Richie Bolar hgRE

Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have cooled significantly, with no key data available for reference before officials' meeting. On November 20, news emerged that the U.S. Labor Department would not release the October employment report, leading traders to anticipate that the Federal Reserve is more likely to pause interest rate cuts at the December policy meeting. After the Labor Department confirmed there was insufficient data to publish the report, a wave of selling occurred in the federal funds futures market. Traders reduced their expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 10 meeting. They now expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.75% to 4%. The swap market, which is linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate, is currently pricing in a rate cut of only 6 basis points for the December meeting, while the cumulative expected cut by January is only 19 basis points. Before Wednesday, the swap market was pricing in 11 basis points, suggesting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates within three weeks was about fifty-fifty. Leah Traub, portfolio manager at Lord Abbet, stated: "We have long known that there would be no unemployment rate data for October, but the November data will not be released until after the Federal Reserve meeting, which should be disappointing news for the market. Given the divergences within the Federal Open Market Committee, this reduces the likelihood of a rate cut.
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Insiders: The Trump administration is considering delaying the imposition of semiconductor tariffs
On November 20, according to Reuters, insiders revealed that U.S. officials privately indicated that they might not impose the long-promised semiconductor tariffs anytime soon, which could delay the core of Trump's economic agenda. Insiders stated that officials communicated this information to stakeholders in the government and private sector over the past few days. They claimed that the government is taking a more cautious approach. Trump had stated in August that the U.S. would impose tariffs of about 100% on imported semiconductors but would exempt companies that manufacture or commit to manufacturing in the U.S. Privately, in recent months, U.S. officials had told people that the government would soon roll out tariffs. However, as the government continues to debate timing and other details, this guidance has now changed. Nonetheless, insiders caution that any decision is not final until the government officially signs off, adding that triple-digit (100% or above) tariffs could be imposed at any time.

Insiders: The Trump administration is considering delaying the imposition of semiconductor tariffs
On November 20, according to Reuters, insiders revealed that U.S. officials privately indicated that they might not impose the long-promised semiconductor tariffs anytime soon, which could delay the core of Trump's economic agenda. Insiders stated that officials communicated this information to stakeholders in the government and private sector over the past few days. They claimed that the government is taking a more cautious approach. Trump had stated in August that the U.S. would impose tariffs of about 100% on imported semiconductors but would exempt companies that manufacture or commit to manufacturing in the U.S. Privately, in recent months, U.S. officials had told people that the government would soon roll out tariffs. However, as the government continues to debate timing and other details, this guidance has now changed. Nonetheless, insiders caution that any decision is not final until the government officially signs off, adding that triple-digit (100% or above) tariffs could be imposed at any time.

Cryptocurrency Circle 24-Hour Hotspots: Panic Valley and Regulatory Dawn

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has once again plunged into extreme panic, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 15, a new low in seven months.
Bitcoin (BTC) price plummeted by 4.5%, briefly falling below $89,000, wiping out the annual gains, with a total market value evaporating over $1.1 trillion.
Ethereum (ETH) maintained the $3,000 mark, but the Layer-2 ecosystem suffered a heavy blow with a 7% drop, and derivatives liquidations exceeded $350 million.
Market analysis attributes this to the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the liquidity crisis triggered by the government shutdown, with ETF net outflows approaching $3 billion, and Blackstone's IBIT setting a single-day record of $523 million outflow.
The X platform is hotly discussing the emergence of the “death cross,” with whales accelerating bottom fishing (wallets holding over 1,000 BTC increased by 2.2% to 1,384), but a selling wave from retail investors has emerged, with 150,000 people facing liquidation.
On the regulatory front, there is a turning point: the SEC's 2026 priority list has for the first time excluded crypto assets, shifting focus to AI and automated investments, seen as a “normalization” signal.
Institutional activities are frequent, with Kraken receiving a $200 million investment from Citadel, skyrocketing its valuation to $20 billion; Tether invests in Ledn to expand BTC lending, with loans exceeding $1 billion.
New Hampshire issued its first $100 million BTC-backed municipal bond, while MicroStrategy aggressively acquired 8,178 BTC ($835 million).
Ethereum promoted the Interop Layer (EIL) to unify the L2 experience; Fidelity launched the Solana ETF (FSOL) with staking features.
Despite the short-term support level at 92K being precarious, analysts view this as an “ugly bottom,” predicting a rebound to $112K by the end of November and potentially reaching a high of $150K by year-end.
Privacy coin Zcash surged by 28%, the TON ecosystem exploded, and meme coins led the rebound.
Amid macro weakness, Trump's tariffs and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes (today at 2PM ET) may become turning points, with the crypto “builder narrative” poised to gain momentum.

Cryptocurrency ETF: 24-hour Highlights - Panic Selling and New Stars Shining

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency ETF market has undergone dramatic changes, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 15, hitting a recent low, and institutional funds accelerating outflows.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded a single-day outflow of $523 million, totaling $1.425 billion over five days, with assets shrinking to $73 billion, dragging BTC below the $89,000 mark.
Ethereum ETF is also under pressure, with total outflows exceeding $370 million this month, and ETHA erasing most of its gains for 2025, leaving only a slight increase.
Analysts state that the Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks, the U.S. debt ceiling crisis, and the weakness in tech stocks have intensified risk aversion, with derivatives clearing exceeding $350 million.
X platform is abuzz with discussions about the 'ETF bubble burst', as gold prices have surpassed BTC's increase since the ETF's launch, leading to panic selling by retail investors.
The highlight is the altcoin ETF: 21Shares' Solana ETF (TSOL) launched today, with a fee of only 21 bps, and its opening AUM reached $100 million, while the Solana series has attracted a total of $2 billion.
The XRP ETF remains extremely popular, with Grayscale's spot XRP ETF set to launch on November 24, following Canary Capital XRPC's record of $250 million on its first day, and Bitwise's filing appearing in Bloomberg.
Despite XRP's price slightly dropping to $2.30, whales have increased long positions by $44 million.
On the regulatory side, the SEC has removed cryptocurrency from its priority list, shifting focus to AI, interpreted as a signal of 'normalization'.
Analysts predict this is the 'ugly bottom', with BTC rebounding to $112K by the end of November, and the XRP/SOL ETF potentially injecting $3 billion, reigniting the bull market by the end of the year.