these three signals stacking together, the conclusion that the rebound has ended is basically on point. I added short positions in the 1950–1970 range. $ETH

Trading talk—I only look at one core metric: “volume.”

Volume and capital are the internal driving forces that determine the direction of the trend; price is just the result. Take the recent Bitcoin走势 as an example: on the four-hour timeframe, bullish volume power shifted from strong to weak, shrinking all the way down to the floor volume. That indicates the buying momentum has basically dried up. Those “rebound” moves have no real foundation—if it goes up, it’s still fake.

On the other hand, bearish volume power has turned from weak to strong over the past two days. Naturally, the price has been kept pinned into choppy downward consolidation. Doesn’t that validate that volume power is the key to determining direction?

So, are there still opportunities to short later? Yes. If the price rebounds into the 64,200–64,500 range, you can consider entering a short, even though the risk-reward isn’t particularly ideal. For this downswing, the initial downside target is 62,500, then around 61,500. The extreme level is likely slightly above 60,000. $BTC

Hynix has released some big news: SK Group has signed a memorandum of intent with NVIDIA to carry out comprehensive cooperation on the scale of $500 billion, including “AI factories” and next-generation memory supply. For Hynix, this effectively locks in long-term orders from the world’s largest AI customer, and both HBM capacity utilization and profit visibility should improve significantly.

However, the realization timeline for this positive development is relatively long, so near-term sentiment support is limited.

On the chart, at today’s open the price dipped further to 1.707 million, then rebounded and closed at 1.816 million, moving above the area near the short-term supply line. The most important point is that today’s trading volume hit the lowest level since the adjustment on June 25. The test of the 1.69 million support level on lower volume suggests selling pressure is running out, and the probability of a breakdown is decreasing. If the price can break upward through the short-term supply line, the “spring effect” from July 14 can be confirmed.

But there are two hurdles ahead:

First, the Q2 earnings report on July 29. Some small articles in the market have been bearish on the performance in advance. If the earnings report delivers a rebuttal, it could boost confidence—but don’t get complacent, because even when Google and Intel beat expectations, their stocks still fell.

Second, the Federal Reserve decision in the early hours of July 30. If the Fed raises rates, it could curb cloud vendors’ AI spending, indirectly weighing on memory demand.

If Hynix can get through these two hurdles, it will test the resistance zone to the upside.

Where is today’s main battleground for meme coin “soil dogs”?

If you don’t have a direction, you might want to start by looking at Robinhood. Although the old “leading dragon” $CASHCAT has gone quiet, $STONKBROKER and $PONS have taken the baton steadily. With million-plus-capital pools, they’re consolidating at high levels, and can still slowly creep upward.

More importantly, every day on-chain, millions-level “little golden dogs” keep popping up. A few days ago it was $YOLO, $BRODIE, $JACKET; today it’s $KITTY and $CATE. Constant new listings are the core factor that keeps meme-coin players firmly welded to this chain.

It has a bit of the old BSC vibe—back then it was “I fuckin’ came,” with crazy wealth creation. Now Robinhood has already formed a base consensus in the meme sector. Whether or not there’s a single leading dragon, the playability is way ahead of other chains by several blocks.

$ESP Strong whales controlling the order book with a “妖币” (meme coin)—is it worth value investing?

ESP just broke above 0.07 and moved sideways before pushing up to 0.11—up 57%. But the top 10 addresses control 98.88%, the top 100 account for 99.87%, and the real circulating supply is only 14.5%. Price up/down depends entirely on the market-maker’s mood. It’s far more extreme than BANK (where the top 10 are only 42%).

There are also risks: the 10% airdropped in February is fully unlocked, and the team holds over 40% of the tokens with no lock-up—anytime they can dump the price. Pumping doesn’t need a reason, and dumping doesn’t need one either. The chart has already broken out; there’s another ~50% upside to the previous high of 0.2186. The first target is 0.13–0.14, with a pullback support zone at 0.095–0.10.

Strategy: After a 60% rise, chasing has a less favorable risk/reward ratio, but chasing a strong-whale coin might be the best way to get on board. If you want to be safer, wait for a pullback to 0.095–0.10 to enter again. Keep position sizing at 0.2–0.3%, set a stop-loss at 0.085, and targets at 0.13–0.14 and 0.18–0.20.

Remember: the top 10 addresses control 98.88%. If they want to dump, they can do it anytime. “Small position + stop-loss” is the only survival rule.

The market is really bad—back and forth, it’s still just those few places with a bit of movement.

No new-coin profit effect: Alpha hasn’t shown up with any decent new projects in a long time. Even when it does list one, it’s quiet and uneventful. The “hairy scalpers” can’t get anything, second-level liquidity has no room, and as soon as it launches, it keeps dropping. A couple of days ago a spot listing came up, and I even watched it closely, thinking it was rare to get something that could get pulled up—but it’s still been a steady grind lower.

Nobody follows the second-layer pump: I checked the order book—lots of projects are trying to pump, but the volume doesn’t pick up, and there’s nobody to follow. The market makers tried a couple of times, but once nobody picked up, they ran. A few strong players are still holding on, but compared with when the market is good, the volume is nowhere near the same level.

It’s only a few people having fun on-chain: Whether it’s Robinhood or Stable, every day you can still see who made tens of millions of U, but when you flip through it, it’s always the same few faces. Who are they making money from? Everyone knows—those people who aren’t speaking.

Agencies are dead: No new projects are launching, and KOLs who used to survive on taking ad work have no business now. Lately a lot of people have come to ask me if I have any work—I’ve got very little on my side too. A few projects that were originally planned to go live have all been postponed.

With the market this bad, costs and returns don’t match, so project teams also don’t want to keep burning money on it.

Trump continues to be tough; oil prices today directly broke through $100. The most straightforward method: when oil rises, go short. Set the liquidation price to $120. If you really want to “stick a pin,” then adjust to $130 for extra stability. I just don’t believe WTI can stay above $100 for too long.

As oil prices rise, the U.S. stock market has already started a major pullback. With less than three and a half months until the midterm election, I’d like to see how long Trump can stay hard.

Bitcoin’s performance is actually not bad. Even though it’s pulling back along with the U.S. stocks, its decline is smaller than the Nasdaq. I previously sold at 65,000 and felt a bit regretful, but now it looks like 63,000 could be a chance to buy back.

Tonight, Trump said he would take “unprecedented” measures to strike Iran. Next Monday, let’s see whether there’s another TACO incident. btc

SpaceX’s Starship is set to fly again tomorrow morning!

At 06:45 Beijing time on July 24, a 90-minute launch window will open. If it lifts off on time, approximately 39 minutes later there will be a second engine ignition test.

$SPCX is currently $115.26, down nearly 15% from its $135 offering price. If the mission succeeds, short-term sentiment will certainly rebound for a bit, but the real pressure comes next: the first quarterly earnings report on August 4, unlocking up to 20% starting August 6, and then additional batches unlocking around 7% each beginning August 20. The last batch of the year will unlock on December 8.

If the event happens, the price can rise, but there’s still significant overhead pressure before the unlocks. Starship success can boost sentiment; whether the trend actually turns depends on the earnings report and the newly circulating supply.

Let’s talk two more sentences $哈基米 . This coin is only for playing the first tier, and it clearly says to try with small capital.

Why do I bring it up? The setup really is good—after the breakout, there’s a pullback; the MACD daily clears the zero axis—these are textbook-level signals.

Even though the primary market doesn’t discuss candlestick charts, I play with technical analysis. If I don’t look at candlesticks, what else would I look at? Think of it as small-cap “lottery tickets”—what if it takes off? Judging from Bitcoin’s trend, a major move might really be coming. It’s also not impossible that a few explosive coins emerge on the BSC chain.

$BTC Last night it retraced from 66,956 down to 65,554. For two straight days, both the swing highs and swing lows have been moving lower. The consolidation range is drifting downward. But the pullback had no volume—this isn’t distribution, just rotation/turnover at the high. The rebound also had no volume, and the bulls are still hesitant. Both long and short are contracting volume and waiting for direction. The wedge is converging and closing in—an inflection is coming soon.

Key levels: Above 66,956 is near-term resistance. Below 65,500 is the current support. This market is consolidating and converging within the range of 65,500 to 67,000.

Strategy:

Option 1: Go long with a light position from 65,800 to 66,000, stop-loss at 65,300;

Option 2 (recommended): Wait for around 65,500 to see a hammer candle or a long lower-wick reversal/stop signal, then enter. Targets: 67,500 to 70,800. Stop-loss: 65,100;

Option 3: Only chase a long if price breaks above 67,000 on increased volume. Stop-loss: 66,200.

Trade direction is driven by logic—enter after candle confirmation. Let 65,500 hold first, let 67,000 break first; then we act.

Good news! Binance has finally launched the old-user bind-reassignment feature, so you don’t have to unsubscribe and start over.

The conditions are simple: complete KYC, you currently have no upstream inviter, and your trading volume in the 90 days before applying is no more than 5,000 USDT.

The process is also not complicated: click the link, enter my code 【JN188】. If your trading volume reaches 150,000 USDT within 30 days, it will automatically bind. After that, a permanent 20% rebate will be returned on spot and futures trading fees.

CZ has already been a billionaire—let’s not pay the platform extra fees. If there’s a rebate, then use the rebate!